GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1261
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... I think the people that think CT would have beat FF7 or OoT in a fair match are kidding themselves. CT looked great this contest, but it looked great exclusively against games that have reason to drop with the aging site and decreased votals. It beats FF7 easily. Ocarina though, yeah, CT would have gotten destroyed. http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/73059615/840496632 --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
UltimaterializerX posted a link quoting himself saying... CT was never close to 65% against Melee. It was at 61% when the rally kicked in. That's 61% at the end of SSBM's notorious Power Hour. I can't say if CT would have hit 65%, but it was about to wreck SSBM all night and registered voters suggested CT would win with ~64%. If FFX and SSBM are still near-equals, then that's another knock against CT only getting 61%. --- DpObliVion wins the contest and fills you with determination. My bracket had a bad time. |
Pretty
much, Melee almost has joke vote trends. I think the registered votes
data SBAllen provided is a good estimation, but really Chrono Trigger
could have finished between 61-65%. As for CT/OoT unrallied stats showed that CT was probably stronger. I'd still would have taken OoT in a direct match. --- Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the guru. |
I like how the adjusted x-stats have Wind Waker beating FFX. Then again Wind Waker consistently looked good while FFX consistently looked bad so whatevs. Some other hypothetical matches to ask who would win: Metroid Prime vs. Resident Evil 4 GTA: San Andreas vs. Perfect Dark Portal 2 vs. Half-Life 2 BioShock Infinite vs. Skyward Sword --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 12/30/2015 8:01:10 AM)report |
Wind Waker was probably slightly SFF by Majora's Mask in 2010. How much is a bit debated. FFVI does look a bit over adjusted, I'm not sure how it was adjusted --- Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the guru. |
I
dunno, Wind Waker still finished in the top 10 in the x-stats in GOTD,
and that was with Fallout 3's possible overperformance on Brawl
potentially overrating both it and Metroid Prime in the x-stats, meaning
WW would have been top 7 anyway. Admittedly yeah, Wind Waker did better against Final Fantasy VI than it did against Majora's Mask and there's no way Majora's Mask beats Final Fantasy VI unless you think Super Metroid does it. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
HaRRicH posted... UltimaterializerX posted a link quoting himself saying...CT was never close to 65% against Melee. It was at 61% when the rally kicked in. CT is also a very frontloaded game, and typically falls apart overnight and into the morning. I can't see the end result being too far off from the 61% it had at the end of the power hour. --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
But so is Melee --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
Based
on past trends I would have guessed CT ends with around 62%. Granted,
CT showed a remarkably bad very early vote the whole contest. From the
freeze to the end, CT rose nearly 5% against FFVI, fell only 1% against
FFX, and had already risen more than 3.5% against Melee in less than
half an hour. So it's possible that past trends, from when CT's early
vote was strong, would have undershot it. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
LordoftheMorons posted... But so is Melee Right, and when you have 2 games with similar trends you see less variation in the %age through the day. --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
Chrono Trigger's board vote was nothing special unless you want to argue that R&C, DQ8 and FFX all have good board votes. Meanwhile Melee fell 4% against Portal and 4.5% against Kingdom Hearts after the power hour (not board vote) and fell 3.5% against Pokemon GSC before the rally began. It's not hard to believe that CT would have had a higher percentage than what it had 30 minutes in. --- Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the guru. |
FF7
didn't seem god-slayer enough to stand up to CT, unless you think Smash
U would break 45% or so on FFX (and that's being generous concerning
SFF in CT/FFX). I still think that CT would've beaten OoT in the final
had it reached there due to momentum and anti-votes for the former
champion, though OoT is the stronger game and would probably win in
almost any other situation. --- Got wrecked in the Guru by the dastardly DpObliVion! |
charmander6000 posted... Chrono Trigger's board vote was nothing special unless you want to argue that R&C, DQ8 and FFX all have good board votes. Fair enough, but it wouldn't be an almost 5% difference from the end of the power hour to the end of the match. It would at most be 1% against a game with similar trends. --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
Melee and CT don't have similar trends. --- Leonhart posting from his phone |
Fair
enough, but it wouldn't be an almost 5% difference from the end of the
power hour to the end of the match. It would at most be 1% against a
game with similar trends. It'd probably be closer to 2-3%, that's why I'm fine with using the registered voters result of around 63% as the non-rallied result. --- Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the guru. |
Btw, does anyone know when/if the 1250+ stats stats topic will be archived ? |
Averia posted... Btw, does anyone know when/if the 1250+ stats stats topic will be archived ? Done: http://thengamer.com/stats/1251-1300/ --- My bracket got smashed by DpObliVion. Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the BGE15 Guru Contest! |
Eagerly awaiting the upcoming FF9 boost to propel Vivi over Link next contest (only to lose to Shovel Knight or whoever). --- Got wrecked in the Guru by the dastardly DpObliVion! |
Poor Link, hasn't won a contest in 4 years and hasn't won a real contest in 5 years. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
Update on game system ownership based on the last several days of polls: The 3DS increases its ownership up to 70.06%. It is the first time it breaks 70% ownership and it is only 2.08% away from tying the DS's highest ever ownership of 72.14%. I guess the 3DS has a chance to break that mark set by the DS, but I give it maybe a 50% chance of pulling it off. The Vita rises to 36.15% ownership, barely a 1% increase over the previous poll nearly 6 months ago. The Vita is really struggling hard, as its ownership at this point in its lifecycle is lower than what the PSP had after the same length of time. The PSP would ultimately break 50% ownership, but I don't think the Vita will ever reach 50% during its lifecycle. The PS4 increases its ownership up to 52.54%, which happens to be its largest increase in ownership between 2 consecutive polls. It is also well ahead of the PS3 at this point into its lifecycle and is also beating out the Wii U right now. The Xbox One is now up to 22.59% ownership, continuing the slow and steady trend of increasing its ownership. It's tough to say whether the Xbox One even has a chance of breaking the all-time highest ownership mark set by the original Xbox. The Wii U rises to 48.20% ownership, giving it less than a 4% increase in ownership over the past year. While I have no doubt the Wii U breaks 50% ownership someday, it won't come even close to the all-time highest mark set by the original Wii. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! (edited 12/31/2015 8:49:13 PM)report |
The GotY polls have officially started and the first poll will be for the PS4: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6197-best-of-2015-playstation-4 --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
Aw, no Life is Strange even though it made the contest. I hope it gets to show up in one of these polls --- "This place has a nice view of Hod. And also... I promised someone." - Asch, Tales of the Abyss |
Life
is Strange will probably show up in the PC and Xbox One polls, so it
should have 2 more chances to win a poll. In the PC poll, it will have
to deal with Undertale and the Witcher 3 again. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
These 4 games have an X-Stat value: Bloodborne - 20.38 Metal Gear Solid V - 21.49 Shovel Knight - 18.04 The Witcher 3 - 26.44 These 3 games share the same series: Batman: Arkham City - 24.14 Fallout 3 - 32.63 Fallout: New Vegas - 26.66 Bloodborne's X-Stat value should be pretty solid since FF12 and MM lined up with GotD stats. RE4's adjustment against SMRPG might need to be knocked down a bit since Witcher 3 looks pretty bad here. It might catch a rally later on, though. --- My bracket got smashed by DpObliVion. Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the BGE15 Guru Contest! |
Witcher 3 is the thing that needs to be knocked down. I'm still fairly certain it pulled in a few thousand rallied votes. --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
People who think CT gets 65% on Melee are trying to hold onto the FFX = Melee stuff. Melee got rallied for a reason. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
I'm surprised Bloodborne is winning so easily, I thought Fallout 4 would be at least giving it a fight. --- Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the guru. |
Good on Bloodborne. Deserves this result. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Bloodborne
definitely seems like the type of game that would have a very dedicated
fanbase and benefit from a ten way split over something like Fallout 4. --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
Also,
the other games (Witcher 3/Fallout 4/MGS5) are going to do naturally
worse here because they're multiplatfform releases and that's been
proven to affect how people vote for some reason when it comes to polls
like 'Best PS4 Game'. I'd be somewhat surprised if Bloodborne managed to
beat them again in the final, general GotY poll. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
That's what I was thinking, it'll be interesting in about a week or so... --- Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the guru. |
charmander6000 posted... I'm surprised Bloodborne is winning so easily, I thought Fallout 4 would be at least giving it a fight. I'm going to make an early prediction and say that Fallout 4 wins the Xbox One poll, while the Witcher 3 wins the PC poll (assuming no Undertale rally). It feels like Bloodborne was going to have an advantage in this poll being a PS4 exclusive over most of the other games which were multiplatform. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
Do people really think "oh, I played it on xbone instead of ps4 so I shouldn't vote for it"? >.> --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
Today's
poll has 1724 votes at the end of the first hour. I guess we're on
track for about 17000 to 19000 votes. If that's what the PS4 poll is
going to give us, most of the other polls should get less than 15000
votes (around what I was expecting). Only the PC poll has a chance to
beat out the PS4 poll in vote totals and that depends on whether
Undertale gets a rally. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
Man MGS5 is just s*** on this site. Remember how good 4 looked into GOTY polls? --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
LordoftheMorons posted... Do people really think "oh, I played it on xbone instead of ps4 so I shouldn't vote for it"? GTAV: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5375-best-of-2013-playstation-3 Vs. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5378-best-of-2013-xbox-360 It's weird, and it happens. Especially for exclusives like Bloodborne. It's literally the only reason to own a PS4 instead of a decent gaming PC right now. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Team Rocket Elite posted... Bloodborne's X-Stat value should be pretty solid since FF12 and MM lined up with GotD stats. RE4's adjustment against SMRPG might need to be knocked down a bit since Witcher 3 looks pretty bad here. It might catch a rally later on, though. For the record, I'd still go with Witcher 3 being overrated in the adjusted stats than RE4, probably due to some rally or whatever. If nothing else: 2010: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4177-west-division-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-paper-mario 2015: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6106-best-game-ever-day-14-resident-evil-4-vs-paper-mario I'd have a lot of trouble seeing RE4 being much weaker than MGS3, if at all. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
The
Witcher 3 and New Vegas (and for that matter GTAV and San Andreas)
should probably be bumped down a bit in the x-stats due to rallies. Also, if you assume RE4 > MGS3, then MGS2 breaks 45% on MGS3, meaning that the Metal Gear fanbase is more dronish than the Zelda fanbase (a more sensible explanation would likely be Metal Gear benefiting from name recognition more than anything else, the stats also imply MGS4 not being a whole lot weaker than 1-3, making V a HUGE outlier). --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
The
Witcher 3 has managed to turn things around somewhat after the early
vote where it had only 15.43% at the end of the Power Hour. Since then,
The Witcher 3 has gained almost 2.5% using its strong night vote so it
doesn't look quite as bad anymore. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
UltimaterializerX posted... People who think CT gets 65% on Melee are trying to hold onto the FFX = Melee stuff. Melee destroys FFX. But I do believe CT gets around 65% on Melee simply because Melee bleeds in % in just about every match and it was already getting 60-40'ed. --- Congratulations to DpObliVion, the 2k15 BGE Guru champ! |
UltimaterializerX posted... People who think CT gets 65% on Melee are trying to hold onto the FFX = Melee stuff. The only real person who would actually think that way is Leonhart and he's an FFX fanboy and will do anything to make FFX look like it's stronger than Melee. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
UltimaterializerX posted... People who think CT gets 65% on Melee are trying to hold onto the FFX = Melee stuff. Hey there false correlations But hey at least you've got a convenient excuse to let you think CT wasn't going to utterly destroy Melee before the rally. And whoa FFXII is stronger than I thought --- Leonhart posting from his phone |
65%
is more than 4% above where CT was when the rally began. It's not
FFVII! 62, probably, 63, maybe, 64, doubtful, 65%.....no. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
LeonhartFone posted... But hey at least you've got a convenient excuse to let you think CT wasn't going to utterly destroy Melee before the rally. Whoa whoa hey there, I don't deny this at all. It would have been a miracle had Melee broken 40%. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
Man, Fallout 4 and Witcher 3 are damn close right now. --- Got wrecked in the Guru by the dastardly DpObliVion! |
-LusterSoldier- posted... UltimaterializerX posted...People who think CT gets 65% on Melee are trying to hold onto the FFX = Melee stuff. Literally anything --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png My bracket got DP'd |
Can
I just say how much I hate how SB lines up these GotY polls? The
Fallout/Witcher/MGS5 triangle was heavily debated and now we see the
results already on Day One. ...and again in the PC poll. And again in
the ONE poll. And again in the Final poll. And if they're still close
there, maybe one last time in the FINAL Final poll with just the three
of them. We should go back to reserving PS4/ONE for console exclusives and running two multiplatform polls with the heavy hitters split up between them so there's still something to look forward to when everything's thrown together in the Finals. --- 2015 Champ Dp has one free invite to join yo and I on The Show next year! board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats |
I
said a long time ago that FFX wouldn't beat Melee but I've always
objected to the idea that there was significant distance between them. I
figured the KH2 match would have settled that but I guess not! --- Leonhart posting from his phone |
Let's finish this one off --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
Play Dragon Quest VI --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
