Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1183

#251 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/21/2013 1:37:39 PM | message detail
Looks like Link/Draven plowed through over eight and a half stat topics from here:
http://thengamer.com/stats/1101-1150/1142/Stats%20and%20Discussion%20Pt1142%20Pg9.htm#448
to here:
http://thengamer.com/stats/1151-1200/1151/Stats%20and%20Discussion%20Pt1151%20Pg5.htm#220
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#252 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/21/2013 2:08:28 PM | message detail
An epic match requires epic amount of posts it seems!That means that more than 4000 of posts were posted!Amazing!
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#253 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/21/2013 2:12:24 PM | message detail
Link vs Draven was like 8 topics.
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#254 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/21/2013 2:13:22 PM | message detail
I seem to remember Sonic/Crono managing quite a few
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Raytan did pretty well.
#255 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/21/2013 2:20:36 PM | message detail
Don't know about Link/Draven and don't want to check but as for Draven/Snake

Match started at the first page of 1174,and Snake/Link started at the 4th page of 1181
So that's 7 topics and 4 pages

If Link/Draven is really 8 than it holds the record
#256 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/21/2013 3:13:40 PM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
GTA IV got a lot of praise upon release... from the critics. Normal people and GTA fans found it disappointing (even if it is/was a technical marvel). I don't think GTA V will suffer the same backlash and will probably go down like San Andreas as a loved game.


GTAIV is ranked #37 in unikgamer's overall rankings, so I think it's pretty clear the game has a huge fanbase.

For the record, here's the area around where GTAIV is ranked in unikgamer's overall rankings:

32) Team Fortress 2
33) Final Fantasy VI
34) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
35) Half-Life
36) Super Metroid
37) Grand Theft Auto IV
38) Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
39) Diablo II
40) World of Warcraft
41) Halo: Combat Evolved
42) GoldenEye 007

It should be noted, however, that GTAIV was at #49 prior to a huge influx of new users in May.
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#257 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/21/2013 3:18:36 PM | message detail
GTA4 has got to be the best example of a company buying reviewers out.
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#258 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/21/2013 3:20:03 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
GTA4 has got to be the best example of a company buying reviewers out.


Exactly!
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#259 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/21/2013 8:19:34 PM | message detail
pirate109 posted...
Came in to say wow, the two ps4/xbone polls preceeding today's had almost identical vote totals.

Yep.


I think that's the closest you will ever get to having identical vote totals in back to back polls. There were 2 different occasions in which back to back polls had a 5 vote difference in vote totals, but that happened back in 1999 and 2000 when the vote totals were under 10000 votes for the large majority of the polls. There was also a 7 vote difference between poll 548 and 549, but those polls happened in 2001 in which both polls had slightly under 13000 votes.

The 9 vote difference between the previous 2 polls is the first time since 2001 that 2 polls have gone back to back with a vote difference under 10 votes.


On the extreme end of the spectrum, this is the largest "legitimate" vote difference between 2 back to back polls:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2725
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2726

66119 vote difference between the 2 polls. There were 2 other occasions where back to back polls had a larger vote difference than that, but they don't count due to poll glitches or other reasons.
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#260 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/21/2013 9:08:42 PM | message detail
Very terrible vote totals on today's poll so far. Yesterday's poll already had some pretty bad vote totals and we're already about 100 votes behind yesterday's poll at this point in time. Today's poll should end up with less than 30000 votes.
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#261 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/21/2013 11:01:31 PM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
charmander6000 posted...
GTA4 has got to be the best example of a company buying reviewers out.


Exactly!


Well...it's clear the game has many fans though.
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#262 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2013 4:33:26 AM | message detail
Took us about 7 1/2 hours to reach 10000 votes in today's poll. I guess we end up getting between 24000 and 27000 votes overall in this poll.
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#263 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/22/2013 1:50:07 PM | message detail
hey LMS

now that favslist is in public beta and set to replace unikgamer can you spam pointless statistics at us from that instead

It would be really great if you could stay current with your completely irrelevant information
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#264 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/22/2013 1:54:54 PM | message detail
Heavy vs Kefka who you got
#265 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/22/2013 3:04:47 PM | message detail
Heavy because Kefka
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#266 | paulg235 | Posted 9/22/2013 3:10:35 PM | message detail
Kefka because tf2 sucks in polls
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#267 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/22/2013 3:32:19 PM | message detail
Kefka even if paulg gives him a Lettuce Kefka pic.
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#268 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/22/2013 3:51:48 PM | message detail
That was a joke at LMS for thinking unikgamer list actually means anything
#269 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/22/2013 7:15:42 PM | message detail
Given how far Sephiroth has fallen and how competitive Tifa's remained, I actually genuinely wonder whether Tifa could beat Sephy now in a 1 v 1.

If you're *not* a fan of FFVII, aren't you voting for the attractive woman based on match pics? Or, anti-voting Sephiroth because he's a bigger name associated with Final Fantasy VII?
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#270 | Darkemaste | Posted 9/22/2013 7:34:41 PM | message detail | (edited)
DidYouMWISMe posted...
Given how far Sephiroth has fallen and how competitive Tifa's remained, I actually genuinely wonder whether Tifa could beat Sephy now in a 1 v 1.

If you're *not* a fan of FFVII, aren't you voting for the attractive woman based on match pics? Or, anti-voting Sephiroth because he's a bigger name associated with Final Fantasy VII?

I'm not really a FFVII fan myself, if it comes to someone from FFVII against characters from games I'm not particular a fan of, I'd just vote for the character I dislike the least. Not exactly an anti-vote, but meh.

That being said.......I loved FFVI; Kefka is one of my all time favorite villains. (mainly because he actually succeeds!)
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#271 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/22/2013 11:30:19 PM | message detail | (edited)
Nanis23 posted...
That was a joke at LMS for thinking unikgamer list actually means anything


...how does it not?

Well it doesn't for the purposes of GameFAQs popularity, fine. Otherwise?
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#272 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/23/2013 1:06:27 PM | message detail
Sephiroth is Tifa's absolute ceiling as far as I'm concerned. She had a ridiculously favorable setup in 2010 and couldn't crack 44% on him - likely falling a couple percent below that in a 24 hour match.

And even if she could be competitive with Sephiroth, she's still not on freakin' Cloud's level, which is Samus's biggest problem when it comes to that #3 spot. 53% on Mega Man could be chalked up as a fluke, but she also got 55% on Tifa. That doesn't leave much room at all for Cloud to squeeze in and seriously threaten to upend Samus. Also calls her indirect strength over Mario into question, though that's less relevant considering that most don't give her any shot at facing the plumber directly.
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#273 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/23/2013 1:49:15 PM | message detail
I joked about it a week or so back, but thinking about it more I'd really like to see Kefka vs. Sephiroth.

We've already seen Cloud barely be able to SFF Kefka back in 2007 when Cloud was still the clear #2 and Sephiroth did very poorly at SFFing people from his own game in 2010. Kefka should in theory hold up pretty well but I feel like something strange could happen due to the dynamic there. Kefka vs. Sephiroth was THE debate over best Final Fantasy villain back in the day and...probably still is, actually. Kefka shouldn't have any chance of winning but between some kind of FF Villain SFF (or rSFF!), Kefka's rise, and FFVII's drop, the percentages have a pretty wide potential range. Plus Kefka's board vote is one of the best and Sephiroth's is...not. Maybe Kefka can lead at the freeze!

It'd be fun.
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#274 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/23/2013 2:06:06 PM | message detail
I wonder what Crono would get on Kefka today. He got 79% back in 2003 when huge SFF blowouts were normal.
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#275 | Rymari | Posted 9/23/2013 2:13:43 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Heavy vs Kefka who you got


Kefka wins even with Lettuce as stated

sad though because Heavy loses again :/
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#276 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/23/2013 2:15:44 PM | message detail
Reading through old analysis crew topics reminded me of an anecdote from a few years ago.

Once I introduced the contest to a friend and (N64/GC) Nintendo fan. Of course I told him that Link won almost every year. We talked about Link/Mario matches, and how Link always won with 62%+. He expressed surprise. Not that Link always won, but that Link ONLY beat Mario with 62%. And then asked me what kind of person would vote for Mario over Link, because he couldn't imagine how a person would prefer Mario.

62% wasn't enough. Link being a better character than Mario was an objective truth to him, that demanded close to 100% of the voters to acknowledge it.

Anyway, my conclusion is: there's no more dronish fanbase than New Nintendo. This is borne out by the equality of the pokemon in strength, and by the tremendous SFF beatdowns that happen with N64/GC games, like OOT putting up 76% on SM64. Please note that since so much of Link/LoZ's support comes from Old Nintendo, which is among the least dronish fanbases, it ends up being not dronish as a whole.
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#277 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/23/2013 2:46:18 PM | message detail
Well but there was Twilight Princess struggling to break 63% on Mario Galaxy in Game of the Decade, and then doing a full 10% worse against the same game in the Game of the Generation poll (in spite of Twilight Princess getting the same percent on Brawl that it got in its Game of the Decade match).

Though yeah, I kinda feel like there's evidence for that on unikgamer as well. Not only is Ocarina of Time #1 there by a HUGE margin, but you have gems like this:

18) Shadow of the Colossus
19) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves
20) Mass Effect
21) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
22) Resident Evil 4
23) The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask
24) Final Fantasy X
25) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
26) Super Smash Bros. Brawl
27) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater
28) Super Mario Bros. 3
29) Pokemon Red/Blue
30) Assassin's Creed II
31) Team Fortress 2
32) Super Smash Bros. Melee
33) Final Fantasy VI
34) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
35) Half-Life
36) Super Metroid
37) Grand Theft Auto IV

Note how high the Zeldas and Smash Bros. games are. Also, Brawl > Mario 3. I wonder who here is going to get angry at that one.

Oh and further down:

39) Diablo II
40) World of Warcraft
41) Halo: Combat Evolved
42) GoldenEye 007
43) Batman: Arkham Asylum
44) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
45) Final Fantasy IX
46) Pokemon Gold/Silver
47) Super Mario Galaxy
48) The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind
49) Metroid Prime

Basically, another display of Zelda drones at work. It irritates me too even though I'm a huge fan of all those games. I think I often feel like I want to agree with Ulti and others who say that the Zelda series has sucked since Majora's Mask, then I actually go and play those games and find them to completely deserve their popularity. Wind Waker might even be my favorite game of all time.
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#278 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/23/2013 2:56:10 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Sephiroth is Tifa's absolute ceiling as far as I'm concerned. She had a ridiculously favorable setup in 2010 and couldn't crack 44% on him - likely falling a couple percent below that in a 24 hour match.

And even if she could be competitive with Sephiroth, she's still not on freakin' Cloud's level, which is Samus's biggest problem when it comes to that #3 spot. 53% on Mega Man could be chalked up as a fluke, but she also got 55% on Tifa. That doesn't leave much room at all for Cloud to squeeze in and seriously threaten to upend Samus. Also calls her indirect strength over Mario into question, though that's less relevant considering that most don't give her any shot at facing the plumber directly.


Oh yeah, I forgot that Tifa was overrated in the 2010 x-stats. That being said, she has "overperformed" against a Noble Niner three times now. I think it might as well be a trend.

The problem is that Samus only underperformed stat expectations against Tifa by 1%, which can be chalked up to a simple stat error until you realize that Tifa was overrated in the x-stats due to overperforming against Sephiroth.

Of course, you have to wonder if that's even true. Gordon Freeman pretty much did what was expected: he only underperformed stat expectations against Simon Belmont by 2%, and the reason for that one feels more like the stats just being a rough "guide" to me rather than Gordon dropping. Gordon also performed better against Leon than he did in 2005 despite him being fresh off of Half-Life 2 back then vs. not having been in a game for six years.

Of course, did Leon really do well? He *only* 63-37'd a weak character from his own series, and then got completely crushed in the final match. He underperformed stat expectations against Cloud by 6%, which is very bad in a contest where Final Fantasy VII characters have been flopping left and right. Strangely enough Leon actually overperformed by about 4% against Shadow, though I think we all accept that Sonic characters sucked this contest.

And as for the rest of Resident Evil, there's Jill Valentine doing worse against Mega Man than she did against Samus in 2010, only for Mega Man to lose to Samus later on anyway. Maybe Kratos leeched the mature character vote from her? Maybe Mega Man pulled off some sort of SFF on Jill? Who knows?

So I dunno, Big Daddy shows clear signs of being overrated while Gordon Freeman doesn't, and if you want to go further Yuri Lowell did about 10% better against Ryu than he did against Tifa in 2010. So who knows if Tifa really was overrated in the stats. I think it was just Big Daddy being on steroids in Round 3.
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#279 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/23/2013 4:36:05 PM | message detail
I feel like linking to it might violate the terms of use, but take a look at 9gag's top autocorrects of 2012. The second from the top fits amazingly with this contest.
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#280 | Haste_2 | Posted 9/23/2013 5:07:43 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
I joked about it a week or so back, but thinking about it more I'd really like to see Kefka vs. Sephiroth.

We've already seen Cloud barely be able to SFF Kefka back in 2007 when Cloud was still the clear #2 and Sephiroth did very poorly at SFFing people from his own game in 2010. Kefka should in theory hold up pretty well but I feel like something strange could happen due to the dynamic there. Kefka vs. Sephiroth was THE debate over best Final Fantasy villain back in the day and...probably still is, actually. Kefka shouldn't have any chance of winning but between some kind of FF Villain SFF (or rSFF!), Kefka's rise, and FFVII's drop, the percentages have a pretty wide potential range. Plus Kefka's board vote is one of the best and Sephiroth's is...not. Maybe Kefka can lead at the freeze!

It'd be fun.


If we ever have a 3/4-way contest again, I so badly want a poll with Cloud, Sephiroth, and Kefka in the same poll. It would be so satisfying.
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#281 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/23/2013 11:13:38 PM | message detail
Master Chief vs. Pac-Man, who wins?
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#282 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/24/2013 3:37:30 AM | message detail
I think MC but I am not sure. I do wonder why people don't like him though.
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#283 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/24/2013 4:53:00 AM | message detail
I'd bet on Master Chief, though considering those two characters a Pac-Man win wouldn't surprise me. I do think MC would sap a bit of Pac-Man's icon strength, though not enough to crush him.
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#284 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/24/2013 8:09:06 AM | message detail
Time to pitch a certain matchup I've been swirling around in my head for a bit...

(8) Sora (making his return from retirement!)
(9) Commander Shepard

...yeah, you can probably see where I'm going with this. <_<
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#285 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/24/2013 8:16:37 AM | message detail
It'll depend on how close we are to Kingdom Hearts III/how far we are since Mass Effect 3.
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#286 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/24/2013 8:18:07 AM | message detail
Sora did one percent better against Pikachu + Blue than Shepard did against Pikachu in 2010. Sora likely would've done a bit better than that against just Pikachu, but Shepard also probably increased.

Looks like a good match to me.
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#287 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/24/2013 8:19:28 AM | message detail
Go ahead and assume the match takes place today, for ease of analysis.

Not to mention that the comparison is a little more about a certain near-equal to Shepard~
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#288 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/24/2013 8:22:27 AM | message detail
I'll be arbitrary and say Sora wins 1v1, Shepard wins in multi-ways unless the other opponent is a ME character or a western protagonist like Drake or MC.
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#289 | Haste_2 | Posted 9/24/2013 9:50:06 AM | message detail
Sora, without too much trouble. I gotta give Pikachu the credit this year, for...obvious reasons.
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#290 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/24/2013 10:21:36 AM | message detail | (edited)
Even before Pikachu Sora was pretty bad. Scorpion almost got 43% on him, which makes it even worse if you consider that Sub-Zero was likely weaker this year.

Then again Shepard did go equal with Aerith and if she's weaker due to the FFVII deboost then Sora probably still has this.
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#291 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/24/2013 1:35:32 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I think MC but I am not sure. I do wonder why people don't like him though.


Halo used to get loads of anti-votes just for being a popular series in a genre this site didn't care for. Now I honestly have a feeling that the anti-votes have died down significantly due to Halo no longer being the big name in its own genre, but that that very same factor also did even more to murder Master Chief's contest strength.

It also used to (maybe still is?) cool to call Halo an overrated game, in similar fashion to Final Fantasy VII.
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#292 | Qwaar | Posted 9/24/2013 1:41:29 PM | message detail
Any announcement on who got the rewards yet, or did I miss it?
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#293 | Haste_2 | Posted 9/24/2013 2:45:38 PM | message detail
I think Sub-Zero and Scorp are pretty close in popularity... or, maybe not. If you assume Scorp gets 47% on Subby, Bowser vs. Sora is projected the same result as in 2010. Also, I would estimate Sora gets 43% on Pikachu taking Blue out of the picture, which makes him look no weaker than in 2010, unless you think Crono dropped, as well.

Nevertheless Sora's R1 performance can only count against him.
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#294 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/24/2013 3:55:34 PM | message detail
Crono's 2010 value is... very optimistic for him. Regardless, Sub-Zero's always been more than a few steps ahead of Scorpion. Pre-KH2 Auron scored 65% on Scorpion, Post-KH2 Auron failed to crack 60% on Sub-Zero.

I can theoretically buy Sub-Zero/Scorpion going 53-47 indirectly, but that's about the maximum I'm willing to allow for Scorpion.
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#295 | Haste_2 | Posted 9/24/2013 8:50:12 PM | message detail
I would put a 47% ceiling for Scorpion myself. Well, maybe 48%.

Sub scoring 58-59% on Scorp, though? Nah. The Auron/Scorp and Auron/Subby matches were two years apart, and I'm thinking Mortal Kombat gained during that time. In 2007, both Subby and Scorp had consistent performances between R2 and R3. Scorp actually looked better. Not that I think it's accurate (Sub-Zero looked better in 2008 by a bigger margin), but it suggests to me that Scorp gained some strength himself.
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raytan stole my sig 'cause he's awesome at predicting GameFAQs contests! Grrrrrrr, I will get my revenge!
#296 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/24/2013 8:59:05 PM | message detail
Ooh, I wouldn't give Scorpion nearly that amount credit over Sub-Zero in 2007. The deck was stacked against the latter - consider!:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2894
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2910

Sub-Zero got 45% on Sonic in R1, an absolutely stellar showing that Scorpion's 34% on a Midna-leeched Samus can't compare to. So, what changed between R1 and R2? Sonic got announced for SSBB - and while that boost has proven quite ephemeral, it was certainly very real to Sub-Zero.

Obviously the extent of differences can be debated here, but I don't think many people could envision Scorpion putting up 45%+ on Sonic.
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#297 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/25/2013 3:04:48 AM | message detail
SUCH AN ACTIVE TOPIC NOW
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#298 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/25/2013 4:24:50 AM | message detail
We could always adjust the x-stats based on unikgamer ratings. I'm sure that would get some conversation going!

Plus they'd still be more accurate than our current x-stats!
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Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4!
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#299 | SuperNiceDog | Posted 9/25/2013 9:51:10 AM | message detail
Anyone here a fan of "The Show"? Who do you think is the best "The Show" guest ever?

http://www.bracketmaker.com/tmenu.cfm?edit=1&tid=448474&tclass=BTSGE%20Fall%202013

I'm trying to organize a tournament to find out. 1v1, 32 entrants, double elimination, 24-hour polls.

Also, I'm making highlights of each guests best quotes from their appearance. I've done one guest so far, 1) ExthaNemesis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOgBs5blwZI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1

Possibly getting started in late October 2013. Feel free to make predictions.
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Raytan wins!
#300 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/25/2013 9:55:12 AM | message detail
You have to remove the edit=1& for other people to see it.
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