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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1030

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#51 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2011 8:48:04 AM | message detail
But as you can see CJayC tried to hide them with her name.
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#52 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 12/6/2011 8:50:11 AM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
Oh wow, this is actually kinda close. I kinda had a feeling X/Zero would look bad here but forgot to lower my oracle, oops.

Not sure how much of this is Sub/Scorp being strong and how much is just X/Zero not being that great. I can't put much stock into beating up Black Shadow and FFV, and honestly I don't see DK.Rool being that great.

X/Zero probably do respectably on Mariowser next round, but I don't think this is necessarily a good sign for the fighters tomorrow, especially if you're like me and would take the trainers over X/Zero.


Man, I STILL have no idea why people are so confident in the Trainers. We have seen literally NOTHING to imply they would beat X/Zero. Does anyone seriously take Luigi/Waluigi over Bartz/Gilgamesh or Captain Falcon?
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#53 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2011 8:51:33 AM | message detail
I would, though Luigi/Waluigi was SFF so it doesn't change much.
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#54 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 8:51:40 AM | message detail

From: Wii_TuRtLe | #052
Does anyone seriously take Luigi/Waluigi over Bartz/Gilgamesh or Captain Falcon?


If you want to take Bartz/Gilgamesh over Cecil/Golbez, go ahead.

But people getting confident in the Trainers over Luigi/Waluigi are confident for the wrong reason, I think. It's an obvious SFF match, and I doubt Cecil/Golbez is a very strong rivalry. I think Yuna/Seymour could probably match them.
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#55 | The Mana Sword | Posted 12/6/2011 8:52:23 AM | message detail
I'd take Gilgamesh over Link.
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#56 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 12/6/2011 8:55:42 AM | message detail
Let me rephrase that, does anyone take the SFF'd Luigi/Waluigi over them? I don't think there's too much difference between Bartz/Gilgy and Cecil/Golbez, and I would think that Ryu/Ken are pretty close to X/Zero (at the very least matching Subby/Scorp.
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#57 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2011 8:58:36 AM | message detail
I think a better comparison would be would Ratchet/Dr. Nefarious break 39.80% on Kerrigan/Raynor?
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#58 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:01:13 AM | message detail
Nah, fodder/fodder comparisons are not good comparisons, usually.
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#59 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/6/2011 9:02:57 AM | message detail
Well I said last night that if the Ninjas finish over 47% here, the Fighters should be the favorites... and it'll look like they'll do just that. Hard to see the Fighters not being able to win if the Ninjas can do this to X.
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#60 | vcharon | Posted 12/6/2011 9:05:45 AM | message detail
Dreams are going to be shattered tonight.
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#61 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:05:52 AM | message detail
Speaking of, 47% breached.
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#62 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:07:56 AM | message detail
Anyone who takes Bartz/Gilgamesh to not get crushed by every FF duo in this contest is either insane or Kleenex. They failed to double Guybrush in a day match then finished less than 3% better than F-Zero. I'd struggle to take them over Lightning/Whoever That Other Person was, and I'd take Balthier/Dr. Cid over them without a second thought.

And on the fodder comparison, Ada Wong vs. Frog, who do you take?







If you took Frog, you better have taken Dante to stomp Ryu after the first round last character battle!

(This is partially based on 4-ways, but still serves as proof as to why fodder comparisons are awful)
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#63 | White_Tiger | Posted 12/6/2011 9:09:47 AM | message detail
Trainers will probably get 53-54% on Ryu/Ken

a lot will be disappointed lol
#64 | TRE Public Account | Posted 12/6/2011 9:10:26 AM | message detail
Man, I STILL have no idea why people are so confident in the Trainers. We have seen literally NOTHING to imply they would beat X/Zero. Does anyone seriously take Luigi/Waluigi over Bartz/Gilgamesh or Captain Falcon?

http://thengamer.com/stats/1001-1050/1022/Stats%20and%20Discussion%20Pt1022%20Pg8.htm

I got the wrong post number last time. See post 385. Just 2 weeks ago you thought Red/Blue were on the level of X/Zero. Why are you so opposed to the idea now?
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#65 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:11:17 AM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #062
And on the fodder comparison, Ada Wong vs. Frog, who do you take?







If you took Frog, you better have taken Dante to stomp Ryu after the first round last character battle!


More like Balthier vs. Axel who do you take
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#66 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:12:56 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: WarThaNemesis2 | #062
And on the fodder comparison, Ada Wong vs. Frog, who do you take?







If you took Frog, you better have taken Dante to stomp Ryu after the first round last character battle!
More like Balthier vs. Axel who do you take


Balthier/Axel promotes the 'well they're probably close' argument. Ada smacked Balthier around while Frog miracled his ass past Axel, so if you take Frog you're 'wrong' beyond X-Stat Redemption!
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#67 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:13:33 AM | message detail
Axel also promotes the idea that Dante could beat Mega Man

What a guy
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#68 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:14:15 AM | message detail
Where some characters exist to have great matches, some exist to choke, Axel exists to make statheads cry.
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#69 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:15:01 AM | message detail
When Axel cries "BURN BABY" he is referring to your bracket
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#70 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:16:44 AM | message detail
No if he was burning your bracket he'd win something. He burns your battle challenge and Oracle.

And at this point, what I expect is we'll know the outcome of Trainers/Fighters very quickly. Either Ryu/Ken will be pulling away/close real quick, or Red/Blue will get a big enough early lead that Ryu/Ken won't have enough time to do anything significant before the morning vote kills them.
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#71 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:17:15 AM | message detail
5 straight cuts for the Ninjas

Excellent

Never you mind that those 5 cuts total 28 votes, never you mind
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#72 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:17:57 AM | message detail
#73 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/6/2011 9:19:30 AM | message detail
X/Zero was very overrated by people on this board.
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#74 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/6/2011 9:21:13 AM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
X/Zero was very overrated by people on this board.

Are they? Both characters are strong and have a well known rivalry. Theres only so weak they can be.
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#75 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:21:16 AM | message detail
It may have been, but this is still a pretty impressive performance for the MK Ninjas nonetheless. They've put up some numbers together that they wouldn't have put up individually.
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#76 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:21:50 AM | message detail
There's the sixth straight cut, yessssssss
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#77 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:23:38 AM | message detail
Trainers are going to start with a massive lead, Ryu/Ken could have 45% at the freeze and still win.
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#78 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:25:25 AM | message detail
What the percentage is at the end of the first hour will tell us more than what the percentage is after five minutes.
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#79 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:27:06 AM | message detail
Red had 54.63% at the freeze against Ocelot and 52.36% at the one hour mark. Those seem like decent marks for the Trainers to reach for.
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#80 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/6/2011 9:32:11 AM | message detail | (edited)
Someone tell me honestly: Why is there so much more hype for the Trainers now then pre contest? I know a lot of people liked them to win then, but Fighters were still favorites... now it seems like nobody gives the Fighters a chance. Is tripling a Starcraft duo and beating the worst anchor in the contest in a SFF match really that impressive? Does the Starcraft duo even beat Ratchets duo? I'm not sure.
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#81 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:28:21 AM | message detail
Because they shocked the crap out of everyone against Luigi/Waluigi far beyond expectation.

Though that match says about as much about Waluigi as it does about the Trainers.
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#82 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:29:57 AM | message detail
Doubling? They tripled the Starcraft duo with room to spare. And honestly, if Ratchet lost whatever boost he pulled off last contest, Kerrigan/Raynor probably crush the Ratchet pair.
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#83 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:30:50 AM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #082
And honestly, if Ratchet lost whatever boost he pulled off last contest, Kerrigan/Raynor probably crush the Ratchet pair.


Why are we taking Kerrigan to crush anything

and why would Ratchet lose that boost

That boost probably comes from the PS3 games being more popular on this site than the PS2 ones
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#84 | pjbasis | Posted 12/6/2011 9:31:58 AM | message detail
Wouldn't have expected Ninjas to make it this close.

DK must really have risen, or K. Rool is actually pretty decent.

I seem to remember Ridley and K. Rool being among the top of characters people wanted that didn't make it in Brawl.
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#85 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:32:02 AM | message detail
8 straight cuts for the Ninjas, by the way.

They might actually win this hour!
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#86 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:34:00 AM | message detail
In terms of this topic trainers are the loud minority and should we actually poll everyone in here I think more people think Ryu and Ken are going to win.
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#87 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:34:33 AM | message detail
I don't think anyone excepted this close match.Less than 53% from X?Seems Mortal Kombat 9 boosted the Ninjas a lot.
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#88 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/6/2011 9:36:23 AM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Doubling? They tripled the Starcraft duo with room to spare. And honestly, if Ratchet lost whatever boost he pulled off last contest, Kerrigan/Raynor probably crush the Ratchet pair.

Oh my bad, I typoed. But this first round was nothing but blowouts. Why didn't people go crazy and start calling Terra/Kefka out to be elites when they did better on Vyse? I'd take Vyse to beat Kerrigan, or at least make it close!

The first round match doesn't really help their case at all, leaving a SFF match which is really unreliable in determining strength. Honestly nothing they've shown me makes me think the Fighters are in major trouble.
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#89 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:36:31 AM | message detail
A quick look at the Oracle seems to indicate that the Trainers are slight favorites, but a lot of people who are picking the Trainers are picking them to win big. People picking Ryu/Ken are expecting a close match.
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#90 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:37:09 AM | message detail
Darn, the cut streak was snapped.

They can still win the hour though!
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#91 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:38:15 AM | message detail
A quick look at the Oracle seems to indicate that the Trainers are slight favorites, but a lot of people who are picking the Trainers are picking them to win big. People picking Ryu/Ken are expecting a close match.

Reminds me a bit of Red/Ocelot
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#92 | GranzonEx | Posted 12/6/2011 9:40:30 AM | message detail
People were expecting Red to do big things last time? I glanced over his name on the bracket and never looked back.
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#93 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:41:21 AM | message detail
A few people took Red to round three, but most people had him either losing to Ocelot or losing to MMX.
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#94 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:42:45 AM | message detail
I remember the Red > MMX discussions, good times.
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#95 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:46:38 AM | message detail
I honestly don't know why Ratchet would lose the boost, OLD FACTOR maybe? Enough characters from actually popular recent games on this site have disappointed that Ratchet/Nefarious could have fallen that much harder. Kratos, Leon, Tidus/Jecht, Shepard all have looked real real bad, the latter two even worse than their first rounds implied. I mean, in no way should we come close to assuming Trainers crush Ryu/Ken because Starcraft duo > Ratchet duo, but well, once again, comparing performances on obvious trash is real real bad.
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#96 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 12/6/2011 9:50:32 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Because they shocked the crap out of everyone against Luigi/Waluigi far beyond expectation.

Though that match says about as much about Waluigi as it does about the Trainers.


You know who else shocked everyone far beyond expectation (except for me who got the Oracle point for it)? Mega Man vs. Ryu Hayabusa. He won so badly that people were honestly taking him over Mario the next round. He ended up getting his ass kicked.

People on the board tend to put too much faith in overperformances, and I think the pre-contest expectations are a better judgement in this case, given how unreliable those results are.
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Game of the Decade? More like Guru of the Decade mirite?
#97 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:52:24 AM | message detail
Wasn't that just KP, and then everyone yelled at him that Mega Man was going to get 60-40'd, then KP got mad everyone wasn't hyping a dumb upset?
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#98 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:53:37 AM | message detail
I know it's not always the best indication of strength, but a good bit of my confidence in the trainers comes from the fact that they've been huge vote draws. And if the trainers can SFF Luigi to that extent, that probably means the Nintendo faithful really likes them, at the least.
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#99 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2011 9:53:49 AM | message detail
There were actually 29 people in the Guru who took Red > MMX!
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#100 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/6/2011 9:54:38 AM | message detail
For Fighters/Trainers I believe the winner will have less then 53%.Or at least less than 55%.Now for whom wins...If Trainers have Charizard/Blastoise then them,otherwise Fighters.
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