Contest and Stats Discussion - Part 1385

Considering Doom still gets new games, Doom Slayer might actually wreck havoc in the right spot. Shame we've never seen him.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5163-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-spyro-vs-clementine

This was one of the most debated round one matches in the contest. Spyro only had a 3 pick advantage over Clementine in the Guru (and some people picked Reyn, too). The logic for picking Spyro was simple. He was easily the most well-known character in the poll.

The logic for picking Clementine (or Reyn) made sense, too. Spyro had been utterly pathetic every time we'd seen him before now, and on top of that, he was kind of a shell of himself because he had been thrown into Skylanders, making him even more kiddy than he had before. Also, at this time, Walking Dead was probably at the peak of its popularity (and Xenoblade had performed well in our GotY polls).

However, between 2010 and 2013, something happened that we couldn't have accounted for or predicted. Suddenly those Playstation platforming mascots who had been so pathetic in previous contests were now nostalgia acts, and we love nostalgia. As such, Spyro won this match in dominating fashion, and B8 made a lot of Reyn time jokes, too. Poor Clementine. RacistFAQs strikes again.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2442-hyrule-division-semifinal-pokemon-vs-metroid

Nobody thought much of this match, even after Pokémon's impressive showing in round one. The Oracle average for Metroid was a doubling. The match started, and it was close. People chalked it up to the board vote, but as the match went along, Metroid just couldn't increase its percentage even as it gradually increased its lead. The percentages were oddly stable the entire match, too. Pokémon never threatened to win, but it never went away either. At this point, the conclusion was either Metroid was a lot weaker than we expected or Pokémon was now legit.

I wonder how Pokémon would do in a Series Contest now. It's one of those weird cases where the fanbase is divided between old entries and newer entries, and both sides hate each other. I'm sure it'd still be plenty strong, but I do wonder if that impacts how high its ceiling would be.

Leonhart4 posted...

It's one of those weird cases where the fanbase is divided between old entries and newer entries

for some reason I think it's only FF that people start to think about how many games they like and don't like in the series.

Pokemon fans will just vote for it if they like the new ones OR if they're nostalgic.

Yeah I don't think that would hurt it.

I feel like I'd take Pokemon in that matchup now.

I think it'd still be close. Samus Returns & Dread were well received, even if Prime 4 wasn't. Mainline Pokemon games have been putting off fans, but the Legends spinoffs and now Pokopia are popular. I might pick Pokemon.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5164-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-luigi-vs-balthier-vs

Not much to say about this one. Luigi dominated and Balthier couldn't even double Jade, yikes.

By the way, Beyond Good & Evil 2 was announced 18 years ago. The last time we saw anything about it was 9 years ago. 2 years ago, Ubisoft claimed it was still in development, so it has now surpassed Duke Nukem Forever for the longest development cycle for a AAA game.

I wonder if ashe would do appreciably worse

Seanchan posted...

I feel like I'd take Pokemon in that matchup now.

No hesitation

To be fair, I believe the old/new fanbase divide Leon mentioned is why RBY failed to successfully counter-rally against Undertale. I would tend to agree that wouldn't matter much in a scenario sans major rallies on a site with a voterbase as old as ours though.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5165-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-big-boss-vs-peac***

Boy, what a match. We have Venom Snake getting 75% off of MGSV hype and getting to face Peac*** (of Skullgirls fame) and Captain Viridian (of VVVVVV fame). Was there another match in the contest where 2nd place got a lower percentage than this?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2443-snake-division-semifinal-metal-gear-vs-fire-emblem



The Oracle average for Metal Gear was just under 74% here, but come on, what the heck is that? That's gotta be in contention for the most unrecognizable match picture ever, on both sides. We knew Metal Gear was the weak link of the four 1 seeds by a lot, but failing to double Fire Emblem was viewed as a really bad performance. Still, look at that match pic. That's rough.

Who are the Metal Gear characters in that image?

TeamRocketElite posted...

Who are the Metal Gear characters in that image?

The brown ones.

I know I'm jumping ahead here, but looking at what Kingdom Hearts did on Metal Gear compared to Fire Emblem, the two series were surprisingly close in strength at the time! Considering that Kingdom Hearts was likely at the peak of its strength following KHII, and that Fire Emblem was still in its dork phase and hadn't released Awakening, could Fire Emblem actually win that match these days?

MetalmindStats posted...

To be fair, I believe the old/new fanbase divide Leon mentioned is why RBY failed to successfully counter-rally against Undertale. I would tend to agree that wouldn't matter much in a scenario sans major rallies on a site with a voterbase as old as ours though.

It managed to rally big time regardless, the subreddit was effective, but spent too early. It was tweets later in the match that didn't work.

But point is, in a series contest it's under the same banner.

Xstats say KH would have gotten 58.3% on FE back then, and any wonkiness was probably in FE's favor given the Metal Gear picture.

KH also was barely a "real" series back then (KH1, CoM, KH2).

Fire Emblem could absolutely win a match today if not very easily. Kingdom Hearts has gotten progressively weaker with every contest and Square hasn't released a universally liked Kingdom Hearts title in 20 years. Fire Emblem is a much known and familiar property in recent years than it was in the 2000s and a series vs series match would help Fire Emblem's chances even more than a match between any FE game against KH1 or KH2.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5166-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-cats-vs-ness-vs-locke

The most notable thing about this match is that it's the last contest appearance for CATS since he didn't make the 2018 field. Ness was the easy winner here. It was nice to see Locke make the field, but he had no good pictures (at this point, maybe he'd do better now that he's been in Dissidia), so he was at an even greater disadvantage.

Also I'm going to be out of town for a few days so my updates might be sporadic, but I will try to get them done at some point during the day.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5167-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-elizabeth-vs-poison

This was back when people liked Bioshock Infinite, so it got two characters in. Elizabeth was the big favorite to win here. The question was who would finish second. Thrall was a known commodity, but he was weak. Poison used to be a Final Fight rando, but they had recently made her a playable fighter in SFIV. Also she has TJF, so in the end, she finished closer to Elizabeth than she did to Thrall.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2444-snake-division-semifinal-castlevania-vs-kindgom-hearts

Looking back, this was probably the best match of the contest. Kingdom Hearts was the favorite going into it, but Castlevania had gained some supporters after its win over Halo. KH had the lead at the freeze, but Castlevania took over from there and built up almost a 1200 vote lead nine hours in.

Then Kingdom Hearts did what Halo couldn't and used the day vote to overwhelm Castlevania, completing the comeback in three and a half hours. Ultimately it won by 3400 votes for a 4600 vote vote swing, one of the biggest in contest history.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5168-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-kirby-vs-terra-vs

Obviously it's hard to get a clear read from this match because of the LFF between Kirby and Peach, but this was a solid showing for Terra. 2010 had demonstrated what Dissidia giving usable artwork for the older FF characters could do for them, and that trend continued in this contest. This match also showed that Peach is possibly one of those characters who folds hard against a stronger Nintendo character.

By the way, this might be the pinkest match ever.

Peach looked better than ever in 2018 so who knows where she was this year.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5169-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-wheatley-vs-crash-vs

This was one of my big upset specials (along with yoblazer). I'm pretty sure we both stumped for this one on the pre-contest episode of The Show. Wheatley was the big favorite because Portal 2 was still relatively new. Looking at how Crash performed in 2018, this honestly isn't too bad of a showing for Wheatley, but he'd probably be terrible now. He didn't have the staying power of GlaDOS.

Also speaking of terrible, yikes at Tommy Vercetti getting doubled by Crash. I mentioned in the Warcraft/GTA match that it was a turning point for the series, but this might have been the nadir.

On a funny note, a lot of people were celebrating this as Crash's first contest win, forgetting (and why would you remember) that he had beaten Ulala in the very first contest.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2445-mushroom-division-semifinal-super-mario-bros-vs-warcraft

The Oracle average was a little under 74% for Mario, but it blew past that with no problems. People tried to rally Warcraft, only to get a lot of "It's freakin' Mario!" type responses, so that one backfired.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5170-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-solid-snake-vs-isaac

After Link and Sephiroth put up relative duds in their opening matches, Solid Snake put up a strong showing in his contest opener. For those who had him winning the whole thing, this was a solid (pun intended) start.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5171-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-alucard-vs-falcon-vs

When we last saw Alucard and Captain Falcon in 2010, they were pretty close in strength. The key factor was that this was a night match, which caused most people to lean in Alucard's favor. However, Captain Falcon used the Nintendo Power Hour to get off to a fast start. Usually there's a clear drop-off when the Power Hour ends, but Falcon kept going up, peaking at around a 500 vote lead around 3 hours in.

Alucard began his move, but we thought, even if he did take the lead, he wouldn't be able to weather the morning vote. Yet when the morning vote came, Alucard didn't stop. He managed to take the lead with only three hours left. It wasn't until the last 15 minutes that he was able to get over 100 votes, but he held on for a wild win that defied our usual trends.

There have been a lot of classic matches that have gone down to the wire, but I feel like this one gets forgotten. I don't ever hear anyone talk about this one as a classic. Also Rydia did really well despite finishing third.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2446-mushroom-division-semifinal-sonic-the-hedgehog-vs-super



Frankly, it was kinda ridiculous that Smash got three classic sprites that aren't from the series for this match. It probably wins anyway because Brawl hype was insane, but it didn't need an additional unfair advantage here. The fact that this was the most notable thing about this match tells you how easy of a win it was for Smash.

I feel like smash as a series wouldn't even be that much stronger today, if at all tbh

Sonic seems like it could be weaker nowadays

pjbasis posted...

I feel like smash as a series wouldn't even be that much stronger today, if at all tbh

Pre-Ultimate I would've said it was weaker. Brawl hype really did mean that much back in the day. Ultimate has given fans a universally liked game to champion though, after Brawl and Smash 4 were more divisive.

MacArrowny posted...

Sonic seems like it could be weaker nowadays

I dunno, Sonic has rebounded a good bit since 2006. Dunno how much that plus the movies would help it though.

This is before Sonic 06 came out, right? Sonic wasn't even known for bad games back then.

Sonic's reputation just before Sonic 06 was in a bit of a decline, though. It's not like people were speaking great things about Sonic Heroes, Shadow The Hedgehog, or Sonic Riders.

Sonic 06 was also billed/advertised to people as a game to restore the franchise to its glory days. It ended up turning the franchise into low hanging fruit to dunk on which only got worse with Unleashed and Knight of the Wind.

Sure, I'm just saying the games weren't yet a total joke.

Eh, people were already making Sonic Cycle jokes before Sonic 2006. They just went full tilt after that.

At the very least, I don't think Sonic is worse now than it was then.

If you think Alucard and Witcher 3 were both boosted by their Netflix releases, I do think the Sonic Movies are good enough to at least make Sonic not a complete joke of a Noble Niner too

Sonic is definitely in a better spot than it was in the mid-late 2000s or early 2010s. The movies have done a lot of good in helping restoring Sonic's popularity and there's been enough good games in the past decade that it has helped shake off that bad reputation (Mania, Shadow Generations, Frontiers, Colors Ultimate, Racing: Crossworlds). Not to mention, mocking Sonic games has gotten old for a lot of people. The last Sonic game that was mocked was probably Sonic Forces and that was 9 years ago.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5172-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-bayonetta-vs-n-vs

There was a little bit of N hype coming into this one. I remember him being talked up as like the deepest character Pokémon has ever had or something, like it's some high bar to clear. 25% of Gurus had N winning, but the other 75% were laughing all the way to the bank as Bayonetta dominated. Also poor Wander is the least photogenic character ever. He has no good pictures.

Leonhart4 posted...

Also poor Wander is the least photogenic character ever. He has no good pictures.

No good pictures, and his name isn't even mentioned in his own game. 'The Guy From Shadow of the Colossus' would probably do better!

The horse would probably do better!

I think Colors was the game where Sonic started to turn around. It was the first game in a while that didn't try a convoluted storyline or dumb gimmicks like the wolfhog. Just a lighthearted game with fun levels.

There have still been misfires (Boom, Lost World, Forces), but Generations, Mania, and Frontiers have helped him along with the movies.

They've had multiple successful shows too

It's a good time to be a Sonic fan for the most part these days

Sonic Boom: Rise of the Lyric almost derailed Sonic's turnaround and brought the franchise back into scrutiny. That game is almost as bad (if not worse) than Sonic 06.

Maybe, but '06 was supposed to be a return to form that wound up being a laughingstock. Boom didn't have the same expectations - it was just a bad game.

paulg235 posted...

The last Sonic game that was mocked was probably Sonic Forces and that was 9 years ago.

Superstars got mocked pretty hard.

I feel like Sonic is in a good place because Superstars was bad and nobody really cared. It came and went.

Leonhart4 posted...

I feel like Sonic is in a good place because Superstars was bad and nobody really cared. It came and went.

What? It’s a great 2D Sonic game!