Contest and Stats Discussion - Part 1385

Retrospectives for 2026:

Years - 5/2
Series - 7/2
Character Battle IX - 7/9
Character Battle V - 9/12
Character Battle X - 10/19
Rivals - 11/3

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

~*Most Surprising Results*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

~*Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Then there's things like Three Houses looking good and then most of the board bust their brackets trusting it to be worth anything.

To be fair, Byleth got both announced and released for Smash Ultimate in the intervening time. And while Three Houses certainly wouldn't have beaten Xenoblade even before that, I think that's mostly on Xenoblade matching the absolute most optimistic, seemingly unrealistic pre-contest expectations of its strength.

For Three Houses' percentage on Resident Evil 2 in 2020 to equal what it scored in the final GotY poll, Smash Ultimate would have to be worth 42.87% indirectly on Breath of the Wild. That's clearly high to me (Witcher 3 scored 41.28% on Breath of the Wild among registered users), but probably not by more than 3-5 percentage points, small enough that Byleth in Smash alone could feasibly explain the gap.

(Though from memory, I believe there's the additional wrinkle of what in retrospect looks like a solid showing for Three Houses in GotY voting being widely considered disappointing at the time for losing to Resident Evil 2.)

~

And as far as Final Fantasy VI goes, while I too would expect a bit more out of it here than what it showed against Wind Waker (and Thousand-Year Door), mainline non-Skyward Sword 3D Zeldas are both very strong here and the exact sort of Galaxy 2-style entrant it's especially difficult to run up the margin on. I think that result at face value already puts FFVI in our top 10 games - don't think there's anything to indicate that more than ~6-8 games are clearly and obviously in a tier ahead of it, at least - and also that a hypothetical neutral entrant of FFVI's strength would 55-45 a hypothetical neutral entrant of Wind Waker's strength.

Yeah, I don't really hold the Wind Waker performance against FFVI much. It's really hard to put up a big number against a mainline Zelda.

FFVI's collapse in 2009 was pretty bad though. From almost beating LttP in 2004 to getting crushed by it with 3 Nintendo games in the poll wasn't great!

Is there a reason to be confident Witcher 3 is stronger than Smash Ultimate?

Chrono Trigger had a rough 2009, too, but they both seemed to recover well enough in 2015.

MacArrowny posted...

Is there a reason to be confident Witcher 3 is stronger than Smash Ultimate?

In 2026, probably not anymore, or at least I think Witcher 3 has fallen off from 2020 to now. In 2020, however... the eye test, mainly (at least to me). Smash Ultimate mostly running into other Nintendo games complicates comparisons considerably, but in terms of those we're relatively well-placed to make,

Smash Ultimate couldn't even SFF Xenoblade - a game Smash as a series played a significant role in popularizing - scoring 59.61% on it in admittedly adverse circumstances. In contrast, Witcher 3 seems to have somehow managed to SFF God of War - a game that's hardly more specific in its overlap than 'AAA Western-developed, action-oriented game with RPG mechanics' - in scoring 64.48% on it.

Returning to that Smash Ultimate/Xenoblade match for a moment, the one Nintendo game Witcher 3 faced before Breath of the Wild was Galaxy 2. With 60.6% there, it somehow outshone Smash Ultimate's showing, against a Nintendo game presumably stronger than Xenoblade.

I won't linger on Smash Ultimate's 63.61% on Spider-Man, since clearly *something* unusual happened in Witcher 3/God of War that disproportionately favored the former. Plugging that match into 2015 doesn't work well either, since the only same-opponent comparison that's feasible sans adjustments* puts Smash Ultimate so far behind Witcher 3 and even Smash 4 that it pretty much leaves no possible doubt Minecraft improved substantially between the two contests.

*(That is, unless you assume - as I do - that Xenoblade's bandwagon about canceled out the SFF Smash Ultimate otherwise would've dealt it, thus allowing us to take that result at face value. I can post more 2015 extrapolations through Xenoblade's division if desired.)

Xenoblade being in the top 8 at all probably means it had some bandwagon effect yes. Hard to tell how much.

It's a bit annoying that contest was set up so that the Nintendo games would knock out each other, because it means we don't really have a read with how they compare to the lower bracket big games. I get that Allen probably wanted to avoid them dominating, but I'd rather risk that and have good matches. Ultimate in particular seemed incapable to score the same blowouts as many of the others, which I contribute to the "Game of the Decade" name boost that forced voting likely came with.

Log FAQs is back up, albeit borked and annoying to read

Up

Underleveled posted...

Log FAQs is back up, albeit borked and annoying to read

I asked GMUN about his site over Discord and the site domain being suspended wasn't due to a takedown request (probably by Fandom's legal team) as I had originally feared. According to GMUN, the site being down was due to increased bot traffic wrecking havoc on the site's database access limits.

Oh no a blank POTD again

RIP PotD

Maybe the real PotD is the friends we made along the way.

Bump

I've gone through and done some light edits to the first 3 contests now. Summer 2004 next.

Bump

It's funny how literally the only thing that's changed for fave SF2 character is Chun Li's percentage. The general shape of the bar chart remains remarkably consistent over the years, aside from Chun Li's going further and further to the right.

Yeah, it's impressive how Chun Li swallows votes equally from everyone else. This is remarkably consistant.

thick thighs save lives

she can get in smash

And Ryu somehow has managed to hold fairly steady even as Chun-Li has surpassed him. It's everyone else who keeps dropping.

Bump

There's a Facebook page running a best game ever contest and I've been following along in my desperation for contest content

I'm also following another page that's doing a "Best Season 4 Simpsons Episode" contest

Plenty of Facebook contests come up in my feed somewhat regularly. I don't ever actually follow any but occasionally they keep showing so that I basically see the outcome regardless.

I don't know if I could lower myself to using Facebook

Summer 2004 edits done.

Villains done.

Marge vs. The Monorail won Best Season 4 Simpsons Episode, by the way

Now for a small world moment

I came across a Greatest Wrestler of All Time Contest, and I checked the results, only to see that our very own yoblazer had voted on the match

We all miss contests

Does Requiem win GOTY?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7840-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year-final-vote

hmm

could Wolverine beat FE or RE? Not sure what other contenders there are.

Who needs friends anyway? Today’s poll results sure do say something.

Bots > Friends

This poll's misleading. I play games with my girlfriend and friends sometimes, but my overwhelming playtime is still single player.

The final four of this Facebook games contest is Red Dead Redemption 2, Fallout: New Vegas, Stardew Valley, and of course, Ocarina of Time.

Ocarina of Time is, fittingly, timeless.

it's like no matter what demographic you poll, Ocarina of Time is always there

ocarina is going to lose to stardew valley. lmao

After that it faces Farmville in the Tournament of Champions

Pretty solid playrate for Mario RPG yesterday considering it initially didn't release in Europe

Mario character poll today for Mario Day

Yoshi is riding his Donald Glover announcement wave to another easy victory.

This poll once again shows why Walugi should never be a playable character in Smash Bros.

Yeah, Yoshi has gone up at everyone else's expense

The power of hype

Waluigi never had any business being in that poll to begin with when it is limited to only 8 characters.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Waluigi never had any business being in that poll to begin with when it is limited to only 8 characters.

Replace him with Rosalina or DK.

is Donkey Kong a Mario character or just a DK character

How many games does Waluigi appear in that does not have Donkey Kong in them.

Otherwise, Daisy is a better choice as well. You could argue minions even.

Zylothewolf posted...

This poll once again shows why Walugi should never be a playable character in Smash Bros.

once upon a time he was more popular than bowser here

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7898-which-mario-character-is-your-all-time-favorite

*looks at year*

I blame Covid