Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1384

Leonhart4 posted...

It should have told people that it was plenty capable of winning this contest, but this is why we can't have nice things.

MM would have gotten 57.11%

With rallies, sure

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4192-final-rounds-quarterfinal-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-zelda

MGS3 felt like the odd game out in the division finals (along with Halo), and it didn't help matters that it got a day match against a Zelda game to make it look as bad as possible.

Was MGS3 really considered that much weaker than RE4?

It almost looks perfect to consider them equal

I think FFX rallied against MM at a 2 to 1 ratio

I don't know about "much" weaker but I think RE4 would've been a heavy favorite on the board had they met in 2010. Now? I'm not so sure.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3500-division-7-final-mgs3-oblivion-zelda-tp-re4

They were pretty close in strength, at least back in 09.

True, but there was a notion that certain games would get a boost based on the concept of the contest and RE4 was definitely one of those games.

I'm not sure how true it turned out to be, but that was the rationale at the time.

Leonhart4 posted...

there was a notion that certain games would get a boost based on the concept of the contest

I was a proponent of this theory and I think it turned out to be completely wrong. Persona 4 going far in the next 'Game of the Decade' was just icing on the cake.

Despite having a solid track record, RE4's contest runs always end up feeling a little bit underwhelming. It always more or less does what it's "supposed to" but never quite impressed while doing so.

RE4 is already punching heavily above its weight class. No other survival horror game even comes close to its strength.

Yeah, RE4 being this strong is pretty impressive and definitely speaks to its impact. It's just not going to take down a really big name.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4193-final-rounds-semifinal-fallout-3-vs-smash-bros-brawl

This was the first semifinal, so this was our first of three 24-hour matches. There was no early backlash against Brawl this time around, as it had 60% at the freeze. The Oracle average was 57.64% as well, so people were expecting a convincing victory.

However, Fallout 3 did some major work with the overnight vote. It managed to drag Brawl under 54% for a while, but the day vote enabled Smash to salvage a little of that lost percentage.

I think the top three freeform match pictures from 2010 have to be Sandbag ZERO, Big Boss vs. Colossus 1, and this picture of the Brawl roster on the Horizon of the Capitol Wasteland.

KamikazePotato posted...

I was a proponent of this theory and I think it turned out to be completely wrong. Persona 4 going far in the next 'Game of the Decade' was just icing on the cake.

Now that is a bandwagon.

KamikazePotato posted...

I was a proponent of this theory and I think it turned out to be completely wrong. Persona 4 going far in the next 'Game of the Decade' was just icing on the cake.

I believe on The Show, I made the point that we've never had a contest called "Here's a bunch of games in a bracket or something, I don't know"

I see no argument against that theory honestly. We saw the biggest titles that in general are in contention to score insane blowouts early while titles like Ultimate that gets the job done but couldn't reach those highs. I refuse to believe it's a coincidence that the BotW opponent was the lowest in x-stats in both round 2 and round 3. Forced voting helps there as well, I am aware, but still. Persona 4 bandwagoned a lot in Game of the Decade, there is no reason to think otherwise and plenty of things pointing towards it, it's not a case against it at all.

A few exceptions doesn’t make that theory wrong. We saw a loooot of topics about the name of the contest being very meaningful to voters.

I think 'Game of the X' probably meant exactly as much as 'Who would win in a fight' because the contest was called the Character Battle.

So...maybe enough to flip a 51/49 match?

Yeah, the concept definitely mattered to some people, but it's hard to quantify exactly how much of an effect it had. It didn't appear to be significant, at least.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4194-final-rounds-semifinal-final-fantasy-x-vs-zelda-majoras-mask

It's amazing the path this contest took from "wow finally a contest Zelda won't win" to "please Zelda save us." Personally I knew FFX was trouble in this match when it took so long to take the lead and build the lead. Even so, it still could have won this match without people rallying for Majora in the greatest act of cowardice in contest history.

FFX would have beaten Brawl. Knew it from the beginning and never stopped believing it. We finally had a chance for the actual best entrant in a contest to win the contest, but it was not meant to be.

And in the event where Brawl just beats FFX - fair play. It would have deserved it then.

I'm not convinced FFX would have taken it either. With the bscklash from being Melee, then yes, it loses that as well. Otherwise not sure.

Brawl wasn’t beating either game.

Melee had previously beaten FFX and a year earlier Brawl didn't lose to FFX by very much in a poll that had Ocarina in it. Not at all unreasonale to think Brawl takes it without the backlash from beating Melee.

Of course it's very likely no save us Zelda campaign was needed for that. FFX was at its worst still close enough to take it using said backlash.

Leonhart4 posted...

We finally had a chance for the actual best entrant in a contest to win the contest, but it was not meant to be.

2009 was the year before though

Did Final Fantasy VIII win 2009? I don't think so unless OoT was retroactively disqualified.

How many games do we need to disqualify to make that happen, twenty?

It happened in summer 2003 and spring 2004 imhotbh

I still can't see that as anything but "im hot tbh"

I guess games 2010 is the one year that neither semi final was trash since the time where the whole contest stopped being 1v1 24 hours for the whole contest and instead only for the last three matches. Fallout 3 vs. Brawl was mot that interestint but not completely irrelevant either.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4195-game-of-the-decade-super-smash-bros-brawl-vs-the-legend-of

If there's one match where the title of the contest came into play, it's this one. People really didn't want Brawl crowned as our Game of the Decade (even if it actually kinda was the most influential game on our contests this decade if nothing else). As such, Majora's Mask almost had joke trends here. It jumped out to a big lead early and was able to build it up over the first half of the match. Brawl's powerful day vote was able to slice off several hundred votes, but the damage had been done and it was just too far behind to catch up.

Brawl is probably the strongest game in that contest in Round 1. With no bandwagons or 'Are we really gonna crown Brawl as our game of the decade?' it beats anything else.

Yeah agreed. Probably was the strongest for the first four rounds.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4196-bonus-battle-link-vs-santa

Allen came up with a really fun idea for a bonus match since it fell on Christmas Eve. This was the only time we saw a non-video game character in a contest match, and Santa Claus nearly broke 40% on Link, which is no small feat. Only Cloud and Sephiroth have ever done it one-on-one.

I had hoped that this would open the door to having non-video game characters in future Character Battles, but it was not meant to be. It felt like it could've worked with CBIX's massive roster, but instead we got three Touhou characters and three separate characters named Zero.

We'll be back in the spring for more retrospectives!

He always wins.

This felt like one of the times where LAW really cemented itself. No Zelda game among the favorites and the strongest entry just boosts itself to victory. Then Link easily beats Santa Claus on goddamn Christmas Eve.

I was always on the fence about all fictional. I enjoyed they were not there because it's a weird line to draw but it would have given less predictable brackets. I think for a time where votals were low and vulnerable to large rallies, it would have just eaten up our contests more.

Probably doesn't have to be all fictional, just that characters have to have a video game presence. However, it would be hard to distinguish between "Spider-Man from the Sony games" and "Spider-Man, generally"

Though if we could distinguish contest entrants from different games, we could probably create a fodder-tier Samus if the poll specifies her Other M version.

It’s foolish we never had the heaviest of heavy hitters in a character contest.

So if FFX won we get Tidus getting doubled by Santa for the bonus round?

pjbasis posted...

So if FFX won we get Tidus getting doubled by Santa for the bonus round?

Which would've been hilarious

Or maybe the cast of Brawl against Santa's reindeer

Oh man it could've been HA HA HA vs. HO HO HO

Another reason why Majora winning was terrible

Allen saw Link winning easily and thought there was no point to the fictional character contest...

I'm coming around on this

Summer 2002 edits done.

God I was such a s*** writer back then, and that's even the second form of that PCA to begin with.

It's almost GotY time

Prediction: Final Poll is Clair Obscur > Bananza

Yeah not sure what else competes. Interesting to see if Silksong can get third I guess?

I'm so desperate for contest action that I seek out those Facebook posts that ask people to pick their favorite or "one has to go" posts just to see the results. Just came across a Mario 64 vs. OoT post.

OoT tripled Mario 64. Heavy SFF, no doubt.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1644-division-32-round-2-super-mario-64-vs-the-legend-of-zelda

If you close your eyes does it almost feel like nothing changed at all?

Leonhart4 posted...

I'm so desperate for contest action that I seek out those Facebook posts that ask people to pick their favorite or "one has to go" posts just to see the results. Just came across a Mario 64 vs. OoT post.

OoT tripled Mario 64. Heavy SFF, no doubt.

Please don't download a prediction market app.

If you could bet real money on GameFAQs Contests, half of B8 would be broke.

I have never gambled in my life and don't plan to any time soon