Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1384

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4174-south-division-round-3-star-wars-kotor-vs-final-fantasy-ix

Nobody was sure if this should have been considered a bad performance for FFIX or a good performance for KotOR, or maybe a little of both. I wonder how much FFIX gets now.

2010 FF9 just wasn't that great. It definitely wouldn't have beat Kingdom Hearts 1 like in 2015.

I wonder at what point the switch flipped for FFIX because Vivi had boosted quite a bit by 2013.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6173-best-game-ever-day-38-quarterfinal-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs

This match was a sign of how much SFF has diminished over the years. We saw what OoT was capable of doing to Link to the Past in 2009 (granted, in a final match where it was trying to fend off FFVII, so that's a unique circumstance), and now it couldn't even break 60% on it one-on-one.

We never really discuss where Link to the Past falls in strongest non-FFVII/OoT games. It feels like it's kinda been forgotten. It doesn't beat Chrono Trigger in 2015, but I wonder how it does against R/B/Y or the big three Mario games.

LttP probably wouldn't ever get the chance to go as deep as it could, because it is very much capable of causing a Zelda vs. Zelda finals should be allowed on the opposite side of bracket against Ocarina.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4175-southwest-division-round-3-resident-evil-4-vs-persona-4

Nothing interesting to say about this one. Persona 4 was the weak link of this round (at the time) and we all knew it. I wonder what Persona 4 could get on Resident Evil 4 now.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6174-best-game-ever-day-38-quarterfinal-super-mario-rpg-vs-metal

Resident Evil 4 and Metal Gear Solid 3 have looked like near equals in the past, so most expected Mario RPG to win again. However, MGS3 held up better than I thought, considering the bandwagon was probably stronger than ever by now. It actually cut several hundred votes during the dead of night, although it never got close enough to threaten to take the lead.

A shame we didn't have MGS3 in the top 4. Oh well.

I can appreciate the Super Mario RPG dream run. SNES is stronger than ever and the what, sixth strongest game lives the longest.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4176-southwest-division-round-3-portal-vs-mass-effect

Mass Effect's newfound strength was one of the biggest surprises of this contest. The Oracle average for Portal was about 59% here, so Mass Effect outperformed that by nearly 5% in this match. It's too bad we only got one Character Battle with Mass Effect at peak strength, but at least we got a big Shepard win and a Wrex upset out of it!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6175-best-game-ever-day-39-semifinal-smash-bros-melee-vs

Semifinals means only one match per day. This is the match this site had the least input ever in the final outcome, so it had that going for it, I guess.

Were the rallies really that near in strength

Well I guess without rallies melee kinda destroys undertale so nvm...

Rallies frequently don't run up the score. IIRC once SSBM folded, Undertale took the foot off the gas pedal as well.

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6175-best-game-ever-day-39-semifinal-smash-bros-melee-vs

Semifinals means only one match per day. This is the match this site had the least input ever in the final outcome, so it had that going for it, I guess.

Such a small blurb for such a legendary match. Even matches I hated got way more effort man.

This was incredible from start to finish.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Such a small blurb for such a legendary match. Even matches I hated got way more effort man.

This was incredible from start to finish.

Nah, it was pretty terrible. I have zero interest in Undertale outrallying Melee while our site was held hostage and we were nothing more than bystanders. The blurb got the amount of input our site had on the outcome, so it was appropriate.

Wow Undertale rallied

Wow Melee rallied

Wow Undertale rallied harder

Oh no Melee couldn't rally enough

Who could have foreseen that Undertale was a lock to win the contest the moment it took the lead against Mass Effect 3

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4177-west-division-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-paper-mario

This was one of those matches where the result looks respectable for both sides. MGS3 got a fairly comfortable win and Paper Mario showed it wasn't merely the beneficiary of an easy path.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4178-west-division-round-3-metal-gear-solid-4-vs-shadow-of-the

Shadow of the Colossus was a fun upset, but most of us expected it to stop here. After MGS4 went toe-to-toe with Brawl in the 2008 GotY and made it to the semifinals in the 2009 Games Contest, it was the clear favorite in the Guru to win this division. Even though it hadn't performed up to that level so far, we still thought it'd be stronger than MGS2, at least. The Oracle average was 54.63% (with only one person picking SotC to win) and it also had a nearly two-to-one advantage in Battle Contest picks (SotC had a two pick advantage over MGS2 the round before).

MGS4 had a small lead at the freeze, but SotC overtook it on the next update and never looked back. It had a 300 vote lead by the end of the first hour (which was bigger than its peak lead over MGS2) and peaked at 851 before MGS4 used the night vote to cut the final margin to 466.

This match simultaneously cemented Shadow of the Colossus as the star of the contest and Metal Gear Solid 4 as the turd of the contest. Now the question was if SotC could complete the trifecta and beat MGS3 next round.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Even matches I hated got way more effort man.

I would also love to read a few paragraphs about Leon ranting about the fall of Blizzard

If you want nonsequitur rants all of Ulti's PCA writeups are on the Wiki (including him taking shots at me from time to time which is always a treat to read when I'm getting info from the match page for these reviews)

I actually want to delete a bunch of those because it's old immature junk. If you spot one, by all means link and I'll edit.

Mass Effect/Portal was the most recent one because that was just the other day. Not keeping track of which times it happened beyond that.

Thanks. Edited. I'll go through everything one day but by all means link me here if you see any in live time.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6176-best-game-ever-day-40-semifinal-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs

We begged Allen from the very beginning of the format change back in 2010 to switch to one match for 24 hours a round before, and he never did. Matches like this are a major reason why we wanted it sooner because it felt like one of the semifinal matches was always an uninteresting (often SFF-laden) result. This wouldn't tell us anything about Ocarina of Time or its chances against Undertale.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4179-northwest-division-round-3-zelda-majoras-mask-vs-pokemon

The framework for this match began with this match from the 2009 Games Contest:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3486-division-5-round-2-pokemon-zelda-mm-mgs-pokemon-gs

The thought was that R/B/Y would certainly affect G/S/C more than Majora (and it had doubled Majora without G/S/C in the match the round before), so G/S/C should be stronger than Majora one-on-one. That's how G/S/C became the Guru favorite and was still the favorite in the Oracle when the match rolled around. Who knows if Majora just got stronger in the time since, but it's clear that it was difficult to predict how LFF in 4-ways would translate to a one-on-one environment.

Majora's Mask put this match to bed almost immediately. It had nearly 55% at the freeze and never let G/S/C get any closer than that. This was an instance where the casuals got the better of us. Majora had 54.57% of brackets and 4000 more picks in the Battle Contest.

2009 MM was clearly weaker, and by a good margin. Not sure what changed from 2009 to 2010 but it was significant.

MM was kind of going through a renassaince around those years, and Ben drowned was published a few months before the contest started which made even more people take another look at MM rather than dismissing it for being different than other Zeldas. Or maybe even made people try it out for the first time.

I got to believe that there was some bit of shenanigans with the format, with Pokémon benefitting from four ways, and Majora being weakened in some fashion by it.

Also, Zelda and Pokémon are going to have quite a bit of overlap as Nintendo reps, so we probably also mis-estimated how much Majora was SFFed by RBY compared to GSC.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I got to believe that there was some bit of shenanigans with the format, with Pokémon benefitting from four ways, and Majora being weakened in some fashion by it.

Also, Zelda and Pokémon are going to have quite a bit of overlap as Nintendo reps, so we probably also mis-estimated how much Majora was SFFed by RBY compared to GSC.

This is what GSC did in the preceding round:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3463-division-5-round-1-deus-ex-fft-mgs-pokemon-gs

Granted, it stood out in that poll, but it still went from that, to doing significantly worst against MGS1. RBY also did much worse against Majora when GSC was added to the poll. The two Pokemon games definitely hurt each other.

Like we can make excuses for 2009 Majora, but I don't believe that iteration of the game would beat Final Fantasy X or peak Brawl.

If only we'd run GotD a little sooner

But not too soon where Brawl still wins because its strength hasn't dropped enough yet

There's a very tight window where FFX wins it and we came so close to hitting the sweet spot

I wonder what running a game of the 2000s would look like today.

MM probably wins again, so it's probably reasonable to ban it

Melee fans would just rally so who cares

sounds reasonable to ban Melee too

Leonhart4 posted...

Melee fans would just rally so who cares

I thought smash as a fanbase has kinda declined considerably post covid and after Nintendo kinda wrecked the ways to view it, wouldn’t shock me if they lack the mobilization to rally now

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4180-northwest-division-round-3-zelda-wind-waker-vs-oblivion

This was a solid win for Wind Waker. Oblivion had demonstrated good strength up to this point and Zelda beat it effortlessly. Majora was the favorite headed into the Zelda vs. Zelda showdown though.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6177-best-game-ever-final-undertale-vs-zelda-ocarina-of-time

Undertale's final win was by far its easiest. It had nearly 65% at the freeze and the rest of the match was just a slow percentage bleed by Ocarina of Time to get it down to a less embarrassing number. Some dared to say its victory was inevitable and they were proven correct.

For the second contest in a row, an overwhelming outside force had overrun and dominated this site's user base. Since rallies are always more fun and more unpredictable, these are surely widely regarded as the two greatest contests we've ever had.

We did it Twitter! We beat OoT!

Leonhart4 posted...

Since rallies are always more fun and more unpredictable, these are surely widely regarded as the two greatest contests we've ever had.

ur just mad it wasn't mass effect 3 that got rallied

it could have been ANYONE

Mass Effect 3 was a deserving #2 in the X-Stats thank you very much

I honestly think 2015 was an amazing contest. 2013... eh.

And no one can hate on 2007. That one was great.

2007 was lightning in a bottle. There will never quite be anything like that again. Also low key something that worked in L-Block's favor is that it didn't start knocking out heavy hitters until late in the contest. That's what helped to make the final match so shocking and memorable.

By contrast, the 2013 contest felt over after what Draven did to Ryu and MMX in round 2 and we were still shell shocked in 2015, so the contest felt over early there, too. There was no real drama with Undertale. There actually was drama with Draven, but it was almost never the fun kind (other than when Hayter got involved).

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4181-north-division-final-fallout-3-vs-halo-combat-evolved

This match actually started an hour late. It wasn't that the previous match ran for an extra hour. We just had no poll for an hour. Fortunately, it had no impact on the outcome because Fallout 3 made short work of Halo.

I knew Halo would win, but 80% against Fallout 3? Amazing!

Also this is the start of round 4 despite 2015 starting two weeks later than 2010 yet we couldn't have quarter finals over 4 days.

Was peak Fallout 3 stronger than peak Skyrim

I think their peaks are roughly equal. These days I think F3 has maybe dropped a little? The fanbase pendulum seems to swing over to New Vegas slightly more with each passing year.

Fallout 3 probably overperformed a little bit on Brawl (though I guess Brawl then underperformed on Majora) and Skyrim was constantly affected negatively by rally spillover, so it's hard to tell for sure, but it likely isn't a big performance.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4182-northeast-division-final-metroid-prime-vs-half-life-2

With this being a match of two first-person games, some users made match pics that reflected that perspective, which confused a lot of people.

As for the match itself, this is one of those "not as close as the final score indicates" results. Prime used Metroid's traditional powerful opening vote to build a fast lead. The rest of the match was Half-Life 2 stalling and slowly whistling away at the lead, but never really threatening to win.

Leonhart4 posted...

As for the match itself, this is one of those "not as close as the final score indicates" results.

Do you just use this to say there aren't trends?

No, I meant what I said. Prime had 53% and a 1000 vote lead early and it just stalled the rest of the way, so that's how you get Half-Life 2 with over 49% in a match it never seriously challenged to win.

Well yeah, but let's say it was a trend heavy match, where MP started in the lead, HL2 took a 1000 vote lead halfway through, and then MP won with the same margin it has. Would that mean HL2 seriously challenged to win?

Yes, because it took a sizable lead. I wouldn't say this meant there were no trends. Prime had one dominant segment and then it was a stalemate.