Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1384

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4170-east-division-round-3-pokemon-platinum-vs-smash-bros-brawl

Like Melee, the Oracle average for Brawl was a doubling, but it didn't have a massive drop after the early vote. It did have the double advantage of an SFF match and a day match, but Brawl looked better headed into the match of the century of the decade.

Reminder that Allen had DPP in this match.

ctesjbuvf posted...

It's a decent analysis, but it seems to me as if the Undertale rally in r2 was already there from the start or at least very close to the start. Looking at the vote totals compared to other round 2 matches both earlier and later, they are higher on this day, also early on. SMB3 bled percentage basically the whole day while 64 was pretty consistent. There is no reason to think they have different trends (in particular because we have almost no trends anymore), so it seems to me as if SMB3 would do a bit better against the same opponent.

I think this is a compelling argument and do agree with it to some extent. My one objection is that I think the vote totals, their trajectory, and Undertale's trends against Fallout 3 clearly indicate a point of divergence during the 13:xx hour of that match - in contrast to which there was no point of divergence during Mario 64's match with RBY, with its far higher vote total through that point. As such, while I agree that Undertale impacted Mario 3/RBY from the start, I also think that impact escalated greatly after a certain point to reach an ultimately comparable level to RBY/Mario 64's finals carryover.

World > 3 feels fairly undeniable to me too, though as you might have guessed, I'm low on both games' 2015 strength (and would not feel confident picking World over Majora). I feel pretty confident in placing CT, OoT, and FFVII ahead of Mario 64 circa 2015, and think LttP and RBY were probably ahead of it too. Would certainly take LttP there nowadays, at least, and probably BotW too.

It's unfortunate we didn't get to see what World could do because I think it was a beast that year. Look at those registered user stats and it's at 80% on Undertale.

You can also clearly see the bandwagon effect among our own user base as Undertale ends up at 34% against OoT by the end.

I cannot fathom Super Metroid beating Mario World, so I think it hangs with LttP and beats Majora.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6169-best-game-ever-day-36-division-vii-final-super-mario-rpg-vs

This was probably the biggest upset of the contest based on pre-contest expectations (81% of Gurus had RE and less than 5% had SMRPG), but it may not have even been the biggest upset of this day...!

By the time of the match, we were expecting a close match, but RE4 was still the favorite. It had almost a 3-to-1 advantage in Oracle picks, but its average was only a little under 52% here.

However, Mario RPG came out of the gate on fire with 56% at the freeze and it actually finished the Power Hour with a higher percentage. Even SMRPG's nonexistent European vote only enabled RE4 to stall for a while before it got buried by the day vote.

Ah the second worst result of all time….

Only SFII LOST!? is worse.

Looking back, it probably wasn't the best of ideas to let the Square/Nintendo game feast on the non-Square/Nintendo games.

The bracket was clearly set up to avoid Square/Nintendo dominance in that quarter of the bracket and then ironically a combination of both has boosted to heaven thanks to a SNES boost and also perhaps thanks to a bandwagon of beating casual bait.

MetalmindStats posted...

I think this is a compelling argument and do agree with it to some extent. My one objection is that I think the vote totals, their trajectory, and Undertale's trends against Fallout 3 clearly indicate a point of divergence during the 13:xx hour of that match - in contrast to which there was no point of divergence during Mario 64's match with RBY, with its far higher vote total through that point. As such, while I agree that Undertale impacted Mario 3/RBY from the start, I also think that impact escalated greatly after a certain point to reach an ultimately comparable level to RBY/Mario 64's finals carryover.

It's hard to state because votals in general grow over the course of the contest, so how much of the bonus matches were rally spillover? Also by the time the final was here, Undertale didn't even really need to rally further in particular, it crushed the match from the start and so the usual boost carrying over to the next match might not really have happened in the same way because there was no need to keep rallying throughout the match. Ocarina won only a single update over the whole match. Those are part of the uncertainties.

With how good basically every single SNES game looked that year, I just don't see how World wouldn't have been a beast as well. The direct Undertale matches are hard to compare post round 1 because some of the people register and Undertale bandwagons obviously.

TeamRocketElite posted...

Looking back, it probably wasn't the best of ideas to let the Square/Nintendo game feast on the non-Square/Nintendo games.

Aside from the bandwagon, maybe SMRPG sapped RE4's Nintendo support? Like how Snake folds whenever he faces Samus 1 v 1.

KamikazePotato posted...

Like how Snake folds whenever he faces Samus 1 v 1.

We really gotta do this again huh

Snake beat Samus effortlessly in 2013 even before rallies, so I don't think there's some weird thing going on there.

Samus was always stronger in 2006. The matches with Tifa and Zelda were the outliers, not the Snake match.

I think Samus was just a beast in 2018. She just got stuck against the one person who can rSFF her, so we didn't get an accurate read on her strength. Wish she would've faced Cloud that year. I think she'd have beaten him.

Like why would Samus and only Samus of all characters be able to "sap" Snake's Nintendo support?

Don't agree but instead of going down thst route again, I instead want to bring of if RE4 has done something similar against Nintendo before. So it avoided Nintendo entirely in 2010, but in 2009 it was very close to Twilight Princess multiple times. I kinda doubt it played any role then at least and that's against a game it shared a console with.

I'd say RE4 looked clearly weaker in 2015 than it had in 2009 and 2010. I could also see it being negatively impacted by forced voting and something like Mario RPG benefiting from it.

It was also a harbinger of things to come for Leon Kennedy in 2018.

I could see Super Metroid > Super Mario World being an interesting upset in a theoretical game of the 90s contest. Respect for SM has only gone up over time. I don't think it'd happen, but after how close it came to Majora, it's not really inconceivable to me.

Nah, I just don't see it at all as even a possibility. I don't think nearly beating Majora means it's ready to tackle the clear top two dogs on the SNES, both of which would probably SFF Super Metroid. This is one of those situations where the hierarchy would establish itself.

Leonhart4 posted...

Nah, I just don't see it at all as even a possibility. I don't think nearly beating Majora means it's ready to tackle the clear top two dogs on the SNES, both of which would probably SFF Super Metroid. This is one of those situations where the hierarchy would establish itself.

Yeah, this is just Mario vs. Samus 2005 again, and I don't think it nearly flips like it did in 2018.

It's freaking Mario World.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4171-southeast-division-round-3-super-mario-galaxy-vs-zelda

This demonstrates the power a 1 seed holds for a casual. Everyone on B8 knew Twilight Princess would win easily. In fact, the Oracle average was only 0.05% away from the final result, so we basically had this match pegged.

And yet Mario Galaxy still had more picks in the Battle Contest Challenge, and against a major Zelda game, no less. I appreciate the respect shown to the Galaxy games, but it's wild to see so many people not expect Zelda to win.

My basic, very condensed argument for a relatively weak 2015 Mario World is that its percentage on Vice City through FFVIII when attempting to cut off both matches before Undertale rallies entirely took over just isn't very impressive.

For consistency's sake, using results at the 16:40 update in Round 1 and the 13:10 update in Round 2, because both represented Undertale's opponent's peak lead, Mario World is projected to score 69.76% on Vice City.

By comparison, Resident Evil 4 (a stronger RE4 than in 2015) scored 65.69% on Vice City in 2010. Majora is projected to score 70.43% on Vice City through RE4 and FFX in 2010 (with 2010's stronger FFX at 70.36% through RE4).

RE4 could have SFF'd Vice City or something to occlude a static Vice City, I suppose. But how likely do we really think that is, especially when San Andreas fell off a few percentage points against Chrono Cross compared to 2010's projections? There's also the matter that Undertale's extant Round 2 impact through 13:10 likely overrates Mario World a bit even in the above.

As pre-Undertale Mario World being unimpressive at best in 2015 is, I'll freely admit, a counterintuitive opinion, this certainly could be a case where I simply have my head buried too far into stats and projections and calculations.

Well, you're also assuming the percentages remain static the rest of the way when that's likely not true. World probably gains on FFVIII with the day vote, for instance.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6170-best-game-ever-day-36-division-viii-final-metal-gear-solid

Also known as the match that made Karma Hunter lose his mind, but this is probably my favorite result of the contest. A decent number of people actually picked MGS3 to win. MGS1 had 59% of Gurus, MGS3 had 25%, and ME2 had 11%. MGS1 had a two-to-one advantage in Oracle picks.

I didn't think there was any way MGS3 could win because MGS1 was the presumptive top dog in the series and a 90s game to boot. This was the only upset involving a post-90s game beating a 90s game. Occasionally the hierarchy gets upended (we'd see it in Tifa > Sephiroth a few years later), but for it to happen with one of my top 3 games ever was just a delightful result in the midst of an overall disappointing contest because of all the rallying.

It's tough being an MGS2 fan.

At least I'll take it as a consolation prize that, going through SotC, MGS2 really far off from MGS3. 55-45 indirectly is pretty good considering how brutal some series hierarchies can get.

Also, side note, interesting PotD! Not surprised by the winner, but the margin is definitely bigger than I expected.

It's just asking who you think will win and the winner is fairly obvious!

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6170-best-game-ever-day-36-division-viii-final-metal-gear-solid

Highlight of the entire contest from a personal preference perspective. Not that the first isn't also a great game.

MGS3 my beloved

I don't actually know these days if I prefer 1 to 3 and it's cool to see the hierarchy upended anyway.

does make you a little jealous when you stan a different entry though...

Like seeing FFIX beat FFX or VI would be kinda rad, but ultimately make me sad it's not FFVIII doing it.

pjbasis posted...

Like seeing FFIX beat FFX or VI would be kinda rad, but ultimately make me sad it's not FFVIII doing it

We got to see VIII beat IX before it flipped other way and that's good enough for me

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4172-southeast-division-round-3-kingdom-hearts-ii-vs-kingdom

Wow, between MGS3 > MGS1 and KH2 > KH1, this is a top tier day in contest history! KH1 was the favorite in the Guru and the Oracle. The average was about 53% and KH1 had 69 picks to KH2's 19.

This was actually a tight match for the first two and a half hours, with the lead never getting above 100 votes for either side. KH1 had a 5 vote lead on the last update before the ASV, and then KH2 took over and blew it away the rest of the match for a clear victory.

I feel like I didn't even think twice before picking KH2 there. Sometimes it pays off not looking at board consensus.

Leonhart4 posted...

We got to see VIII beat IX before it flipped other way and that's good enough for me

true, but this was actually about MGS2 dangit

ctesjbuvf posted...

I feel like I didn't even think twice before picking KH2 there. Sometimes it pays off not looking at board consensus.

I just thought more people hated it like me.

Maybe I was right and that's why it was so close...!

pjbasis posted...

true, but this was actually about MGS2 dangit

MGS2 got lucky it didn't have to face MGS4 imhotbqh

Shadow of the Colossus saved it

day/night match cycle changed everything

mgs2 was supposed to win and then beat 3 and 4, they all got saved instead

3 still wins the division.

nu uh

if it looked like 2 was gonna lose I was gonna rally at the raiden fan club

In 2010 we were still only like 8 people.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6171-best-game-ever-day-37-quarterfinal-smash-bros-melee-vs-final

There was no delay in the rallying today. Melee took the lead right away and never looked back. People were celebrating Melee winning because Final Fantasy VII always wins. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Entropy wins. Entropy always wins.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/10129-which-game-do-you-personally-want-to-win-game-of-the-year-at

I wonder which game is winning the GameFAQs GotY poll.

Leonhart4 posted...

It's just asking who you think will win and the winner is fairly obvious!

And now we get a direct 'what do you like most' poll for comparison! Which kinda spoils our GotY polls, but, eh.

EDIT: Ninja'd by TRE by 7 seconds.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4173-south-division-round-3-final-fantasy-x-vs-golden-sun

Final Fantasy X got off to a rough start. Golden Sun was over 40% for the first 30 minutes (suggesting that it might have had a bandwagon effect, at least from the early voters). FFX wrecked it from there and managed to salvage a respectable percentage by the end.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6172-best-game-ever-day-37-quarterfinal-undertale-vs-super-mario

This was the first time no one in the Oracle picked Undertale to lose. It's good to accept your fate. Entropy wins. Entropy always wins.

Beating GTA games always comes with a boost.

So the gap between Chrono Trigger and FFX is equal to FFX and Golden Sun

Now we need to find the jrpg that Golden Sun 65-35s

KamikazePotato posted...

And now we get a direct 'what do you like most' poll for comparison! Which kinda spoils our GotY polls, but, eh.

EDIT: Ninja'd by TRE by 7 seconds.

Hey, something not nominated could do well.

Like, uh...

pokemon maybe

never doubt the power of Nintendo (Clair is still winning)

Pokemon over DK? Hmmm

I think it's safe to say Clair Obscure is going to be Game of the Year here

its divided by quarter now right?

winter would be… KCD2 or Monster Hunter?
spring would be E33
Summer would be DK
fall… could be Pokemon over Silksong or Hades II? I dunno

At a glance, I think this performance is on par with what Baldur's Gate 3 did in 2023.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9421-best-of-2023-summer

BG3 got 78.5% against Pikmin 4. Clair Obscur currently has 78.8% against DK Bananza. Considering that BG3 went on to beat a mainline Zelda game, and then win this poll as well:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9794-best-of-2024-game-of-the-decade-so-far

Today is a really, really good result for Expedition 33.

LiquidOshawott posted...

its divided by quarter now right?

winter would be… KCD2 or Monster Hunter?
spring would be E33
Summer would be DK
fall… could be Pokemon over Silksong or Hades II? I dunno

Silksong and Hades 2 were both Q3 (September) releases.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9874-whats-your-pick-for-the-best-game-of-2025-so-far
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9965-at-the-halfway-mark-whats-your-pick-for-the-best-game-of

Xenoblade X's remaster winning the first poll is extremely funny.

It would be very funny if the final was Claire Obscur vs. Three Nintendo games

I don't think it will happen, but it'd be funny.