Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1384

Leonhart4 posted...

Also I don't think Clair Obscur catching Elden Ring is out of the question

It clearly got stronger with the day vote yesterday

I dont think it catches up in this poll, but its close enough that there's enough wiggle room for weird LFF, so it could maybe beat Elden Ring 1v1. Would be a reasonable upset pick. BG3 is definitely looking a cut above both of them though.

So what are we thinking for the current top ten games all time? I would guess in alphabetical order:

Baldur’s Gate 3
Chrono Trigger
Final Fantasy VII
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow
Super Mario 64
Super Mario World
The Witcher III

I am confident about nine of those but then the tenth is mystifying. After thinking about it I went with The Witcher III as it has probably only gotten stronger, other games in contention for that last spot are Elden Ring, Final Fantasy VI, and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. Notably no games from the 2000’s at all!

I have no confidence in Witcher 3 beating a major game from the 90s. I wouldn't put it ahead of Mario 3, FFVI, Super Metroid, or Majora's Mask.

I would definitely take it over those last three at least. Super Mario Bros 3 has weakened substantially over time and I don’t think it’s all that. Younger people playing it today - of which there are indeed SOME still here - do not connect with it in a way they might with World or even 64. As somebody who grew up with World I was always surprised by the reverence for 3 from people a few years older. Super Metroid was a hair below Majora’s Mask which did not look stronger than The Witcher III. Final Fantasy VI gives me pause but it didn’t look that great against The Wind Waker and has probably only weakened since. I am not wedded to those ideas necessarily. There just aren’t any games outside that top nine I would confidently take over The Witcher III.

Keep in mind that Breath of the Wild was pushing 60% on Witcher 3 before the rallying started. It got 62-63% on Majora in a bonus poll that almost certainly had some SFF in it.

I think people acknowledge that these games deserve GotY and such but remake/remaster dominance clearly shows we're an old and nostalgic site. Baldur's Gate is not reaching those highs and I don't believe we have any results to back it up either.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I think these recent year GotY polls would be quite misleading in terms of contest strength.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Oh, nothing too extreme, I think the winners are legit, but not quite to the degree they results are implying, I think the winners would dominate a good bit less in a contest. Not that we have anything to compare to directly.

I don't think TotK is a fraud either but probably significantly weaker than BotW though.

Translating BotW vs. Witcher 3 and Majora to direct strength is already pretty faulty, and I would not set TotK anywhere near BotW.

Leonhart4 posted...

I have no confidence in Witcher 3 beating a major game from the 90s. I wouldn't put it ahead of Mario 3, FFVI, Super Metroid, or Majora's Mask.

oi

Majora is 90s adjacent...!

Also I was just including it as a list of overall games I wouldn't be confident Witcher 3 could beat.

At the end of the day, it's hard to side against a big 90's game on this website. Because even if a new game is huge at the time, it often struggles to remain huge. Like I wouldn't be surprised if the whole "open world sucks" crew keeps growing and bites Breath of the Wild in the ass once we get another Games contest in 2035.

I think that is significantly underestimating Baldur’s Gate 3. Tears of the Kingdom is one thing, but I have a hard time envisioning a world where Elden Ring is not stronger than Dark Souls and that’s where Baldur’s Gate 3 beating it so comfortably starts to look really impressive.

Leonhart4 posted...

Keep in mind that Breath of the Wild was pushing 60% on Witcher 3 before the rallying started. It got 62-63% on Majora in a bonus poll that almost certainly had some SFF in it.

I can’t check right now but I think the rally only added 1-2% to where The Witcher III would have wound up with its normal trends. So quite clear of Majora’s Mask it’s just a question of how much SFF there was.

Curious how Elden Ring does compared to Dark Souls. ER reached a much bigger audience, but DS is older.

It’s not even really older=better, I don’t think there’s much debate that the strongest 2010’s and probably 2020’s games are stronger than the strongest 2000’s or 1980’s games. It is just that this site LOVES the 1990’s and always has. With Majora’s Mask like Leon says it is kind of an honorary 90’s game!

I'm more referring to how something like Mega Man X would beat almost everything from the 2010s.

Fun thought about the games in the poll: Dread's the only one currently on a Nintendo console, but I'm guessing all of them will be by the end of 2027. Remake has a port coming this month, Rebirth is announced, Elden Ring is announced, and BG3/E33 seem like likely choices for porting.

Legend of Dragoon would break 40% on the Witcher III

MacArrowny posted...

I'm more referring to how something like Mega Man X would beat almost everything from the 2010s.

Fun thought about the games in the poll: Dread's the only one currently on a Nintendo console, but I'm guessing all of them will be by the end of 2027. Remake has a port coming this month, Rebirth is announced, Elden Ring is announced, and BG3/E33 seem like likely choices for porting.

you know this is probably why both games invested heavily on trying to do work on Steam Deck optimization. It probably lessens some of the work on making a Switch 2 version

e33 runs like ass on the deck though so they didn't do too well

e: to the point that I refunded it and bought it on ps5 instead

I know they did some patches for it after the VGAs though I haven’t tested it yet. Was thinking about recently.

library had a copy of E33 so I don’t feel too bad.

LightningStrikes posted...

So what are we thinking for the current top ten games all time? I would guess in alphabetical order:

Baldur’s Gate 3
Chrono Trigger
Final Fantasy VII
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow
Super Mario 64
Super Mario World
The Witcher III

I am confident about nine of those but then the tenth is mystifying. After thinking about it I went with The Witcher III as it has probably only gotten stronger, other games in contention for that last spot are Elden Ring, Final Fantasy VI, and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. Notably no games from the 2000’s at all!

Mario RPG has to be on that list. Maybe.

Melee probably isn't what it used to be, but it should still be in the discussion for top ten.

SMB1 Vs. Baldur's Gate 3, who you got?

I take SMB1, but after what Mario RPG did in swatting away MGS3/RE4 I take SMB1 over anything non-Nintendo/Square, and maybe only Final Fantasy VII over it of Square's games.

The OG Mario 1? I take Baldur’s Gate. “It’s freaking Mario” is the only reason that’s even a discussion.

If Melee is in the chat then FFX also has to be. Without rallies those two are basically equals. And if those two are in the chat, Majora’s Mask also has to be there. We also haven’t seen Tears of the Kingdom in a contest poll either.

How many of those games I mentioned is BG3, Witcher 3, or Elden Ring (or Skyrim) beating? I think anyone taking BG3 over Majora’s Mask is nuts.

If only we would ever find out

Also at this point our vote totals are so low and it's been so long since our last contest that there's no way to know what our hierarchies look like. We can assume that the heavy hitters are still the heavy hitters, but the order can certainly have shifted.

aw Remake couldn't hold onto it's 2024 percent.

It was funny seeing it gain in percent even with another option taking a fifth of the votes

I mean, I’m out of the loop on BG3, so today’s result is a bit shocking to me but people would really bet on BG3 > Super Metroid?

Super Metroid hasn't impressed in most of its appearances.

It impressed in its most recent appearance, which is what matters

Seanchan posted...

I mean, I’m out of the loop on BG3, so today’s result is a bit shocking to me but people would really bet on BG3 > Super Metroid?

Yeah. We won’t know until we know and we will probably never know but Baldur’s Gate 3 has wowed every single time it’s shown up. Like The Witcher III it is also a game that you would expect to only get stronger over time also.

I wish we could know…

Wonder if FFVIIR3 is going to be exactly the same strength as well.

pjbasis posted...

Wonder if FFVIIR3 is going to be exactly the same strength as well.

And when you add all their strengths together, it'll be equal to OG FFVII.

FFVII remake's and rebirth's summed strength is about the same as Clair Obscur's. It was even greater for awhile there but is a little less now.

Clair Obscur probably still beats either of them one on one fairly easily though.

Yeah not all of their support will go to the other. Some like one but not the other in fairly equal numbers. Individually they are probably slightly stronger than Metroid Dread but firmly below Clair Obscur.

I wonder how this will look compared to last year.

Last year, BG3 beat Elden Ring with 55.08%. Right now it's at 55.36%.

Last year it put 59.15% on the FF7 duo, now it is at 57.90%, but FFVII Remake collapsed from this time to the end of the match last year while BG3 follows the climb to heaven trends so BG3 could break 59% again.

And, for full comparison, BG3 put 54.33% on Tears of the Kingdom in 2023.

Edit: And I suppose to round things out, Baldur's Gate III has 57.67% on Clair Obscur.

Super Metroid is a solid mention.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6158-best-game-ever-day-30-round-3-super-metroid-vs-zelda-majoras

We think these newer games are pulling that off? Come on. This site is stuck in 1998.

The thing is, I have a hard time seeing Majora’s Mask near 55% on Tears of the Kingdom. Similarly when you look at say Final Fantasy VI that did worse on Wind Waker. Ultimately the only way Baldur’s Gate 3 isn’t right up there (assuming all else is equal anyway) is if Tears of the Kingdom is the second weakest 3D Zelda game and that just seems highly unlikely to me. It is probably behind only BotW, OoT and ALttP, which the result on Elden Ring just shores up I think.

I'll just say I think you're taking these poll of the day results at way too much face value.

Remember how FFVI vs. FFVII went?

People here respect that these games deserve the GotY status, but you're still seeing remake/remaster dominance here for a reason, in a contest setting this site holds its old darlings very near.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if TotK is below WW and TP.

These polls are all we have. Also GotY aligns more than random polls anyway.

I would be very surprised by that!

Massive SFF with all the RPGs here though. Clair beats BG I bet.

lmao

LightningStrikes posted...

The thing is, I have a hard time seeing Majora’s Mask near 55% on Tears of the Kingdom. Similarly when you look at say Final Fantasy VI that did worse on Wind Waker. Ultimately the only way Baldur’s Gate 3 isn’t right up there (assuming all else is equal anyway) is if Tears of the Kingdom is the second weakest 3D Zelda game and that just seems highly unlikely to me. It is probably behind only BotW, OoT and ALttP, which the result on Elden Ring just shores up I think.

Do you think Baldur's Gate 3 would match its PotD result on Tears of the Kingdom in a contest, with all those extra voters who are disengaged with contemporary gaming in the mix? If so, how come?

For myself, with BG3 notching yet another spectacular PotD showing and also having something of a renewed moment of late, I think I'd take it to just barely beat TotK in a contest match somehow held tomorrow. But even that guess warrants extra caution to me - between doubled votes for registered users and the aforementioned voters disengaged with contemporary gaming, the typical 2020 contest match received nearly 3x the votes of the average of the last two polls for 2019's game of the year. And if those extra voters favor TotK by even a modest 55-45 margin (which against BG3 might be equivalent to an even split without doubled votes from registered users), it beats BG3 - which stays true even if the latter has doubled its relative PotD margin to ~58-59% on TotK.

That leaves TotK's contest strength as the big unknown here, to which I'll say that I at least think there's good reason to place it far below BotW. Sonic 1 was the strongest Sonic in 2009, even though its reputation is quite a bit worse than those of Sonic 2 and Sonic 3. Mass Effect 1 was about on par with Mass Effect 2 in 2015, even though the latter is widely considered a clear iterative improvement on the former. And, most materially, Galaxy 2 is noticeably more beloved than the original and yet is also noticeably weaker in a contest here.

MetalmindStats posted...

And, most materially, Galaxy 2 is noticeably more beloved than the original and yet is also noticeably weaker in a contest here.

Nah, I disagree with that one. Galaxy 2 has some big fans (like me), but it's definitely not more highly regarded by a big margin. Galaxy 1 being more popular is very easily explainable either way. It came out when we still loved the Wii, and Galaxy 2 came out after we had turned on the Wii.

Leonhart4 posted...

Nah, I disagree with that one. Galaxy 2 has some big fans (like me), but it's definitely not more highly regarded by a big margin.

Ah, I think this is mostly my bad for miscommunicating - I didn't mean to imply that Galaxy 2 is more highly regarded by a big margin. I think if you asked a sufficiently large slice of our voterbase which of the two they prefer, you'd get a result around 55-45 in Galaxy 2's favor, versus perhaps 55-45 the other way indirectly in a contest.

LightningStrikes posted...

These polls are all we have. Also GotY aligns more than random polls anyway.

There's not too much to back that up given how few none GotY polls we have, but they've kinda always been a bit misleadning to some degree, as have multiways. All the way back, FFX doubled Melee in GotY then lost to it 1v1 when they met in a contest two years later. I firmly believe results like Ultimate > God fo War and FFVIIR > Ghost of Tsushima wouldn't have been as close in a contest setting, the former seems clear in particular, the latter, well, we haven't had a contest since. Then there's things like Three Houses looking good and then most of the board bust their brackets trusting it to be worth anything.

Do GotY have increased votals from random polls? I don't believe they really have, but contests have big time, that's the main reason they're not the same on top of the good ol' "best" vs. "favorite".

Leonhart4 posted...

Galaxy 1 being more popular is very easily explainable either way. It came out when we still loved the Wii, and Galaxy 2 came out after we had turned on the Wii.

Oh yeah and fully agree on this one and it's part of the reason why I believe TotK is a lot weaker than BotW. Even though the site never turned on Switch that way, it was still the s*** that everybody praised in those first few years its later years have had much more focus on its performance and things like that. Well that and BotW being revolutionary for gaming and TotK being a great sequel to that (saying that as someone who prefers the latter).

LightningStrikes posted...

Similarly when you look at say Final Fantasy VI that did worse on Wind Waker.

Final Fantasy VI not being a total beast in contests feels weird to me. With how much this site loves the 90s I'd expect FF6 to be a top 10 game or at least in the running.

It probably is.

Play Undertale.