Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1383

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4132-northwest-division-round-1-oblivion-vs-soulcalibur-ii

Last match of round 1 here, too, which tells you how much faster four matches per day goes because Game of the Decade started two weeks earlier than Games 2015 did!

Anyway, there were some jokes about SoulCalibur II winning this because of Link being in the match picture, but this basically went as expected. Unlike with Character Battle VIII, no vote-in games won a match and none of them really came close.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6115-best-game-ever-day-17-round-2-chrono-trigger-vs-dragon-quest

It's rare to see an 80%+ blowout after round 1 that doesn't involve SFF (unless you believe there was Toriyama SFF...!). Now there was no doubt Chrono Trigger was a force to be reckoned with, but could it be strong enough to knock off FFVII or even OoT?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6116-best-game-ever-day-17-round-2-mega-man-x-vs-final-fantasy-x

If there was any doubt that this contest belonged to the 90s, this match eliminated that, even in defeat. FFX had nearly won Game of the Decade, and here it was struggling to get 55% on a second tier SNES game. Anyone who had FFX beating CT next round was kissing their brackets goodbye now.

Leonhart4 posted...

Toriyama SFF

I honestly don't think this is impossible, maybe counted for a couple percents. There is not one single fan of both games that wouldn't know about the Toriyama thing. Didn't Allen reuse round one pictures, too?

CT probably SFFs all JRPGs that are not FF7, those two are viewed as the gold standards still

LiquidOshawott posted...

CT probably SFFs all JRPGs that are not FF7, those two are viewed as the gold standards still

Eh, I don't think there's a general JRPG SFF thing going on. If anything, it's pretty easy to see there wasn't any SFF against FFX the next round.

CT and DQ8 are both Square Enix JRPGs at least, even if they're on other sides of the merger. I think there's at least a little SFF there. Though it's likely mostly CT being a beast while DQ8... isn't.

Eh, Square isn't Nintendo where everyone kinda falls under the same umbrella and the overlap is much higher because of things like Smash.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4133-north-division-round-2-fallout-3-vs-deus-ex

Deus Ex had its fun in round one (even if the fans weren't happy about it...!), but Fallout 3 put a stop to that very quickly in round two. The top games laying the smackdown would be a recurring theme throughout round two.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6117-best-game-ever-day-17-round-2-smash-bros-melee-vs-pokemon

This was 55/45 for a while, but that wasn't good enough for Melee fans, who decided they needed to rally in a match they were already winning comfortably. The real villain of this contest was Melee, not Undertale, and this was the start of it.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6118-best-game-ever-day-17-round-2-kingdom-hearts-ii-vs-the-last

There was no real doubt about KH2 winning this match, but after Last of Us destroyed Halo 3, there was some discussion about the percentages. The Oracle average was about 56% here, so KH2 exceeded expectations a bit here. TLoU had a solid showing for a relatively new game in this contest.

Non- rally Melee felt anemic in 2015. You'd think with Nintendo progressively being on the rise, and Square struggling over the years, it would've at least looked decidedly better than FFX, a game it barely beat in 2004...but they still looked about the same in the adjusted 2015 X-stats.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/776-best-of-2001-overall-game-of-the-year

This poll always looks so crazy to me. I felt like GameFAQs liked SSBM from the start but it's actually a late bloomer.

TeamRocketElite posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/776-best-of-2001-overall-game-of-the-year

This poll always looks so crazy to me. I felt like GameFAQs liked SSBM from the start but it's actually a late bloomer.

Probably because Smash N64 was a fun but janky game, so hype for Melee wasn't super high.

Melee's success caused the Brawl hype to skyrocket.

It's hard to say how much the competitive scene affected gamefaqs, but that wasn't developed until quite a few years after release either.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4134-north-division-round-2-batman-arkham-asylum-vs-team-fortress

Not much to say about this one. Batman won uneventfully and within about a percent of the Oracle average. And to think, five years later, Shadow of the Colossus would get over 70% against Team Fortress 2! Quite the dropoff.

what was the gap between sotc and batman in 2010?

pjbasis posted...

what was the gap between sotc and batman in 2010?

X- Stats project a 55/45 win for SotC, but it was probably overrated because of its bandwagon (although some people argue Fallout 3 overperformed on Brawl too so maybe it evens out).

Melee wasn’t crazy popular until a few years after release when competitive stuff popped off.

Yeah, Melee winning that division in 2004 was a big upset at the time because it hadn't exploded quite yet.

Honestly Brawl might have done more for Melee's popularity than anything

Eh. At the time I thought its only real competition was FFX and Wind Waker. I also went favorites pick for most debatable stuff and it worked out.

I had Melee too but it had less than 10% of brackets winning that division (which had a lot of potential winners in the eyes of casuals, to be fair), and I know it didn't have a ton of B8 support. I don't know that anyone was shocked, per se, but it wasn't the favorite.

Leonhart4 posted...

Honestly Brawl might have done more for Melee's popularity than anything

Well, the thing is that contests indicate that Melee's popularity has been stagnant since 2004. Considering that basically everything else Nintendo has increased since then, it's a bit surprising.

Melee had more battle picks than Brawl. Also had the greater b8 support even at the time of the match.

KamikazePotato posted...

Well, the thing is that contests indicate that Melee's popularity has been stagnant since 2004. Considering that basically everything else Nintendo has increased since then, it's a bit surprising.

Eh, I think there was a clear Smash boost in the wake of Brawl. We just didn't get a fair chance to see it in a Games Contest (we kinda saw it in the Series Contest, I guess).

I think it's also possible Melee was weaker in 2015 once people stopped caring about Brawl because it wasn't the current Smash game anymore and people were finally able to move on to the new one. People hating Brawl kept Melee fresh.

Either that, or FFX has maintained its strength amazingly well (which I'm fine with!).

What actually was the bracket favorite in 2004? Halo? FFX?

Overall? Probably Halo. On the board, pretty sure it was FFX, although Wind Waker had some support, too.

I'd be surprised if any one game had much more than 15-20% of brackets for the 128 division finals. You could easily make a case for any of Melee, Starcraft, FFX, Wind Waker, Halo, Vice City, Metroid Prime, Half-Life, Kingdom Hearts, or Metal Gear Solid 2 to have a shot of winning the division considering how little data we would have had at the time. Some were a bit more likely than others based upon the Top FAQs and relevant results in the Character Battles, but I would bet that 128 is easily the most contested division we've ever had.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6119-best-game-ever-day-18-round-2-final-fantasy-vi-vs-paper

I was personally hoping TTYD could do better than this, but this was the expected result based on the Oracle average. FFVI looked great for the second round in a row.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6120-best-game-ever-day-18-round-2-star-wars-kotor-vs-zelda-the

All things considered, this was a solid showing for KotOR. It was hard to count out a major Zelda game under any circumstances, even Wind Waker, but it was definitely the underdog going into next round.

Chrono Trigger currently putting up the highest percentage in this favorite SNES game POTD it ever has

We almost had something special in 2015 but rallies make everything more fun

Maybe it isn't too late for the runback...

This would probably be about the best timing we could have to try for it, since BotW and TotK are in the rear-view, and there's no mainline Zelda in the works for the Switch 2.

Leonhart4 posted...

Chrono Trigger currently putting up the highest percentage in this favorite SNES game POTD it ever has

We almost had something special in 2015 but rallies make everything more fun

It still was a special run. Chrono Trigger’s problem is there is no where to really rally for it.

PS5 ownership here pretty much Wii U level...

UltimaterializerX posted...

It still was a special run. Chrono Trigger’s problem is there is no where to really rally for it.

It lasted three rounds. No, it wasn't. Not when we were robbed of what it could have done.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4135-north-division-round-2-uncharted-2-vs-street-fighter-iv

Uncharted 2 was at nearly 60% at the freeze, but it had dropped to nearly 54% by the end of the first hour and basically maintained it the rest of the way. There were some hopes that it could challenge Halo next round, but this performance essentially put that to bed.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6121-best-game-ever-day-18-round-2-smash-bros-wii-u-vs-mass

It was clear from this result that Smash 4 wasn't on the same level as Melee or Brawl had been at their peaks. It made sense due to its inherent disadvantages, but it was still kinda weird to see it struggle with the original Mass Effect. This did retroactively make Galaxy 2 look better though!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6122-best-game-ever-day-18-round-2-halo-combat-evolved-vs-final

This is probably as close as we'll ever see to FFVII's true raw power, and that's entirely due to its opponent. FFVII finally faced an opponent that gets anti-voted on the same level it does, and it took full advantage. The Oracle average was just shy of a tripling, and FFVII overshot it by 4% here.

UltimaterializerX posted...

It still was a special run. Chrono Trigger’s problem is there is no where to really rally for it.

That would mean a place that Chrono Cross can be rallied, too good to be true.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4136-north-division-round-2-halo-3-vs-halo-combat-evolved

What a difference five years makes! Halo was the clear favorite on the board going into the match, but Halo 3 actually had more picks in the Battle Challenge. I guess people were hoping Game Fuel would help it finish the fight.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6123-best-game-ever-day-19-round-2-super-mario-bros-3-vs-pokemon

Unfortunately, even without the silly rallies, Pokemon was on track to win this without too much trouble. It had around 54% and was rising with the day vote before the rallies caused this match to get out of hand. 75% of Gurus had Pokemon winning.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6124-best-game-ever-day-19-round-2-sonic-the-hedgehog-2-vs

For what it's worth, half of Guru brackets had Portal 2 winning here, 34% had Sonic 2, and 13% had Uncharted 2. Like the previous match, Sonic 2 had this well in hand before the rallies. This probably finishes around 60/40 in a normal match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4137-northeast-division-round-2-metroid-prime-vs-devil-may-cry-3

Not much to say about this one other than to comment on Metroid's strong early vote. Prime had over 72% at the freeze and over 67% at the end of the Power Hour.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6125-best-game-ever-day-19-round-2-fallout-3-vs-undertale

50% of Oracle pickers either didn't realize or refused to accept that the contest was over because they picked Fallout 3, so I'll take an easy top 3 Oracle prediction here, thank you very much.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6126-best-game-ever-day-19-round-2-final-fantasy-viii-vs-super

Mario World was on pace to win with about 63% or so here when the rallies kicked in, which is another reason why they suck. No taste whatsoever.

Undertale really got the perfect opponents for Round 1 and Round 2. ME3 is an anti-support magnet, and no one's going to care enough to rally for Fallout 3 (it's popular but it isn't that kind of game). After that it was too late.

Leonhart4 posted...

Unfortunately, even without the silly rallies, Pokemon was on track to win this without too much trouble. It had around 54% and was rising with the day vote before the rallies caused this match to get out of hand. 75% of Gurus had Pokemon winning.

This was probably the most debated match before the contest. I was alone in arguing RBY would beat SMB3 after the Tetris result, even without rallies. Actually, I think MWC agreed but half the board had him blocked and the other half also do not respond to him. It is the most confident I have ever been in a contest setting where it was me against everyone, I also made a topic the day before for bragging rights. Though most people still got it right because they expected rallies which kinda makes it a pointless victory.

Tetris could have wrecked brackets elsewhere.

I do think RBY would have been capable of beating Undertale had they met this round.

I think Tetris could have done fine elsewhere. It's a solid midcarder. There are definitely places it could have won a couple matches.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4138-northeast-division-round-2-mega-man-9-vs-okami

This one was pretty straightforward. Okami was predicted to win with about 59% and while it fell a little short of that, the outcome was never in doubt.

KamikazePotato posted...

Undertale really got the perfect opponents for Round 1 and Round 2. ME3 is an anti-support magnet, and no one's going to care enough to rally for Fallout 3 (it's popular but it isn't that kind of game). After that it was too late.

It was too late with Pokemon. That game actually fought back really hard. But after that, yeah it was going to take a miracle or a counter rally.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6127-best-game-ever-day-20-round-2-skyrim-vs-goldeneye-007

There were some debates about whether rally spillover would hurt Skyrim again and even make it vulnerable to an upset. The Oracle average was only 52.52% and about a quarter actually picked GoldenEye to win.

This was probably Skyrim's most impressive contest performance, putting up nearly 60% on a game that (somehow) once placed in our top ten games list back in 2005. If there was spillover, it was barely noticeable or fairly evenly split because Skyrim maintained its percentage very well throughout the match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6128-best-game-ever-day-20-round-2-metroid-prime-vs-half-life-2

This had been one of the best matches from Game of the Decade, but no one was really anticipating a repeat performance. Prime's Oracle average was 54% and it blew past that by nearly 4% here. It had 62% at the freeze, showing off that impressive Metroid early vote. Now the question was whether GoldenEye or Half-Life 2 was the stronger game going into a showdown with Skyrim.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4139-northeast-division-round-2-tales-of-symphonia-vs-god-of-war

I was rather bullish on Symphonia's strength from 2009 being legit when so many people complained about it being a 4-way wonder when it beat God of War, which somehow must have been LFF'd by GTA: San Andreas, because there's no other way it could have lost. I don't know if this counts as a moral victory despite the loss or not because Symphonia was in a deadlock with GoW until the morning vote. Unfortunately, the morning vote heavily favored GoW, and it was able to pull away quickly to secure the win.

I’m still upset people thought I was pic sabotaging the first match. People are very, very stupid.

I'm pretty sure ToS actually lost the first 12 hours against GoW in the 4-way poll, so there was unfortunately no reason to pick it here. A day match, though...

Tails competing with Knuckles for #3 huh.

The 2001 Sonic character poll for comparison:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/581-whos-your-favorite-sonic-adventure-series-character