Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1383

SMRPG and SF2 aren't near equals! That was a 56/44 match back in 2004 and it'd probably be worse now.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6101-best-game-ever-day-13-gta-san-andreas-vs-shovel-knight

We had two GTA games going at the same time, and they both managed to underwhelm. I don't know if having two games from the same series on the same day helps, hurts, or is a net neutral, but it definitely didn't help GTA here.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6102-best-game-ever-day-13-world-of-warcraft-vs-chrono-cross

Chrono Cross was the Guru favorite with 62% of the picks, but only 27% of brackets sitewide had it winning here, which is no surprise. Even so, this was an easier win than many expected, and it was now the clear favorite going into round two.

San Andreas always felt weaker than it should be. That applies to Rockstar in general though.

I was just about to say the PS2 GTA games should have done better. But i've just had a quick look at how they did and they basically kept getting fed to high level Nintendo stuff early on.

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6101-best-game-ever-day-13-gta-san-andreas-vs-shovel-knight

We had two GTA games going at the same time, and they both managed to underwhelm. I don't know if having two games from the same series on the same day helps, hurts, or is a net neutral, but it definitely didn't help GTA here.

It probably helps, tbh. A super-GTA fan who might not care to turn up for a single match might show up if there are two games in the series they can vote for. That series is just naturally weak on this site.

shane15 posted...

I was just about to say the PS2 GTA games should have done better. But i've just had a quick look at how they did and they basically kept getting fed to high level Nintendo stuff early on.

Well, they also blew a lot of opportunities.

I just checked and no GTA game has ever won a close match. Unless you count this:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3467-division-6-round-1-gtavc-k-hearts-metroid-prime-paper-mario

Which is obvious LFF.

If you extend it to the Red Dead Redemption series, no Rockstar game in general has ever won a close match.

GTA even lost a close one in the Series Contest! Chokers, the lot of them.

Tommy Vercetti did alright back in the day

Vercetti beat DK in a close match in 2003 and Kefka in 2005

Yeah, that's why I specified 'games'. Even then Vercetti stopped being good after 2005 though. Couldn't hold the line forever (or for very long at all).

So Chrono Cross is actually even stronger than we think because SMRPG was bandwagoning

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4126-northwest-division-round-1-chrono-cross-vs-dragon-quest-viii

And here is Chrono Cross winning again! It exceeded the Oracle average by over 5% here, so this was a solid performance by the game that Allen retroactively crowned our 2000 Game of the Year!

what was the guru for that one

Chrono Cross had 77% of Guru brackets

pjbasis posted...

So Chrono Cross is actually even stronger than we think because SMRPG was bandwagoning

Chrono Cross got almost the same result on San Andreas as Golden Sun did. Make of that what you will

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6103-best-game-ever-day-14-the-witcher-3-vs-binding-of-isaac

Witcher 3 was one of the few new games put in a position to succeed. It was also one of the few games where the developers were willing to rally, although I don't think they ever did in a way that flipped a result.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6104-best-game-ever-day-14-metal-gear-solid-2-vs-resident-evil

This was Metal Gear's third match so far, and it looked unimpressive in all three. Now there was some doubt about whether it could avoid the upset against Witcher 3 next round.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4127-northwest-division-round-1-phoenix-wright-vs-mario-kart-wii

Another bad showing for a Mario Wii game, although at least this time it still won! The Oracle average for Mario Kart Wii was nearly 60% here, so we were expecting a comfortable win.

Even with PW's board vote, Mario Kart Wii had over 53% at the freeze, but it figured to go up from there. However, it struggled to build a lead overnight. It couldn't get above 500 votes, and Phoenix Wright even cut about 100 votes off of the lead at one point. However, the Nintendo morning vote came to the rescue, and MKWii was able to put the match away, although it was still considered a bad performance.

The only semi-winnable match an Ace Attorney game was ever given.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6105-best-game-ever-day-14-fallout-new-vegas-vs-bioshock-infinite

In previewing the bracket, Allen spoiled us on a couple of matches, and this was one of them. New Vegas was the clear favorite on the board in the wake of Fallout 4's release, and it had 55% of brackets overall. This was a relatively uneventful match. New Vegas took the lead right away and Infinite never really threatened a comeback.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6106-best-game-ever-day-14-resident-evil-4-vs-paper-mario

This was an unfortunate draw for both games. RE4 got the strongest 15 seed in the bracket, and so it couldn't even get to 60% here. Paper Mario could've won a match or two elsewhere, too, so it was wasted with this draw.

That match was probably just the difference in series strength at the time. The other match we knew of was Bloodborne vs. FFXII but I have forgotten why he teased those two in particular and in what context.

He was just having fun giving us clues about the contest.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4128-northwest-division-round-1-pokemon-crystal-vs-advance-wars

G/ S/C was the favorite to win the division, but we couldn't tell much about it from this performance. It didn't measure up to what Majora had done, but we could chalk that up to SFF at the time.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6107-best-game-ever-day-15-metal-gear-solid-vs-splatoon

This was the only Metal Gear game to meet or exceed expectations in round 1. This was a solid (pun intended) performance, but little did we know this would be the only one it'd have this contest.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6108-best-game-ever-day-15-earthbound-vs-borderlands-2

Borderlands 2 had 60% of Guru brackets, and even by the time the match rolled around, it was essentially a 50/50 split in the Oracle. Despite Earthbound being a 90s game, a lot of people didn't have much confidence in it because of its cult status and the fact that Borderlands 2 was (somehow) a Game of the Year winner.

Even the people who picked Earthbound to win didn't expect this. Only three Oracle pickers predicted it to score above 55% here, and it was over 60% early on before settling down after the Power Hour.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4129-northwest-division-round-1-zelda-wind-waker-vs-god-of-war-ii

Considering this was GoW2 and not the original, people were not impressed with this showing. There were some people who thought Wind Waker had a shot at this division, but this was not an encouraging performance.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6109-best-game-ever-day-15-shadow-of-the-colossus-vs-team

There was some debate about how legitimate SotC's Game of the Decade run actually was, considering it was mediocre in a full Games Contest in 2009. It exceeded the Oracle average by 10% and showed it was the real deal. Is this the strangest game to be this strong that we have?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6110-best-game-ever-day-15-red-dead-redemption-vs-bayonetta-2

It was odd that Bayonetta 2 got in over the original since it was a Wii U exclusive, and it performed like one. RDR did well for itself, but it was still the underdog going into next round.

Leonhart4 posted...

There was some debate about how legitimate SotC's Game of the Decade run actually was, considering it was mediocre in a full Games Contest in 2009. It exceeded the Oracle average by 10% and showed it was the real deal. Is this the strangest game to be this strong that we have?

I feel like vanilla Monster Hunter Rise was a much better boss rush game, but I never see it get any praise for that.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4130-northwest-division-round-1-assassins-creed-ii-vs-ico

There was some expectation that AC2 would be stronger than the original, but that didn't appear to be the case after this match. This also should have served as a warning sign that Shadow of the Colossus had upped its game if ICO could do this.

crazy that AC2 wouldn't be stronger. I mean, I liked AC1 quite a bit back then, it got me into the series after all, but AC2 was definitely a big improvement.

Typically the first game in the series gets a boost for repping the series name in general. Like how Resident Evil 1 looks a little stronger than RE2. Or how Mass Effect 1 is close to 2. Numbered sequels have to be noticeably more popular to overcome this deficit.

Yeah. Then in a direct matchup, AC2 stomps.

I think the most recent game in a series, as long as it's decently received, gets a boost, but gets weaker over time (like Brawl > Melee, KHII > KH).

I fully think Halo 3 would have beaten one if it had been the most recent installment.

Leonhart4 posted...

It was odd that Bayonetta 2 got in over the original since it was a Wii U exclusive, and it performed like one. RDR did well for itself, but it was still the underdog going into next round.

Bayonetta 2 might have been a Wii U exclusive, but it was also Nintendo exclusive, and got a weird variation of the RE4 effect, even if Bayo 1 also came to the Wii U at the same time.

Big_Bob posted...

I think the most recent game in a series, as long as it's decently received, gets a boost, but gets weaker over time (like Brawl > Melee, KHII > KH).

I fully think Halo 3 would have beaten one if it had been the most recent installment.

Nah, KH2 would've beaten KH1 in 2015, too.

Halo 3 wasn't the most recent Halo in 2010? What had come out by then? Reach?

Halo 3: ODST and Halo Wars were both released before 2010. Reach released in 2010, but I'm too lazy to look up if that was before the contest or not.

KH2 might have beaten 1 up until 3 came out, but I'm not so sure these days.

There's no reason to believe 2 wouldn't still beat 1, just like there's no reason to think the original Smash would beat Melee

There were several KH games out after 2 by the time of GotD and even more by 2015

I think 1 is the better game and I'm disappointed it lost, but it wasn't some huge surprise 2 won. It's more popular and liked by any metric other than nostalgia.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6111-best-game-ever-day-16-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-mother-3

We really have no clue how to gauge Mother 3. The Oracle average was almost 75% for MGS3, but it couldn't even manage 70% here. Despite the freshness of MGSV, the series appeared to be in decline.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6112-best-game-ever-day-16-bioshock-vs-silent-hill-2

This was a pretty straightforward result. Both games had been in GotD, and BioShock had been stronger by enough not to question the X-Stats in this instance.

KH2 has only solidified as the fan favorite, MGS3 also came out on top of the hierarchy. Maybe higher votals benefits first entries.

History of gaming, would you rather take the 1st entry in a series or the 2nd? Without breaking it down, feels like it's gotta be the 2nd, right?

Generally speaking, I think the first outranks the second, but it's certainly not a hard fast rule.

Leonhart4 posted...

Generally speaking, I think the first outranks the second, but it's certainly not a hard fast rule.

I suppose I was thinking about it mostly from a "playing the game" perspective rather than a "contest/popularity" perspective.

I think it's true in that case, too!

....I feel like this has come up before, lol...

Mass Effect 2 > 1
God of War 2 > 1
Assassin's Creed 2 > 1
Kingdom Hearts 2 > 1
Mega Man 2 > 1
Sonic 2 > 1
Mortal Kombat 2 > 1
Resident Evil 2 > 1

Mario 1 > 2
MGS 1 > 2 (probably?)
Zelda 1 > 2

Are we talking contest strength or game quality

My initial thought was game quality but I'd entertain contest strength separately as well. Given my examples above I'd still take 2 > 1 overall for both.

Contest strength only:

FF1 > 2
MMX1 > 2
Ace Attorney 1 > 2
Portal 1 > 2
Halo 1 > 2
Pokemon 1 > 2
The Last of Us 1 > 2
Metroid 1 > 2
Metroid Prime 1 > 2
Starcraft 1 > 2/2/2
Xenoblade 1 > 2
DKC1 > 2

Uncharted 2 > 1
Diablo 2 > 1
Half-Life 2 > 1
Silent Hill 2 > 1
Borderlands 2 > 1
Suikoden 2 > 1

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4131-northwest-division-round-1-paper-mario-tyd-vs-gears-of-war

This is a classic example of the board outsmarting the casuals. TTYD was the overwhelming favorite on the board, and the Oracle average was pretty close to what the final result ended up being. However, only 29.33% of total brackets had TTYD advancing.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6113-best-game-ever-day-16-starcraft-vs-destiny

The original rally machine faced off against a game we feared could become a rally machine of its own. Instead, this match resembled another infamous Starcraft match, Vincent/Kerrigan. The Oracle average was only 60% and Starcraft pushed a tripling. Only one picker had it getting that high.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6114-best-game-ever-day-16-mass-effect-2-vs-virtues-last-reward

Last match of round 1! There was some hype behind Mass Effect 2. It was a popular upset pick to beat MGS3. Virtue's Last Reward was (sadly) one of the weakest games in the field, and ME2 only did about 3% better on it than Persona 4 had done on 999, so it was hard to tell just how good this performance was at the time.

Leonhart4 posted...

Silent Hill 2 > 1

A Silent Hill poll I guess?

what would be the most interesting 1/2 matchup that could maybe be a toss up?

Paper Mario?

Paper Mario/TTYD could be interesting, yeah.

SoulCalibur?