Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1382

I do wonder if we might have been more shocked if Pac/Ocelot came before Magus/Knux.

Ocelot was a funny contestant. Not as funny as Liquid though.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2098-mushroom-division-round-2-mario-vs-ness

Round 2! Ness always buckled hard under SFF, and Mario was certainly no exception. This would be the third year in a row that Ness was hidden behind SFF, and we were still trying to figure out just how strong he actually was.

Ness with the ironically small-minded play of beating CJ, when CJ would have almost certainly performed better on Mario than Ness.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2099-mushroom-division-round-2-zero-vs-lloyd-irving

Up to this point, Zero had been in contention for strongest non-Noble Niner after his 2003 and 2004 performances. This was on par with what we'd expect from him in that regard. I believe this was his biggest blowout ever until his round 1 match against Primrose in 2018.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2100-zebes-division-round-2-samus-aran-vs-frog

All of Frog's first four matches ended 52/48 or closer, which is kinda wild to think about. Nobody thought that would continue against Samus, of course, but she still beat him worse than expected. The Oracle average was about a doubling, and she netted 70% by the end. It might be a bit much to say that Samus s***tered the Frog mystique, but he only had one exciting match after this (the comeback against Axel in 2007, which was sketchy, to say the least).

If Hornet (Hollow Knight: Silksong) was in a contest right now, just before her game comes out, how strong would her potential be?

I dunno, KOS-MOS maybe? Indie games are not strong here.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2101-zebes-division-round-2-ganondorf-vs-auron

Ganondorf completed the FFX trifecta with this win (unfortunately). People were hoping for a close match, but Ganondorf came out of the gates hot and it was clear right away that he wasn't losing this. Auron got his percentage up to nearly 48% overnight, but the patented Zelda day vote put this out of reach for good.

Ganondorf had over 67% of the brackets here, which is a crazy high percentage to beat someone like Auron. It's hard to quantify how much bracket votes are worth, but it probably helped Ganondorf win by more than he ordinarily would if the numbers were closer to even. Not enough to flip the result, but it's no surprise that this might have been the strongest Ganondorf or Bowser ever looked.

Also, pre-contest, this stretch of matches from here through Bowser/Ryu was called "the Gauntlet," where we got a bunch of consecutive matches between strong characters. We hoped many of them would turn out to be close, too, but that didn't really happen.

The Gauntlet was a really good setup based on previous xstats. The Boost kinda ruined it though.

f*** every nintendo boost!!

The best part of The Gauntlet is that Master Chief/DK wasn't even supposed to be part of it.

Why did Nintendo boost in 2005 btw? I felt that was when the company was at its coldest

Newer visitors to the site being younger and leaning Nintendo in preference? Possible DS hype? Those are really the only two reasons that make the most sense.

The biggest JRPG of 2004 was a Nintendo-exclusive back when this was JRPGFAQS, as was the biggest video game of 2005 at the time of the contest.

That seems like as good a reason as any.

I blame Resident Evil 4

Even RE4… it’s PS2 port had to have been announced by the contest and that should have taken some of its impact away but eh

LiquidOshawott posted...

Even RE4… it’s PS2 port had to have been announced by the contest and that should have taken some of its impact away but eh

If you're coming to GameFAQs to look for an FAQ on Resident Evil 4, there is a 99% chance you are coming because you have the game instead of because you'll be playing it months from now.

Twilight Princess hype was also a very real thing. At the very least, it's the only thing that explains Ganondorf being as strong as his 2003 self in this contest when he should have also flopped like Magus did.

Ganondorf is lucky he managed to fake it until he made it.

TeamRocketElite posted...

Ganondorf is lucky he managed to fake it until he made it.

On a technicality, since it came at a cost of looking weaker than CATS in 2004.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2102-gear-division-round-2-solid-snake-vs-zelda

There were lots of complaints about this picture. The Metal Gear Acid Snake pic didn't much resemble the Snake most are familiar with (and was jokingly referred to as "the Undersnaker"). Others thought that child Zelda was the less appealing version of the character, and so that would hinder her strength, too. In the end, I guess it balanced out...!

Once the match began, Snake made short work of Zelda. Even during the Nintendo Power Hour, he was in the mid-to-high 50s. It took the Zelda day vote to eventually bring Snake under 55%, but the result was never in doubt.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Twilight Princess hype was also a very real thing. At the very least, it's the only thing that explains Ganondorf being as strong as his 2003 self in this contest when he should have also flopped like Magus did.

This is definitely what sticks out to me when I think of that time period. The hype for that game was absolutely off the charts.

It is kinda wild to think of the outsized influence TP had considering it's probably the, what, 5th strongest Zelda game at best? Potentially the 7th?

LttP, OoT, BotW, MM, I guess Tears and maybe Link's Awakening can push TP down to 7. Don't see WW flipping the script on that.

TP was also considered a return to form for the Zelda series. Wind Waker was a very divisive game in its time, particularly for the cartoony cel-shaded art style, and while I think that sentiment has cooled significantly in retrospect, even those of us that enjoyed WW could at least see the appeal of returning to an Ocarina-style presentation.

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2102-gear-division-round-2-solid-snake-vs-zelda

There were lots of complaints about this picture. The Metal Gear Acid Snake pic didn't much resemble the Snake most are familiar with (and was jokingly referred to as "the Undersnaker"). Others thought that child Zelda was the less appealing version of the character, and so that would hinder her strength, too. In the end, I guess it balanced out...!

Once the match began, Snake made short work of Zelda. Even during the Nintendo Power Hour, he was in the mid-to-high 50s. It took the Zelda day vote to eventually bring Snake under 55%, but the result was never in doubt.

One of my best calls ever was picking Zelda > Snake a decade later. This result was borked.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2103-gear-division-round-2-alucard-vs-sora

This was the most debated match of the contest in terms of the split between picks. Sora was the favorite coming in, but the Oracle average was only 51.54% here, so we were expecting a close match.

And we got that early on. Alucard took the lead out of the gate, but he couldn't get his lead above double digits. This is the first time we really got to see the Kingdom Hearts day vote in action because Sora pushed a close match the way out to a 55/45 finish and a 10,000 vote victory.

^ one of the worst results we have ever had.

But I guess it was all a part of Alucard’s plan.

sora beats the good characters and then folds to Red, what a lame entrant!

I wonder how strong Sora would have been if KH3 had been timely and well received

Tanner tier in a fair and just world

I don't think timely KH3 changes much for Sora's path, to be honest. His problem is a general drop-off for Square, which ties into Final Fantasy's reception.

Well, it might have been enough to avoid getting embarrassed by Pikachu and Red in 2013 and 2018.

I'm not sure Pikachu doesn't just get the necessary support. Either way, I'm slightly worried what Squirtle is capable of getting rallied to the final if Pikachu is not there next round. Snake was strong, but that was a wacky contest.

Well, Pokemon was benefitting from a lot of rallying (n_n) in that contest, so you might be right

I'm glad we finally got over the "twenty-somethings being defensive about pokemon" phase that caused it to be such a plucky underdog

Imagine thinking you were "sticking it to the man" by supporting Pokemon of all things.

It was also just a different beast in those multiway contests, in particular the one with low votals and rallies all over

It was cool that one time Pikachu beat L-Block though.

Yesmar_ posted...

Imagine thinking you were "sticking it to the man" by supporting Pokemon of all things.

Game Freak is a small indie company so I like to support them when I can.

TeamRocketElite posted...

Game Freak is a small indie company so I like to support them when I can.

Oh yeah? rank Pulseman, Drill Dozer, Harmoknight, and Little Town Hero

Drill Dozer > Pulseman > Harmoknight > Little Town Hero

Just don't ask me if I've actually played any of them. >_>

I was actually planning to get Little Town Hero for a while but got too tied up with Fire Emblem Three Houses at the time. By the time I was done with Three Houses, it didn't seem like such a great idea to pick up Little Town Hero anymore. <_<

sigh

At least you have Beast of Reincarnation pre-ordered right?

When does that come out on Switch 2?

Pocket Card Jockey is where it’s at

I've played Drill Dozer!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2104-dream-division-round-2-kirby-vs-tidus

Tidus was a heavy favorite pre-contest. Even after their first round performances, he remained the favorite, with 60 Oracle picks as opposed to 23 for Kirby, but the average was only 51.19% for Tidus. Many people were still clinging to their brackets here for one reason or another. Kirby exploded out of the gate with 59% at the freeze, but we knew he had a great board vote and Tidus didn't, so we weren't ready to call it over just yet. However, it became apparent soon after this that it was over.

Tidus managed to use the night vote to bring the percentage down a ways, but Kirby crushed him with the day vote and managed to beat him with almost exactly the same percentage as he had gotten on Ramza in 2003. At this point, it was hard to deny that we were dealing with a stronger Kirby, and that Tidus had been a fraud all along. We had also gotten owned by the casuals here, with Kirby having a 54.53% prediction percentage.

That's like a doubling at least now

I doubt it's a doubling since Kirby doubled Phoenix in 2018, and DK got 57% on Tidus that year, too. It's probably close to a 60/40 now, I'd guess.

tbh it becomes more and more speculative what "now" would really look like. A large shift in another direction could very well have happened