Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1381

I feel like I would buy stock on Cyberpunk if it was a contest. Silverhand less so unless he’s up against like James Sunderland

honestly curious how the Arcane LoL characters would do, or is the hate not just turbo focused on Draven?

Teemo did pretty terrible in 2013, so I'd guess LoL in general would be weak. Dunno about the impact of something like Arcane.

Teemo is also very hated so might not be the best example. Draven pre rally is probably the better example.

The Draven who was getting doubled by Chie is also pretty bad!

Yeah I dunno, my thought was I think there’s evidence that Castlevania and Witcher’s Netflix series both helped out Alucard and Witcher 3 respectively so it wouldn’t shock me if Arcane, a better and arguably more popular show, helped out Jinx/Vi/Cait (who you can argue are the three most popular characters even before it came out)

They helped out things that were already popular. Arcane is a different case entirely.

Also the issue is that I think for people who are not already into League, the characters and Arcane itself may feel like a totally separate thing. Which is not really true but I think a lot of people think about them entirely separately.

I mean, I could see Jinx being boosted to merely bad fodder instead of utter garbage fodder like she would have been pre-Arcane.

Leonhart4 posted...

Dark Souls had been a sexy upset pick that looked increasingly more likely as the contest went along. When the match rolled around, Skyrim was still the clear favorite, but everyone acknowledged Dark Souls had a chance.

I was on Skyrim's side at the time. I feel like Dark Souls has aged better though, so I have to wonder which game wins now.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8039-semifinals-zelda-breath-of-the-wild-vs-super-smash-bros

Semifinals, which means we're finally down to one match per day! Kind of a waste here with an SFF match, although it was a little interesting at the start. Ultimate was actually above 40% at the freeze, so we were curious if it would be able to resist SFF.

Well, BotW put up a 71% update next, and then it was off to the races from there.

The hierarchy takes no prisoners.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1997-ruin-division-round-1-kefka-vs-mithos

The Ruin Division was essentially the make or break division of this contest because the other three had clear favorites, and this one had Kefka. There was a relatively even split between Kefka, Diablo, and Ridley for who would win, with Bison as a dark horse selection. This was Kefka's chance to solidify himself as the favorite.

His opponent's inclusion was a bit controversial in the sense that his identity as a villain is a late-game spoiler in Tales of Symphonia since he operates under another name (and totally different appearance) for most of the game.

As such, Kefka was expected to dominate for once, especially since he managed to avoid his lettuce picture and Mithos didn't look intimidating at all. The Oracle average was 70% here, and that's what Kefka managed for the first 30 minutes or so.

Unfortunately for Kefka, there was the rest of the match to worry about, as he has traditionally had one of the biggest dropoffs from the early vote of anyone, and that was on display here. By the end of the match, he had people wondering (until the next match started anyway) if he might be vulnerable against Wesker next round.

Mithos getting 36% on Kefka looks so weird. Sure ToS was recent back then, and Kefka was weaker, but still.

The lesson is that if you want normalcy, don't look to Kefka matches.

The best part is how we ended up getting a damn near direct comparison with Mithos and Lloyd since Lloyd would draw Wesker in the Summer contest, and somehow Mithos would end up looking better.

It's definitely one of the more inexplicable things we've seen, since Mithos is not exactly a villain you would expect to be on par with a protagonist.

(It's also a case of perspective, because if we had gotten Lloyd vs. Wesker before or without the Villains contest, I think a lot less of us would have seen Lloyd winning coming, but because we knew Mithos did better against a common opponent, virtually everyone on the board backed Lloyd.)

Leonhart4 posted...

Semifinals, which means we're finally down to one match per day! Kind of a waste here with an SFF match

Which has been the case often. Link vs. Mario in 2010, OoT vs. Super Mario RPG in 2015 (though that one was less predictable).

I’m still mad they spoiled the game with that inclusion. Normally I’m cool with that sort of thing but that’s a MAJOR spoiler.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I’m still mad they spoiled the game with that inclusion. Normally I’m cool with that sort of thing but that’s a MAJOR spoiler.

I highly suspect that they went with Mithos because there’s lots of official art of him, but next to nothing at the time of Yggdrasil. That, and CJayC probably didn’t play ToS.

I'm guessing he was nominated as "Mithos Yggdrasill" so CJayC just went off of the first name

I don't agree that they should focus on making the site better that some else said so we don't have another contest because of this. I mean in the last years has the site improved that much? Pretty sure no. Plus contests last less than 1 month anyways.
Too bad.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8040-semifinals-the-witcher-3-wild-hunt-vs-elder-scrolls-skyrim

This was a hyped showdown pre-contest, but by the time it rolled around, everyone accepted that Witcher 3 was going to win. Skyrim put up a fight early, but eventually Witcher pulled away for a fairly comfortable win to set up a finals showdown with BotW.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1998-ruin-division-round-1-luca-blight-vs-wesker

We had seen Luca Blight in SC2K4, and he had been quadrupled by Magus, so we knew he was weak. We didn't totally know what to expect from Wesker (who was listed only as "Wesker" in this contest instead of "Albert Wesker," for whatever that's worth).

After Kefka put up a dud against Mithos, there were some wondering if Wesker could give him a run for his money next round. That thought didn't last long, as Wesker couldn't even get 60% on Luca Blight. Kefka was a bit of a joke back then, but even he wasn't that bad. The 2004 X-Stats projected a 70% win for Kefka over Luca, so yeah, Wesker was in trouble, even against him.

And just think, we didn't even know that Luca Blight was very likely overrated in the stats.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8041-final-battle-zelda-breath-of-the-wild-vs-the-witcher-3-wild

Breath of the Wild did the completely expected and won fairly easily. This was 60/40 early on before rallying brought the final percentage down. It's hard to know exactly where it would have finished without the rallying, but it was clear that BotW was head and shoulders above everything else.

Probably 60-40. Respectable loss either way because BotW annihilated everything else.

When I was doing adjusted stats, setting it to 60-40 made everything on the right half of the bracket line up way better with the left half.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1999-ruin-division-round-1-albedo-vs-m-bison

Bison was the favorite, but nobody really expected this. The highest prediction in the Oracle was only 65% and the collective average was 55% for this one. Bison came out strong and was almost tripling Albedo early on, and he was above 70% for half the match. The result was the board shouting Street Fighter moves all day, and now Bison had to be taken seriously as a threat to the winner of Ridley/Diablo.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8090-bonus-battle-majoras-mask-vs-breath-of-the-wild

We got a fun bonus match between our two Game of the Decade winners with a match pic gimmick that most of us didn't realize was a thing early on because you had to pick your vote and wait for a few seconds for the Majora's Mask Moon or a Cucco to appear based on what you voted for.

Regardless, BotW put an SFF beat down on Majora's Mask. Hard to know how seriously to take the result when there were no actual contest stakes involved and no way to know how much SFF occurred. Unfortunately, we'll never get to see BotW in a full contest field, which is a real shame.

It was nice to see BotW win that so handily. New doesn't usually beat Old on GameGAQs. Helped validated the Game of the Decade 2 field as a whole.

I think part of Breath of the Wild winning so big is that it completely took the crown of 'weird' Zelda from Majora's Mask. It's less weird now that Tears of the Kingdom exists but Breath of the Wild was such a massive deviation from the series.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2000-ruin-division-round-1-ridley-vs-diablo

This was about as much of a tossup as it gets. Diablo had a one pick advantage in the Oracle and a 48.32% prediction percentage overall. It wasn't an exaggeration to say that your chances of winning money in this contest hinged on getting this match right.

The match was close for about 15 minutes, but once Diablo's lead eclipsed 100 votes, he left Ridley in the dust and never looked back.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I think part of Breath of the Wild winning so big is that it completely took the crown of 'weird' Zelda from Majora's Mask. It's less weird now that Tears of the Kingdom exists but Breath of the Wild was such a massive deviation from the series.

I think this is part of why I'd like to see Breath of the Wild in a contest now. Does TotK's existence dilute its strength at all or does it maintain beast status?

I don't think TotK hurts BotW at all. Maybe it would've in the 12 months after it came out, but BotW stands on its own.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I think part of Breath of the Wild winning so big is that it completely took the crown of 'weird' Zelda from Majora's Mask.

Breath of the Wild is different to the gameplay formula, but not 'weird'. Like at all. It's got the most accessible, typical Zelda aesthetic and tone imaginable.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8091-what-would-you-like-the-next-gamefaqs-bracket-battle-to-be

Oh right, I forgot to mention this bonus poll! Unfortunately, "no contests ever again" was the correct (unlisted) option. At least we were almost all in agreement that we didn't need to see Rivals again!

Villains II lol

People that voted villains either don't remember villains or they weren't around.

I'm just glad it beat Series because it was at least better than that one

Villains II could be a better contest now than it was then, especially if they played a bit looser with how they define villain

I think villains II would have been kinda interesting ish before remake/rebirth if you think Seph can be unseated

Bowser/Dorf actually is kinda interesting too

If the definition is looser it probably helps, though Mario wins easily if eligible.

It's still a worse character battle, those interesting matches can be set up regardless, but we'd either have a small bracket or an even more fodderish field, which is not exactly what would be needed to spark interest in contests.

ctesjbuvf posted...

If the definition is looser it probably helps, though Mario wins easily if eligible.

It depends on how seriously people take the prompt because Mario as a villain shouldn't be the strongest

Well that's true. Do you think people would consider that? He has plenty of room to spare.

Hopefully he wouldn't even get nominated in because who thinks of Mario when thinking of a villain? Even DK shouldnt get in

ctesjbuvf posted...

Well that's true. Do you think people would consider that? He has plenty of room to spare.

Well, we think they took the concept of Game of the Decade into account and that's part of what undermined Brawl at the end, so it's possible.

I don't really think it undermined Brawl any, at least it had several other things against it near the end so it can't be certain. It looked like a factor in GotD2 often enough but it seemed to matter more in capability to score big wins rather than switch results. Ultimate is the best example there.

I don't remember considering it in the first GotD at all actually. Are there any obvious instances that is not Brawl antivoting?

Nah, it definitely had an impact, even just on B8. There were rallying cries of "we can't have Brawl be our best game of the decade," as if it'd be an embarrassing outcome for the site where a Tetris piece won a Character Battle.

Generally voters don't change their mind based on the title of the contest - they simply vote for their favorites. I think Brawl was subject to some anti-votes at the end, but the effect was minor. It just so happened that a minor vote shift was enough to swing the final result in MM's favor.

For something like Mario in a Villains contest though, that would look so incredibly out-of-place that I think he would be noticeably weaker than in a standard contest. Problem is he still hierarchies Bowser and Ganondorf, and Sephiroth got 60-40d last time they met.

Imagine seeing Mario vs. Bowser in a Villains Contest and voting for Mario

Leonhart4 posted...

Imagine seeing Mario vs. Bowser in a Villains Contest and voting for Mario

You know they would !

The rule should be that you can only use Mario pics from DK Jr. for his matches