Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1380

LeonhartFour posted...

In fact, both of these matches were reminders of how strong of a year 2017 was in general since RE7 was also a game from that year. If we ever get Best Year in Gaming 2, watch out...!

It'd probably win the tournament if the previous winner got removed! Well, not guaranteed, but it's certainly the strongest post-2001 year here.

Well, since Breath of the Wild is a Switch 2 release, it could theoretically win Best Game of the 2020s.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Well, since Breath of the Wild is a Switch 2 release, it could theoretically win Best Game of the 2020s.

Only if it has some new content and a new subtitle to distinguish it from the original

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7985-division-2-round-2-resident-evil-2-vs-doom

Oh hey, it's a battle of games that have the exact same name as another game in the series! RE2 was still the favorite even after round 1, but people thought Doom would at least keep it close. Instead RE2 beat it pretty handily.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7986-division-2-round-2-fire-emblem-awakening-vs-bloodborne

Bloodborne pulled the Melee tactic of rallying in a match it was already clearly winning. It had about 55% when a rally boosted it up to nearly 58% by the end. This was a sign of things to come for Melee, but would it be the same for Bloodborne?

bloodborne is great but its fans act like its the best game in the series.

Sekiro II anydayyyy

I know I'm a weirdo because I'm not a fan of all the RPG stuff in the Dark Souls/Bloodborne/Elden Ring games, and actually prefer the focus on combat in Sekiro.

pjbasis posted...

bloodborne is great but its fans act like its the best game in the series.

And they are right to do so!

How dare fans think the thing they like is the best

pjbasis posted...

bloodborne is great but its fans act like its the best game in the series.

Sekiro II anydayyyy

It’s that or Elden Ring. Sekiro has clear flaws and goes from way too difficult to way too easy once you learn to exploit them.

UltimaterializerX posted...

from way too difficult to way too easy once you learn to exploit them.

I agree it gets too easy, that's why it needs a sequel! Usually they get harder

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7987-division-3-round-2-super-smash-bros-ultimate-vs-zelda-link

This result didn't teach us anything about Smash Ultimate's strength or its chances against Odyssey in a couple rounds, but it's rare to see a Zelda game lose by this much in a 1-on-1 environment.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7988-division-3-round-2-marvels-spider-man-vs-minecraft

At the time, people bashed this as a bad performance by Spider-Man because it did only a little better than Halo had done in 2015, and then it had gotten quadrupled by FFVII next round.

I made this same counterargument back then (because I believe Spider-Man is legit), but Halo is the absolute perfect opponent for FFVII because it saps away the anti-votes. We saw the raw, unadulterated FFVII 2015 strength in that match, and that was the result. Spider-Man's next match would validate that it had legit strength, but more on that when the time comes.

Minecraft 2020 doesn't have to be the same as Minecraft 2015 anyway.

KamikazePotato posted...

Minecraft 2020 doesn't have to be the same as Minecraft 2015 anyway.

There's also this, although there was no real way to know.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7989-division-3-round-2-octopath-traveler-vs-shovel-knight

This is definitely a contender for best match of the contest because we had multiple lead changes and comebacks, as well as hours where the two were basically deadlocked at 50/50. It culminated in a final hour tweet by the Shovel Knight developer that gave the game the push it needed to nab the win. It was the only indie game to reach round 3.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7990-division-3-round-2-devil-may-cry-5-vs-super-mario-odyssey

On the other hand, this was much less exciting. It did continue to fuel the Odyssey > Ultimate flames, as it had seemingly looked like the stronger game for both rounds now.

Leonhart4 posted...

It culminated in a final hour tweet by the Shovel Knight developer that gave the game the push it needed to nab the win.

I forgot about that. Looking at the final hour vote totals, Octopath probably wins without that tweet. Sheesh.

Yeah it changed it for sure, Octopath was about to pull off if I recall correctly.

Yacht Games wrote clearly they would rally against Odyssey as well. I didn't believe they would succeed, but my oracle prediction is terrible because I was expecting it to do a blow to Odyssey's win percentage without managing to make actual cuts.

Then they forgot about it.

You forgot to mention who got the dev to rally for Shovel Knight.

>____________>

(sorry, I do honestly regret it)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7991-division-4-round-2-grand-theft-auto-v-vs-cuphead

While most expected GTAV to win, we were hoping Cuphead could be competitive, and it was...for about two minutes. GTA had over 54% by the freeze and gradually climbed up for a 60/40 win. Fun fact: This was only the second time anything GTA made the third round. The other instance was Vercetti in SC2K3.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7992-division-4-round-2-persona-4-golden-vs-red-dead-redemption

There were some RDR pickers, but most of the board backed P4G here. Persona 4 got off to a fast start with 56% at the freeze, but Red Dead Redemption quickly brought the percentages down. However, it could never make a serious charge at the lead. P4 held firm at around a 200-400 vote lead most of the way, and any time RDR made a few consistent cuts, the damage was undone in short order. There were some Reddit rallies for Persona 4 that probably helped in that regard, but ultimately, there was never a serious comeback attempt despite how close the match was the entire way.

It got rallied too? Off with it's head

I'm happy I picked that division well but P4G probably shouldn't have been eligible.

I didn't mind P4G being included, but I was fairly sour grapes about what Pokemon HGSS ended up doing, so I can sympathize.

EDIT: I also would have been very sour grapes if P4G beat Xenoblade so really I was like 150~ votes away from joining that camp anyway.

If only P4G had beaten Xenoblade

Pokemon beating Automata sucked though

Nah, Xenoblade winning was the best outcome of that division.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Nah, Xenoblade winning was the best outcome of that division.

No way, getting SFF'd by Smash makes for messier X-Stats

(And it's not as good as P4G to boot)

Well, at least Xenoblade is a 2010s game.

Xenoblade: DE hypothetically could enter Game of the 2020s too!

Xenolade, GotY 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020

UltimaterializerX posted...

You forgot to mention who got the dev to rally for Shovel Knight.

>____________>

(sorry, I do honestly regret it)

You helped the better game win, don't worry.

HGSS is much more a new game than P4G is.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7993-division-4-round-2-xenoblade-chronicles-vs-overwatch

You could chalk up Xenoblade's round 1 performance to SFF to a degree, but it was hard to ignore this. The Oracle average was a doubling and it came close to a tripling. It was now a clear favorite to win next round.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7994-division-4-round-2-ori-and-the-blind-forest-vs-fire-emblem

Especially when coupled with this performance. Ori might have been the strongest indie game, but this was still a clear step below what Xenoblade had done.

ctesjbuvf posted...

HGSS is much more a new game than P4G is.

Yeah I was going to say, HGSS is a full remake, it had every right to be there even if I didn’t want it to beat Nier and would have preferred Black&White as Pokémon representation. Definitely a lot more new than P4G, which won with reddit and hentai rallies and prevented interesting matchups.

"Preventing interesting matchups" is nonsense because P4G had two of the best matches of the contest and you weren't going to replace it with something better. RDR would've beaten GTAV and would've lost to Xenoblade just the same, so let's not act like P4G robbed a stronger game of a win. If anything, they were equal.

You can complain about the rallies or whether it should've been included at all, but acting like it didn't give us great matches or you'd have gotten something equivalent by replacing it with a similarly seeded game is absurd.

When the P4 Remake comes out it will be eligible for GotD3

…well it would be but it’s probably just gonna be a poll after the 2029 goty polls

Actually, I'd wager RDR puts up less of a fight than P4G because then Xenoblade gets all the B8 support and isn't splitting bandwagon power

So yeah if your argument is "we want good matches," P4G delivered more than any replacement would have

We don’t know what would have happened with RDR vs GTAV because the Rockstar hierarchy has never been explored. Would RDR have definitely beaten GTAV? We do not know that. And if RDR, GTAV, and Xenoblade all looked the same anyway it stands to reason that we still would have likely gotten close matches anyway. In fact all three of the existing matches were close to the point where Xenoblade’s victory was not assured. Absolutely no guarantee it wins the division if P4G isn’t there and doesn’t rally from which counter-rallies emerged.

B8 isn't letting Xenoblade lose to Rockstar. Rockstar never wins that match on this site (aside from Kefka/Vercetti, I guess, but that's 20 years ago and it took blatant cheating to get it close to begin with). I have no doubt about that.

If GTAV rSFFs RDR, then it loses even more easily to Xenoblade. Again, argue against P4G's inclusion on other merits. Don't tell me it robbed us of better matches because it didn't. We lost out on a hypothetical hierarchy match, so what.

Well I can give you a good counter argument to that as I was one of the main ones counter-rallying for Xenoblade against P4G, yet I had GTAV in my bracket and would not have done this if that matchup had happened, as well as lacking the motivation of stopping the contest “villain”. So yeah B8 definitely could let Xenoblade lose to Rockstar, I’m one of the biggest Xenoblade fans on this board and I would not have helped it win.

You are one of many. I don't think it would've needed rallies to beat GTAV or RDR anyway.

Remember we are talking about a whopping 1% difference from the bottom of those four to the top. Just random day-to-day variation could change the results. They’re all basically on the same level. Had there not been P4G and the rallies, I suspect RDR might actually take the division as that is a game with a lot of enthusiast passion behind it that GTAV doesn’t necessarily have.

I'm split about Persona 4 Golden exactly because it had interesting matches. But it should not have been included m.

I don't doubt replacing two random games with OoT 3D and MM 3D would have sparked more debate either, but I am happy enough they were kept out.

Those enthusiasts didn't show up against P4G when they'd have made a difference. I don't think they'd have shown up against Xenoblade either.

We have no concrete numbers on how many rallied votes that P4G actually brought in. I doubt it was much more than what the final margin wound up being, if that, so there's no guarantee RDR wins even without rallies.

P4G vs. Xenoblade is one of two matches that switch outcome with registered user bonus. (The other is RE2 vs. Bloodborne). Such numbers makes its rally powers seem clear enough.

The difference probably is that board 8 cares a lot about Persona and not much about RDR. It was b8ers making the small rallies needed to keep RDR away. I am not sure RDR is stronger than GTAV even naturally because P4G starts riding a bandwagon as the contest went on.

ctesjbuvf posted...

P4G vs. Xenoblade is one of two matches that switch outcome with registered user bonus. (The other is RE2 vs. Bloodborne). Such numbers makes its rally powers seem clear enough.

Does it though? Those were just two ridiculously close matches. Xenoblade only had 100 more registered votes, but when the margin is that close, it makes a difference. Persona 4 only had 100 more unregistered votes, too, which is where you'd expect to see a big disparity if it was a big rally.

Like P4G had a 600 vote edge there over RDR, so you can argue the rallies helped there, but it's probably still razor thin without it because RDR's registered voter lead is only about 100 votes there as well.

Well yeah this is the whole of it, they were all so close together we cannot make definitive statements about it. Seriously that does show that it was really good bracket-making by Allen, as much as I do disagree with P4G’s inclusion it is probably the best division he’s ever made.

Leonhart4 posted...

Does it though? Those were just two ridiculously close matches. Xenoblade only had 100 more registered votes, but when the margin is that close, it makes a difference. Persona 4 only had 100 more unregistered votes, too, which is where you'd expect to see a big disparity if it was a big rally.

Like P4G had a 600 vote edge there over RDR, so you can argue the rallies helped there, but it's probably still razor thin without it because RDR's registered voter lead is only about 100 votes there as well.

I seem to recall seeing the rallies come up and see their effects when following the updates live as they caught traction! P4G had a couple of attempts early against Xenoblade and then an attempt at a push near the end.

I am not sure it is the best designed division but it ended up being the best. Xenoblade beats P4G with more ease earlier in the contest.

The 2015 Games Contest bracket in general was excellent. Too bad Undertale ruined potentially the best division in particular, but I don't hold that against Allen. It really could've been his magnum opus but rallies make everything better.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7995-division-5-round-2-the-witcher-3-wild-hunt-vs-mass-effect-3

If you weren't taking Witcher 3 seriously as a potential finalist before, you were now. The Oracle average was about 70% and it nearly got the quadrupling. I do think this is just a terrible matchup for ME3, too, but either way, you didn't feel great about your bracket at this point if you didn't have Witcher 3 in the finals.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7996-division-5-round-2-stardew-valley-vs-super-mario-galaxy-2

By and large, indie games fell flat on their face in round 2, but I think this was a solid showing for Stardew Valley, all things considered. It outdid the Oracle average by about 5% and Galaxy 2 would go on to put up a decent number on Witcher 3 next round, too.

I think that's the match when I realized it would make the final. You're right. Any thought of Skyrim or Dark Souls beating it were dead when that match happened.

Posted this before, but it bears repeating:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6205-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year-final-vote

Those two games have raced off in opposite directions since then.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7997-division-5-round-2-fallout-new-vegas-vs-dark-souls-iii

Dark Souls III was actually a dark horse upset pick here, but this match wasn't as close as the final margin might indicate. New Vegas had 57% early on, but there was apparently a rally for Dark Souls that helped narrow the final margin but never seriously threatened to make a comeback.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7998-division-5-round-2-nioh-vs-god-of-war

It's rare when you score a tripling and it still doesn't feel good enough. After Witcher 3 nearly quadrupled Mass Effect 3, GoW needed something more than this to feel like it still had a chance.

Kinda surprised, but not unhappily so, that Dark Souls I is considerably stronger than III