Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1380

Scheduling notes for when contest retrospectives begin for 2025 (because there are a bunch!):

Game of the Decade 2 - Ongoing!
Villains - 5/7
SC2K5 - 7/19
Game of the Decade 1 - 10/20
Games 2015: 11/5

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

~*Most Surprising Results*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

~*Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7933-division-3-round-1-marvels-spider-man-vs-dead-space-2

I had high expectations for Spider-Man in this contest, and I think the game did pretty well. It's just a shame we'll never see Spider-Man and Batman in a Character Battle!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7934-division-3-round-1-minecraft-vs-dota-2

There was some debate about whether Minecraft should've been allowed into this contest because it was technically available in 2009, albeit in beta. Some argued Allen used a double standard here that allowed him to say League of Legends was ineligible for a similar reason.

We had seen Minecraft do decently against Halo in 2015. We all expected it to beat Dota 2, but no one was sure just how weak it would be. Minecraft beat its Oracle average by a full 10% here, but no one really took that as a sign it could threaten Spider-Man next round.

I wanted to see Skyward Sword in to see it get destroyed.

I think it got off easy by missing the contest.

Honestly I doubt that, Skyward Sword would probably have been in the general vicinity of ALBW. There are a lot of people who liked that game and the Zelda name is strong.

I think Nintendo had a rough bracket placement in particular. With the big three Switch games having paths straight into each other. Mairo Kart 8 was an exception and had one of the more interesting paths this contest. HGSS also had debatale matches.

There are always entrants that get screwed by placement, it can't be avoided, but this was among our most cookie cutter brackets despite how very little of it had been in a field before.

The above two posts disagreeing entirely is a good example of the same issue. Having lesser Nintendo games in the lower seeds would have likely given more debated matches.

Would Steve get a Smash boost?

And then we'd all get mad when Skyward Sword beat an actual good game like it's nothing

I imagine Skyward Sword would be the equivalent of something like Galaxy 2 in this contest

It'd beat 85% of the games in the contest and no non-Nintendo game will blow it out

Like yeah, sure, we missed out on a relatively strong game for this contest, but I'm also fine with other things getting a chance to have more matches

Leonhart4 posted...

And then we'd all get mad when Skyward Sword beat an actual good game like it's nothing

Yeah that's the other side of the sword

Well, what if we had had Link Between Worlds/Skyward Sword in R1?

Yesmar_ posted...

Well, what if we had had Link Between Worlds/Skyward Sword in R1?

As long as the winner faces Breath of the Wild

Skyward Sword has performed dreadfully in every poll it's been in. I think it would lose easily to ALBW. Which still puts it above a good chunk of this field, but, whatever. If a mainline Zelda game couldn't get more nominations than stuff like INSIDE in a limited field, then people clearly don't actually give a s*** about it. Like Leon said - who wants to see a brand name figurehead beating beloved obscure games?

I only wanted more debatable matches.

But I am still not convinced and never will be that the bracket did not have series restrictions.

That's fine, but I think the only way Skyward Sword's inclusion would have improved the contest was if it had lost in embarrassing fashion.

It's always our go to example of a snub for whatever reason.

But hey, if I can look back at SotC knocking out MGS games as a cool contest moment, what's the worst Skyward Sword could've done!

SotC is a Cinderella underdog story!

Skyward Sword going on the same run would have been met with much more annoyance.

Leonhart4 posted...

That's fine, but I think the only way Skyward Sword's inclusion would have improved the contest was if it had lost in embarrassing fashion.

my position since day 1

KamikazePotato posted...

If a mainline Zelda game couldn't get more nominations than stuff like INSIDE in a limited field, then people clearly don't actually give a s*** about it.

I still think it's possible, perhaps even probable that Skyward Sword did get more nominations than the likes of INSIDE (notwithstanding the other metrics used to seed 2020's field, which the former should have had at least a modest advantage over the latter in). Certainly agree with ctes on the point of series restrictions, but I also want to ask you and anyone else here who has some insight on the Zero Escape fanbase a related, more specific question:

Why would 999 have gone from a 15-seed in 2015 to not in 2020 at all when VLR went from the same 15-seed in 2015 to a 10-seed in 2020? ...that might sound like a leading question, but it's one I've been genuinely befuddled over ever since the 2020 bracket came out, and I wouldn't be surprised if I'm simply missing an explanation unrelated to series restrictions.

I choose to believe it's because people recognized VLR is the superior game

Or it's possible people forgot 999 came out in the 2010s

Also maybe now that Allen isn't the admin, we can ask him if there was an unspoken series limit and he'll finally tell us the answer

We should tbh!

The biggest hint to me is that I simply refuse to believe the Pokémon fanbase was so in line about all nominating the one same game that is barely remembered as a game of the 10s (partly because it's not in Japan) so that it got a #3 seed while not a single other game from the franchise made the cut.

Did we even discuss today's PotD? Because I was not expecting a re-release of Xenoblade X to be in 1st place.

I didn't realize I hadn't voted yet!

Wow that's a pretty weak first quarter of the year

Kingdom Come 2 and/or Monster Hunter Wilds would be rocking this poll anywhere else on the internet.

Alas, we are GameFAQs.

Man, how bad would the field be for Game of the 2020s? As much as I would love to do another contest, maybe not that one.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Man, how bad would the field be for Game of the 2020s? As much as I would love to do another contest, maybe not that one.

Baldur's Gate 3 might be as big of a favorite as BotW was

Well, I guess there's time for the next big Zelda game before the end of the decade

KamikazePotato posted...

Skyward Sword has performed dreadfully in every poll it's been in. I think it would lose easily to ALBW. Which still puts it above a good chunk of this field, but, whatever. If a mainline Zelda game couldn't get more nominations than stuff like INSIDE in a limited field, then people clearly don't actually give a s*** about it. Like Leon said - who wants to see a brand name figurehead beating beloved obscure games?

Skyward Sword hasn’t been seen in a proper poll since less than a year after it came out, the Zelda series polls are useless for it. Looking at the actual competitive polls, it certainly did not look dreadful. It doubled Uncharted 3 and then beat Arkham City with Pokémon Black&White in the poll to be the number two game that year. After that in the Wii poll it came second place. For a while at least it was strong, then it was more or less never seen again. Let us not forget, complaining on the internet is not representative of anything, and Skyward Sword is generally well regarded outside of that space when it’s not being compared to some of the best games ever made.

KamikazePotato posted...

Kingdom Come 2 and/or Monster Hunter Wilds would be rocking this poll anywhere else on the internet.

Alas, we are GameFAQs.

Oh, I don’t know about rocking it. This just looks like a weak year, and is more indicative of a weaker Monster Hunter than World than anything else. I don’t think Xenoblade would be winning elsewhere but there would probably be a similar spread of votes with no real favourite. There have most likely been no game of the year contenders released yet this year.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Man, how bad would the field be for Game of the 2020s? As much as I would love to do another contest, maybe not that one.

This decade hasn’t looked that different except for 2021. There is Baldur’s Gate 3 which looks like it could be one of the strongest games in the history of this website, Tears of the Kingdom which is not far behind that, Elden Ring which is very strong, and then some other games that look quite good. This is probably a stronger first half than the last decade had.

LightningStrikes posted...

It doubled Uncharted 3 and then beat Arkham City with Pokémon Black&White in the poll to be the number two game that year. After that in the Wii poll it came second place.

None of these are even remotely good results for a mainline Zelda game. In fact, aside from Tears of the Kingdom, it's the only mainline Zelda game not to take Game of the Year on this site, and TotK at least looked respectable against Baldur's Gate 3. Zelda is supposed to throttle polls when it comes out. Even a handheld Zelda beat The Last Of Us! Skyward Sword barely escaped the doubling versus Skyrim. Then it almost got doubled by Brawl in a different poll. It also ranked second-to-last in the Favorite Zelda polls.

That's enough strength to skate by the fodder and low-midcarders of GotD 2, sure, but against actual competition it would have shown its true colors.

LightningStrikes posted...

Let us not forget, complaining on the internet is not representative of anything

I also don't think this is true at all. GameFAQs tends to align very strongly with Complaining On The Internet. Fallout 4 reviewed well, sold like gangbusters, but it got backlash from the hardcore fans, and it ended up being significantly weaker than Fallout 3 / New Vegas. Mass Effect 3 is clearly much weaker than its predecessors. The Last Of Us II was dead in the water here. Overwatch 2 may as well not exist. The list goes on and on.

Conversely, games that are lauded by the internet tend to do well here. Elden Ring, Baldur's Gate 3, etc. GameFAQs has a lot of voters that don't necessarily play every game, but do pay attention to gaming news as a whole. It's easy to click on a poll and vote when everyone else is telling you the game is good.

I mean that was Skyrim at the height of Skyrimania, with a major first party Nintendo game in the poll with it. This is where a final poll would have been very useful! Would expect it ends up more like a 60/40 for Skyrim which is like, not bad especially then. Honestly I don’t think many Zelda games released while contests have been a thing would have beaten Skyrim in that poll.

Now compared to other 3D Zelda games? Sure. It is definitely weaker. That is kind of my point, it is a worthy game in its own right just getting compared to the best of the best. Will say that my ALBW-ish projection stands and that seems fair for its strength.

SFF aside, I would protect ALBW to indirectly get like 56% on Skyward Sword. For a different comparison, I think Spider-Man would have beaten Skyward Sword (though it'd be close). Something like Dragon Quest XI would've gotten the job done too.

See also I would just say that divorced from all the Complaining On The Internet, Mass Effect 3 just wasn’t quite as good as the other two even discounting the ending and the reception reflects that. It’s not like it’s fodder or anything. Same with Fallout 4 (did that get much capital c Complaining?) also. I will give you The Last of Us Part II, the Complaining definitely hit critical mass with that one. Time will tell if it overcomes it with distance from the leak eventually.

Well, I think it's hard for western games to blow out Nintendo games. Witcher 3 could barely manage 60% on Galaxy 2, and that game lost to ME1 in 2015.

Mass Effect 3 was the second best game of the decade imhotbqh

I'd find it hard to believe the game's popularity wasn't affected by backlash

It's important to remember that a large portion of voters aren't directly familiar with one or even both entrants in a contest match, and they'll get votes based on reputation (or brackets)

I see Fallout 4 being routinely cited as the beginning of Bethesda's decline. I personally liked the game a lot, but peak Fallout 3 would have easily beaten Mass Effect 2, and Mass Effect 2 crushed Fallout 4. It's retroactively hilarious that F4 got close to Witcher 3 in that GotY poll way back when.

Mass Effect 3 was also just a worse game than it's predecessors, but the Complaining really, really didn't help. It's like a debuff. There's the game's intrinsic strength, and then there's the game in a contest setting where lots of voters are voting based on vibes and hearsay. If you haven't played any of the games in a poll, but you've heard one game committed sins against mankind, and you're the type of person that likes to votes anyway because voting is fun...yeah.

Actually, it's a shame we never got Cyberpunk in polls or contests. Tracking its progress would have been fascinating to watch as the awful launch was (somewhat) reversed by Edgerunners + Patch Updates + Phantom Liberty. It's not often that a game rehabilitates itself after the Complaining sets in...especially since the complaining was very well-deserved on launch! Same with No Man's Sky.

KamikazePotato posted...

Mass Effect 3 was also just a worse game than it's predecessors, but the Complaining really, really didn't help. It's like a debuff. There's the game's intrinsic strength, and then there's the game in a contest setting where lots of voters are voting based on vibes and hearsay. If you haven't played any of the games in a poll, but you've heard one game committed sins against mankind, and you're the type of person that likes to votes anyway because voting is fun...yeah.

If nothing else, the "controversy" around Mass Effect 3 being a reason some might participate in a wave of support against it is definitely something that had a small bit of causing UNDERTALE to snowball to what it did.

ME3 rocks and is certainly a better game than Skyward Sword!

LightningStrikes posted...

Oh, I don’t know about rocking it. This just looks like a weak year, and is more indicative of a weaker Monster Hunter than World than anything else. I don’t think Xenoblade would be winning elsewhere but there would probably be a similar spread of votes with no real favourite. There have most likely been no game of the year contenders released yet this year.

Split Fiction is spectacular in every way. It's been selling great, the fan reception has been pretty much universally positive, and it's reviews are great too. Despite that, it's doing quite poorly in today's poll. I'd call it a GotY contender, especially since it's being more positively received than It Takes Two, a GotY winner.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7935-division-3-round-1-undertale-vs-octopath-traveler

It's the Best Game Ever, but it's not even the Game of the Year or the Game of the Decade! There was certainly a lot of interest to see what Undertale would do here, especially since it was given a winnable fourpack. It was the overall favorite to do so, but many thought Shovel Knight would be the bigger challenge. This was the biggest upset of round 1 in terms of prediction percentage, with only 21.58% of brackets picking Octopath Traveler. Undertale did well out of the gate, presumably on the back of bracket votes, but it didn't take long for us to realize it was in trouble. Octopath gradually pulled away for a drama-free victory.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7936-division-3-round-1-shovel-knight-vs-dragons-dogma

There was some debate before the contest about which indie game in the field would be the strongest, and Shovel Knight was in that discussion, even if you didn't think it would be the #1 game. It came out of the gate strong with nearly 70% early on before settling into the mid-60s, which was still an impressive showing.

If 2015 never happened, I think we would have been praising Undertale for its performance. Then again, without 2015, Undertale is probably even weaker here.

MetalmindStats posted...

I still think it's possible, perhaps even probable that Skyward Sword did get more nominations than the likes of INSIDE (notwithstanding the other metrics used to seed 2020's field, which the former should have had at least a modest advantage over the latter in). Certainly agree with ctes on the point of series restrictions,

Hmm, on the other hand, the idea that Skyward Sword simply failed to make a field with a 14-seed Xenoblade Chronicles 2 seems very reasonable, perhaps even likely...

I think for me, the best argument against series restrictions - and one that compels me more and more the more I ponder on it - is rooted in nominator psychology. 2020 had only 10 nominations per user, a format which naturally favors games a limited bucket of nominators is passionate about (e.g. INSIDE) over games a wide sweep of nominators is not so passionate about (e.g. Skyward Sword and Xenoblade 2). That seems to me to be a rather obvious and surface-level observation, though -- what's compelled me to make this post is that it was specifically (up to) 10 games per user being nominated for a GotD contest very soon after the decade's end.

In such a format, I think the most natural way for most nominators to select their games was quite likely to be by coming up with their top 10 picks for game of the decade, and not nearly everyone would have known what their top 10 games of the decade were before thinking of/searching for games they loved. At least in my experience, this GotD framing leaves listmakers (nominators in this case) likely to choose only one game to represent a series they loved multiple games in and to factor in GotD respect in their decision-making. And where the likes of 3D Mario, Persona, and Red Dead had two similarly beloved and respected entries, Zelda in general and especially 3D Zelda in particular (as well as Xenoblade) did not.

I'm still confused by the combination of 3-seed HGSS and completely absent 999, however. Both are DS games with 2009 original releases in Japan (thank you ctes for bringing that up for HGSS and Leon for making me realize that for 999). Thus, I'd think that HGSS presumably being the highest-placing Pokémon game in the sum of the metrics 2020's selection committee evaluated would have correlated with 999 making the field, on the theory that neither game's platform + original release year mattered much. Conversely, it seems to me that 999's absence should have correlated with a different Pokémon game having higher totaled metrics than HGSS, on the theory that both games' platform + original release year did matter quite a bit.

I know one of my thoughts with these date cutoff things is to think of the earliest and latest game eligible.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7937-division-3-round-1-devil-may-cry-5-vs-dkc-tropical-freeze

This was one of the times we got owned by the casuals. DMC5 had a 70% prediction percentage overall, but Tropical Freeze was the Guru favorite. The argument for DKC was easy. It's Nintendo, DK had experienced a Renaissance in 2018 (presumably on the backs of these new DKC games), and the game had just been ported to the Switch. DMC had a spotty contest history in terms of its games, and Dante never wins debated matches. Also, while DMC5 was well received, it was hard to tell how much damage DmC had done to the brand. Well, it was close for about 15 minutes, and then DMC5 rolled to an Ulti-style destruction.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7938-division-3-round-1-super-mario-odyssey-vs-mortal-kombat-11

It's hard for a Mario game to outdo its Oracle by 10% in a match, but that's what Odyssey did here. Suddenly, Smash Ultimate was on notice because Odyssey had beaten MK11 harder than Smash had beaten Tekken 7, and Mortal Kombat is a bigger brand than Tekken. I'll push back on that a little bit though. Tekken 7 was a really well received entry, and MK11 was the weakest of the reboot trilogy. I still have no idea how this one got in over MK9 especially or even 10. Recency bias, I guess!

I'm still baffled Tropical Freeze lost that easily.

I feel like Tropical Freeze is more of a meme about it being expensive on the Switch and that hurt its growth there

Wii U in general was pretty spotty this contest (apart from MK8 but that is different)

idk Undertale might have been stronger without 2015. How many people voted against it because of that?

Contests mentioned on another board

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/400-current-events/80959346

shane15 posted...

Contests mentioned on another board

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/400-current-events/80959346

Ten Character Battles and there are still people who think FFVII always won

Leonhart4 posted...

Ten Character Battles and there are still people who think FFVII always won

Honestly incredible

GameFAQs users still live in the year 2003.

I'm one of the joked about people here on GameFAQS that doesn't play new games anymore, and DMC5 > Tropical Freeze was one of the only two Guru upsets I correctly predicted. Guess being a casual for once paid off. The other one was Nioh winning, which I'm pretty sure I picked because I thought it was Nier.