Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1379

pjbasis posted...

Really the Switch is the main villain for showing up right when we had our last character battle.

It was over a year and a half old. Also, no? When you make an incredibly popular console a lot of people love that is not being a villain. It is not like Nintendo characters were the only ones to get stronger, look at Kratos (wasted on Pikachu in round 2) for instance. The secret is making popular new games that are well received by the audience! Therefore no wonder Square struggled in that contest sorry not sorry.

Would Melee be rallyable still? I feel like the melee scene died off a cliff post covid for many ressons

Didn't it grow bigger than Ultimate again since then?

LightningStrikes posted...

It is not like Nintendo characters were the only ones to get stronger, look at Kratos (wasted on Pikachu in round 2) for instance.

I'm not sure 36.50% on Pikachu indicates some sizable boost for Kratos!

LightningStrikes posted...

It was over a year and a half old.

When Smash comes out is when I consider there to be a new Nintendo console

Switch was still the big thing at the point of that contest. It was pretty much universally loved at the time riding on big releases in the first year and of course the upcomming Smash.

LiquidOshawott posted...

Would Melee be rallyable still? I feel like the melee scene died off a cliff post covid for many ressons

Tweeting at M2K is all you'd need to do since he used this site for years. Our 2025 votals would only need a few hundred extra to secure a victory, so you don't need something to swamp the site either

Leonhart4 posted...

I'm not sure 36.50% on Pikachu indicates some sizable boost for Kratos!

It does actually. He went from 26.2% on Mega Man to about 36.5% on Mega Man! That is a big increase, possibly the biggest that contest for someone not from Zelda even. Just wasted.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Switch was still the big thing at the point of that contest. It was pretty much universally loved at the time riding on big releases in the first year and of course the upcomming Smash.

The Switch has been the big thing basically since it launched! Absolutely wild success story.

LightningStrikes posted...

It does actually. He went from 26.2% on Mega Man to about 36.5% on Mega Man! That is a big increase, possibly the biggest that contest for someone not from Zelda even. Just wasted.

Are we basing that on 2013? I wouldn't take that as a baseline for Kratos because he has never been that weak in any other contest. 36.50% on Pikachu kinda falls in line with where he usually is (he got 45% on Charizard in 2010 and beat decent characters in 4-ways, he put up good numbers on Alucard and Ryu in 2005 and 2006).

Oh Kratos’s 2013 weakness was legit. That contest happened at a time when people were beyond done with that franchise. Ascension had effectively finished it off for a while. Even going back to his earlier peak he still looked better in 2018. So if you weaken a lot then go past your peak that’s pretty impressive, Lara did the same thing. Both of whom had reboots people really liked!

you're good at fitting data to the conclusions you want, respect

That’s literally all these topics are. See also all of the misplaced optimism about Snake for the last 19 years! None of this is science. It’s just hypothesising on extremely limited data for fun.

But Kratos looked terrible in both 2013 matches anyway. Did not seem like a fluke.

I was only half joking

I believe FFVIII was the second strongest FF game on the site at its peak (fourways)

LightningStrikes posted...

Even going back to his earlier peak he still looked better in 2018.

Did he? He was 23.12% on Link. The characters around him are people like Shadow the Hedgehog, Rosalina, Magus, Ness.

I'd be more likely to consider 2013 a one-off weird year. I guess you can argue GoW got him back to where he used to be, but even that number isn't impressive. It certainly isn't clearly above where he was before. In the 2008 X-Stats, for instance, he's at 24.50%, so basically a little above where he was in 2018. So yeah, it's basically a wash. It's not a big boost past his previous peak by any means.

That's assuming Link didn't SFF Pikachu at all, right?
I think this unlikely.
Also it implies Scorpion is like fodder-line instead of a sorta-unimpressive midcarder and he's always been the latter so...

It feels a bit like splitting hairs if we’re being honest especially given the weirdness of the 4-way matches, as either way he looked a lot better than the last time and it was frustrating to see that squandered on probably the strongest character outside of the Legends bracket in round 2. So the point stand even if he was marginally stronger in 2008!

Though just to emphasise about 2013: it wasn’t just the Mega Man match. He looked really bad in round 1 as well. Only two matches but that just makes it more annoying!

AxemRedRanger posted...

That's assuming Link didn't SFF Pikachu at all, right?
I think this unlikely.
Also it implies Scorpion is like fodder-line instead of a sorta-unimpressive midcarder and he's always been the latter so...

This is adjusted for SFF. Scorpion was 20.02% in 2008 and 21.22% in 2018. He's always been in the 20-25% range, so there's nothing off about that. Auron was getting 65% on him back in 2004.

LightningStrikes posted...

It feels a bit like splitting hairs if we’re being honest especially given the weirdness of the 4-way matches, as either way he looked a lot better than the last time and it was frustrating to see that squandered on probably the strongest character outside of the Legends bracket in round 2. So the point stand even if he was marginally stronger in 2008!

I don't think you can call a low midcarder "squandered." Losing in round 2 is usually where someone of Kratos's strength loses!

Well we will never know, will we, that’s the whole point.

LightningStrikes posted...

Well we will never know, will we, that’s the whole point.

What's there to know? There's no reason to suspect that Pikachu performance isn't indicative of his actual strength.

Like I guess he could have been interesting in Geralt's division where there was no standout character besides Auron, but he was hardly wasted.

Well yeah, or Alucard’s. That is a quarter of the bracket! I haven’t seen the x-stats rankings lately because the site is broken but surely Kratos beats or is at least competitive with half or more of the characters who made it to round 2.

Kratos would've lost to Alucard pretty easily. I doubt he beats Kefka, Sora, Red, or Big Boss either. He's a step below all those guys.

Heck, he could've lost in round 1 to someone like Crash!

I found six fourpacks in 2018 where you can insert Kratos in and he could beat every character in it (and in some of them I'm not totally sure or he wouldn't win handily). I'll list them based on who won the fourpack:

Wario
Phoenix Wright
KOS-MOS
Amaterasu
Tails
Bayonetta

Still doesn't really feel like wasted potential!

I would rather see kratos go to r3 than Wario or Tails so a slight waste

Tails making it to round 3 for the first time was pretty cool

Wario is whatever

I’d like to see Tidus or Knuckles get there.

At first I was like how did KOSMOS get there then I remembered the memes

Dudunsparce posted...

At first I was like how did KOSMOS get there then I remembered the memes

And it was also one of the weakest non-2002 fourpacks of all time

It's amazing that it only took me a few seconds to remember TheStupidRaptor's obsession with KOS-MOS that year. Not often you get a troll that late in our history to make an impression.

Oh hey, a GoW playrate poll, nice timing

I never know how to answer these polls. Could I produce a copy of God of War PS2 on short notice? No. Do I know there is a copy in a box at my mom's house? Yes.

I think my sibling has the PS2 copy, but the HD PS3 version is on my shelf so I took the latter despite feeling I own the original as well.

50% playrate for the first game? Not bad

The GotD2 retrospective will begin next week. I'm trying to figure out how I want to do it since there's four matches a day most of the way. Should I post all four at once or just disperse them throughout the day? Matches also began at 8 P.M. so I could start then or I could just wait until midnight anyway.

Yeah this playrate is pretty impressive, looks like a series with a lead who deserves a debatable match!

Leonhart4 posted...

The GotD2 retrospective will begin next week. I'm trying to figure out how I want to do it since there's four matches a day most of the way. Should I post all four at once or just disperse them throughout the day? Matches also began at 8 P.M. so I could start then or I could just wait until midnight anyway.

Four at once sounds like a lot imo so dispersing may work if you can fit it into your schedule. Plus it should generate more discussion as well.

Maybe post twice a day with two matches each time?

KamikazePotato posted...

Maybe post twice a day with two matches each time?

Yeah, that might be the best option just to avoid spamming the topic with matches

Not that we have much else to discuss so I guess it wouldn't be a huge deal!

Doing one match twice a day would be fine - just means we get to discuss the contest for twice as long ^_^

LightningStrikes posted...

Yeah this playrate is pretty impressive, looks like a series with a lead who deserves a debatable match!

sounds like a series with a lead whose strength was consistent from 2008-2018

MacArrowny posted...

sounds like a series with a lead whose strength was consistent from 2008-2018

Yeah all those midcarders that can’t double Recette.

LightningStrikes posted...

Yeah all those midcarders that can’t double Recette.

I'm like 70% certain that Recette was vote stuffed that match. It was caught but Allen didn't bother removing the extra votes.

There was so much random vote stuffing in that contest

Also losing close to Jill and doubling Travis Touchdown (Zelda got 70% on him in 2010) sounds about right for Kratos

Kratos had already beaten Jill easily!

I mean we have a direct comparison with Jill and a nearly direct comparison with Mega Man, it’s pretty clear that Kratos looked weaker in 2013. The rest is up for debate sure.

LightningStrikes posted...

Kratos had already beaten Jill easily! And Travis is terrible!

He is terrible! Again, Zelda got 70% on him. You shouldn't expect him to outdo that.

Also Ocelot once beat Jill easily, too!

(And facing Tifa is a bad matchup for any female character...!)

LightningStrikes posted...

I mean we have a direct comparison with Jill and a nearly direct comparison with Mega Man, it’s pretty clear that Kratos looked weaker in 2013. The rest is up for debate sure.

Well yeah, he looked bad in the Mega Man match, but I'd just chalk that up to a weird outlier match (midcarders have those against Noble Niners sometimes) when all his other appearances are relatively consistent.

I wouldn’t read too much into Zelda vs Travis since it was one match and No More Heroes 2 had just come out. We don’t really have a good read on how weak Travis is other than very.

From what I recall, NMH2 sold really poorly and I doubt it helps a cult character like Travis much anyway.

But I'd generally throw 2013 out with the bathwater if everything else looks relatively consistent. There's a reason we never bothered making X-Stats adjustments for it.

Oh hey a Bloodborne poll

Feels weird to see a poll of 45% saying they aren't even a fan of the genre, but Dark Souls gets 48% on Skyrim