Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1378

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3781-gear-division-round-1-shepard-vs-ellis

Speaking of characters who came a long way, Shepard tripled Ellis right on the heels of Mass Effect 2, which had come out the month before. I wonder if he could rebound back to these days if the new Mass Effect game ever comes out.

The Oracle average for this match was only 61% and nobody predicted Shepard above 70%, so he surpassed expectations quite a bit here.

I mean yeah I know things have changed a lot I just want another contest. :(

Had to Google Ellis to find out who he was. Left 4 Dead 2 certainly was a video game.

A really good one!

Left 4 Dead 2 was super fun to play multiplayer. I did that a decent bit and had to be reminded who Ellis was still lol.

MegaWentEvil posted...

All this time, I assumed it's because they thought it was "kiddy."

Well that alone wouldn't have been an issue, but you're right it wasn't considered "cool".

Yep I never played it but have heard a lot of good things! It is just funny that the series got two games one year apart then no more than that.

This actually sent me down a rabbit hole of Left 4 Dead’s performance on this site and it’s quite interesting. The first game did fairly well in its GotY poll then beat Mass Effect (and did better than previously against Fallout 3) in BGE 2009 four months later. So far looks pretty promising. Towards the end of that year, it could have gotten two characters through the vote-ins (and three characters for the series in the contest overall) if Louis and Zoey from the first game hadn’t been in the same poll. Then Left 4 Dead 2 does not do nearly as well as the first game in its GotY poll and Ellis bombs as Leon showed us here.

Both games got into GotD with the second game just about getting through the vote-in, and both are eliminated in first round blowouts. Left 4 Dead looked significantly stronger than Left 4 Dead 2 through God of War vs Half-Life 2, but that could have been due to Valve SFF. Then the series has never been seen again in any poll since.

It went from having potential to never being seen again in around a year and a half!

yeah I barely remember the L4D2 guys

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3782-gear-division-round-1-auron-vs-aerith

I wonder how this match goes today. Based on the 2018 X-Stats, Auron wins with 52.50% (with only one degree of separation since Zelda faced Aerith and Auron faced Snake and Sonic, who both faced Zelda and each other, so it's a fairly accurate read in that regard). Aerith has had Remake and Rebirth since then, and her character is considered one of the highlights of those games, so she'd probably have the advantage these days.

auron > squall say it aint so

Squall beat Auron when it mattered (spoilers)

I would take Aerith today. Ttends were what in her favor and with VIIR games it seems likely.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3783-gear-division-round-1-zero-vs-marcus-fenix

2010 was a bit of a Renaissance for Mega Man characters after a rough 2008. The Oracle average was 62.82% here and Zero got a doubling.

Also it's weird how much more variation western characters have in these things. Marcus Fenix was decent in 2007, dropped off in 2008, and then fell off even harder here and was never seen again. I guess it's because these guys don't come from longstanding series that we grew up with, but we've seen it happen a lot.

Aerith>Auron>Squall today imo.

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3783-gear-division-round-1-zero-vs-marcus-fenix

2010 was a bit of a Renaissance for Mega Man characters after a rough 2008. The Oracle average was 62.82% here and Zero got a doubling.

Also it's weird how much more variation western characters have in these things. Marcus Fenix was decent in 2007, dropped off in 2008, and then fell off even harder here and was never seen again. I guess it's because these guys don't come from longstanding series that we grew up with, but we've seen it happen a lot.

A lot of it ultimately is tied to the franchises themselves. Gears’ trends seem to align with basically the audience perception of the series. Strong out the gate with a gentle decline through the original trilogy, then falling off a cliff. I actually had to Google to check if they are making a new one because I forgot. And they are!

It's time for our annual Xenogears playrate poll!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9826-have-you-ever-played-xenogears

Why do we have an annual xenogears poll

LightningStrikes posted...

A lot of it ultimately is tied to the franchises themselves. Gears’ trends seem to align with basically the audience perception of the series. Strong out the gate with a gentle decline through the original trilogy, then falling off a cliff. I actually had to Google to check if they are making a new one because I forgot. And they are!

I agree, but the decline is really sharp! Even during the dark years of the Sonic Cycle, he was still Noble Nine caliber, albeit at the tail end.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3784-gear-division-round-1-darth-revan-vs-terra-branford

Darth Revan was one of the NRT winners. He was the B8 favorite pre-contest, but as we saw the effect Dissidia was having on the contest, confidence in him began to wane. He was still the slight favorite in the Oracle by the time the match rolled around, but while the final result was close in terms of percentage, Revan was never really in it. Unfortunately, we never got to see him again, and there's a decent chance he beats Terra if not for Dissidia.

Terra looked pretty great in 2010, 2013, and 2018. Rough draw for Revan.

when the FFVI remake drops Terra is gonna go on a Zelda run

The biggest disappointment to me about the underperformance of Rebirth is that it probably means we won’t get the same treatment for VI, which would be perfect for a two game remake. I would love that.

LightningStrikes posted...

The biggest disappointment to me about the underperformance of Rebirth is that it probably means we won’t get the same treatment for VI, which would be perfect for a two game remake. I would love that.

I doubt VI would get the FFVII treatment anyway. It's more likely to get whatever FFIX is supposedly getting if Square ever actually reveals anything.

Probably not. But to me it seems by far the best suited to that kind of project, maybe even moreso than VII is. It just works with the structure of the game.

I don’t subscribe to a Dissidia boost

what I do subscribe to is Dissidia giving these 2D FF characters good pictures to work with (Terra, Kefka, even Cecil) which helps them significantly compared to when they had ugly ones

LiquidOshawott posted...

I don’t subscribe to a Dissidia boost

what I do subscribe to is Dissidia giving these 2D FF characters good pictures to work with (Terra, Kefka, even Cecil) which helps them significantly compared to when they had ugly ones

Well, that's what the Dissidia boost was!

It was largely the pictures. However, Dissidia was a big deal at the time which sounds odd to say today but is really true! It got into GotD and didn’t look horrible! Although it’s past peak Final Fantasy it’s a reminder that 2009-2010 was a whole different era from the franchise to the state it’s in now.

A quick look at the match pic is interesting in that it uses Dissidia’s alt costume for Terra, which matches much closer to her SNES look with the green hair. Would default Dissidia Terra (blonde hair) still beat Darth Revan?

LightningStrikes posted...

The biggest disappointment to me about the underperformance of Rebirth is that it probably means we won’t get the same treatment for VI, which would be perfect for a two game remake. I would love that.

Thats not the remake most fans want. Just do what Dragon Quest did for 1-3 a few months ago, or the style FF4DS had.

Bitto posted...

A quick look at the match pic is interesting in that it uses Dissidia’s alt costume for Terra, which matches much closer to her SNES look with the green hair. Would default Dissidia Terra (blonde hair) still beat Darth Revan?

She had the blonde hair against Squall in round 2 and still did well.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3785-gear-division-round-1-squall-vs-akuma

Not much to say about Squall's performance here because it was about what was expected. I used to argue that Akuma would be the second strongest Street Fighter character if he could get a fair shake, but he was only in two matches and both of them featured Squall.

Well, he'd be fighting for third these days because Ryu and Chun-Li are indisputably the top two now, but it's kinda wild that Ryu is the only one who could get in on a consistent basis. I don't know why we never seriously tried to get Bison back in, for instance (he always lost in the Returners Tournament in the NRT).

what about Ken

I think Akuma would be stronger than Ken (and indeed he ranked higher in the 2010 X-Stats, but Ken is derived through Bacondorf, so he could be underrated).

I dunno, Ken might win directly though if they faced head-to-head because casuals know him more, but Akuma has been around long enough and in everything since Super Turbo.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3786-jenova-division-round-1-sephiroth-vs-marth

Much like Cloud, Sephiroth started slow (around 65% at the freeze) and rose to heaven from there. Snake vs. Sephiroth was a hotly debated, anticipated, and obviously important showdown, but this would be the only clean look we'd get at Seph before then. He did slightly worse on Marth than Snake did on Protoman, but it was hard to know what that meant at this point.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3787-jenova-division-round-1-vincent-vs-guybrush

Not sure if this result is a commentary on the gradual decline of Vincent or blowouts becoming less extreme over time, but Guybrush doing better on him than Kerrigan did is hilarious either way.

Vincent was really wasted in this bracket

I honestly think I might take Guybrush over Kerrigan

its at least within 2% either way

I would pick Kerrigan

Though I admit either feels wrong

I think I'd take Kerrigan, but only because the 'you must vote in every match!' format probably favors Kerrigan?

Basically every female charcater looked stronger than expected in 2018, that would be my reasoning.

Plus I don't trust Guybrush unless his opponent is terrible. Kerrigan was hurt by Starcraft II, but I doubt she's fallen that low.

Kerrigan has never finished ahead of anyone, not even Missile

Unless we count the vote-ins, I guess

Yeah I’d take Guybrush over Kerrigan for sure.

Yeah, in a 20k vote per day or whatever GameFAQs world, I trust the small but loyal Guybrush supporters that keep pushing him every contest to come through against a fellow underachiever like Kerrigan.

Very low votals is a fair argument, although it's tough to say exactly how that pans out.

Also Missile stands out way more than a generic Max Payne and 4chan actually rallied Missile past Kerrigan lol.

I have a feeling Guybrush has maintained his strength, using the term loosely, better than a lot of comparable characters as well. They’re still making Monkey Island games!

Now I want to see that match.

That would be maintaining something he never had

ctesjbuvf posted...

That would be maintaining something he never had

As I said, loosely!

IIRC, the Monkey Island game(s) had just been remastered shortly before that match, so that was probably the strongest Guybrush we've ever seen. Not that that's saying much.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3788-jenova-division-round-1-yoshi-vs-jak

This was an oddly sized blowout considering Jak isn't normally this weak and we'd been starting to see the Playstation platforming mascots get stronger. I suppose Yoshi must have just sapped all his support in a weird platformer SFF situation or something.

(This was also the Ed Bellis upset special whoops)

Yoshi screwed by placement in both 10 and 13, such a shame.

Well, he had a decent run in 2018