Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1378

Yeah, starting from "doubled by CATS" to decent midcarder is a pretty large leap

I think Nathan Drake is the strongest Generic Dude we have in contests. In a sea of anime and fantasy crackheads, he's out here with jeans and a polo shirt putting up respectable numbers. He's actually a tier above what you would expect from his archetype. If you want a reference point, The Last of Us looked stronger than any Uncharted game but Joel couldn't crack 38% against Ike, who struggles to be a decent midcarder himself.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3750-mushroom-division-round-1-mega-man-vs-cid-highwind

In the NRT for this contest, there was a debate over who the next strongest FFVII character was, and Cid was the one who prevailed. Unfortunately, he got saddled with an unwinnable match, but at least he had a chance to prove what he was worth.

We were kinda down on Mega Man after a lackluster 2008 contest. The Oracle average for this match was only 58.8% for him, believe it or not. Well, the match started off at a doubling, thanks to Mega Man's good early vote and FFVII's notoriously bad one. Then Cid tanked his percentage the rest of the way, thanks to FFVII's great overnight vote and Mega Man's notoriously bad one. Overall, a decent showing for Cid, but also the only one he'd ever have.

Haste_2 posted...

What character with no connection to Nintendo/Square has boosted the most by the time the 2018 contest took place? Alucard? Crash Bandicoot or Spyro? Maybe I"m missing someone notable. I could do the research and calculations, but I'm too lazy to do that right now. (plus, not doing it will invite more discussion)

If you said '13, it would absolutely be Shepard, going from distant fourth place bystander while Magus lost a bag of sand, to upsetting Aerith and being the ultimate third place bystander in LSD was quite the turnaround, but then '18 happened and Shep damn near dropped to K Rool.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3751-mushroom-division-round-1-zack-fair-vs-yuna

After a deep run in 2008, ZackFAQs proved he's still got it. Not so fun fact for me: I had a perfect bracket up to this point, but I picked Yuna here. In hindsight, not sure why I did. This felt like an obvious outcome once the match began.

That being said, I think 2010 might have been one of my better contests, although I can't see the Guru scores to verify it. However, I probably tanked my score by stubbornly continuing to pick Cloud > Link.

This match is an example of Wyoming'd, a fad at that contest. Check the US map if you want.

What was the reasoning for Cloud > Link at that point?

pjbasis posted...

What was the reasoning for Cloud > Link at that point?

Dissidia, who knows

Maybe this was the year I actually picked Link > Cloud

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3752-mushroom-division-round-1-ryu-hayabusa-vs-crash

This was considered a really bad showing for Hayabusa (the Oracle average was a doubling), but looking back at Crash's last two contests appearances, he was probably already in the process of his turnaround, so it didn't turn out to be that bad.

But if you had Hayabusa > Chief, you were feeling a little nervous at the time...until Chief's match lawl (spoilers).

IIRC Chief was the guru favorite, probbaly because of the 4-ways contests. I'm not sure if there is a place to verify that though.

I'd guess he was. He was a big favorite in the Oracle by the time the match happened, and I doubt too many people picked against their bracket on that one.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3753-mushroom-division-round-1-master-chief-vs-spy

Between Zidane/Ike and Hayabusa/Chief, we had two round two showdowns where you couldn't really feel confident about having either side.

Unless you were a proponent of Xbox SFF anyway lawl (fuller laughing will commence when we get back to this match next round)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3754-heart-division-round-1-sora-vs-midna

It felt like Kingdom Hearts had become a force to be reckoned with after the release of KH2. They had good showings pretty much every contest from 2006-2009. Well, that began to change here as I guess we started to get KH fatigue as the spinoffs piled up and KH3 was nowhere in sight. The Oracle average for Sora was a doubling, and he fell short of that by a few percent. It wasn't an encouraging first performance with a showdown against Bowser looming in a couple rounds.

On a side note, I had the match pic for Sora for this match, but really, all I did was stumble upon a wallpaper someone had made with Sora's Final Form and cropped it. It even had the appropriate background for the round, so I barely had to do anything! Sorry to anyone who actually put in real effort for Sora...!

I won sig bets on picking Bowser > Sora

Most of the logic was simply that 4-ways was different and Bowser would probably be back.

Sora always felt like he was on the verge of being a lot stronger than he ever was.

too bad we never got the post DLC contest

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3755-heart-division-round-1-laharl-vs-neku-sakuraba

6 years after being on the losing end against Vyse, Laharl has a reversal of fortune and beats Neku. The difference might have been a literal reversal of poll position.

The argument for picking Vyse in 2004 and Laharl in 2010 was social in nature. When people don't know either character, they'll just default to the top option. In both matches, the top option won, but who knows if it was as simple as that.

I sincerely doubt that Top Option was worth that much of a difference (maybe if the margin of victory was like 1-2%), but it's not like we'll ever be able to test that.

I think Vyse won because he had been in a contest before and Laharl just looks much cooler than Neku.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3756-heart-division-round-1-kefka-vs-arthas

This was the first big shocker on the board and the first time we got owned by the casuals because Arthas was a heavy favorite on the board, while Kefka had almost 75% of brackets overall. The logic behind picking Arthas was simple: He had looked about equal to Diablo in 2007 and 2008, and Diablo had beaten Kefka in Villains. On top of that, Kefka had looked pretty bad in 2007 (getting destroyed by the Marcus Fenix ASV in both matches) and 2008 (finishing dead last in a match with Marth, Duke Nukem, and Nico Bellic).

Now I don't think we would've been stunned if Kefka had won close in an upset because the Oracle average for Arthas was only 53-54%, but a 60/40 blew most of us away. This was finally the Kefka people had been expecting to see when he first debuted in 2003, and all it took was not looking like lettuce. Thanks, Dissidia.

easily my favorite match of the perfect start of my bracket!

Yeah I picked Kefka, but the margin was surprising.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3757-heart-division-round-1-bowser-vs-frog

The two 4-way contests were not kind to Bowser. He had been upset by Ryu in 2007 and by Luigi in 2008. Some postulated that, as there were characters who benefited from the format, there were others who suffered from it, and for whatever the reason, Bowser was in the latter group.

Well, if you were looking for confirmation of that here, you didn't get it, as this result was only 0.02% off of the 2008 X-Stats projection. Still, putting up a similar number on Frog to what Sora put up on Midna allowed you to remain confident in Bowser for their showdown in a couple rounds.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3758-heart-division-round-1-l-block-vs-hk-47

L- Block was an agent of chaos in 4-ways, so there was some curiosity about how it would do one-on-one. The answer turned out to be...pretty boring. The Oracle average was only half a percent off of the result. There were no wild trends, no vote swings, nothing. L-Block had become just a normal entrant with normal trends.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3759-heart-division-round-1-isaac-vs-layton

This was the division for niche RPG characters to finally get a win. Isaac had nearly upset Lucario in 2008, but he got an easy draw here. He outperformed the Oracle average by 10% as well, but that's partly because we're never really sure what to make of fodder vs. fodder matches (although I guess Isaac might be above the Vyse Fodder Line, but he'd be close).

I wonder how that match goes nowadays. Dark Dawn somewhat ruined the Golden Sun series, but I don't think that time's been terribly kind to Layton either.

Smash was Isaac's chance for long-term relevance, and it came and went, sadly.

Everybody forgets but Golden Sun wasn’t niche back in the day. The original sold like 2 million on the GBA! Unfortunately the series has since been abandoned. KP is absolutely right, no Isaac in Smash finished it off. A shame really.

Thinking on it more, the other thing that hurt Golden Sun is that its whole point was to push what could be done technically on handhelds. What does a Switch or Switch 2 Golden Sun game even look like now that the console-handheld barrier has been broken?

OrangeCrush980 posted...

I wonder how that match goes nowadays. Dark Dawn somewhat ruined the Golden Sun series, but I don't think that time's been terribly kind to Layton either.

Isaac didn't do much worse on Kirby than Phoenix Wright did in 2018, so he was probably still around the VFL. Layton did okay in 2013 though! He avoided the doubling against Barret. He wasn't in CBX though, so we can't track how the series has aged. I think Isaac probably still wins fairly easily, but maybe not a doubling since he couldn't even get a doubling on Estelle.

New Layton game coming out this year at least!

I think it probably goes more or less the same way. Dark Dawn may have reminded people that Golden Sun isn't actually good, but it'll be offset by Nintendo being way way stronger on this site than it was in 2010.

Maybe Layton closes some of the gap purely because blowouts are a lot tougher?

Issac has been above the VFL if nothing else than Vyse taking way below it.

Vyse stopped residing at the VFL the year after we named it for him! It's just the standard of 20% on Base Link, and he was consistently at it for two years in a row, so he received the honor he technically no longer holds!

I still think Pac-Man's the best fodder line, as he wins the apathy votes. That generally applied before he was in Smash Bros, though.

Eh, you don't want someone who's too casual like Pac-Man. The line really should be reserved for a niche but well regarded RPG character.

Honestly Isaac probably fits the bill these days as well as anybody.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3760-heart-division-round-1-charizard-vs-duke-nukem

As the winner of the NRT for this contest, there was some hype behind Charizard finally making the bracket. Duke Nukem had a couple of weird runs in 4-ways and he had the American flag in full view in the background of his match pic here.

However, he reverted back to his old Duke Milkem days now that we were in one-on-one contests again. So far, Charizard was delivering on the hype, as he outperformed the Oracle average by about 8% here.

Not a fraud.

Yeah, this was already a somewhat debated match. Most went with Charizard, but it was discussed.

Now that Duke Nukem Forever was released and sucks, who is the new joke vote-due-to-game-not-being-released character? Jade (BG&E)? Hornet (Hollow Knight: Silksong)?

Or is GameFAQs above voting for memes these days?

Gordon Freeman and Half-Life 3

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3761-heart-division-round-1-kratos-vs-tails

This was considered a bomb by Kratos. After how badly Sonic, Shadow, and Knuckles had looked up to this point, the expectations for Tails were really low. The Oracle average for Kratos was a doubling. Charizard seemed to have the advantage now headed into their round two match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3762-varia-division-round-1-samus-aran-vs-prince

We had seen Prince of Persia put up 38% on Kirby in 2006, which was a solid performance. However, there's a danger in having your character design vary from game to game. He didn't exactly get a flattering match picture here, and it wasn't the Sands of Time version we had seen in 2006. Samus was at 90% in the first minute of the match and above 80% for a little while, and we haven't seen Prince of Persia in a contest since.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3763-varia-division-round-1-niko-bellic-vs-jill-valentine

When GTA characters fall off, they fall off hard. Niko had beaten Kefka and hadn't been too far behind Marth and Duke in 2008. In fact, the Oracle average for Jill was only 55.72% here. Instead, she was flirting with 70% early on before RE's notoriously bad day vote dropped her down a couple percent.

I was so ****ed at that Duke pic. I had Charizard in my bracket, but I thought the pic would tip things over for Duke. Whoops!

Hey @Ngamer

Would you be able to fix the Guru info on your site? Not sure if you're aware of the problem or not but you can't see matchup stats anymore.

If it's too much of a hassle, I understand. It'd really only be for posterity, like the Oracle site.

Yesmar_ posted...

I was so ****ed at that Duke pic. I had Charizard in my bracket, but I thought the pic would tip things over for Duke. Whoops!

Yeah I think that was a pretty common scare.

Yesmar_ posted...

I was so ****ed at that Duke pic. I had Charizard in my bracket, but I thought the pic would tip things over for Duke. Whoops!

Well, good thing you were wrong concerning Duke Nukem winning, then.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3764-varia-division-round-1-roxas-vs-heavy

Roxas had terrible draws in all of his other appearances, so I'm glad he was able to get one win in his contest career. He started off over 60% but apparently there was a 4chan rally for Heavy, which only succeeded in tanking the final percentage. I sure do miss the days when that was all outside rallies were capable of doing.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3765-varia-division-round-1-tidus-vs-sub-zero

This was the biggest tossup of the first round. Tidus was a slight favorite, but it was heavily debated. The winner was also essentially guaranteed to win next round, too, so it gave this match extra weight.

Sub- Zero had a slight lead at the freeze and slowly pulled away from there. For Tidus fans like me, this was a tough blow because this was his best chance to finally make the third round, and he had come up short yet again.

When you call it biggest tossup, is that in terms of prediection percentage? It's up there for sure in any case.

Next match is up there too and was also thoguht to be a 3 pointer.