Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1377

We're almost done with our SC2K4 review, but we've got a lot of anniversaries coming up next year, so there will be plenty to reminisce about still!

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

~*Most Surprising Results*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

~*Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Tag

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1777-chaos-division-final-sonic-the-hedgehog-vs-samus-aran

This was a close match just 2 years prior. Metroid Prime was a big boost for Samus.

From 50/50 to 57/43 in just two years, and the gap has probably only widened in the years since. Wouldn't be surprised if Samus could push 60 these days.

Sonic has an ace up his sleeve compared to his 2018 run:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonic_the_Hedgehog_(film)#

It's rather tragic that Sonic never got a chance to try and cash in on it.

If we've learned anything from Sonic, it's that his window to cash in on hype is very short

Getting announced for Brawl saved him from losing to Squall in 2007, but he lost to Auron a year later

Not only did the gap widen between Samus and Sonic in those two years, but he at least had the distinction of the closest match ever going into 2004. That record got broken twice by the time we got to the rematch.

More people should be excited about a Sonic Generations remaster with new Shadow levels

Melee, Fusion and Zero Mission I believe, wasn't just Prime.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Melee, Fusion and Zero Mission I believe, wasn't just Prime.

Between 2002 and 2004? I don't know the Metroid release dates, but Melee was 2001.

Prime and Fusion were released at the same time in 2002

Zero Mission was in 2004, about half a year before that contest. With MP2 on the horizon, it definitely felt like Metroid was Big and Back again

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1877-best-of-2004-game-of-the-year-final-vote

It's kind of wild that 2004 had so many big name games that MGS3, which is the strongest game from that year now, couldn't even make this final GotY poll.

This is also the last time we've seen Metroid Prime 2 in a poll.

Is there a reason it took time for people to warm up to MGS3? Not to say reception started off bad but it seemed to grow over time.

I'm not sure because I loved it immediately. It might have gained nostalgia over time as the last great MGS game, although that wouldn't totally explain how it overtook MGS1, too.

MGS2 being divisive meant that MGS3 took some time to get going. I think 3 sold way worse in the same release time frame.

MGS4 dropping off also solidified 3 as the last truly great MGS game in people's minds, which helps.

Yeah, MGS3 was a slow burn in terms in sales because of the backlash to MGS2 (which sold great because of MGS1).

Kinda similar to FFIX in that regard. FFVIII sells great on the heels of VII, IX less so because some people didn't like VIII (as well as coming out literally after the PS2 launched).

The difference is that FFX is still really popular and MGS4 isn't...! FFX probably gets the same nostalgia bump as MGS3 as the last great game of that era.

I didn't play MGS3 until Subsistence, but didn't that also help?

Leonhart4 posted...

Between 2002 and 2004? I don't know the Metroid release dates, but Melee was 2001.

I don't know how I managed to get Melee in there, but the others should be good enough.

I think MGS4 is still fairly popular. It's just the peak was really high compared to what it is now. It's on a lower tier than 1/2/3, but on a higher tier than 5.

Well, I'm talking about in terms of its peak. Like Brawl, it'll never truly be "weak," but it's a far cry from what it once was.

FFX, on the other hand, has maintained its popularity to an almost surprising degree.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I didn't play MGS3 until Subsistence, but didn't that also help?

As someone who got into the MGS series partway through them releasing, I remember waiting specifically for Subsistence to come out, so anecdotally speaking yeah.

Yeah, Subsistence was very well received. It supplanted the original so completely that I forget that it wasn't the original version!

MGS3 also didn't release in Europe until 2005 (which is why I always remember it as an '05 game - I remember the run up its release at school quite vividly, in a group of friends who were also hyped for RE4 that summer), which probably didn't help it in its GOTY. Heck there's a good chance I voted for San Andreas!

I am very glad that era of waiting several months (or importing) for big releases is long gone. KH2 was also about six months later in Europe.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1778-tournament-semifinal-link-vs-mega-man

This was the first match to feature multiple pics. You had one pic of Link triumphing over Mega Man, and one of Mega Man triumphing over Link. Some people blamed the Link > Mega Man pic for this performance because it was a pretty bad look for the Blue Bomber. Looking back on it now though, it could've just been SFF.

Never forget Heroic Mario predicted Mega Man to win SC2K4 because of the Mega Man Anniversary Collection.

He always wins.

LeonhartFour posted...

it could've just been SFF.

Sounds like 2k4 to me.

Well, I think we were hesitant to call for SFF back then since Mega Man isn't a Nintendo character. Maybe some people did, but I don't recall it being a big topic of discussion.

Looking at the adjusted SC2K4 X-Stats, creativename had this note about Link/Mega Man:

"The thought of SFF in Link vs. Mega Man is somewhat controversial, but was included as without it, everything else gets really off from what you would expect. It has been hypothesized that perhaps some factor other than, or in addition to, SFF caused Mega Man to underperform in that match."

So yeah, I guess it did get discussed because it seemed obvious that Mega Man underperformed by a good amount. There just wasn't a clear explanation for what caused it.

I remember that we used to call Mega Man Nintendo’s ”adoptive child”.

And with SSBU, Nintendo has gone and adopted everyone.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1779-tournament-semifinal-cloud-strife-vs-samus-aran

A great run by Samus culminates in a solid showing against Cloud. She was really the star of this contest. And even if you were a believer in Cloud, at this point, you had to admit that Link was the favorite headed into their finals rematch.

Clinkeroth is just so crazy strong that holding Cloud below 60% was an achievement.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1780-tournament-final-link-vs-cloud-strife

Link gets his revenge. This was probably the best match they had because it was actually really close for the first five or six hours. Then the day vote hit in full and Link never looked back.

Back in 2004, and definitely 2003, I hated on Cloud big time. But, over the years I've warmed up to him a lot due to his rivalry with Link. It's still mind blowing to me that there is official art of Cloud fighting Link. I should probably play FF7 someday.

Good time to jump right into Remake...!

Also, I'll never understand the Link thing. Perhaps the wildest thing is that this isn't a GameFAQs phenomenon (like FFVII is). Link is popular with gamers just about everywhere. Certainly not to the extent he is here, but still, that inherent popularity is what gave him a shot against Draven.

I might pick up the FF7R Collection on Switch 2. It might be amusing to start with the remake while only having some idea of how the original goes.

LeonhartFour posted...

Also, I'll never understand the Link thing. Perhaps the wildest thing is that this isn't a GameFAQs phenomenon (like FFVII is). Link is popular with gamers just about everywhere. Certainly not to the extent he is here, but still, that inherent popularity is what gave him a shot against Draven.

He's Nintendo, which means he's gamer royalty. Everyone knows him. He has a distinctive, universally likable design. The Zelda series is extremely well-respected, even among those who don't play it. He's been around long enough to be nostalgic for every generation, young and old.

Very few other characters can match all that, and the ones that do just aren't as cool as Link. Like, Mario may be Mr. Video Games, but a legendary swordsman has more inherent appeal than a fat plumber.

Link kicks ass. Why? He kicks ass by virtue of being a knight. Knights, as we all know from history class, kicked ass. They came in hordes, rode horses, and slashed people up good. Link does all those, and more. What killed knights? Longbowmen. Longbowmen were little crappers that had the annoying ability to shoot arrows right through the thickest of armor. Imagine rushing at the enemy, resplendent in your ass-kicking armor, and then the guy next to you falls down. Then, another flash of movement and there's an arrow through your chest. It went through your armor like it was paper. Those damned archers and their ass-kicking bows. While you're bleeding there, you realize that your ass-kicking was not superior to thiers, and if you had a bow of some sort you may have had superior ass-kickingness and then blazed through those little archer-men like they were nothing. Link, however, is like an Archer-knight. He's got a sword, arrows, and a shield. He doesn't have that crappy armor that barely lets you move, he just carries a shield and then pwnz stuff hard. All his junk kicks ass too. He's got an Ocarina. The name Ocarina just kicks ass. But this isn't any Ocarina, its an Ocarina of Time. He can friggin travel through time with it, and he can do all sorts of cool stuff. He controls the planets rotation, changing day to night and vice-versa. This Ocarina kicks ass. He has the help of faeries. In the rare event that he falls, they revive him. So you're all like, "YEAH! I killed him, and overcame his ass-kicking power!" and then he comes to life and then kills you, because he just kicks that much ass. His arrows aren't just regular arrows, they're all sorts of crap. They can be infused with fire and never burn up, they can freeze people, and they can even vanquish evil with a few well-place shots. Not just that, but his bow-and-arrow isn't just a BAA, its a friggin missile launcher. THOSE ARROWS CAN CARRY FRIGGIN BOMBS! So this guy has the equivalent of a freeze-ray, a flamethrower, a gun-of-holiness, and some sort of rocket launcher. Just with his friggin arrows. Therefore, he must kick ass. Lots and lots of ass. But it doesn't stop there. His shield kicks ass. It doesn't just defend him, it absorbs magic and THROWS IT BACK AT THE ENEMY. What the hell kind of attack is gonna get through that? You're all like, "Feel the wrath of my Hadoken-style magic beam of deathness, Elfie!" and then he catches it and flings it back at you. Then you die. His shield kicks ass, but so does his sword. Not only is it a sword, but its a special sword. If Link isn't hurt, IT SHOOTS FRIGGIN LASER BEAMS. He has a sword that SHOOTS LASER BEAMS. I'm going to say it again, the sword SHOOTS LASER BEAMS! You're all like, "w00t! I'm 20 feet away and running faster than Link! I may not kill him, but he won't kill me!" Then he shoots you. Not with an arrow, which is cool but expected, but he shoots you with his sword. With his laser-beam firing sword. He also uses magic. Invincibility-inducing magic. Teleportation magic. Ass-kicking fire magic. His sword charges with magic and shoots it outwards in a circle around him. So Link is like Samus, nearing the ass-kicking threshold. But he already has a hat. Unfortunately, he has a very hard time of taking the Ass-Kicking Beam of Light form, whilst samus just puts a funny hat ontop of her helmet. That is his one weakness.

LeonhartFour posted...

Also, I'll never understand the Link thing. Perhaps the wildest thing is that this isn't a GameFAQs phenomenon (like FFVII is). Link is popular with gamers just about everywhere. Certainly not to the extent he is here, but still, that inherent popularity is what gave him a shot against Draven.

In the original contest, I had him losing to Sephiroth in the semis. It seemed to make sense, especially at the time. I thought the more edgy character from the RPG would have had the advantage. Also, I assumed that games > characters for Zelda because he's a silent protagonist and who he is hardly matters in the context of the games.

Then Link won the first contest and that permanently affected how people voted in the future. I genuinely think that if he hadn't won the first contest he wouldn't have been the overwhelming favorite he became. Still a top 3-5 character but not the presumptive winner for all eternity.

It's cause of Ocarina of Timeless

even winning that IGN contest when all the old games fell by round 2

Would a Link still win if we had like six different in a bracket? Say BotW Link, OoT and MM Link, WW Link, Original Link, TP Link and Lttp Link?

Link presumptive strength tier list:

OoT/MM
BotW/TotK
LttP/LA
Phillips CDI
TP
WW/PH
ALBW (funny how this is a different Link than LttP)
OoS/OoA
NES
ST

Maybe there's more spinoffs I forgot, whatever

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3308-character-battle-bonus-link-link-link-link

Theoretically these should all be eligible

Insinuating that Classic Link is NOT Young Link is terrible

This might be corny, but to me the appeal of Link is that he represents the Spirit of Adventure.

pjbasis posted...

Insinuating that Classic Link is NOT Young Link is terrible

Blame yourself or Sakurai

I think OoA/OoS Link is supposed to be LttP/LA Link?

But you probably need some Triforce wish fudging to make it all work.

AxemRedRanger posted...

I think OoA/OoS Link is supposed to be LttP/LA Link?

Indeed.

TFH Link is the same as ALBW.

Then list is missing SS, MC, FS and FSA Links.

Oracles Link is separate from ALttP/LA Link now according to Nintendo

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1781-would-you-like-to-see-more-tournament-contests-on-gamefaqs

Yes, they should be constantly running.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1781-would-you-like-to-see-more-tournament-contests-on-gamefaqs

Ah, the glory days when 30% of the site was in favor of constant contests!

And that's it for SC2K4! The good news is that we don't have too long of a wait until our next retrospective. CBVIII began on January 16, 2010, so we'll be back at it in a few months.

We'll also have Game of the Year in the meantime and I can't wait for Final Fantasy VII Rebirth to be omitted from the polls entirely.