Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1373

pjbasis posted...

He hypnotized himself so well we can assume it's what Liquid would have done.

But like, he didn't do it...!

Regarding Metal Gear Solid V and if there was another contest... Would Allen allow Venom Snake to be nominated as a separate character as Big Boss? Or would that be too big of a spoiler?

He's technically a separate character and should be allowed, but who knows

That one should be allowed, I hope.

After Quiet's performance I'd like to think we won't waste contest space on more MGSV characters.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

After Quiet's performance I'd like to think we won't waste contest space on more MGSV characters.

You will be ashamed of her performance

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3249-division-2-round-1-bowser-cain-geno-phoenix

Phoenix advances past round 1 for the first time

Geno just hasn't had any luck avoiding stronger Nintendo or Square characters.

Just wait until he lands that upcoming SMRPG remake.

Won't help with his bracket placement, but just you wait.

Geno will finally get strong enough to win a match just as contests are canceled forever

I wonder if Geno gets SFF to non-Nintendo characters in Smash.

If so there aren't too many opportunities to see him at full strength.

Maybe throw him against someone like Commander Shepard or Master Chief.

Geno after his smash reveal is a Noble niner

I don't think the likes of Captain Falcon or Waluigi or whatever would necessarily be an unfair match for showing Geno's strength. The potential issue with Bowser and Ness especially is that they're specifically Nintendo-affiliated SNES RPG characters that outrank him on the totem pole, with Bowser in particular being a cruel choice.

Leonhart4 posted...

Phoenix advances past round 1 for the first time

*comes back from the dead* Wait, isn't this the first time?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2874-division-3-round-1-bomberman-crash-phoenix-magus

Ah, the memories. I remember how disappointing this was for Magus, even after he was exposed by Knuckles two years prior. He was supposed to cruise past Big Boss in the second round, but that didn't even come close to happening.

Oh right, for whatever the reason, I thought he'd barely lost that one instead of barely winning.

Now for today: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3250-division-2-round-1-fei-knuckles-mario-zelda

I wonder how close Zelda gets to Mario today.

I’d pick Zelda first place in that one.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3251-division-2-round-1-lloyd-mudkip-tom-nook-mega-man-x

I wonder how Mudkip (and Bidoof) would do now.

I know it was a big meme at the time, but Mudkip was pretty impressive for a non-gen 1 Pokemon.

I don't even think we thought of it like that a the team because Pokemon sucked pre-2007 so it wasn't clear how favored gen 1 was. It got stuck to hardcore SFF in both contests it was in, but held up pretty greatly almost besting top tier Nintendo characters.

LeonhartFour posted...

I wonder how close Zelda gets to Mario today.

Zelda did beat Mario in 2018, but that was fresh off the heels of BotW. And the match was close enough that Mario could swing that match back in his favor now that BotW has aged another 5 years since the last contest. TotK was released earlier this year, but I don't expect that game to help Zelda as much as BotW did (and TotK is probably weaker than BotW).

I would also add on top of BotW that we were also in the heat of major SSBU-hype. The Switch was huge in the moment of that contest...and while that lifts all boats, so to speak, Zelda's growth in strength from BotW could have been a multiplier effect alongside that. I wouldn't rule out her being weaker now than 2023 despite the Switch still doing well and TotK being another certified hit.

LeonhartFour posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3251-division-2-round-1-lloyd-mudkip-tom-nook-mega-man-x

I wonder how Mudkip (and Bidoof) would do now.

Bidoof is probably fairly unimpressive fodder, and outside of 4chan rallies it likely wasn't even very good back in the day. Mudkip we have seen in polls since:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5292-which-pokemon-water-type-starter-is-your-all-time-favorite
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7781-which-pokemon-water-type-starter-is-your-all-time-favorite

I wouldn't expect it to get too far from the fodder-line in either direction. We've seen what happens to other meme characters when the joke gets old but being a well-liked (for post-RBY) starter might give it some base of strength though it's been a long time since it was relevant.

I think the reason why Lucario was such a relative bust is clear in retrospect: it's basically a nonentity in the actual main games of its generation. It's not a starter, it's not a legendary, it's not on the box, and in order to obtain it you have to raise its pre-evolved form from an egg that you don't get until fairly late in the game and it has one of those dreadful friendship evolutions. Lucario had some prominence in the anime and non-game franchise at the time, hence it getting into Smash, but non-diehard teen/adult consumers of Pokemon had largely fallen off most of that as the fad aspect of Pokemon faded in the early 2000s.

And Altair vs. Lucario is one thing, because yeah, I can totally see having no confidence in Altair. But does Lucario beat Isaac again in a rematch? I wouldn't take it. The broader franchise hype might not have lived up to expectations for Lucario in 2008 but it was probably doing something. I don't get the sense Lucario was ever particularly a favorite in Smash, whose cast is now much larger, and with its presence in relevant games outside of Smash feeling so minor at this point, I wouldn't expect Lucario to hold up to its 2008 performance either.

Zelda was definitely on some bandwagon by the time she reached Mario, I'm thinking Mario wins that naturally.

Lucario has no reason to have gotten worse than 2008 at all. It's stronger or at worst the same. It has had bigger roles than it had in DP at the time, continued to appear in all Smash games where it no longer has backlash of Mewtwo getting cut, and it has appeared in every Pokemon game since, proving to among the most popular Pokemon through Google polls and such. It might not matter here, but it shouldn't have gotten worse. Especially compared to like Isaac who has no reason to keep his strength.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Zelda was definitely on some bandwagon by the time she reached Mario, I'm thinking Mario wins that naturally.

people keep saying that but Cloud beat Zelda more easily than he beat Mario

Wasn't Cloud vs Zelda in the loser's bracket? If so, it's probably because being beaten by Link caused her bandwagon to die off, plus the site not wanting to see a Link vs Zelda final.

"The bandwagon died off" would still validate Zelda's strength if she got that close to Cloud despite that.

I think there's a case to be made that Zelda would be a bit naturally weaker in current years. Tears of the Kingdom is a huge game, but I don't think it sparked the same renaissance for Zelda as a character that BotW did, and I think that momentum has faded some. Maybe Ganondorf actually gets a boost this time...?

Either way Zelda is very strong though.

Yeah, I don't know that she could replicate her 2018 run, but I'd say she's still firmly in the Noble Nine tier in terms of strength. That part was no fluke.

KamikazePotato posted...

Maybe Ganondorf actually gets a boost this time...?

Do not look away. You witness a king's revival.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3252-division-3-round-1-crash-nightmare-raz-samus

Crash finishes 2nd pretty easily now, right?

LeonhartFour posted...

people keep saying that but Cloud beat Zelda more easily than he beat Mario

That just strengthens my point though.

I'm not saying the gap is huge or that Zelda isn't super strong now. Just that I think Mario wins in a natrual rematch because the bandwagon pushed Zelda what she needed to win when they met.

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3252-division-3-round-1-crash-nightmare-raz-samus

Crash finishes 2nd pretty easily now, right?

Assuming he performs anywhere close to this?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7311-division-3-round-2-crash-vs-big-boss

Yup.

That match would be the easiest #1 and #2 to pick by today, yes.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5155-character-battle-ix-division-2-round-1-phoenix-vs-marth-vs

From 30% on Samus to 31% on Phoenix Wright.
I'd question less whether Crash wins a rematch and more whether he could potentially push for a tripling.

I just remember Nightmare was an NRT push, so it was cool to see him advance past round 1.

I need to see what banjo can do now

Leonhart4 posted...

I just remember Nightmare was an NRT push, so it was cool to see him advance past round 1.

And he did so twice even

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3253-division-3-round-1-frog-ganondorf-kos-mos-neku

I remember this match didn't have a picture for the first hour or so, and then you saw a noticeable increase for KOS-MOS once it went up.

The .Jpeg Factor

Actually, I think Neku went up, too, if I'm not mistaken.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3254-division-3-round-1-falco-glados-vincent-wander

I wonder what the percentages look like on this one now.

Except Wander still finishes last, that would probably be a good bit debated I think.

Vincent should still win by a decent margin. 2018 Vincent vs. Fox probably would have been close, Fox vs. Falco is obviously not close, and with how terrible Vincent had already looked in 2013 relative to his peak (Disregard the silly round 2 stuff and he still failed to break 60% on KOS-MOS) it's not clear he even dropped in the 5 years from 2013 to 2018 so it shouldn't be a given he's notably worse in 2023 either and without that I don't think there's much reason to think Falco and Vincent are on the same tier.

Falco probably beats GlaDOS but I wouldn't be hugely shocked if he somehow blew it.

Oh I would absolutely still pick Vincent yes, but I would expect it to be debated with recent Smash character overperformance stuff.

Vincent is around Zack's level

Zack lost badly to Kefka

GlaDOS beat Kefka

???

2013 Vincent might have been around Zack 2008's level but not Zack 2013's.

I think GLaDOS has to at least take second. This match was Portal 1 only GLaDOS at this point, who had recognizability issues to the point where later match pictures had Cores instead of her actual look, and I don't she would be regressing that far even with Portal being a dormant series.

There probably isn't a huge gap between GLaDOS and, say, Revolver Ocelot or Commander Shepard, but I'd take Falco over DeDeDe or King K. Rool without a second thought.

That might be bad logic, but we're discussing re-running 4-ways.

I guess being the only Nintendo rep in a four way isn't a bad thing, but I also take the 2018 values for the Smash midcarders with a grain of salt. Smash hype was at an absolute peak, and I don't think some of those results would hold up when Smash is definitely in the rear view.

Yeah, I think Dedede and K. Rool would be noticeably weaker now than they were in 2018.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3255-division-3-round-1-balthier-big-daddy-gordon-scorpion

Big Daddy might be able to pull a "worst to first" here