Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1372 - The Last Hurrah?

Controversial opinion here but are we so sure Link/Magus wasn't legit? What if Magus just fell a lot between 2003 and 2005? If there was a major Mario overperformance in Mario/Crono 2003 (and if you look at the votals, there were like 20k extra votes in that match), then that lines up with Crono's best year being 2003, like every other Square character.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

That's better than the fate of Lightning, who has only gone down from people playing her game.

Ah the beauty of pre-release hype for a game that winds up being unpopular

red_sox_777 posted...

Controversial opinion here but are we so sure Link/Magus wasn't legit? What if Magus just fell a lot between 2003 and 2005? If there was a major Mario overperformance in Mario/Crono 2003 (and if you look at the votals, there were like 20k extra votes in that match), then that lines up with Crono's best year being 2003, like every other Square character.

Sam Fisher in 2003 and Luca Blight in 2004 both wound up being much weaker than they looked after facing Magus when we based his strength on his performance against Link

I did an entire expose of Magus in 2005 to justify Squall > Magus, I know my "Magus was overrated all along" details

Leonhart4 posted...

I can believe Tidus was at his strongest in 2002. FFX was 6 months old at that point.

Either way, the fact that Tidus 2002 and Tidus 2003 were pretty much constant helped hide Magus, Ganon, and Shadow's true strengths for quite a long time.

I acknowledge that you predicted Magus 2005 beforehand, but I will say that Squall was behind Link/Samus in 2003. I feel like Link/Samus SFF occurring in that match is much much more likely than not.

Also, Crono 2005 = Crono 2004 > Crono 2003, which is what cn's x-stats have, never felt right. It makes more sense to me that Crono was strongest in 2003 (or maybe 2002 - the last week of that was so chaotic that it's impossible to tell) and fell a bit into 2005, while Magus fell considerably more. And he may have been overrated as well based on fairly predictable reasons (sprite round and Link anti-voting). But the confluence of the overrating and a significant fall in strength led to him losing to Knuckles instead of winning the division.

Mario cheated and Squall was underrated in 2003, those things don't have to be mutually exclusive with Magus being overrated, too.

I also think it's possible Sephiroth overperformed on Mario the next round because of potential backlash in Mario/Crono, which would've underrated Crono further.

I don't know how much backlash, but I feel like it existed. People were angry about that result.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1346-south-division-round-2-kefka-vs-crono

It may not have been the lettuce pic, but Crono still made a chopped salad out of Kefka anyway.

Kurono

Tidus might have dropped between the first two contests, but his 2002 value is doubly overrated since:

A) The poll with Sonic was down for a couple of hours in the afternoon during Sonic's best time.
B) He's stuck behind WDF, which seems to have been Samus overperforming against Seph.*

*Edit: I guess Sephiroth could have overperformed against Link as well, but that doesn't really track, IMO.

It's hard to remember there was a time when Kefka had high expectations. It only took him a decade to become a solid midcarder (perhaps not coincidentally, around the time Dissidia came out and gave him new match pic material).

WDF is not real, and has always been far better explained by Link/Mario SFF.

I feel like this is the first time I heard of WDF

pjbasis posted...

I feel like this is the first time I heard of WDF

Probably because it hasn't been referenced before now in a very, very long time!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1347-south-division-round-2-alucard-vs-kirby

Still could be an interesting match today, TBH.

I remember the older contests so much better than the newer ones. I remembered what WDF is but I had to look up Crono/Mega Man 2018.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1347-south-division-round-2-alucard-vs-kirby

Still could be an interesting match today, TBH.

It should be based on 2018 since they both narrowly lost to Bowser

All part of the plan.

LightningStrikes posted...

Rotten Tomatoes is doing a best director of the last 25 years contest:

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/best-directors-of-the-last-25-years/

Can’t wait to see the x-stats on this, though I’m guessing Nolan is about to absolutely bury everyone.

How tf did Reitman make it that far

squexa posted...

Speaking of Game of the 90s, IGN just did a 90s faceoff

https://www.ign.com/articles/90s-video-game-face-off-the-winner-revealed

1. OoT
2. SM64
3. SMW
4. ALTTP
5. GE007
6. FFVII
7. MGS
8. MK64
9. Super Met
10. SMK

That top 10 would be similar on GameFAQs as well, though with CT, RBY, and SMRPG replacing GoldenEye, MK64, and SMK. On IGN, CT finished in 14th place, RBY got 17th, and SMRPG got 30th.

IGN's contest seemed to be based off the Japanese release date, because it had GSC in the contest (2000 release in the US) and no SMB3 (1990 release in the US).

I'd take FFVI over SMRPG and not really sure about MGS being in there. LA's a contender for that slot.

Eh, I'd struggle to take Link's Awakening 1-on-1 against a classic like FFVI or other beloved 90s games. I know it did well against it in 4-ways, but I don't think it'd have the same success if it needed 50%+ to win.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1348-south-division-round-2-max-payne-vs-sephiroth

And here we have Sephiroth absolutely skewering Max Payne and by extension, Gordon Freeman, and making a shish kabob out of them.

ah the good old days of Clinkeroth

I wonder what kind of opponent Sephiroth would need to clear 80% again.

Draven

A well deserved blowout.

Seph got 70% on Wesker in 2018, so 80% isn't really out of his reach yet. He actually looked pretty good during the main tournament.

2018 was before Seph got in Smash too. Granted a lot of people stopped playing SSBU by then, but it's still a huge game.

Leonhart4 posted...

Eh, I'd struggle to take Link's Awakening 1-on-1 against a classic like FFVI or other beloved 90s games. I know it did well against it in 4-ways, but I don't think it'd have the same success if it needed 50%+ to win.

FFVI's probably too much, but I can see it at least being competitive against MGS. Beloved 2D Zelda with a popular recent remake that has the David Lynch/existentialism/proto-MM feel that should benefit from the site becoming more hardcore.

Oh, it would probably do well, but I don't think it would be strong enough to break the top 10.

Link's Awakening would be worth considering for the top 10 of the 90's only in the hypothetical where gamefaqs used original release date like IGN rather than using the North American release date whenever available like it's always done; otherwise Mario 3 gets tossed in and there's probably no fair and normal match where Link's Awakening beats any of OoT/CT/FFVII/RBY/LTTP/SMW/SMB64/SMB3/FFVI/Super Metroid.

Things look a bit better for it from #11 on. I'll note while something strange certainly could have happened in 2015, given Super Mario RPG > MGS3 > MGS1 and that the SMRPG remake has since been announced, SMRPG > MGS1 should probably be the default assumption for now.

blank POTD whoops

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1349-west-division-round-2-solid-snake-vs-knuckles-the-echidna

the second match in a trilogy we didn't need

LeonhartFour posted...

blank POTD whoops

Second time in less than 3 months this has happened.

All part of the setup for 2k5.

I really wonder how strong BG3 will be. CRPGs arent exactly something the site is into but it's really broken into the gaming mainstream in a big way along with the 97 metacritic.

It would lose to Kirby.

dum pink game, what ever

Baldur's Gate II was...what, high fodder?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4115-southwest-division-round-1-skies-of-arcadia-vs-baldurs-gate
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6089-best-game-ever-day-10-banjo-kazooie-vs-baldurs-gate-ii

Shame that if III does become a breakout hit here, it probably won't have II's hilarious trends. worst power hour ever.

By the time it can be in a contest it will be ancient so a lot of its strength will be gone.

User SaveEstelle's review officially gave BG3 the record

BG3 might have a chance at being the second strongest game this decade so far, behind Tears of the Kingdom of course. Talk about the faintest of praise since there's maybe like 5 games that would not be fodder in an all games contest.

Number 2 should be Eldin Ring, right?

TeamRocketElite posted...

Number 2 should be Eldin Ring, right?

Yeah, if BG3 doesn't eclipse it, then probably. Unless Super Mario RPG Switch counts in this conversation, which has a decent amount of precedent.

Super Mario RPG. It is the only one just for me.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1350-west-division-round-2-ryu-vs-dante

The first of Dante's many contest disappointments (I think he was the board favorite, if I remember correctly)

Well, at least he did better in the rematch thanks to hockey.

Dante lost because of hockey!

Elden Ring beats BG3 for sure.

Also on this site FFVIIR beating it also seems like a no brainer