Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1369

This poll is going to have massive trends based on previous re-runs of this poll:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8742-

How strong would SMTV be?

Barely above the fodder line? Or would its status as a notable Switch game and Persona cousin push it into midcarder territory?

I'm sad it didn't show up in the GotY polls here. Probably would've done quite well.

That said, it wouldn't be strong. Maybe Tales of Vesperia level?

plasmabeam posted...

How strong would SMTV be?

Barely above the fodder line? Or would its status as a notable Switch game and Persona cousin push it into midcarder territory?

As much as I love the game I don't think it will be anywhere close to even Persona 3 during its 2015 strength so most definitely fodder.

In respect to GotY polls though, I feel it would have finished behind Tales of Arise and ahead of Rift Apart.

SMT fans are often Persona fans but it happens less the other way around

SMT is too hardcore for persona fans

I've played one SMT game which was decent and no Persona games, which I think is pretty rare.

So how strong we think Elden Ring will be?

Stronger than Bloodborne but weaker than Dark Souls. So maybe about as strong as Mass Effect 2?

I think Elden Ring could end up being than Dark Souls, although the shoddy release might be hampering its full potential. It would take a few years for the playerbase to build up either way.

It's the BotW of Dark Soulslikes but even BotW is expected to lose to OoT. Although, maybe in the future everyone will start comparing every game to Elden Ring.

KamikazePotato posted...

I think Elden Ring could end up being than Dark Souls, although the shoddy release might be hampering its full potential. It would take a few years for the playerbase to build up either way.

Yeah, I can't see it touching BB or DS for at least a few years.

That said, if GotD3 were held today (which makes no sense, I know), I could see Elden Ring making the Final Four based on hype and first impressions alone. Here's a 4-pack for s***s and giggles:

Metroid Dread
vs.
Elden Ring

FF7 Remake
vs.
Persona 5 Royal

Team Rocket Elite posted...

It's the BotW of Dark Soulslikes but even BotW is expected to lose to OoT. Although, maybe in the future everyone will start comparing every game to Elden Ring.

I don't know if I'd compare Dark Souls to OoT! Elden Ring could become stronger if it's able to lure in a new audience that doesn't usually play Dark Souls, but I wouldn't bet on that happening just yet.

I feel like Elden Ring could be the Skyrim or Persona 5 moment for the Souls games.

I think Dark Souls will forever be boosted by being the first Souls game to really take off

I've seen opening impressions like Elden Ring's for other games before and for some reason it doesn't strike me as something that will have the lasting impact of Dark, which I think matters a lot. I also think the more modern you get the less receptive this site will get to stuff that doesn't follow 90s game design sensibilities or exist in a legacy franchise, and even the time difference between 2011 and 2022 matters there if not a lot.

Even with them extending their brand recognition with Elden Ring, it's still a niche group of fans. Elden Ring somehow has more awareness to it, but I hear a lot of people aren't enjoying it for the things that essentially make it a souls game. ER isn't going to be more popular solely on the basis that more people played it. If I had to pick ER vs DS(1-3) on a bracket I'd take the Dark Souls game because that's the heart of the fanbase. If hardcore Souls fans were saying ER is the best in the genre I'd change my mind, but right now I think Souls fans already have a favorite, and people new to the series/genre will probably go back and play the others if they really love the way Elden Ring plays.

ChichiriMuyo posted...

If I had to pick ER vs DS(1-3) on a bracket I'd take the Dark Souls game because that's the heart of the fanbase

There is no way Elden Ring is losing to Dark Souls II and III. At worst, it will be 2020 Bloodborne level and at best it is outright stronger than even Dark Souls. I believe it will also keep gaining more and more strength because of FromSoftware's reputation and the staying power of these type of games. I honestly think it will end up being on the level of the strongest games from the last two decades excluding only the juggernaut that is BotW within a few years.

ChichiriMuyo posted...

it's still a niche group of fans

It is also not a niche group of fans, not anymore. The fanbase has grown leaps and bounds in size since say 2012. A niche fanbase would be something like Trails or Ys.

I don't really play their games, but the hype for Elden Ring has seemed larger than any other release by FromSoftware and my friends haven't complained about the game other than the silly amount of deaths which is kinda their company trademark.

They also have a horse that double-jumps, and that alone is worth my vote against some games.

double jumping horse rules

I'm seeing a ton of people who never got into Souls games playing/enjoying Elden Ring. Even here on GameFAQs/B8 it seems to be quite a bit more popular than previous games. Definitely the Skyrim moment for the series. Or the Ocarina of Time moment for the series, if you want to compare it to Zelda :p

I'm not really sure what's a bigger game release than Eldin Ring right now or the near future. Like GTA6/TES6? The GoW sequel?

I don't mean for gamefaqs obviously, that's just the next Zelda.

Why would the GoW sequel or TES6 be bigger than BotW2 for the general public? BotW1 was bigger than the last game in either of those series.

Also TES6/GTA6 won't be coming out for a long time. Probably 2024 for GTA and 2027/2028 for TES.

I do wonder how Switch Sports will do. Does it hit 10 million copies? Ring Fit's done 13.5M for comparison. I could theoretically see it outselling Elden Ring.

Switch Sports will probably very well, but wont be remembered as a big game release. I don't see any of GoW2, TES6, GTA6 or BotW2 topping this even if they'll all likely do great.

Mac Arrowny posted...

Why would the GoW sequel or TES6 be bigger than BotW2 for the general public? BotW1 was bigger than the last game in either of those series.

Eh, I feel like Skyrim was a bigger deal than BotW for the general public. And BotW2's hype is muted because Nintendo's reusing a lot of BotW1's assets, although TES6 not being on PS will also hurt it.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Switch Sports will probably very well, but wont be remembered as a big game release. I don't see any of GoW2, TES6, GTA6 or BotW2 topping this even if they'll all likely do great.

Assuming the game doesn't pull a Cyberpunk, GTA6 will be a way bigger deal than any of these games to the general public.

Bump

Mac Arrowny posted...

BotW1 was bigger than the last game in either of those series.

Disagree on Skyrim. It's also been 10+ years the hype could be insane. BotW2 is on the same platform and looks kinda same-y so far. We'll see though.

TES6 not being on Playstation will hurt the hype a good amount.

Xbox should be closing the gap with PS this gen and TESVI is still going to be on PC, so I think it should be fine. Halo 2 was one of the most hyped games of all time despite being an exclusive for the original Xbox.

BotW2 is a weird case where if you take the current trailers at face value, its not much more than an extended DLC with floating islands so it all depends on whether Nintendo's still hiding a huge twist like some kind of second world, time travel or dark world or whatever.

The twist is you play as Linkle.

Chrono Trigger ownership poll:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8758-

This poll can be used as a playrate poll since there is a option for playing the game without ever owning it.

I'm sure one of you has all the stats on the playrates for the "big games". I'd expect CT to be on the lower end of that list.

For a game that's obviously nowhere near "universal tier" Chrono Trigger does well

Looking at the wiki list, I'm surprised Super Mario World hasn't had a poll yet, it has to be by far the strongest game not yet featured

You get SNES ownership polls instead on Mario World's release date

I mean, that didn't stop Super Mario Bros. or Super Mario 64 from having a bunch of them

Yeah but the NES and the N64 ain't the SNES

If you disregard America i doubt anything to do with Chrono Trigger gets past 1 or 2 rounds in a contest.

AxemRedRanger posted...

https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Have_You_Played

Kinda wish we got some data for the newer games beyond just Pokemon GO and Fortnite.

shane15 posted...

If you disregard America i doubt anything to do with Chrono Trigger gets past 1 or 2 rounds in a contest.

That would hurt Chrono Trigger a bit but nah. The game tends to be even stronger in the rest of the Western Hemisphere (Canada particularly) than in the U.S. and back in 2015 it easily beat FFX in most of Europe and even came close in the U.K.

Definitely tracking poll updates for today's poll:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8763-

This might be the last time "My parents" ends up winning today's poll, but it's too early to tell what will happen based on the early vote. "My parents" won the poll back in 2020 and that option has been getting weaker over the years as the site's average age continues to increase. Today's poll could have an interesting comeback attempt with a potential lead change involved.

Poll updates and trend charts for yesterday's poll:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19EPTHYwSKKHmxC-zSn_Oe018DNZh5yIIdYax7YdLlqQ/pub?gid=2135831133

"My parents" had a strong board vote and Power Hour, while still having an above average night vote. It performed worst during the entire morning vote (BSV and DSV). It did recover slightly during the ASV, but even that time period was below average. The SNV was largely similar to the FNV. "My parents" lost its first update to "My significant other" at 1:50 AM, a 5 vote cut. The lead maxed at 347 at 6:35 AM, followed by "My significant other" making consistent cuts afterwards. The lead fell all the way down to 123 at 5:25 PM, but the lead stayed in the 120-140 range for almost 6 hours (12:00 PM to 5:50 PM) before "My parents" made a real attempt to extend that lead again. There was no lead change in this poll, and "My parents" won by 175 votes.

"Other family members" had similar trends to "My parents", but they were less pronounced here. This option performed best during the Power Hour and both night vote periods, and performed worst during the entire morning vote and ASV.

"My significant other" had the opposite trends to "My parents", with a terrible board vote and Power Hour. The night vote was slightly better, but still terrible. It easily performed best during the early morning vote, while still having a good late morning vote and ASV. The SNV was better than its FNV, but still below average. It won a total of 8 consecutive hours over "My parents", and 12 total hours overall.

"One roommate" performs best during the board vote and Power Hour, and worst during the early morning vote and SNV. The remaining time periods were around average.

"Multiple roommates" has only one standout time period - an excellent SNV. The other time periods are all around average.

"Just my pet(s)" was the most consistent performing option throughout this poll, with the exception of a very strong board vote.

"Nobody at all" performed worst during the board vote, Power Hour, and SNV. It performed best during the night vote. The morning vote was around average, with the ASV being below average.

I never talked about the trends from the 2020 poll, but they were largely similar to yesterday's poll despite the 2020 poll having a 1:00 AM EST start/end time. I handled the trends from the 2020 poll by making the FNV one hour shorter (2:00 AM to 6:00 AM), while making the SNV one hour longer (10:00 PM to 1:00 AM).

This may be the last time "My parents" ends up winning this poll. It lost a total of 2.61% over the course of 2 years, while "My significant other" gained 2.69% during that same time period. A re-run of this poll in one year from now would likely see "My parents" losing about 1.30% and "My significant other" gaining around the same amount, leading to an near deadlock between both options in a 2023 re-run of this poll. If this poll gets re-run in 2024 or later, there's no way "My parents" wins again.

Bump

Playrate poll for the original Kingdom Hearts:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8775-

What does Elden Ring get on BotW if Horizon 2 = Horizon 1?

Mac Arrowny posted...

What does Elden Ring get on BotW if Horizon 2 = Horizon 1?

58.26%

Wow a Kirby game beating a Pokemon game, what a brave new world

Not so fast!

11.97% - Kirby and the Forgotten Land
12.14% - Pokemon Legends: Arceus

Love is dead

Extremely good result for Elden Ring, although I don't expect Horizon 2 to be as strong as the first one.