Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1368

Not as close as I once thought it'd be!

Not sure yet if this is strength from MD (my guess) or weakness from 2021. I don't expect MD to touch the likes of LoZ:BotW/SSBU/SMO and it may not quite reach MK8D either, but I'd bet on it beating the likes of AC:NH and FE:3H.

I'd take it over MK8 without a second thought

Which would mean taking it over The Last of Us and Nier: Automata at a second thought. Oh wait.

Why do we keep underestimating Metroid games in contests again? People seriously thought Super Metroid was going to lose to a Wii game in 2015.

Metroid Dread vs. Link Between Worlds, who ya got?

Would you take anyone other than Link to beat Samus right now? I'm not sure I would.

We have yet to see a Smash-boosted Sephiroth. It let Cloud claw his way back to #2.

Big Bob posted...

We have yet to see a Smash-boosted Sephiroth. It let Cloud claw his way back to #2.

I don't think Smash lets Seph reverse the beatdown Mario laid on him. He has a lot of ground to regain. Cloud wasn't losing 60/40 to Mario pre-Smash.

Think I'd favor Sephiroth over Mega Man/Crono/Pikachu nowadays whereas he'd have probably lost to them last character battle (he might have still had a chance against Sonic though!) but I still don't really believe in him against Solid Snake.

Leonhart4 posted...

I'd take it over MK8 without a second thought

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8025-division-8-semifinal-elder-scrolls-skyrim-vs-mario-kart-8

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6153-best-game-ever-day-28-round-3-skyrim-vs-metroid-prime

Possibly. I'm not confident though.

I feel like those polls look good for Dread? Prime got 49% on Skyrim, so 40% for Dread doesn't seem that crazy.

I'm also of the mind that a major Nintendo game will only look so bad against a western game. I think Galaxy 2 is similarly fraudulent.

And yeah, I also think Dread will be decently strong. It's already the best selling Metroid game.

The performance here is pretty impressive. If you think RE8 is anywhere near RE7 then Metroid Dread > MK8 is likely.

Of course, this wouldn't be the first time GotY poorly translates to contest performance, but regardless I suspect Dread is at least in the running for third strongest Metroid game.

What's its competition...? I feel like it's a lock over Fusion, and I doubt Metroid 1 is actually strong.

I guess Prime 2 or 3?

Am I crazy for thinking it might have a shot at Prime 1?

It could, but I'm going to need to see it perform against something with some known strength before pulling that trigger.

Thrilled to see this sight got GotY 2021 right.

AxemRedRanger posted...

Metroid Dread vs. Link Between Worlds, who ya got?

Zelda, and not even close. Like 65-35.

Leonhart4 posted...

Would you take anyone other than Link to beat Samus right now? I'm not sure I would.

Mario without hesitation. See: SC2K5.

Does anyone have hard sales numbers for Dread? All I see are articles about how it’s the best selling Metroid but none are giving actual numbers.

plasmabeam posted...

Mario without hesitation. See: SC2K5.

Also see 2018 though.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7373-finals-bracket-2-samus-vs-mario

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7383-loser-bracket-round-4-mario-vs-samus

Mario can of course still beat Samus, but that's going back seventeen years for a match-up we saw twice last contest and Dread wasn't even announced at that time.

Did you see Mario/Samus 2018?

I had to personally rally my balls off for Mario in 2018 to make sure he won that second match. Like, Samus is legit stronger than he is and there’s probably a decent 53-47 gap by now.

And I'll concede Dread is likely closer to MP1 than I was first considering. Still not convinced MK8D is a gimme-match, but MD can likely find itself as the Switch's fourth biggest game at the moment.

Separately, I can't imagine another Metroid game besides MP1 and SM beating MD.

Leonhart4 posted...

I guess Prime 2 or 3?

I'd say 3 and feel good about it.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Does anyone have hard sales numbers for Dread? All I see are articles about how it’s the best selling Metroid but none are giving actual numbers.

We'll likely have to wait a bit. Officially, Nintendo claimed ~850k were sold in the US for its first month (October 2021), throw in the Christmas season plus worldwide numbers and it could be the best selling Metroid game already (or very close to it), not that it's a difficult task since no Metroid game has broken 3 million.

HaRRicH posted...

Also see 2018 though.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7373-finals-bracket-2-samus-vs-mario

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7383-loser-bracket-round-4-mario-vs-samus

Mario can of course still beat Samus, but that's going back seventeen years for a match-up we saw twice last contest and Dread wasn't even announced at that time.

Leonhart4 posted...

Did you see Mario/Samus 2018?

Forgot about 2018, my bad.

Mario won by 1000, then Samus won a nailbiter. I'd argue Samus won the rematch because people wanted to see a different result.

You could argue that Dread gives Samus a boost, and that would be enough to make up the 1000 vote difference. Samus being favored sounds reasonable to me.

HaRRicH posted...

And I'll concede Dread is likely closer to MP1 than I was first considering. Still not convinced MK8D is a gimme-match, but MD can likely find itself as the Switch's fourth biggest game at the moment.

Separately, I can't imagine another Metroid game besides MP1 and SM beating MD.

Prime vs Dread is a match I'd love to see as a division semi-finals matchup.

Dread isn't gonna beat the old classics, but it should be good for third strongest Metroid game.

plasmabeam posted...

then Samus won a nailbiter

Nah she lost that one too.

I'd argue Mario won the first time because he was the bracket favorite and Samus should have won the rematch when brackets weren't a consideration anymore if it weren't for the Mario "clutch"

Samus could definitely take that now, yeah.

The Nintendo hierarchy works in mysterious ways (eg Bowser/Kirby) so it's not as simple as Samus getting Dread = she could definitely beat Mario now. She got almost nothing but junk games like Other M and Federation Force but she still somehow closed the gap in 2018.

squexa posted...

The Nintendo hierarchy works in mysterious ways (eg Bowser/Kirby) so it's not as simple as Samus getting Dread = she could definitely beat Mario now. She got almost nothing but junk games like Other M and Federation Force but she still somehow closed the gap in 2018.

I would guess her boost relative to Mario is a combination of Smash being more relevant now than in 2005 and the SNES boosting massively since then, which are both very favorable towards her.

squexa posted...

The Nintendo hierarchy works in mysterious ways (eg Bowser/Kirby) so it's not as simple as Samus getting Dread = she could definitely beat Mario now. She got almost nothing but junk games like Other M and Federation Force but she still somehow closed the gap in 2018.

Since she now has a good game clearly this means she is boosting to the moon! #2 character on this site and stronger than Link indirectly! LOL

I think Samus benefits from Metroidvania becoming a big thing in recent years. It might have helped Alucard, too, but the show probably helps him more.

Leonhart4 posted...

I'd argue Mario won the first time because he was the bracket favorite and Samus should have won the rematch when brackets weren't a consideration anymore if it weren't for the Mario "clutch"

I think brackets were dead at that point already. Samus was definitely running some sort of hype train the second time from people that wanted to see the result flipped.

She could win a rematch for sure, but I honestly doubt that there's room for Dread to boost her very much.

Metroid's dork age wasn't enough to derail Samus, meanwhile RE6 ruined Resident Evil characters in these contests.

It's not like Samus was indirectly far from Mario in 2005 either.

The Nintendo fanbase does change its hierarchy over time, look at Bowser/Yoshi/Luigi

ctesjbuvf posted...

I think brackets were dead at that point already. Samus was definitely running some sort of hype train the second time from people that wanted to see the result flipped.

She could win a rematch for sure, but I honestly doubt that there's room for Dread to boost her very much.

Brackets would not have been dead since you had second chance brackets.

And there's always room to boost relative to another character.

I think Fusion might be able to beat Prime 2 and Prime 3. It looked pretty decent in GotD. Not guaranteed though.

redrocket posted...

Am I crazy for thinking it might have a shot at Prime 1?

I'd say so. Dread on Skyrim's level seems crazy to me.

ctesjbuvf posted...

She could win a rematch for sure, but I honestly doubt that there's room for Dread to boost her very much.

It being her first big game in 19 years is something of a big deal I'd think.

By the time there's another contest the Dread effect will have faded and Nintendo will have announced Odyssey 2 or something like that. Sure, Samus might be able to get 51% on Mario now but I'd still back the plumber the next time a contest rolls around.

Edit: Forgot about Prime 4...but I'm still standing by my statement...

Everybody on the site already knows who Mario and Samus are and when you are that well-known and established, I don't think recent games have that much of an impact unless it's some kind of "reinterpretation" like Snake getting into Smash, causing him to be exposed to a Nintendo demographic that might not normally play MGS or Zelda getting BotW, which brought in fans beyond the traditional 3D Zelda formula. I just don't see Dread or SMO or SMO2 doing that and causing a significant impact on the Mario/Samus relationship.

Like I can still see Samus beating Mario next contest, but more because of continuations of trends that's favored her in 2018 like the SNES/Metroidvania boost or the female character boost than Dread having that much of an impact.

Female character boost. Amazing.

Dread isn't about introducing Samus to a new audience (there could be some of that, but on this site, it would be minimal). It's getting people excited about the character, maybe all over again or for the first time. Hype works in cycles. I just beat Dread yesterday, and I would vote for Samus over Mario right now and I don't think I ever have before.

We'll get Metroid Dread sales numbers when Nintendo releases their third quarter ended financial report in the first week of February.

I'll admit to have forgotten the second chance brackets, but the other point still stands.

Dread is a big deal, but... squexa basically explained the argument as well as it could be, do no need for me to try.

People being excited about the character is a good point, but I don't think it'll really matter that much unless the contest is shorty afterwards.

It'll last even longer if Nintendo can capitalize on this and actually show some Prime 4 footage or even just do the Prime Trilogy re-release.

Leonhart4 posted...

Dread isn't about introducing Samus to a new audience (there could be some of that, but on this site, it would be minimal). It's getting people excited about the character, maybe all over again or for the first time. Hype works in cycles. I just beat Dread yesterday, and I would vote for Samus over Mario right now and I don't think I ever have before.

Agree with this. It's also important to keep in mind how close some of the top characters are with each either. Even if Dread is only equal to Samus gaining a 1% advantage against Mario, that margin would've netted her the victory last time.

1v1 GotY poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8694-

Strong showing by Metroid Dread out of the gate.