Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1367

Big Bob posted...

Alucard's in a stage background, so he still counts.

He’s an assist trophy, bro.

Squall today decided he wants another rematch with Squall.

we're not quite to the level of characters facing themselves just yet

unless it's Persona 4

I expect Sora to be able to beat Bowser now.

*Sora, oops -- I meant to insinuate a(nother) Sora/Squall rematch.

I don’t think we’ve seen Sora vs Crono yet. That needs to happen.

Do Smash appearance even matter now? I mean most of us who votes are over 30.

Then again Netflix made Alucard a lot more popular here, so what do I know?

Dunno if that was Netflix or just Alucard's old-school appeal helping him out a little.

New content renews awareness, gives you new reasons to like something, or makes you feel nostalgic about something you liked a long time ago, so it helps

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Zelda > Mario feels like a bandwagon result, though that's not to imply she wasn't still on a tear that contest.

The stupid thing is that if you take Zelda's matches against Squall and Snake at face value, Snake actually gained in strength relative to Squall since 2010. And Auron is stronger than Squall now apparently.

Even if you take that Zelda match out, Squall looked really bad in 2018. 76% against Hat Kid (who?) and doing 2% worse on Garrus than Ryu did on Shephard (and Ryu didn't look that great himself).

Do we have to nominate Dragon Quest heroes individually or is SBAllen going to lump them all together like in Smash Bros?

DQV Hero was already in once so separate

Zylothewolf posted...

Do Smash appearance even matter now? I mean most of us who votes are over 30.

After seeing Cloud's resurgence in 2018 (and Smash reps in general, for that matter) I think there's no doubt Smash appearance has a noticeable positive influence in a character's strength.

I mean, we're talking about the same Cloud that lost to freaking Squirtle 5 years prior.

I'd ignore 2013 due to all the rallying.

I'd compare Cloud's performance relative to Sephiroth in 2018

But Sephiroth was really weak in 2018...

And Cloud likely would have been almost as weak if it weren't for Smash 4.

Sephiroth wasn't in Smash in 2018.

But Cloud was in Smash.

I was trying to think of the probable seeding if we held a 128-game contest now. Here's what I've figured out so far:

1 - Final Fantasy VI, Final Fantasy VII, Ocarina of Time, A Link to the Past, Breath of the Wild, Chrono Trigger, Super Mario Bros. 3, Super Mario World
2 - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, Super Metroid, Metal Gear Solid, Metal Gear Solid 3, The Witcher 3, Resident Evil 4, Majora's Mask

LinkMarioSamus posted...

The Witcher 3

I wonder about that

As someone who dickrode Witcher a lot last year, I suspect it's been damaged a lot since the contest. CDPR received so much goodwill back than, and people weren't questioning the game's quality.

Cyberpunk REALLY hurt the company's image, and I think a lot of the people memeing Witcher 3 were the first to turn on it. Cyberpunk prompted a LOT of 'Was Witcher 3 even that good' discussions, and the game's stock has taken a tumble among casuals who were only memeing it because of 'wholesome CDPR'

Re-run Witcher vs Skyrim today and I would hardly be surprised if Skyrim wins now.

I don't think base level Witcher 3 will be too much weaker, but I do feel it lost quite a bit of its rallying power.

Bathtub Geralt too strong.

I feel like people are making a bit too much of a deal over Cyberpunk. It's no Fallout 76! Still a good point though.

MechanicalWall posted...

I wonder about that

As someone who dickrode Witcher a lot last year, I suspect it's been damaged a lot since the contest. CDPR received so much goodwill back than, and people weren't questioning the game's quality.

Cyberpunk REALLY hurt the company's image, and I think a lot of the people memeing Witcher 3 were the first to turn on it. Cyberpunk prompted a LOT of 'Was Witcher 3 even that good' discussions, and the game's stock has taken a tumble among casuals who were only memeing it because of 'wholesome CDPR'

Re-run Witcher vs Skyrim today and I would hardly be surprised if Skyrim wins now.

I think Witcher would still win right now, but I think Skyrim is going to have much better staying power the longer time marches on being looked at as an innovator of the genre, especially with CDPR losing its luster.

I'm fairly sure Netflix will help Witcher retain its boost. It's not like Skyrim died after Bethesda went on to s*** the bed 298 times.

One reason I picked Dark Souls over Skyrim was because I thought Fallout 76 would tarnish Bethesda's reputation, and Skyrim would fall as a result. Witcher III might drop in strength, but I think it still beats Skyrim.

I definitely wouldn't have taken Witcher III over BotW in my bracket, though. I knew it was a longshot when I made that pick, but take Cyberpunk hype away and one of my arguments was gone.

Skyrim definitely felt like it lost a step. It might take another one from salty Playstation fans now that Bethesda is under Microsoft. I definitely felt an uptick in people claiming Skyrim was never good after the acquisition.

I was going to say people were making similar excuses for how Mass Effect 2 wouldn't do well with 3 and Andromeda having supposedly tarnished the brand, but then ME2 went out and took care of its division.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I was trying to think of the probable seeding if we held a 128-game contest now. Here's what I've figured out so far:

1 - Final Fantasy VI, Final Fantasy VII, Ocarina of Time, A Link to the Past, Breath of the Wild, Chrono Trigger, Super Mario Bros. 3, Super Mario World
2 - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, Super Metroid, Metal Gear Solid, Metal Gear Solid 3, The Witcher 3, Resident Evil 4, Majora's Mask

FF7 Remake, FFX, and Persona 5 have to factor into this somewhere. I could see them easily out-nomming Super Metroid, MGS1, and RE4. Maybe even Majora since the GotD 2010 days are far behind us.

And are we sure Melee still gobbles up noms with Ultimate around?

They’ve largely made good on Fallout 76 now. I doubt anybody holds much against Bethesda Game Studios these days.

As an aside, now that Metroid Dread is out how do people think GOTY will go? Metroid followed by Deathloop? Not many of the big AAA RPGs and 3D action adventures GameFAQs tends to vote for this time around.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8327-best-of-2020-game-of-the-year

I assume Dread beats New Horizons, though AC:NH was huge and MD is brand new...could be wrong. I also don't think any non-Nintendo game this year is aa big as FF7R or maybe even Ghosts of Tsushima.

2D Metroid might actually do it.

Unless there's a big release I'm forgetting, Dread should run away with it. Everything that was really hyped as a 2021 release isn't coming out until 2022 (or later).

Like the closest competition is probably Skyward Sword HD? Maybe Resident Evil?

plasmabeam posted...

FF7 Remake, FFX, and Persona 5 have to factor into this somewhere. I could see them easily out-nomming Super Metroid, MGS1, and RE4. Maybe even Majora since the GotD 2010 days are far behind us.

And are we sure Melee still gobbles up noms with Ultimate around?

I don't think FFVII Remake would be eligible in a contest where FFVII is eligible, kind of like how Resident Evil 2 (2019) Persona 4 Golden and Pokemon HG/SS would not be eligible in a regular contest.

Lightning Strikes posted...

As an aside, now that Metroid Dread is out how do people think GOTY will go? Metroid followed by Deathloop?

I'd take Resident Evil VIII or even Tales of Arise over Deathloop, the discourse around that game has been a lot less kind then its Metascore would suggest.

Regardless this year probably generates the weakest GotY field since 2012, real interim year for the industry.

Would be cool to see Bowser's Fury do well, but I'm not sure many people here played it. I'd guess RE8 is second strongest of the year after Dread.

2016 was weaker than 2012 at the time, hence why FFXV defaulted its way to victory. You look at GOTD2 and FFXV not only was no longer the strongest 2016 game it likely dropped from the top 3 (DOOM, Dark Souls III, and Uncharted 4 are all now stronger) whereas Borderlands 2 only fell behind Xenoblade which wasn’t even a real 2012 game (same deal with P4G) so I would say 2016 was weaker. In each case there were not as many of the big RPG/Action Adventure titles as there usually are.

This is why I thought Deathloop as it is one of those. I wasn’t aware of negativity, everything I’ve heard has been glowing other than PC performance. However after thinking about it maybe not and Tales of Arise will pull a shocker, that could be fun.

I'm guessing Resident Evil Village > Metroid Dread > Persona 5 Strikers

I expect Dread to win, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if RE8 takes it either. I think this is the kind of site that wants Dread to be good, and it seems like it is, so it should benefit.

Bump

All-time favorite classic 2D Mario game poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8615-

let's go Mario 3

Let's go Yoshi's Island!

... :(

SMW dominating SMB3. Was the margin this big last time?

I voted for SMB3, but I meant to pick Yoshi's Island, even if it's not really a Mario game.

It was 45% to 30% last time. Mario World is pushing 50% at the moment, but it's coming at Mario 1's and Yoshi's Island's expenses so far.

But it's still early and things will probably look more like they've looked before once the early voting trends settle down.

Do you think this is solid evidence to take Yoshi;s Island against SMB1?

Doubt it, though I think it would be close either way.

pjbasis posted...

Do you think this is solid evidence to take Yoshi;s Island against SMB1?

In the same sense that Yoshi is the strongest Mario character

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7898-which-mario-character-is-your-all-time-favorite

The SFF is a bit crazy, especially when the two games in question only have a less than combined 16% of the vote.

pjbasis posted...

Do you think this is solid evidence to take Yoshi;s Island against SMB1?

No. SMB3 and SMW skew the results big time.

SMB1 would likely double Yoshi's Island if they were to meet. You have a classic Mario game--the game that saved gaming--going up against a Mario spinoff. I know people love to rave about how underrated and amazing YI is, but this is Mario vs. Samus '05 all over again.