Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1365

Lightning Strikes posted...

You know what that means, Best Series Ever II coming 2021!

Yes, please.

Also LMS, I think you fundamentally misinterpreted my argument. I'm well aware that Zelda generally beats Smash even on an intra-console basis in the hierarchy here, and as my original WW/Melee post should have indicated, I'd also agree that WW is indirectly even at worst. The problem with extrapolating that to a direct match, though, is that Melee is the GameCube game, and WW just isn't that. As others have pointed out, Melee has thumped WW in every poll the two have shared, and Brawl even beat TP 1-on-1 against the will of the entire Melee fanbase for basically the same reason. Even if those are all very old indicators by this point, I'd tend to trust them more than a simple 2015 stat comparison for determining the winner of a Melee/WW match.

AxemRedRanger posted...

Also, Wind Waker in 2015's x-stat value runs through FFVI, which we assume got SFFed by FFVII. However FFVI's value was assigned it probably isn't worth taking that seriously even by x-stats standards. There's a bonus poll you could use to try to adjust but IIRC even that had some notable offsite influence.

Not sure why franchise hierarchies are being taken so seriously after Super Metroid almost beat Majora's Mask.

For what it's worth in my stats I did adjust FFVI down a tiny bit, but I adjusted Chrono Trigger down even more (51% on Ocarina instead of 54%), which pulled Melee down slightly below WW. Though the difference is pretty arbitrary as the two games are next to each other anyway (and in the top 15 to boot), so from that perspective it's very much a tossup at worst. And yeah Melee has rallies too.

Yes clearly I have no idea how hierarchies work lol.

MetalmindStats posted...

Yes, please.

Also LMS, I think you fundamentally misinterpreted my argument. I'm well aware that Zelda generally beats Smash even on an intra-console basis in the hierarchy here, and as my original WW/Melee post should have indicated, I'd also agree that WW is indirectly even at worst. The problem with extrapolating that to a direct match, though, is that Melee is the GameCube game, and WW just isn't that. As others have pointed out, Melee has thumped WW in every poll the two have shared, and Brawl even beat TP 1-on-1 against the will of the entire Melee fanbase for basically the same reason. Even if those are all very old indicators by this point, I'd tend to trust them more than a simple 2015 stat comparison for determining the winner of a Melee/WW match.

I don't like the argument of Melee being the GameCube game but I at least get it. Then again it WAS the system's top-selling title.

Maybe I should adjust FFVI down even more? Though otherwise you have Paper Mario 1 beating 2.

The Series Contest was the single most boring contest we've ever had, so I'm okay not seeing another one.

Series II would be much better than I though. I happened too early.

Series was not Years

Series>>Rivalry Rumble>>>>Years

Sorry, I meant most boring contest during the peak years. Regardless, I have no interest in a sequel.

I think the point where Series II would be most interesting passed when the Switch came out. Final Fantasy's just continued the freefall relative to Nintendo since then.

And obviously Series II would require no Legend of Zelda.

Yeah, I can't picture a match Zelda wins with under 60% at this point

I guess the interest would be "how many series could beat Final Fantasy" but that's basically what every contest is now!

Well I mean pre-Switch I think we could have some good debate about who wins it all without Zelda involved, Mario, Final Fantasy, or the crazy Pokemon pick but how good Odyssey/Galaxy 2/Mario Kart 8 (since we know most voters will consider Mario Kart Mario) looked relative to FFXIV/FFXV last contest has just put Final Fantasy out of reach, and Mario/FF and possibly Pokemon are just so far ahead of the rest of the pack that I don't think there's much to be had anymore with the 2nd tier of games.

Mario Kart was its own series in the first series contest.

Mac Arrowny posted...

Mario Kart was its own series in the first series contest.

R.I.P. yoblazer

I wonder how well Mario and Zelda would have down relative to each other circa 2010/11. It's hard to see Mario winning, but logically the two were fairly close in'06 at the nadir of the mainline Mario series (only two mainline releases in the past 10 years at that point!), so how could it not have boosted post '07? It's hard to imagine that the Galaxy games wouldn't have helped the series at all.

Mac Arrowny posted...

Mario Kart was its own series in the first series contest.

I'm aware, but if you just tell voters 'what do you like more, Mario or Final Fantasy' they will include Mario Kart, Party, etc. in consideration.

Mario would never beat Zelda head to head in a Series Contest

LinkMarioSamus is the most underrated Board 8 user by far. He makes very good points for discussion and witty commentaries while nobody else cares for them, for some reason that I still haven't been able to grasp in the last 10 years.

Rivalry Rumble and BYIG were also massively underrated (especially the latter though you could make a case for its mismanagement but that's not the point).

And I wasn't around for Series, but it surely was underrated too!

Advokaiser posted...

And I wasn't around for Series, but it surely was underrated too!

the results still exist so you can look them up for yourself and realize it wasn't!

I believe the best match in Series was a match we saw in the previous contest, that followed the same trends of said match.

Now now, I have nothing against LMS when he's not going out of his way to compare something to Other M or Star Wars that should not. I would discuss if I did not enjoy it, though with all due respect I don't believe his points about Wind Waker beating Melee in a direct matchup was among his better points.

Rivalry Rumble had potential, more if not for some mismanagement too, but it was not a good contest. We literally had to do a massive oracle tiebreaker for the battle challenge because basically everyone predicted every single match right in that. Even before the contest, so few things took points from people, most of which were us looking for winning upsets, but I suppose the Pokemon Trainers had an enjoyable run.

I can't argue that Years was a bad contest very well, because nothing that happened then stuck in my mind, I don't remember anything almost, it was very boring.

Years contest was 1 year too early. 2017 wasn't eligible. Although, it might have just gone out early due to a match pic without BotW and people not knowing it came out in 2017.

The #1 issue with Rivalry Rumble was no Mario vs. Sonic.

LMS has legitimately become a cool guy to have around.

The whole thing with franchise hierarchy, my argument was not that a game in one series is incapable of beating a game in another series, just that, I dunno, if two games are close than the higher series hierarchy should win? Also it was just a function of my adjusted stats since Chrono Trigger's division jumped out at me as being more blatantly overrated than FFVI's eightpack.

The worst contests are still fun, there’s no such thing as peak years, I like liking things.

I still enjoyed having a contest when the worst ones were here yes, even if years sure is close to the line of enjoyment. That said, there are definitely peak years.

Just to be clear when I say that I don’t mean individual years that were better, I mean a “back in my day” supposed golden age.

Hmm, I can see defining a golden age from a votals perspective more than anything. It is a shame that they're so bad these days, otherwise I agree.

Yes, I meant peak years in terms of vote totals and contest regularity. I'd rather have a contest than not have one and now we only get one every other year.

we won;t get a contest in 2021? that would be really disappointing.

abdou posted...

we won;t get a contest in 2021? that would be really disappointing.

Maybe toward the end of the year since GotD2 was relatively early last year, but I don't have high hopes.

Until the anti-rally garbage is removed, contests are pointless. Polls with 20k voters are beyond boring.

You can thank the anti-fun brigade for contests being awful.

do you have any original takes that you haven't been spewing for the last five years anymore

UltimaterializerX posted...

Until the anti-rally garbage is removed, contests are pointless. Polls with 20k voters are beyond boring.

You can thank the anti-fun brigade for contests being awful.

Alright, next Best. Game. Ever. contest, I'm gonna make sure Shadow of the Colossus and Hearthstone get rallied all the way to the final and you'll have to be forced to vote for one of them.

Advokaiser posted...

Alright, next Best. Game. Ever. contest, I'm gonna make sure Shadow of the Colossus and Hearthstone get rallied all the way to the final and you'll have to be forced to vote for one of them.

I would still support rallying even for a game I despise.

You can check the original GOTD writeups for proof. I hated SotC beating some of my favorites, but I loved how it was winning. I’ll never hate on something for rallying to win.

It makes contests more fun and increases vote totals. This isn’t even debatable.

UltimaterializerX posted...

It makes contests more fun and increases vote totals. This isn’t even debatable.

The problem with massive rallies is that they are extremely intrusive nowadays.

Imagine if you had a nice meeting at your house and suddenly some weird strangers decided to come in as well. At that point you may be like: “Well, you can hang around, I guess” and you welcome them cautiously, but they start bringing more and more people to the point where some of them start breaking your souvenirs, emptying your fridge without permission and even peeing on your carpet. Rallies are sometimes that bad.

We're not against ralliers per se — we're against people who have no intention whatsoever of participating in contests like civilized people and become part of our community.

The "anti-rallying measures" barely even do anything and are not particularly relevant to our votal problem.

Yeah, the anti-rally measures wouldn't do anything to stop any sort of sizable rally.

abdou posted...

we won;t get a contest in 2021? that would be really disappointing.

The trend for the last few contests is that we get one every 1.5 years, so if that holds true we'll get one later this year.

Leonhart4 posted...

Yeah, the anti-rally measures wouldn't do anything to stop any sort of sizable rally.

I'd be shocked if the forced voting in every poll didn't deter a ton of votes.

Forced voting is not an anti-rally measure. It was already in place in 2015.

Edit: Apparently not.

it probably does

even as someone who votes in every match regardless I don't really care for it

Yesmar_ posted...

Forced voting is not an anti-rally measure. It was already in place in 2015.

I'm pretty sure you didn't have to vote in every match in 2015. That changed with 2018.

Yeah you weren't forced to vote in every match in 2015, but the format heavily encouraged you to do so.

I think a lot of people assumed you had to vote in every match, so it was still kinda confusing regardless.

Yeah, it was clear in the Undertale matches that the other matches were affected and they often had clear favorites in them, but they didn't reach the same huge votals at all.

I personally have spoken with people not on GameFAQs.com who say having to vote for other matches besides the one they care about has deterred them from voting at all.

PrinceOfKoopas posted...

I personally have spoken with people not on GameFAQs.com who say having to vote for other matches besides the one they care about has deterred them from voting at all.

We all have. It's a very real thing.

And I'm not just saying this in a pro-rally sense. It hurts vote totals period because it genuinely confuses people. They pick a game they like, no vote button pops up, and then they just leave.

Ignoring the heavily rallied matches, the same group of matches in 2015 had similar vote totals so even without actually forcing people to vote, most people feel like they had to vote in all of the matches.

The alternatives are either bringing back 4-ways or day/night matches, reducing the field to 64 entrants or having a four month contest.

We could go back to one match a day sooner than we currently do at least. There's no reason for that to begin in the semi-finals.