Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1365

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1365-tournament-semifinal-link-vs-cloud-strife

Still the most important result in contest history!

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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

So we just got the top 2 from each poll it would seem. Yeah, this was an overly simple format.

Wouldn't be surprised now if it's found unnecessary to run this again because FFVIIR will win regardless.

Ghost of Tsushima very impressive. Animal Crossing doing very poorly considering it has the least amount of fanbase overlap with any of the other games in the poll. I imagine it will do considerably worse if it were only up against FF7R and Ghost of Tsushima.

Dunno, hard to judge fanbase overlap too much here I think.

I could see that final three happening, because it'd be the winner of each poll, so I guess we'll see.

I think Tsushima and Animal Crossing are close enough to warrant a final three. I feel like it's only when the winner has blown away the field by 10%+ that Allen hasn't seen the need to do a final three.

Yeah, I wouldn't doubt it any other year either, but this year seemed more low effort "let's get it over with" than usual.

Though the winner is the most important part, so yeah, probably!

I'd love to see how Ghost of Tsushima would do in a contest.

LeonhartFour posted...

Still the most important result in contest history!

Also, yes, this no longer has a chance of ever changing.

New Leaf was in Persona 5's division in GotD2 and is projected to get right around doubled by the latter.

FFVII remake currently has 62% on New Horizons here. I'd figure New Horizons is at least as strong as New Leaf and FFVII remake probably has overlap with Persona 5 Royal in this poll if nothing else.

Just for the heck of it, 2015 contest x-stats with adjustments I made:

1) Chrono Trigger – 48.93
2) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time – 47.95
3) Final Fantasy VII – 44.59
4) Pokémon Red & Blue – 43.26
5) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past – 42.68
6) Super Mario World – 42.4
7) Super Mario Bros. 3 – 41.96
8) Super Mario 64 – 41.96
9) Final Fantasy VI – 39.08
10) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask – 38.41
11) Super Metroid – 38
12) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess – 36.22
13) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker – 36.15
14) Super Smash Bros. Melee – 35.93
15) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim – 34.93
16) Final Fantasy X – 33.74
17) Final Fantasy IX – 33.12
18) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars – 33.11
19) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater – 32.49
20) Metal Gear Solid – 32.49
21) Kingdom Hearts – 32.4
22) Kingdom Hearts II – 32.12
23) Pokémon Gold & Silver – 31.61
24) Metroid Prime – 31.52
25) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night – 31.48
26) Resident Evil 4 – 31.14
27) Super Smash Bros. for Wii U – 30.96
28) Super Mario Galaxy – 30.71
29) The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion – 30.18
30) Shadow of the Colossus – 30.17
31) Mega Man X – 30.04
32) Fallout 3 – 29.97
33) Final Fantasy IV – 29.49
34) Final Fantasy VIII – 28.65
35) Final Fantasy Tactics – 28.34
36) Grand Theft Auto V – 28.34
37) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty – 28.25
38) GoldenEye (1997) – 28.2
39) Mass Effect – 27.93
40) Okami – 27.92
41) Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 27.47
42) Tetris – 27.39
43) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic – 26.57
44) Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots – 26.52
45) Half-Life 2 – 26.41
46) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 26.3
47) Fallout: New Vegas – 26.09
48) Chrono Cross - 26
49) BioShock – 25.89
50) The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 25.88
51) Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door – 25.84
52) Paper Mario 64 – 25.81
53) EarthBound – 25.77
54) The Last of Us – 25.68
55) Mass Effect 2 – 25.58
56) Diablo II – 25.56
57) Persona 4 – 25.16
58) Dark Souls I – 25.11
59) StarCraft I – 25.01
60) Tales of Symphonia – 24.88
61) Banjo-Kazooie – 24.8
62) Xenogears – 24.63
63) Red Dead Redemption – 24.6
64) Portal 2 – 24.5
65) Resident Evil – 24.45
66) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – 24.07
67) Half-Life – 24.02
68) Resident Evil 2 – 23.93
69) Final Fantasy XII – 23.91
70) Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy’s Kong Quest – 23.9
71) Xenoblade – 23.73
72) Batman: Arkham City – 23.63
73) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – 23.49
74) Mass Effect 3 – 23.44
75) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – 23.32
76) The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind – 23.27
77) Portal – 23.2
78) BioShock Infinite – 22.99
79) Fire Emblem: Awakening – 22.89
80) Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain – 22.4
81) Suikoden II – 22.16
82) Dragon Age: Origins – 22.09
83) Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos – 22.01
84) World of Warcraft – 21.81
85) Shenmue – 21.35
86) Borderlands 2 – 21.33
87) Bloodborne – 21.24
88) Perfect Dark – 20.31
89) Skies of Arcadia – 20.04
90) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves – 19.99
91) Silent Hill 2 – 19.97
92) Mother 3 – 19.82
93) Pokémon X & Y – 19.81
94) Halo: Combat Evolved – 19.43
95) Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate – 19.09
96) Demon’s Souls – 19.07
97) Baldur’s Gate II: Shadows of Amn – 18.69
98) Valkyria Chronicles – 18.52
99) Shovel Knight – 18.19
100) Assassin’s Creed II – 17.95
101) Deus Ex – 17.83
102) Bayonetta 2 – 17.72
103) Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King – 17.69
104) Minecraft – 16.82
105) Mario Kart 8 – 16.75
106) Civilization V – 16.72
107) Halo 3 – 16.69
108) Team Fortress 2 – 16.48
109) Undertale – 16.32
110) Super Mario Maker – 16.3
111) Persona 3 – 16.02
112) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney: Trials & Tribulations – 15.74
113) Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare – 15.61
114) The World Ends with You – 14.77
115) Journey – 14.21
116) Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal – 13.85
117) Splatoon – 13.6
118) Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 13.57
119) The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth – 13.37
120) Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings – 13.29
121) The Walking Dead – 13.24
122) Planescape: Torment – 12.97
123) Destiny – 12.76
124) Life is Strange – 11.38
125) 999: Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors – 11.17
126) Zero Escape: Virtue’s Last Reward – 10.7
127) Cave Story – 10.23
128) Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft – 8.6

AxemRedRanger posted...

New Leaf was in Persona 5's division in GotD2 and is projected to get right around doubled by the latter.

FFVII remake currently has 62% on New Horizons here. I'd figure New Horizons is at least as strong as New Leaf and FFVII remake probably has overlap with Persona 5 Royal in this poll if nothing else.

I'd take New Horizons over New Leaf without thinking.

To be fair, New Leaf most likely got a boost during GotD2 thanks to New Horizons.

Hearthstone is the worst game ever made so I approve those changes.

Hearthstone was dead last by any metric regardless

Yeah, I'd imagine New Horizons being way ahead of New Leaf.

Ghost of Tsushima is looking surprisingly good.

Really, really good showing from Tsushima. Pretty decent from Hades (which I’d say overlaps with AC as it’s a Switch console exclusive).

Regarding New Leaf vs. New Horizons, the latter is obviously stronger, but given the timing it’s hard not to imagine New Leaf not just acting as a New Horizons proxy in the last contest.

Disappointed in so few polls this year, but at least we should get at least one more. At least bring back the expansion poll from last year, there were certainly enough to qualify (and both Xenoblade and Pikmin 3 would fit there - also Doom Eternal’s DLC). Well, it was a weird year, maybe we’ll see more next time.

I just realized we didn't see 13 Sentinels in a poll either, and I could see that as a game this site would take to.

Leonhart4 posted...

Hearthstone was dead last by any metric regardless

Yeah I didn't have to adjust a lot of the bracket too much, which is a relief and a half. Part of me wonders if the RBY/SMB3/SMW trio should be adjusted upwards, but they're in a surprisingly good place considering.

Half-Life 2, Demon's Souls, Fallout 3's fourpack, BioShock, Silent Hill 2, and Sonic 2's fourpack all received the most adjustments. Past that, I adjusted Chrono Trigger down to 51% on Ocarina of Time instead of 54% (seriously guys, what was up with that?) which resulted in that whole division going down, then I adjusted FFVI up 1% on CT and its eightpack accordingly (this resulted in a net negative) and similarly with Super Mario RPG with its eightpack being adjusted accordingly. I kept Metroid Prime's (and therefore Morrowind's), GoldenEye's (and therefore Diablo II's), Final Fantasy VIII's (and therefore Vice City's) and Resident Evil 4's (and its eightpack as a result) numbers on CT the same as the official adjusted stats which resulted in all those games going down too.

I demand Allen find another 11,000 votes for Yakuza: Like a Dragon.

I said this before but man, the next contest is going to have so many good election memes.

Leonhart4 posted...

I just realized we didn't see 13 Sentinels in a poll either, and I could see that as a game this site would take to.

That’s a very good point. It feels like this year would have actually been a better year to have platform awards (combining the two gens) than last year. Yakuza would probably win an Xbox poll which is funny.

New Horizons seems to be the pinnacle of Animal Crossing. People who have played the game, really, really love it, for some reason.

It seems to be a game for everyone, much like Mario games.

1) Chrono Trigger – 48.93
2) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time – 47.95
3) Final Fantasy VII – 44.59
4) Pokémon Red & Blue – 43.26
5) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past – 42.68

If these adjustments are accurate, how in the world would people say with a straight face that this was a weak OoT?

Weak is a relative term, of course. OoT was dominant in 2009, and it legitimately looked like it could lose to CT in 2015.

Advokaiser posted...

New Horizons seems to be the pinnacle of Animal Crossing. People who have played the game, really, really love it, for some reason.

It seems to be a game for everyone, much like Mario games.

While customizing your island is quite fun, I don't see the game as that much of a step up from previous games. The series was already huge, both Wild World and New Leaf sold over 10 million games each. I think it came out at the right time. COVID allowed people who don't play this genre to experience it.

Switch is also huge and people had been waiting to play Animal Crossing on it.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Pretty decent from Hades (which I’d say overlaps with AC as it’s a Switch console exclusive).

Huh?

Hades is only on PC and Switch right now. Since this is GameFAQs, Hades's strength is mostly going to be coming from the Switch release. The claim is that Hades will lose some of that support to Animal Crossing.

I am happy that Yakuza 7 is in the poll!

Leonhart4 posted...

Weak is a relative term, of course. OoT was dominant in 2009, and it legitimately looked like it could lose to CT in 2015.

I think you're underestimating how strong Chrono Trigger has become over the past decade. Just look at the gap between OoT and the rest of the field.

If any game looked "weak" in 2015 was FFVII (and arguably Skyrim).

and yet based on those stats OoT wasn't much stronger than FFVII...!

(although FFVII looked pretty fine to me for the most part)

Safer_777 posted...

I am happy that Yakuza 7 is in the poll!

I got it for Christmas but haven't started it yet. Seems to be getting a lot of praise which kinda surprised me tbh.

1v1 GotY final poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8328-

I was disappointed that Animal Crossing wasn't in today's poll. This really should have been a 3-way poll instead.

Holy s*** FFVII Remake. Currently running over 60% right now with this early vote.

And now it's fallen back down to earth again.

Nice to see "FFVII" winning again. FFVIIR isn't the remake I dreamed of but it's a very very good game and deserved a GOTY award.

FF7R Power Hour ended early. It's in freefall right now.

what happened to ffvii trends

Trend chart from yesterday's GotY poll:

Time | AC: NH | FFVIIR | Tsushima | Hades | P5R | Yakuza
EBV | 16.22% | 31.08% | 20.95% | 12.16% | 13.51% | 6.08%
PHV | 19.46% | 28.97% | 21.30% | 11.89% | 11.35% | 7.03%
FNV | 17.69% | 29.01% | 21.80% | 13.45% | 10.53% | 7.52%
BSV | 17.69% | 30.99% | 21.56% | 14.33% | 9.43% | 6.00%
DSV | 18.42% | 29.59% | 21.37% | 13.74% | 9.52% | 7.37%
ASV | 18.77% | 29.17% | 21.25% | 14.06% | 10.65% | 6.10%
SNV | 18.75% | 32.97% | 21.55% | 10.13% | 10.34% | 6.25%

Based on yesterday's trends, I'd expect FFVII Remake to finish today's poll with a higher percentage than it has right now.

Well, FF7R certainly isn't a beastly game.

No matter how much content it has people are still just gonna look at it as Part 1.

Remakes tend to perform poorly, relative to the original.

Yes I know this is the second year that a remake has won.

If FF7R was a complete game, it would undoubtedly be the #1 game on the site for the next decade at least. Even still, it was easily the best game that came out this year, good to see it dominating GotY

charmander6000 posted...

Remakes tend to perform poorly, relative to the original.

Resident Evil 2 Remake is almost certainly stronger than the original.

RE2 is the exception. FFVIIR is fine, but it's only one part of the game. This is pretty impressive for Ghost of Tsushima.

FF7R is a complete game. It’s the first game in a series, not the first episode of a game.

Lightning Strikes posted...

FF7R is a complete game. It’s the first game in a series, not the first episode of a game.

It's a complete game but it's also going to be regarded as a part of a whole by the fanbase.

Okay, so...question time, what do we think wins, Ghost of Tsushima vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses?

I am surprised that The Last Of Us 2 wasn't even in yesterday's poll since it seems that it got so many praises.

Advokaiser posted...

I think you're underestimating how strong Chrono Trigger has become over the past decade. Just look at the gap between OoT and the rest of the field.

If any game looked "weak" in 2015 was FFVII (and arguably Skyrim).

The official adjusted stats have Chrono Trigger getting 54% on Ocarina of Time. I adjusted CT down to 51% on OOT and its whole division went down accordingly.

Skyrim looked good in 2015.

These 1v1 final polls mean very little in contests, we've seen before.

Leonhart4 posted...

It's a complete game but it's also going to be regarded as a part of a whole by the fanbase.

Yeah, you’re right. I think there are other factors in its strength though, I think this is about where we can expect a strong new FF game to be.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Skyrim looked good in 2015.

These 1v1 final polls mean very little in contests, we've seen before.

They were a big precursor of Fallout 3 doing so well against Brawl. The one people cite as a bad example was Three Houses, but that went out in a match that was first party Nintendo RPG vs. first party Nintendo RPG.