Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1362

LusterSoldier posted...

Yes, there's no registered user bonus in effect for this poll. Which was definitely a mistake because I wanted to see it here just for consistency with the rest of this contest.

You should see if Allen can at least get the numbers for registered users, so we can at least calculate what it would be.

LeonhartFour posted...

But she could!

When you replaced Zelda and Samus with Zelda and Samus in metal bikinis Samus went up like 8%!

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

When you replaced Zelda and Samus with Zelda and Samus in metal bikinis Samus went up like 8%!

that was pre-BOTW Zelda!

LeonhartFour posted...

that was pre-BOTW Zelda!

That just means that if Zelda = Samus now, butt Samus beats butt Zelda with 58%.

Contests Butts & Discussion

@CaptainOfCrush

Zelda series couldn't win a best mustache contest.

QJD1381 posted...

Zelda series couldn't win a best mustache contest.

My boy.

QJD1381 posted...

Zelda series couldn't win a best mustache contest.

https://www.zeldadungeon.net/wiki/Cheesy_Mustache

zelda win again

I'm disappointed the poll don't have an option for Best Years in Female Villains Quotes

Why not Game of the 20th Century? We're never going to do a GOTD for the 80s but it seems weird to leave out the likes of Tetris, LoZ and SMB1 - be a bit less fodder and make the contest a bit more grand.

This sites polls give a really warped perception of gamer's favorite games/characters because this site is so heavily Nintendo leaning followed by JRPG leaning. I could be wrong but I assume Millennials are the most common age demographic here? Most of us grew up when Nintendo completely dominated(and also had some of the best JRPG's of all time) followed by Sony really stepping up with tons of JRPG's like the golden age of Squaresoft. One of Nintendos biggest blunders was probably not coughing up enough cash to keep Squaresoft on their consoles, took a long time from then for Squarenix to eventually go multiplat, but that's a totally different subject.

I'm not criticizing or anything, I'm a huge JRPG fan myself and big fan of Nintendo games, I'm just saying it makes it really easy to predict winners and I really don't think it represents the majority of gamers. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like if you did this poll someplace else then The Witcher 3 would win simply because both games are universally praised BUT only people that own Nintendo consoles have played BoTW whereas Witcher 3 is multiplat so it must have many more people that played it.

iHateMutanTs posted...

I'm not criticizing or anything, I'm a huge JRPG fan myself and big fan of Nintendo games, I'm just saying it makes it really easy to predict winners and I really don't think it represents the majority of gamers.

Here's the key to why a lot of us really enjoy the contests.

There's more to this than just the finals. Seeing my bracket launch into the leaderboard because Xenoblade took a Division Final that only 6% of the site's brackets predicted meant way more to me than Breath of the Wild getting 56% on Witcher 3.

@iHateMutanTs It doesn't work that way. Sure we may know the winner when the bracket first is announced but still there are a lot of matches so even if you know the final winner it is fun for the contests. As for love for Nintendo and JRPG's you are correct BUT the site got created as a place to read faqs on FF7 actually so that is how it started to get popular. As for Nintendo Americans just like the company.

Also every site has it's stick. Here it is Nintendo first, then JRPG's. And from Nintendo it is Link and all the others next and for the JRPG's it is Final Fantasy first and then all the others.

All votes are mostly meaningless because you would have different results depending on the sites.
Of course, the fact Gamefaqs is mostly a forgotten website with puny votals mean the results are propably quite far from the standard.

Still, hard to say which game would win such a contest if you could ask everyone.

FE: Three Houses won a contest with 15m+ votes after all.(but it was only 2019) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards_2019

QJD1381 posted...

Zelda series couldn't win a best mustache contest.

Talon vs. Ingo finals

@_SecretSquirrel

_SecretSquirrel posted...

@creativename Looking at it now, and there's a couple things.

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r5/botw-Reala.jpg is missing and has BotW's Round 4 pic in its place.

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/448607.jpg is also missing from Round 4.

Those should be on these two pages respectively:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/thumbnails.php?album=19&page=23

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/thumbnails.php?album=19&page=22

Perhaps you need to refresh to see them.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

@creativename

Looking over the match pics for the season.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/gotd2/8035-1-1.jpg is a duplicate of the previous round's match pic and needs to be replaced with

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r5/botw-_SecretSquirrel.png

OK, fixed that, it should be on page 23.

Thanks again.

And we didn't get that Skyrim/Smash Ultimate bonus match, because now all traces of the contest have vanished from the homepage.

Yeah, let us be real. Nobody care for this site. We barely have 10000 people visiting daily so since mostly older people and loyal people stay here. This is why people say all the time we don't play new games. I mean the newest game that is strong is Witcher 3 which is 5 years old at this point. Plus games like Red Dead and Gta which are super good lose from games like Ace Attorney. I mean come on .

Drat.

creativename posted...

OK, fixed that, it should be on page 23.

Thanks again.

No, thank you creative. I appreciate having all this cool stuff archived. It's invaluable to our community to have all this stuff preserved.

Trend chart:

Time | Majora | BOTW | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 41.32% | 58.68% | 242 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 37.91% | 62.09% | 1944 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 37.93% | 62.07% | 5344 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 37.30% | 62.70% | 2118 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 35.72% | 64.28% | 3578 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 38.74% | 61.26% | 3402 | (17:00-24:00)

Match was pretty steady for the first half, but BOTW had a better morning vote and Majora had the better day vote proper.

Whew, final trend chart of the year!

Without a registered user bonus in the bonus match, it's hard to determine what the results would have looked like with the bonus votes in effect. BotW would most likely have done worse with the registered users, but a Zelda/Zelda match like this one most likely has relatively little difference between registered and anonymous users.

Predicting the adjusted vote total is much easier. As a bonus match, the incentive to rally has been taken away as it's not officially part of the contest. So the percentage of registered users would be on the higher end. Assuming 54.50% registered users, the adjusted vote total would have been 25323. Extending the potential range of the registered user voting pool to include 54.00% on the low end and 55.00% on the high end, the adjusted vote total would likely fall into a fairly narrow range between 25241 and 25405.

Hey Luster, what was the vote total for all 127 matches?

Best music track contest

SwiftyDC posted...

Best music track contest

I'd love to see what azuarc's guru pick for that would be.

Did we ever get GOTD1+GOTD2 xstats

Hbthebattle posted...

Did we ever get GOTD1+GOTD2 xstats

I'll get to it

SwiftyDC posted...

Best music track contest

that's a great idea!

SwiftyDC posted...

Best music track contest

Would be neat even if the votals would be lower, but I feel people will just vote for the game they like more even if the track is trash. Would any track from a game 2010 onward be a 1 or 2 seed?

tgs2 posted...

Would be neat even if the votals would be lower, but I feel people will just vote for the game they like more even if the track is trash. Would any track from a game 2010 onward be a 1 or 2 seed?

At least it's more feasible than it was in the past, since the tracks would just get hosted on YouTube.

hope you guys are looking forward to zelda overworld theme vs. one winged angel in the finals

I wonder how they’d do it though. It would be pretty cool if they could have a play button and voters can actually listen before voting but that might be a pipe dream with copyrights and whatnot.

transcience posted...

hope you guys are looking forward to zelda overworld theme vs. one winged angel in the finals

more like Super Mario Bros. Level 1-1

At least Corridors of Time should have a good run.

Imagine Frog's Theme making a comeback while listening to Frog's Theme.

Averia posted...

I'm disappointed the poll don't have an option for Best Years in Female Villains Quotes

1998 would win

Finished with 330 points, which is top 942 out of 8585 brackets
Second chance with 650, which is top 108 out of 5207 brackets

The main bracket results are not good at all, the second chance bracket results are pretty good
This is mostly my fault for trying to be a smartass and going too many times against the consensus

I overestimated Animal Crossing New Leaf and Xenoblade Chronicles 2...a lot. I had AC getting to the division finals and XC2 winning it's division..yeah (well, I also had Xenoblade 1 winning it's division, and that worked out fine, with 6% prediction rate, which is the lowest in the contest)
I super overestimated HGSS and underestimated Skyrim
Those were my worst mistakes and they cost tons of points and could have been easily avoided
The rest (Celeste>Rayman, Fallout>GOW, Ori>Dragon Age etc) are whatever

i feel like the reason I did better in the second chance bracket was because I was thrown down from my high horse and considered things better, and the only match I got wrong was Mass Effect 2 > Resident Evil 2, but it was a total tossup and not my fault

I haven't watched the poll yesterday. I am surpised that so many people want to see best game of 90s. Also most want to see something else? Like what?

Origami Peach for the next character battle/ villains contest

If we have a 90's games contests then the rule of 2 should be abolished

I don't see any world where The Boss doesn't immediately win the female villains contest.

Or is she disqualified for being a true Patriot in the end?

Glados could probably reasonably get ~45% on The Boss based on 2018 results so if anything strange happens an upset wouldn’t be too unreasonable. Slim pickings indeed after those two though. Super Metroid’s rise over time could mean good things for Mother Brain but Ridley’s the Metroid villain people actually care about so it’s hard to see her improving enough from Villains to actually make midcarder, even with “don’t underestimate Nintendo” factor, but that might have a slim possibility of doing it too.

or Allen could go “f*** it, if i’m actually hosting female villains let’s go crazy” and allow Dark Samus and she wins.

Jenova?

I think Jenova will depend on whether we see FF7R part 2 before the next contest (doubtful)

Ultimecia imhotbqh

Main bracket final score: 380 (top 178)
Second chance final score: 520 (too low in the rankings to mention, but it's bad)

I was doing okay for most of the contest, consistently in the 50-80 ranking range. I was buoyed by some picks like Ultimate > Odyssey, Dragon Quest > Monster Hunter, and RE2 > Bloodborne. I was at my best during rounds 3 and 4 and managed to barely crack the top 50 for a day, I think after the RE2/Bloodborne battle. I was surprised when I started actually looking at the standing around Division 3 and realizing I was in the top 100. Divisions 2 and 6 were the only ones I picked perfectly.

My main blunders were thinking Skyrim > Witcher 3 and Last of Us > Dark Souls. I also got Division 4 completely wrong, thinking the final would be a bout between Fire Emblem and GTA with the former winning. Also thought Undertale and Uncharted 4 would win their four-packs, but that's not as bad in hindsight.

Best showing I've had since I started playing in 2015, only somewhat following the board's thoughts and not being into statistics at all, so I'm happy with how I did.

Sometimes I wish the site's tastes reflected my own a bit more. I'm a PC gamer who mostly plays on Steam, who can't afford new consoles. I like strategy games, adventure games, and VNs. My favorite game in the contest was probably Crusader Kings II, and I've only played a handful of the titles. I still don't know what Celeste is.

I have wondered what the seeds would be like if the board had a lot of Steam players. I assume the higher seeds would be things like Hollow Knight, Stardew Valley, Dota 2, Crusader Kings II, Cities: Skylines, Dark Souls, Divinity: Original Sin, DOOM 2015, Ark, Ori and the Blind Forest, with Witcher 3 and GTA5 leading the pack. I'd probably do way better in that contest, but oh well.

Celeste was probably biggest on PC, haha.