Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1362

Wow, surprised that Villains II is polling so well.

Is Dark Link finally about to make his contest debut?

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Best Weapon

Cue everyone nominating Ultima Weapon

Lionheart please

Did CJayC or SBAllen launch the quotes contest? I can't remember anymore.

HeroicCrono posted...

Did CJayC or SBAllen launch the quotes contest? I can't remember anymore.

It was CJayC.

thanks for a really fun contest everyone!

lol Mortal Kombat 11 thanks to Odyssey.

And lol Odyssey placing 20th, we all know it should be top 10.

lordjers posted...

lol Mortal Kombat 11 thanks to Odyssey.

And lol Odyssey placing 20th, we all know it should be top 10.

When you allow yourself to get SFF'd. You don't deserve s***.

MithosLowell posted...

When you allow yourself to get SFF'd. You don't deserve s***.

Goodbye to non-Witcher WRPGs and non OoT/BotW Nintendo.

We should get a best female character contest. Barely any of them ever actually make the real contests

LamarJackson posted...

We should get a best female character contest. Barely any of them ever actually make the real contests

Didn't tifa do really well in the last character battle?

Currently working on adjusted xtstats. Sneak peeks:

-SMG2 seems stronger than 2015, either that or it overperformed on Witcher
-God of War is getting adjusted upwards, and that's been cross-checked against a lot of different comparisons
-Last of Us is getting adjusted upwards for obvious reasons, also backed up by several comparisons
-Witcher 3 is getting adjusted down a bit due to overperforming on BotW, did a bunch of calculations and comparisons to make sure it should
-Division 3 is f***ed

LamarJackson posted...

We should get a best female character contest. Barely any of them ever actually make the real contests

we got half of one that one time and we were already scraping the bottom of the strength barrel just to hit 32 female characters

a 64 character female contest would have like 32 characters weaker than Amy Rose which sounds like a bad time

unless it’s a female villains contest. Then i’m on board.

What about Shovel Knight.

Seems like fairly obvious SFF against Odyssey, but I don’t know how you would calculate that one.

Lightning Strikes posted...

What about Shovel Knight.

Seems like fairly obvious SFF against Odyssey, but I don’t know how you would calculate that one.

Keeping in mind that stats this full of SFF and with tons of new games (making it much harder to draw comparisons) involve a lot of guesstimation, Odyssey Is looking very good in the adjusted stats. You basically have to set it vs. Ultimate as a 51-49 AND give Shovel Knight a bit of extra "eh, I guess there was SFF?" love for the overall indie hierarchy across the bracket to make any sense, and for Shovel Knight to even match the strength it had 5 years ago.

right now, taking this match at face value, Witcher 3, Skyrim and Persona 5 beat the entire field in the last GoTD contest.

I think God of War looks pretty good where it is. At least not much of an adjustment is needed. Galaxy 2 is probably the best way to determine Witcher 3.

https://pastebin.com/CNN815Y1

Preliminary adjusted stats.

Woke up, checked the results. Okay this I didn't expected. Yeah I know that nobody cares for MM now but damn.

Oh hey, 15th on the second chance leaderboard!

And 33rd on regular with my alternate bracket. It only flipped Skyrim/Witcher and it's the only alternate I made (except for a favorites bracket, which obviously wasn't a real shot).

ctesjbuvf posted...

I think God of War looks pretty good where it is. At least not much of an adjustment is needed. Galaxy 2 is probably the best way to determine Witcher 3.

Unadjusted God of War throws a wrench into a few too many things. Galaxy 2 ended up being entirely unhelpful because it's way above it's 2015 value by every metric so I had to use other stuff.

128) INSIDE - 7.13943791233456

Now that’s beautiful.

KamikazePotato posted...

https://pastebin.com/CNN815Y1

Preliminary adjusted stats.

It looks good. Some uncertainties like GoW, but there always is.

Safer_777 posted...

Woke up, checked the results. Okay this I didn't expected. Yeah I know that nobody cares for MM now but damn.

It's called SFF, mate. MM will still do good.

KamikazePotato posted...

Unadjusted God of War throws a wrench into a few too many things. Galaxy 2 ended up being entirely unhelpful because it's way above it's 2015 value by every metric so I had to use other stuff.

I see.

Did you adjust division 4 in any way or just leave it as it is?

i hope we get to see Skyrim vs Smash ultimate

i still have a gut feeling smash is being overrated.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I see.

Did you adjust division 4 in any way or just leave it as it is?

Minor changes here and there. Penalized P4 slightly for its rally, boosted Xenoblade slightly to account for SFF, boosted Three Houses a bit to account for SFF. And by slightly I do mean slightly. Things were already lining up decently with the rest of the field (well, at least the few viable comparisons available were) - Xenoblade probably had a bandwagon in its final match because it's looking like it barely got SFFd by Ultimate. RDR1 ended up in the same ballpark as RDR2 so I didn't want to mess with P4's value too much.

Ultimate's final value is the biggest question mark in the bracket, which is problematic because it affects like half the bracket, but I made some comparisons (Arkham City/Spider-Man, some 2015 stuff, ect.) and did my best.

KamikazePotato posted...

Xenoblade probably had a bandwagon in its final match because it's looking like it barely got SFFd by Ultimate.

Ha, I tried convincing a bunch of people that for the full day.

I think it's as good as it gets. Setting up BotW > Smash > Odyssey was always gonna make this hard.

P5 was rallying pretty hard against Witcher too right?

I’d love to see a Rockstar fourpack next time, with GTAV, RDR, and RDR2. We almost got part of that!

Character Battle next!

Really so people voting for Game of the Decade are pretty much saying NO to contests for a whole decade. Booooring.

No, it says Game of the Decade: 1990s. Not 2020s.

Oh, I read that wrong. So a GOTD 1990s... Ok, not so boring, I guess.

Lightning Strikes posted...

P5 was rallying pretty hard against Witcher too right?

As far as I know they died off pretty quickly.

I'm not surprised it's doing well. We'd get to have all the matches we really wanted to see in 2015, but Melee and Undertale prevented.

I think Luster estimated the Persona 5 rallies to be 300-600 votes ftr.

Glad to see Series doing well also! I’ve been a proponent of that one for a while.

Yo KP, another question. You adjusted God of War, did you also adjust ME3 and/or ACO?

So in the newest EVO Smash will not be there. Is this the first time ever?

Smash has only been in Evo for like 7 years. Evo goes back to the 90's.

Oh okay then.

this isn't really "Evo". its an online version so things have to be very different. hell, they put a pony game in there because there was nothing else with good enough online to run a tournament.

the evo that was supposed to happen before the world went to the dumpster did have Smash.

I still don't get why they're even bothering with it tbh. From watching that trailer those 4 online games look like they have worldwide entry. So some random in Ethiopia could end up winning one of the games by pure luck.

yeah..even with the best netcode in the multiverse, simply due to the nature of fighting games online between two countries too far apart will simply never be viable.

there probably will be a lot of rules in place to prevent that from happening.

KamikazePotato posted...

Currently working on adjusted xtstats. Sneak peeks:

-SMG2 seems stronger than 2015, either that or it overperformed on Witcher
-God of War is getting adjusted upwards, and that's been cross-checked against a lot of different comparisons
-Last of Us is getting adjusted upwards for obvious reasons, also backed up by several comparisons
-Witcher 3 is getting adjusted down a bit due to overperforming on BotW, did a bunch of calculations and comparisons to make sure it should
-Division 3 is f***ed

SMG2 looking stronger since 2015 seems strange. Just how high upward did you set Witcher 3? From my calculations, it should be around FFX in strength, which matches SMG2's 2015 xstats relatively well. The issue with setting Witcher 3 even higher is that MGSV will start looking boosted from 2015 and that's more problematic than SMG2.

90s gotd winning this poll is pretty funny.

those KP stats feel like Witcher’s entire side is too high. not sure what I would do other than take stats with a grain of salt like I usually do.

Well, that mostly went as expected. BotW, Witcher 3, Dark Souls, and Skyrim in the top spots seems fair enough. I bet God of War would have gotten further if it hadn't been pitted against Witcher 3 so early. I do think a complex masterpiece like Xenoblade losing to a simple fighting game like Smash Ultimate is kind of weird though, much as I like Smash (though I still prefer Melee). One interesting thing that surprised me was Persona 5 making it so far, especially on a western game board. I guess I should play it sometime, seeing as I like both anime and JRPG's.

The weirdest part of the poll it Got Villains II somehow being in second.

Maybe it's old enough for people to have forgotten how dull it was.

ctesjbuvf posted...

The weirdest part of the poll it Got Villains II somehow being in second.

Maybe it's old enough for people to have forgotten how dull it was.

I'd imagine a lot of people voting for Villains or Series weren't here for them!

Am I the only one who's noticed the parallels between the top flight of this contest and the Noble Nine back when the term was still relevant? To break them down:

• BotW vs. Link: both obvious-winner Zelda entrants; both tore through their respective foes (except Link in 2003 ofc) before not quite looking as dominant as expected in the finals.
• Witcher 3 vs. Cloud: both are comfortably the second strongest entrants of their respective fields. Also, both would lose the board vote to pretty much anything, as Witcher 3 proved against Skyrim, before rising to heaven with the overnight vote, something which Witcher 3 even managed against BotW much as Cloud always did against Link.
• Skyrim vs. Sephiroth: both the third-place entrants, of a kind with second place, and they each had matches that proved a thing or two about said hierarchy. Again, Skyrim's trends were much like Sephiroth's, as it lost the board vote against everything other than Witcher 3 before climbing the entire rest of its matches, again except against Witcher 3.
• Smash Ultimate vs. Mario: both the second-strongest Nintendo presences in their respective fields, and each capable of SFFing any lesser Nintendo entrants while getting SFF'd just as hard by the predominant Zelda.
• Mario Odyssey vs. Samus: the hierarchical relationship between SSBU and SMO proved to be much like the relationship between Mario and Samus in 2005, even though most were again expecting a much closer match. In both cases, the more broadly-appealing entrant won out over the fan favorite.

Unfortunately, it's more of a stretch to tie anything else in this field to the last few members of the Noble Nine. Here's my best effort:

• Persona 5 vs. Crono: Both relatively niche JRPG entrants, and Witcher 3/Persona 5 was quite akin to both Cloud/Crono 2018 matches, albeit the latter were after the Noble Nine had stopped being a relevant concept.
• Dark Souls vs. Mega Man: Both fought against the third strongest entrants in their respective fields, in matches with upset hype, and gave it all they could for quite a while before letting the DNV run away from them.
• God of War vs. Sonic: This particular comparison mainly holds water for 2003, where in each case, the sheer magnitude of the losses sustained by these low-end NN-level entrants proved the winner was a threat and a half. Of course, both winners had already outperformed, but it arguably took their Round 4 results to get B8 to stand up and notice. Alternatively, you could go as far as to say both GoW and Sonic had already quietly been exposed prior to their painful losses.
• Xenoblade vs. Snake: Again a comparison focused on a specific year, in this case 2005. Both entrants' strength was doubted pre-contest, and both had tough-looking paths. Each one took care of business in impressive fashion despite minor Round 4 slip-ups before bowing out respectably against the Mario of their respective brackets. There's also somewhat of a parallel to 2006, where both had hype-fueled, expectation-smashing runs that ended at the hands of a Nintendo entrant.

I'm guessing most of the people voted based on the last run dates. They see "Oh it's been 14 years since series, I wanna see that!"

yeah absolutely nobody wants to see a new series contest