Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1361

_SJimW_ posted...

I wonder if the Persona 2 guide going viral could have impacted Persona 5 / Witcher 3 if that happened then

Imagine if a stunt like this Persona 2 guide-thing happened that day and it brought enough traffic to defeat Witcher 3.

Move over, reddit: contributors have the rallying high ground now.

Anyone got a FAQ up they can edit similarily in future matches to help their game lol?

UltimaterializerX posted...

Allen never sent the picsmiths PMs about a second bonus match, so if one does exist it is a legit surprise.

If there really is a surprise bonus match that's not Smash/Skyrim, the first thing that came to mind was literally Link vs. COVID-19.

LusterSoldier posted...

If the second bonus match really is Skyrim/Ultimate, there would be no need for pic submissions because Allen can re-use the existing submissions for both games.

i really hope its not smash skyrim. That would be boring

Mac Arrowny posted...

Luster's been posting adjusted percentages for rallies all contest.

Those are still just guesses and I don't like guessing.

HaRRicH posted...

Imagine if a stunt like this Persona 2 guide-thing happened that day and it brought enough traffic to defeat Witcher 3.

Move over, reddit: contributors have the rallying high ground now.

No we don't.

Trust me, I have a very large contributor page and can see the page hits. There is a reason I know certain things won't amount to squat.

LeonhartFour posted...

Those are still just guesses and I don't like guessing.

But rally trends are still clear, are they not? At least when there's an abnormal spike inbetween updates.

It's still impossible to know exactly how many votes a rally brings in or how many percentage points it swings.

And if a game rallies literally every single round anyway, you might as well consider that part of its inherent strength.

Personal playthrough topic embedded in stats topic because I'm a lazy ass progress: Witcher 3 is getting a little better

It's tough because games typically only rallies in matches they're losing. There's just no other simple solution than not do anything about it.

Though adjusting for SFF, bandwagons and what not is also always with uncertainties.

ctesjbuvf posted...

It's tough because games typically only rallies in matches they're losing. There's just no other simple solution than not do anything about it.

Though adjusting for SFF, bandwagons and what not is also always with uncertainties.

Yeah, there will always be intangible and unmeasurable variables. It's up to each individual viewer to determine what they accept and don't accept.

But if I'm making adjustments, I'm going to use concrete data.

Which is perfectly fair.

And you can always compare to the raw results and see if somehing got adjusted and then decide for yourself if you want to.

Random question:

Dota 2 vs. Destiny, who ya got?

PostContestUlti posted...

No we don't.

Trust me, I have a very large contributor page and can see the page hits. There is a reason I know certain things won't amount to squat.

You just have to make an edit crazy enough to get a story about it posted to Kotaku. That's what will really drive the traffic.

LeonhartFour posted...

Dota 2 vs. Destiny, who ya got?

My garbage disposal unit is who I got for that match

I think it'd guess Destiny had less votes against it here... maybe. Would be weird to pick either of them to win anything.

Going with Dota 2 as it's the one with an actual community?

I was just asking because Dota 2 and Destiny are worth similar percentages on Smash Ultimate and Witcher 3.

So Witcher 3 has proven itself to be plenty legit, but not getting a rally from CD Projekt Red has been one of the biggest blue balls in contest history too. We've talked about it for five years it seems like, they alluded to being open to rallying in the last Character Battle if they were notified sooner, and then today on the day of the championship when they were the major underdog that was impressing on its own anyway...they have somebody on their staff like something on Twitter and their FB page makes an unrelated sale on their game of the year edition of their game.

I'm all for them not rallying, terrific, whatever, but we've had this fear that they can just do it whenever they felt like it and run this contest into the ground...and they didn't. Something about that makes Witcher 3 a star of the contest and turd of the contest at the same time.

Maybe they were just being nice when they showed interest before. They wouldn't have known that GameFAQs would do more contests and that we would remember their words 5 years later.

@HaRRicH I do agree. A rally would be fine. BUT then again do you think companies care for random contests in video game sites? Pretty sure polls like this exist like every week in a gaming site.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Maybe they were just being nice when they showed interest before. They wouldn't have known that GameFAQs would do more contests and that we would remember their words 5 years later.

When was the last time they actually did anything like this? It's possible they cared about accolades like Game of the Year, or Best Game Ever 2015 back when the game was new, but perhaps they don't think it will do anything for their brand with the game being out for several years now.

I think a lot changes in 5 years too. The internal culture of the company may have changed since as a company grows, things tend to get stricter in what can and can't be done without authorization. Social media has also changed in 5 years too where a rally may look different in terms of how it portrays a company now compared to then.

Also with the COVID outbreak maybe that's something they could have casually discussed as a throwaway comment in office and they say 'Sure do it' whereas with everyone working remote it isn't something that might get dropped into a conversation and it isn't going to be important enough to warrant bringing up.

I think without all these rally attempts witcher would have been at 42-43 which is respectable nonetheless.Take into account that Zelda was most likely heavily antivoted as well, had this been an earlier round it might have been 60-40 instead of 56-44.

Advokaiser posted...

If there really is a surprise bonus match that's not Smash/Skyrim, the first thing that came to mind was literally Link vs. COVID-19.

What I thought might be fun is to have Link fight Corona (the hero/player character of the Sega Genesis Zelda clone Crusader of Centy.) It's a good game, but it probably wouldn't ever get its star in a real Character Battle. Under these circumstances though, Corona could do some real damage to Link.

if you want a Corona in the contest just nominate Bowsette.

edit:
and just go all in with the Persona controversy.

Link vs. God.

Maybe the fire spell from Super Mario RPG called Corona finally gets a chance to shine.

ShatteredElysium posted...

The internal culture of the company may have changed since as a company grows, things tend to get stricter in what can and can't be done without authorization.

I honestly think it's this

When your game has sold 90 billion copies and shareholders are breathing down your neck to make sure Cyberpunk sells 900 billion copies, you're not really allowed to be as cheeky as you once were.

Their current corporate culture probably think it'd be tactless to tell people to vote against the flagship title of one of the systems Witcher III is on.

Whenever the Gwent developers do a stream it's very lighthearted and jokey, and those are headed by the Senior Communications Manager of CDPR itself. It's obviously a different team but they share personnel. You guys are making it sound like they're all living in cages and need to ask their managers if they're allowed to speak lmao

I don't know what to believe, so I'll just jump on a fun point to counter:

MechanicalWall posted...

Their current corporate culture probably think it'd be tactless to tell people to vote against the flagship title of one of the systems Witcher III is on.

Undertale rallied against Melee before ending up on the Switch and getting into Ultimate.

Anyway, Majora's Mask storms the board vote before losing.

Quite the start for MM

Only one bonus match today. Judging from the vote totals, it's clear the registered user bonus is not in effect here.

Glad to see Breath of the Wild is already up big

BotW is such a monster.

Calm down, BotW.

Uhh

BotW vs OoT please

Witcher 3 > Majoras Mask

BotW is going to make the entire 2010 field look like s***.

Love the extra effects on the pictures

Beast of the Wild

I was afraid we'd see a repeat of Mario/Seph 2005 here but nope!

Witcher 3 is a monster.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6168-best-game-ever-day-35-division-vi-final-zelda-a-link-to-the

As a refresher.

Uh....what does Breath of the Wild need for it to be comparable to OoT?

For the sake of argument let's assume the SFF in BotW/MM and LttP/OoT are equal.

ME2 is static

davidponte posted...

Witcher 3 is a monster.

On that note, Skyrim and Persona 5 now look like utter beasts themselves. Dark Souls too.

Breath of the Wild always seemed like the kinda monster game that could compete with OoT. Its Zelda reinvented for the modern age and pretty much universally loved.

(insert my "turns out when you change the predictable formula after several years, people love getting something different" post here again)

So has the entire Zelda series apart from BotW fallen off, or am I just being the most obnoxious troll in the topic rn?

Praise Geraldo