Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1360

Yeah Witcher's rolling off with this and I can't believe it isn't going to rock the night vote. Fun contest but looks like the drama's done now.

LusterSoldier posted...

I doubt it. This might get to 53%, but I think 55% is out of reach.

We're getting to 53 before the first hour is over

To be fair Undertale is behind three layers of SFF.

Also I am on the Second Chamce leaderboard, nice. Though with a different name because I was dum when they brought in the account name system back in the day. Whoops.

I'll miss the this contest's board votes. You never knew what you were gonna get.

55-45 does indicate no SFF at play since Skyrim beat Persona 5 with like 52% or something in that recent "favorite 5 game" poll. so it all lines up.

which is weird because Witcher has managed to SFF games that are less similar to it than Skyrim...unless ...maybe it didn't?

in which case ACOdyssey is turbofodder, ME3 is very weak and GoW is just a midcarder. does all that sound plausible?

Witcher just threw the bat at Skyrim. Hard-hitting update.

It's weird because I want Witcher to win, but I also want unexpected results to happen. So it had better beat Zelda after this.

LamarJackson posted...

still hilarious how much this fell

I mean that's probably better than what it could do in 2015 without rallies.

LusterSoldier posted...

I doubt it. This might get to 53%, but I think 55% is out of reach.

This aged poorly

Yeah, seems the underdog has been getting the board vote (Portal 2/Persona 5, Persona 5/Witcher 3, Skyrim/Dark Souls, etc).

I'm guessing Witcher 3 might win the board vote for the first time all contest tomorrow against BotW.

charmander6000 posted...

Skyrim holding up well.

Are people still bracket voting?

Apparently yes. >_>

And if there's no Western SFF here, then LOL God of War

Okay I take it back 55 might be a low estimate

squexa posted...

And if there's no Western SFF here, then LOL God of War

Maybe Skyrim is just respected enough that it can resist it, but God of War and everything else isn't?

squexa posted...

And if there's no Western SFF here, then LOL God of War

God of War still holds up well or were people expecting it to be near Skyrim/Dark Souls/Persona 5 tier?

I know we're still in the Power Hour, but we don't usually see 1+% shifts in minutes 0:25-0:35.

Sharinnegan posted...

in which case ACOdyssey is turbofodder, ME3 is very weak and GoW is just a midcarder. does all that sound plausible?

It's very plausible, but it would mean New Vegas is pretty bad.

charmander6000 posted...

I mean that's probably better than what it could do in 2015 without rallies.

What would Witcher have to do on BotW to have ME3 get close to a double on Undertale in the unadjusted stats? Would be funny if the game never gained any strength whatsoever despite how it exploded everywhere onto the internet after the rally.

charmander6000 posted...

God of War still holds up well or were people expecting it to be near Skyrim/Dark Souls/Persona 5 tier?

fairly close to them, yes.

at least for me.

Based on these numbers BoTW is going to absolutely wreck witcher tomorrow. Short of a 5000+ vote rally that is.
Also this just makes it even more clear that at best Witcher 3 = Smash Ultimate, instead of W3 clearly being the 2nd best game in the bracket.

Undertale is behind BotW>SSBU, SSBU>SMO, and SMO>SK. It obviously gained a ton of strength.

Smash ultimate hasn't looked great at all. i'm not sure it even beats Persona 5 / Dark Souls

Kotetsu534 posted...

Yeah Witcher's rolling off with this and I can't believe it isn't going to rock the night vote. Fun contest but looks like the drama's done now.

There really wasn't too much drama this contest, at least compared to previous ones.

Oh well. Contest's over folks...

TooTooP3 posted...

There really wasn't too much drama this contest, at least compared to previous ones.

Honestly, it felt like there was way more drama this time around in P4G's matches than all of 2018.

So RE7 has to be the underseed of the contest, yeah?

FFDragon posted...

So RE7 has to be the underseed of the contest, yeah?

Yeah. I think that's been very clear for a while now.

I think 55-56% should be the max for Witcher 3 here.

charmander6000 posted...

God of War still holds up well or were people expecting it to be near Skyrim/Dark Souls/Persona 5 tier?

God of War had that GotY poll where it went 54-46 with Smash Ultimate, so I expected more from it pre-contest.

FFDragon posted...

So RE7 has to be the underseed of the contest, yeah?

Yes, it was always the best 16 seed of the contest. That seemed clear from the beginning and it didn't disappoint.

5 minute X-Stats:

Lower Half

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 50.00%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim – 48.65%
Dark Souls – 46.04%
Persona 5 – 43.47%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 39.40%
Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Edition – 39.10%
The Last of Us – 38.39%
Mario Kart 8 – 38.04%
NieR: Automata – 37.64%
Portal 2 – 36.98%
God of War – 35.52%
Red Dead Redemption 2 – 34.40%
Batman: Arkham City – 34.38%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain – 33.80%
Fallout: New Vegas – 31.78%
Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End – 31.3104589%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 – 31.3088048%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn – 30.16%
Dark Souls III – 29.26%
Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 29.17%
Yakuza 0 – 28.91%
Stardew Valley – 28.30%
Diablo III – 28.20%
Sonic Mania – 27.92%
Kingdom Hearts III – 27.84%
BioShock Infinite – 27.62%
Tomb Raider – 25.66%
Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag – 25.16%
Journey – 24.34%
Bayonetta 2 – 23.78%
Divinity: Original Sin II – 23.54%
Sid Meier’s Civilization V – 21.92%
Rayman Legends – 21.91%
Celeste – 21.72%
Mass Effect 3 – 21.60%
Rocket League – 20.87%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA – 20.80%
Dragon Ball FighterZ – 20.18%
Super Meat Boy – 19.63%
Street Fighter V – 19.53%
Heavy Rain – 18.87%
Dead Cells – 18.58%
Nioh – 18.14%
Terraria – 17.86%
Disco Elysium – 17.78%
Dishonored – 17.60%
Zero Escape: Virtue’s Last Reward – 17.48%
Crypt of the NecroDancer – 17.17%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty – 17.01%
Fate/Grand Order – 16.45%
Destiny – 16.32%
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth – 15.77%
Hotline Miami – 15.67%
Subnautica – 15.57%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft – 14.49%
Night in the Woods – 14.11%
Crusader Kings II – 13.94%
Slay the Spire – 13.65%
The Stanley Parable – 13.09%
The Witness – 13.07%
Dying Light – 12.80%
Slay the Spire – 12.19%
The Talos Principle – 10.71%
Return of the Obra Dinn – 10.05%

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Honestly, it felt like there was way more drama this time around in P4G's matches than all of 2018.

Both were pretty tame contest. P4G was the exception to this contest and Zelda was the exception tot he 2018. Both were fun, but nothing too crazy.

TooTooP3 posted...

Yes, it was always the best 16 seed of the contest. That seemed clear from the beginning and it didn't disappoint.

If RE7 just fell short of the contest entirely, I'm not even sure what would be the discussion here for most underseeded.

The further Unders***e gets buried the better

if witcher gets rallied hindreds of thousands of votes then lets put undertale below Subnautica

This was fun, even if it was a reminder to how small these contest are now.

Hopefully we don't have to wait an eternity for another character battle.

MK8 probably is the only other truly underseeded if you take RE7 out.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

If RE7 just fell short of the contest entirely, I'm not even sure what would be the discussion here for most underseeded.

You could make an argument for Bayonetta 2 or Xenoblade Chronicles 2, but that's about it. Oh, and MK8, of course.

also the most surprising revelation of this contest is how much MGSV and Diablo 3 didn't suck

I never thought Witcher 3 was going to SFF Skyrim super hard. Went with 54 in my second chance bracket. The thing is Skyrim is also on the top tier of WRPGs right up there with Witcher 3. So that FF can certainly still exist.

squexa posted...

God of War had that GotY poll where it went 54-46 with Smash Ultimate, so I expected more from it pre-contest.

that was GOTY poll where at the time gow was the hottest thing and hugely respected

i said this before but smash was going off pure fanboy hype. It took time for people to appreciate that game. Had that been a persona 5 or witcher 3 in GOTY poll smash would have lost comfortably.

Trend chart:

Time | BOTW | Smash | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 59.12% | 40.88% | 521 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 64.35% | 35.65% | 3526 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 66.62% | 33.38% | 8748 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 68.36% | 31.64% | 3496 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 71.21% | 28.79% | 5838 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 67.71% | 32.29% | 5256 | (17:00-24:00)

Whew, only having one chart to do is nice!

Witcher 3 is currently 1% ahead of where it was against Persona

this could still end up fairly ugly for Skyrim.

That wasn't very nice Geralt, toying with your prey like that...

LeonhartFour posted...

Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End – 31.3104589%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 – 31.3088048%

I picked both of these to win 2 matches. If only they'd faced off in round 1.

Currently Witcher 3 gets 67.48% on MGS5.

Skyrim (2015g) VS Metal Gear Solid 5 (2015g)

Skyrim has a strength of 34.93.
Metal Gear Solid 5 has a strength of 22.40.

Skyrim wins with 67.94% of the vote!
A win of 21,837 with 60,875 total votes cast.

At the end of it all, WRPGs might not be any better off than they were in 2015.

Welp. Witcher has this.

Witcher 3 is half a percent higher than it was against P5 last round, but it also had a rally to contend with, so I'm not sure it gets above what it got on P5, at the very least.

P5 taking the #5 spot in the top 5 this contest would be amazing

Play games from this decade.

Especially the good ones.