Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358

This probably as good as XBC gets, I don't think Smash is sucking here

ME2 and Xenoblade cratered at the exact same time. That was funny.

Zelda looking really off here.

Hey guys you know what game hasn't looked off? The Witcher

its not looking off. it'll probably rise a bit still and this matches up with 70% on DQXI

CaptainOfCrush posted...

You've clearly made some great picks along the way, congrats! What's in your bracket from here on out? I'm curious if I have any chance of catching you (I'm sure the other Board 8ers right behind you are wondering as well).

breath of the wild
super smash bros. ultimate
the witcher 3
skyrim

breath of the wild
skyrim

breath of the wild

thanks for the congrats! and i did listen to the show to get advice for my bracket so thanks for that as well!

edit: oh whoops, didn't need to list that first bunch of games obviously.

Neat, my Xenoblade pic was used. Unfortunately Shulk's a bit outgunned against Everyone is Here, but what can you do.

davidponte posted...

Hey guys you know what game hasn't looked off? The Witcher

It looked mortal enough against Mario Galaxy 2 that there's no way it'd actually challenge Zelda without rallies. I'm not even sure it can beat Mario Odyssey with its GameFAQs strength alone.

Isn't that ME2 pic ME3's boxart



That can't be helping

How the hell Zelda is looking off when its beating 1st seed who beat RE2 which beats Bloodborne? Zelda getting 67% is so high its guaranteed no upset is going to happen at this point.

Mr Lasastryke posted...

thanks for the congrats! and i did listen to the show to get advice for my bracket so thanks for that as well!

Dude, that's awesome! Thanks for listening.

We have identical brackets from here on out, so my ceiling is second place behind you (though I think some combination of Witcher/Dark Souls will doom us soon).

@CaptainOfCrush What show he is talking about?

Breath of the Wild's current result puts it in the Top 5 of the 2015 Xstats. It's doing fine.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Dude, that's awesome! Thanks for listening.

We have identical brackets from here on out, so my ceiling is second place behind you (though I think some combination of Witcher/Dark Souls will doom us soon).

yeah, i'm the most worried about the witcher 3 - skyrim match.

though maybe it's better if i don't win - i'd rather not become the new palmer >_>;

squexa posted...

Zelda looking really off here.

This is its best result so far. DQXI is looking surprisingly really strong so far.

Mr Lasastryke posted...

yeah, i'm the most worried about the witcher 3 - skyrim match.

though maybe it's better if i don't win - i'd rather not become the new palmer >_>;

you can’t be palmer. You aren’t eligible for prizes in any case.

It's still a real shame the way Palmer was treated around here. Guy made an all-time bracket and we f***ing laughed at him.

ShortReplies posted...

@CaptainOfCrush What show he is talking about?

There's a contest podcast during each contest season for the past decade. Here's the most recent episode:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78670085

redrocket posted...

you can’t be palmer. You aren’t eligible for prizes in any case.

what happened to palmer?

KamikazePotato posted...

Breath of the Wild's current result puts it in the Top 5 of the 2015 Xstats. It's doing fine.

i'm curious on what a proper list would really look like.

Chrono Trigger/OoT
FF7
BOTW?

Yes, we must always remember to change to Prize Bracket.

(unless of course, you legitimately aren't eligible)

KamikazePotato posted...

Breath of the Wild's current result puts it in the Top 5 of the 2015 Xstats. It's doing fine.

Which xstat are you using? I'm not even sure if BotW is stronger than MM based on current results and I suspect BotW's percentage might keep falling.

Why is Fun entry the default option anyway? I made the same mistake in 2011, tbh.

Edit: Or 2013, maybe. I finished in prize position in the Battle Contest in 2011, so that might not have been it.

HeroicSpiderPig posted...

Why is Fun entry the default option anyway? I made the same mistake in 2011, tbh.

To make it easier on people like Luster who want to submit a bracket with each of their 50+ alts.

squexa posted...

Which xstat are you using? I'm not even sure if BotW is stronger than MM based on current results and I suspect BotW's percentage might keep falling.

BotW is easily stronger than MM. Only OoT and ALTTP are stronger

Hey cool I have two separate windows with no repeated match pics.

redrocket posted...

To make it easier on people like Luster who want to submit a bracket with each of their 50+ alts.

Wasn't it close to 250 when the Lusterboard got cleaned up in GotD 2010?

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Wasn't it close to 250 when the Lusterboard got cleaned up in GotD 2010?

lol, probably

Imagine how different the vibe will be in this topic 24 hours from now

squexa posted...

Which xstat are you using? I'm not even sure if BotW is stronger than MM based on current results and I suspect BotW's percentage might keep falling.

Through FE Awakening, which is the most reasonably static entry from Division 2 we have to go off of (ME2's 2015 xstat value is sketchy as heck). Without rallies, the results are something like:

Bloodborne > FEA, 55-45
RE2 > Bloodborne, 52-48
Mass Effect 2 > RE2, 52-48

So ME2 gets about 41.5% on Awakening. As of now, that puts Breath of the Wild at around the level of Mario 3, or #7 on the 2015 stats.

Yeah I got a prize bracket for my main entry but forgot to switch it on for my second chance entry. Really wish prize-entry would just be the default option.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

It's still a real shame the way Palmer was treated around here. Guy made an all-time bracket and we f***ing laughed at him.

There's a contest podcast during each contest season for the past decade. Here's the most recent episode:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78670085

Damn, thats 2.5 hours. I wish i had the time to listen to it, but i dont.

Hey, I actually managed to somehow crawl onto the leaderboard in spite of all the dumb picks littering my early bracket. Just like in CBX, actually.

...At least this time, I'll be able to stay up there for longer than a day.

KamikazePotato posted...

Through FE Awakening, which is the most reasonably static entry from Division 2 we have to go off of (ME2's 2015 xstat value is sketchy as heck). Without rallies, the results are something like:

Bloodborne > FEA, 55-45
RE2 > Bloodborne, 52-48
Mass Effect 2 > RE2, 52-48

So ME2 gets about 41.5% on Awakening. As of now, that puts Breath of the Wild at around the level of Mario 3, or #7 on the 2015 stats.

This seems pretty reasonable to me!

What do you think BOTW vs Smash will look like? I have BOTW winning with such an absurdly high margin I must have had a brain fart when I submitted it 😣

13 users fell off the Top 50. Surskit, Board8_BOP, eaglesarebeasts, squexa, Zylothewolf, WhiteLens, ZenithianLegend, creativename, LastHeroDrew, PreseaCombatir, VeryInsane, BigK1016 and pirate109 got at least one match wrong.

9 users scored half points but survived. Former second place JONALEON1, former third place Advokaiser, DarthStarkiller, Heroic_UB_40, Joelypoely, ALAKA, OrangeCrush980, Ultima_X and darklight2222 took an 8 point hit but survived.

1 person scored 0 points but is still alive. Former first place SpikeDragon's bracket up to now was strong enough to survive missing the full 16 points.

18 users fell off the Second Chance Top 50. Former third place mnkboy907, Jerom88, Lolo_Guru, MeteorExF, triton6783, AFreeby, GranzonEx, Tabbertim, kateee, TallWhiteNinja, Shlork, DoctorBIind, ninkendo, TheCobaltSalmon, Herbette, GildedFool, creativename and KommunistKoala weren't able to keep their momentum going.

*chef's kiss*

if only there was an account named Soul Dew to round it out.

XIII_rocks posted...

*chef's kiss*

Yeah, I noticed that. Top quality there!

iGenesis posted...

What do you think BOTW vs Smash will look like? I have BOTW winning with such an absurdly high margin I must have had a brain fart when I submitted it 😣

Using 2017 GotY polls, Smash would probably get around 35-37% if you assume equal levels of SFFing done to both Odyssey and SSBU.

Man imagine Persona 4 was in this match against smash with its minor rallies. It would make smash look like utter s***e.

this result makes LBW look trash

i wonder if there's actually some reverse SFF going on

we know from previous matches that Persona 5 is around 10% ahead of P4. so this performance is currently putting Smash about exactly on par with it. i think a lot of us expected smash to be the number 2 game in the bracket.

Not to take accolades away from the multiple Stats Topic users here currently tearing up the leaderboard, but I also have to say that anusblaster and COVID-19 have been up there on the leaderboard forever. Real troopers right there.

Kinglicious posted...

if only there was an account named Soul Dew to round it out.

If they both get overtaken tomorrow, you could say there's been a Luster Purge

KamikazePotato posted...

Through FE Awakening, which is the most reasonably static entry from Division 2 we have to go off of (ME2's 2015 xstat value is sketchy as heck). Without rallies, the results are something like:

Bloodborne > FEA, 55-45
RE2 > Bloodborne, 52-48
Mass Effect 2 > RE2, 52-48

So ME2 gets about 41.5% on Awakening. As of now, that puts Breath of the Wild at around the level of Mario 3, or #7 on the 2015 stats.

This sounds mostly reasonable although FE Awakening's kinda sketchy too since adjusting for two rallies isn't always easy.

Alternatively, 2015 MGS3 got 60.6% on ME2 in 2015 and we know MGS3 got 42.3% on MM in 2010 so MM should get 66.7% on ME2. That said, there might be a bandwagon in MM's favor in 2010, so maybe it's overinflated but I do feel that 2015 MM justified 2010 MM's strength.

XIII_rocks posted...

*chef's kiss*

Those are 2 of my accounts on the Second Chance leaderboard. I have a few other Pokemon usernames on the leaderboard, but they all have unique entries, so they can't all stay on the leaderboard before the contest ends.

Wait a second.

49 _SecretSquirrel 224

How the hell did this happen? Were there really that many Last of Us and Heart Gold backers to let me in after RE2 fell short?

Sharinnegan posted...

i wonder if there's actually some reverse SFF going on

we know from previous matches that Persona 5 is around 10% ahead of P4. so this performance is currently putting Smash about exactly on par with it. i think a lot of us expected smash to be the number 2 game in the bracket.

not anymore. Id take witcher to beat it. Smash doesnt have that respect factor. Its just pure nintendo fanboy type game.

Xenoblade over 40%, keeping things respectable!

has any game ever scored over 70% in a quarterfinal?