Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358

LOLIAmAnAlt posted...

I'm in the top 64 of the second chance bracket.
Something is wrong.

me too, check me out!

LOLIAmAnAlt posted...

I'm in the top 64 of the second chance bracket.
Something is wrong.

I'm currently 2nd. Something is very wrong there.

I am currently on track to only score 90 today (thanks to TLOU) so I could be off the leader board completely after today (I'm currently 8 pts ahead of 50th). More likely that happens tomorrow though, where I'll be very happy with a 90 - I am expecting mid 80's at best tomorrow.

is it okay to laugh at the people who actually picked Pokemon to beat Skyrim yet

only if the same goes for last of us

LeonhartFour posted...

is it okay to laugh at the people who actually picked Pokemon to beat Skyrim yet

I mean, they already laughed at us that had NieR beating Pokemon, so why not?

transience posted...

only if the same goes for last of us

I mean GoW > Witcher 3 somehow ends up being the worse pick but sure!

no one could have seen those TLOU2 leaks coming but seeing Witcher 3 being an absolute beast was definitely something we all openly discussed

also I'm thinking TLOU at least gets over 40% by the end of this so it'll look slightly less embarrassing

all i want out of this fourpack is for Nier > TLOU to be a thing.

Yeah it looks like Skyrim is going to do better on Pokemon than Dark Souls will on Last of Us.

If I can't get 55 for my Second Chance, then give me MK8 > Pokemon. Might as well embarrass the game that eliminated me from the Guru in the process.

HaRRicH posted...

Hey Leon -- assuming TLoU = LoZ:LBW (and assuming no SFF in SSBU > LoZ:LBW), where do we land stat-wise?

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 50.00%
Dark Souls - 46.01%
Super Mario Odyssey – 44.06%
Marvel’s Spider-Man – 36.39%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds – 35.94%
The Last of Us - 35.94%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 33.78%
Batman: Arkham City - 32.17%
Minecraft – 30.82%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 29.31%
Yakuza 0 - 28.89%
Diablo III - 26.39%
Bayonetta – 26.24%
BioShock Infinite - 25.86%
Devil May Cry 5 – 25.28%
Shovel Knight – 23.96%
Octopath Traveler – 23.78%
Undertale – 22.22%
Dead Space 2 – 21.88%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze – 21.54%
Rocket League - 20.85%
Dragon Ball FighterZ - 20.16%
Dead Cells - 18.57%
Dragon’s Dogma – 17.06%
Tekken 7 – 17.02%
Terraria - 16.72%
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 16.36%
Hotline Miami - 15.65%
Dota 2 – 14.97%
The Witness - 13.06%
Crusader Kings II - 13.05%
Mortal Kombat 11 – 12.36%

Argh. Early on I was hoping Dark Souls would show it had a shot against Skyrim, but nope! Looks like my high 59% prediction for Skyrim is going to be my only accurate prediction so far in Second Chance! What's sad is that my actual bracket is more accurate than my second chance bracket as far as picking the correct winner.... two winners better so far, in fact. Granted, I haven't been paying attention to analysis of any kind this entire contest....

Wanglicious posted...

all i want out of this fourpack is for Nier > TLOU to be a thing.

Currently Skyrim doesn't even have to win for that to happen. It just needs 48.70% on Dark Souls.

Of course, that will shift if Skyrim keeps going up and Dark Souls keeps going down.

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. God of War
Registered Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 5884 (65.14%)
God of War - 3149 (34.86%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 5328 (63.07%)
God of War - 3120 (36.93%)

Persona 5 vs. Portal 2
Registered Vote Result:
Persona 5 - 5159 (57.11%)
Portal 2 - 3874 (42.89%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Persona 5 - 4921 (58.24%)
Portal 2 - 3528 (41.76%)

Portal 2 did about 1% better with registered users, but you can blame that on the Persona 5 rally. Persona 5 did better with registered users in round 1 and 2, but that was not the case here. I estimated the rally brought in around 300 to 500 votes based on the percentage of registered users in these matches. That ends up being a fairly small rally that won't save Persona 5 against The Witcher 3 if its natural strength is well below The Witcher 3. The Persona fanbase is going to have to step up their rallying efforts even more just to compete against The Witcher 3.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

KamikazePotato posted...

Yeah it looks like Skyrim is going to do better on Pokemon than Dark Souls will on Last of Us.

Pokemon should easily beat an anti-voted Last of Us, so much for the potential of a Souls upset next round.

Skyrim is just trying to play everyone before it falls from grace next round.

i think Dark Souls still goes into the next round as a slight favorite.

This match to me is more HGSS being exposed than Skyrim being super legit. That 72% on Rayman is just awful.

Sharinnegan posted...

i think Dark Souls still goes into the next round as a slight favorite.

based on what?

Skyrim vs Witcher 3 still looks like a 50-50 to me.

Witcher 3 had an easier match against another western game. Skyrim is getting 58% against a popular Nintendo game.

well, for one, i dont believe the percentages will flip to Skyrim beating pokemon by more than DS is beating last of us. if it does then i change my mind.

and while i would favor Pokemon, i'm not 100% sure it beats (even anti voted) TLoU directly. so any difference in their victories in my eyes favors Dark Souls.

I think it's funny how people are talking down this Souls performance. Sure, there's reason to doubt it, but I get a sense of backwards logic.

"This performance by Dark Souls is so good that TLoU must be suffering backlash so therefore this performance is actually bad because Dark Souls should be beating it by more"

I don't think anyone is saying this performance is bad

there's just reason to believe it caught TLOU at the absolute right time and it wouldn't have done this a week ago

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

I think it's funny how people are talking down this Souls performance. Sure, there's reason to doubt it, but I get a sense of backwards logic.

"This performance by Dark Souls is so good that TLoU must be suffering backlash so therefore this performance is actually bad because Dark Souls should be beating it by more"

It can be both. Dark Souls is a monster, and TLOU got f***ed by that leak.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

I think it's funny how people are talking down this Souls performance. Sure, there's reason to doubt it, but I get a sense of backwards logic.

"This performance by Dark Souls is so good that TLoU must be suffering backlash so therefore this performance is actually bad because Dark Souls should be beating it by more"

Already way ahead of you (from the crew thread hours before the match)

MechanicalWall posted...

Meanwhile Dark Souls can trash Last of Us and it might not mean anything, or it can do as expected based on the stats and people will say that's bad because they expect TLOU to have taken a massive hit.

squexa posted...

This match to me is more HGSS being exposed than Skyrim being super legit

I'm also pretty much here

I think Pokemon and Nier's R2 performances exposed them both as not being all that. Hollow Knight suddenly getting super exposed by the BotW/DQXI match added fuel to this, because among the indies I personally think Celeste is probably much worse than HK is.

MechanicalWall posted...

I'm also pretty much here

I think Pokemon and Nier's R2 performances exposed them both as not being all that. Hollow Knight suddenly getting super exposed by the BotW/DQXI match added fuel to this, because among the indies I personally think Celeste is probably much worse than HK is.

Would you have picked Last of Us to beat Pokemon?

Bear in mind Skyrim is very close to 60% now.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Would you have picked Last of Us to beat Pokemon?

Without the leak or any funny business, I would take TLoU to win. HGSS might be the strongest modern Pokemon game but that's not all that strong.

I would've taken TLOU > HGSS. Though to be fair I took TLOU over Dark Souls...

skyrim vs dark souls is still a complete toss up.

SuperNiceDog posted...

skyrim vs dark souls is still a complete toss up.

Indeed. All I know for sure is Dark Souls will score the first 1838 votes.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Would you have picked Last of Us to beat Pokemon?

Bear in mind Skyrim is very close to 60% now.

If I'm being honest, I have no idea what I would have picked precontest before all these leak shenanigans.

I didn't really make that post in relation to Dark Souls vs Skyrim though. That match is the only one left that I find interesting and debatable.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Would you have picked Last of Us to beat Pokemon?

Bear in mind Skyrim is very close to 60% now.

Yes. GameFAQs sees HGSS as more of a Gen 4 game than a Gen 2 game imo.

Wow so uh turns out HGSS is almost equal to Mario Kart 8. I had an awful lot of faith in NieR: Automata and absolutely none in Mario Kart 8 pre-contest and those two were my biggest blunders in this contest 😩

Also I feel guilt for not having more faith than I should in my beloved Dark Souls. I did pick it to get to the last 8 but did not fathom it even having a shot against Skyrim. If my bracket falls for that reason then I’ll gladly accept it for not trusting one of my favorite games of all time as much as I should have.

This contest though for me is legendary for the fact that Dark Souls and Xenoblade Chronicles looked like absolute beasts that they deserve to be regardless of the results next round.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Indeed. All I know for sure is Dark Souls will score the first 1838 votes.

Dark Souls has a board vote that's every bit as garbage as Skyrim's. It was under 55% at the freeze today.

It had actually recovered to 57.5% by the freeze but around the 2-3 minute mark it was under 53%.

Well, it jumped up to 62-63% pretty shortly thereafter before coming back to earth. It basically did the same thing against MGSV. It starts slow, beasts the rest of the hour, and then tapers off.

What happened to Bayonetta 2? It looks pretty bad now.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

What happened to Bayonetta 2? It looks pretty bad now.

It would be far from the first game to have vaguely passable strength when it is brand new only to fall off a cliff once it's no longer very very new.

Like God of War, quite frankly.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

What happened to Bayonetta 2? It looks pretty bad now.

The Platinum SFF theory sounds plausible

I'd take HGSS>TLOU any day of the week. It brings me no joy to say this b/c I have Dark Souls upsetting Skyrim/Witcher in both of my brackets

LeonhartFour posted...

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 50.00%
Dark Souls - 46.01%
Super Mario Odyssey – 44.06%
Marvel’s Spider-Man – 36.39%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds – 35.94%
The Last of Us - 35.94%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 33.78%
Batman: Arkham City - 32.17%
Minecraft – 30.82%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 29.31%
Yakuza 0 - 28.89%
Diablo III - 26.39%
Bayonetta – 26.24%
BioShock Infinite - 25.86%
Devil May Cry 5 – 25.28%
Shovel Knight – 23.96%
Octopath Traveler – 23.78%
Undertale – 22.22%
Dead Space 2 – 21.88%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze – 21.54%
Rocket League - 20.85%
Dragon Ball FighterZ - 20.16%
Dead Cells - 18.57%
Dragon’s Dogma – 17.06%
Tekken 7 – 17.02%
Terraria - 16.72%
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 16.36%
Hotline Miami - 15.65%
Dota 2 – 14.97%
The Witness - 13.06%
Crusader Kings II - 13.05%
Mortal Kombat 11 – 12.36%

Thank you. It's easy to make the Spiderman/Batman comparison from here,,,so I will If you think they're close to equal, one can compensate for this gap between them by adjusting LoZ:LBW up for possible SFF from SSBU...but then, the higher you adjust LoZ:LBW, the closer DS gets to SSBU. It's already leading SMO according to this, though SMO could be adjusted upward too.

This assumes LoZ:LBW and TLoU are still basically equal from 2013 though, which may not be the case. LoZ's stock and Nintendo's stock have risen in recent years while TLoU2 is facing some major controversy at this very moment.

If that's accurate it also makes DBZF the strongest non-Smash fighting game (unless SFV ends up having the higher x-stat) on the site, which further proves the point that the only way to get this site to gaf about a fighting game is to paint their favorite characters on it (MvC2 also looking ok in GotD1 backs this up even further)

That's not entirely fair since SF5 isn't considered a good entry in the Street Fighter series. It has reason to be weak even beyond just being a fighting game.

hey you wanna know what fighting game might've actually done alright in this bracket, Marvel vs. Capcom 3

it is still nonsense to me Street Fighter 5 is in this bracket and that isn't

Team Rocket Elite posted...

What happened to Bayonetta 2? It looks pretty bad now.

Platinum perfected the booty-perv camera angle and it just happened to draw that exact opponent.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Honestly, I applaud these attempts to broaden the appeal of gaming. This may sound crazy at first and may open up a pandora's box of discussion, but I don't think every video game needs to be "traditionally fun" so long as it is engaging. The developers who go down that route open themselves up to a lot of criticism though, as there is that segment of gaming fans who do believe that fun (and fluid, intuitive gameplay) is king.

This is also why Nintendo has never really faced this type of criticism - their games are the epitome of fun.

And this is why I maintain that MGS3 is the worst MGS, despite having the best story

Are there any decent comparisons to be made from setting Splatoon 1 = Splatoon 2? I know Xenoblade is a bit of an SFF match, but at least Splatoon 1 got MGS1, which is about as pure of a value you get from it.

KamikazePotato posted...

Death Stranding probably has a much better reception if Kojima had managed expectations of it better. You can't release an AAA game wildly different from every other AAA game out there without carefully and clearly explaining your vision behind the game, but the marketing/buildup for the game relied largely on obfuscating what exactly the game was.

What do you expect from the guy behind MGS2?

Wokw up checked the results. DS so strong.