Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1356

This contest is a ploy to get people to buy Xenoblade remastered later this month

I guess it was that rally. Persona has fallen off now

lordjers posted...

Eh I'd take MK11 over Tk7 anyday 1vs1.

Eh, Tekken has kinda overtaken SF as the FGC’s favorite fighter scene right now, the Pakistan invasion last year was really cool

UltimaterializerX posted...

How does Europe like Persona compared to Xenoblade?

In the UK and Ireland Xenoblade is far above Persona, and most non-FF JRPGs. On the continent it’s harder to say, France and Spain go mad for JRPGs in general so it may be closer.

Anecdotally I know lots of Xenoblade fans and 0 Persona fans.

There's no way SSBU actually reaches 59.79%, right?

Team Rocket Elite posted...

There's no way SSBU actually reaches 59.79%, right?

Hopefully it does!

Team Rocket Elite posted...

There's no way SSBU actually reaches 59.79%, right?

Europe is going to prevent that from happening, since Smash is very weak in Europe. One of the few times Mario will have a good night vote.

Getting ridiculous at this point that we still can't check our 2nd chance picks

From SBAllen's topic it seems like there was a delay on getting everything ready:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78660983

The ability to see your entry is probably part of that.

Bad result from Xenoblade tonight. This kind of murders its eventual X-stat rankings, and getting SFFd into the dirt by Ultimate next round won't help.

Persona 4 is going to die the way it lived, staying within striking distance but never actually striking

We need to land an All-Out Attack

KamikazePotato posted...

Bad result from Xenoblade tonight. This kind of murders its eventual X-stat rankings, and getting SFFd into the dirt by Ultimate next round won't help.

Poor Three Houses is going to look like s*** getting the double SFF hammer.

KamikazePotato posted...

getting SFFd into the dirt by Ultimate next round won't help.

The future we see is not set in stone.

All I wanted was Shulk vs. Shulk next round and looks like I may get it

KamikazePotato posted...

Bad result from Xenoblade tonight. This kind of murders its eventual X-stat rankings, and getting SFFd into the dirt by Ultimate next round won't help.

But hey this kinda justifies your faith in GTAV!

KamikazePotato posted...

Bad result from Xenoblade tonight. This kind of murders its eventual X-stat rankings, and getting SFFd into the dirt by Ultimate next round won't help.

How can its X-stat ranking get murdered by anything other than a bad loss?

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

How can its X-stat ranking get murdered by anything other than a bad loss?

Because SFF isn't factored into the X-stats when possible. The Ultimate match is going to be completely ignored. We're going to have to go mostly off of Persona 4 and Red Dead Redemption, and neither game is very strong.

Leonhart4 posted...

But hey this kinda justifies your faith in GTAV!

GTA getting close enough to win this division so it can make people pick it in a later debatable match and get burned again. It's the series' MO!

Xenoblade's result against SSBU is unusable since it's a blatant SFF match. So Xenoblade will be based off the matches it won and it's best wins look like they were also SFF matches over Splatoon (which probably wasn't a good choice to adjust off to begin with) and Three Houses. Overwatch is bad as well. That leaves this result.

Not that any of this matters since Xenoblade will be different after the Switch release anyways.

KamikazePotato posted...

Because SFF isn't factored into the X-stats when possible. The Ultimate match is going to be completely ignored. We're going to have to go mostly off of Persona 4 and Red Dead Redemption, and neither game is very strong.

Ah, adjusted stats. Gotcha.

I still think Xenoblade comes out of this looking pretty good and noticeably better than 2015.

I just feel like there were reasons to cast doubt on how good its first three performances actually were.

Leonhart4 posted...

I just feel like there were reasons to cast doubt on how good its first three performances actually were.

Well yes, that's why I was hoping it would justify at least some of those performances! It's stronger than 2015 but not by a lot. 55% on Persona 4 would've done a lot to legitimize itself.

The best path for Xenoblade's X-stat value is that Portal 2 does really good against P5 and P5 does really good against Skyrim, because Red Dead Redemption 2 is going to be about equal to RDR1. I have adjusted my voting plans accordingly.

Compared to 2015 this is a good result for Xenoblade. But I wanted to be greedy and have Xenoblade be even stronger.

Xenoblade won its division without being seriously threatened (barring more Persona rallies). It will still emerge as one of the stars of the contest despite the two layers of inevitable SFF. Hell, if it can cling to 40% next round, it'll wind up pretty close to Odyssey in the stats - which XC fan won't be happy with that?

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age
Registered Vote Result:
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 6270 (70.66%)
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 2604 (29.34%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 5162 (69.18%)
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 2300 (30.82%)

Mass Effect 2 vs. Resident Evil 2
Registered Vote Result:
Mass Effect 2 - 4593 (51.71%)
Resident Evil 2 - 4290 (48.29%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Mass Effect 2 - 4050 (54.27%)
Resident Evil 2 - 3412 (45.73%)

Breath of the Wild did about 1.5% better with registered users, although Dragon Quest has also been pretty good with registered users in earlier rounds.

Resident Evil 2 did about 2.5% better with registered users, which makes it very unlikely the RE2 rally on Reddit had any noticeable impact on this match. ME2 did better with registered users against RE7, but RE2 ended up with the registered user advantage here. It could be that a game like RE2 was better equipped to get a registered user advantage since this site likes nostalgia and RE2 is a remake of a game that falls into the prime "nostalgia zone" time period for this site.

The percentage of registered users was higher than usual for a match that took place after round 1, with roughly 54.33% registered users as a whole for these 2 matches. That was probably to be expected with this being the first day of matches after returning from the 6 day break, which was going to hurt anonymous users more than registered users.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

Four cuts in a row keep whittling away P4!

LeonhartFour posted...

Mortal Kombat isn't popular beyond the first three

False.

How do past trends suggest P4G/Xenoblade will go? Gonna be a bit weird to see them side-by-side since P4G had two Rockstar games to compare against (RDR1/GTA5) and Xenoblade had two Nintendo games to compare against (Splatoon 2/FE:3H).

Two things:

1._The pics for P4G and Xenoblade look even BETTER in mobile, since the close-up to the characters make it look like a direct "come at me, bro!" fighting stance for both protagonists.

2._Is there a Persona rally?

P4 and Xenoblade both kinda just tend to stay very consistent througout the entire day (using XB vs Overwatch here since the other two could have SFF involved)

theres no real way to know based on trends.

what the f***? is persona getting rallied?

Wow 62% update for Persona 4 there. That was all Xenoblade dropping though, only 51 votes that update.

VeryInsane posted...

Eh, Tekken has kinda overtaken SF as the FGC’s favorite fighter scene right now, the Pakistan invasion last year was really cool

Fighting scene maybe, but MK is by far the bigger name overall in both mainstream and in the gaming conscience. Tekken 3 would be the only game with any sort of strength.

Advokaiser posted...

1._The pics for P4G and Xenoblade look even BETTER in mobile, since the close-up to the characters make it look like a direct "come at me, bro!" fighting stance for both protagonists.

And SMO's is terrible. Just half of Bowser's face and none of Mario's.

Yep, there's definitely a rally involved, just not confirmed from where it comes.

In Bowser's defense, have you SEEN his hair?

Advokaiser posted...

Yep, there's definitely a rally involved, just not confirmed from where it comes.

Rallies don't tend to make one side drop off in votes, though. The big Persona update was the same amount of votes for Persona but Xenoblade dropped 30 votes, and this newest update had Xenoblade go back up to its average vote total and Persona dropped down to 50 votes

Advokaiser posted...

Yep, there's definitely a rally involved, just not confirmed from where it comes.

Someone out there doing gods work

tennisboy213 posted...

And SMO's is terrible. Just half of Bowser's face and none of Mario's.

Yeah, it looks so messed up, lol. But so does Smash, to be fair.

LamarJackson posted...

Rallies don't tend to make one side drop off in votes, though. The big Persona update was the same amount of votes for Persona but Xenoblade dropped 30 votes, and this newest update had Xenoblade go back up to its average vote total and Persona dropped down to 50 votes

Well, that's an interesting insight.

Surely P4G will start to suffer once the night kicks in and Europe wakes up, though. I don't doubt Xenoblade can recover, just by how much is really the question.

can Xenoblade hold on?

Advokaiser posted...

False.

It's absolutely the case here. MK9 would've been a much better choice for this contest but it still would've been weak.

Persona?

Persona

Please go for the kill and don't sputter out like your opponents have

Persona has a sterling record in close matches

If P4G wins this I’ll be so happy because otherwise it’s a terrible result for both matches. SMO too good to lose to Smash

I wish we could see our second chance brackets because I legitimately don’t remember if I took P4 or Xenoblade here.

Persona 4 winning will give us cleaner stats so it's what we should all be rooting for

Well that and it's the best game left

ironically Xenoblade would end up looking better in the end by losing here, as Smash likely SFFs it to oblivion.

Too bad Yuri Lowell isn't here to panic over this result

HUGE xenoblade update. Let's go SHULK!

Leonhart4 posted...

Persona 4 winning will give us cleaner stats so it's what we should all be rooting for

Well that and it's the best game left

I'm rooting for Xenoblade since it's one of those picks that such a small percentage of Gurus predicted in the later rounds, and I'm one of them.