Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1354

Leonhart4 posted...

6 days. The division finals and the quarterfinals are two matches per day. Only the semifinals and finals are one per day.

the quarter finals are 2 matches per day? That sucks. I feel the matchups are too big for two matches. Its only 4 days. Persona/witcher deserves its own day.

shane15 posted...

Pokemon killed all my interest in the contest i'm out.

well it's about ruined my interest too because I felt like I still had a slight shot since I'm ranked in the top 7%, but at this point it's just going to be too many misses because of that game(s).

Advokaiser, you sweet summer child

So it looks like the three ports/remakes in the contest will all be advancing four rounds. All the same, this match DOES show that HGSS is significantly weaker than GSC, since there's no way GSC would struggle with Nier: Automata.

I need to start remembering any Nintendo game is going to be voted on as a whole level above where it would normally be ranked. So it's got to be 2 levels below another game to lose to it. lol.

MechanicalWall posted...

Diablo III > Bioshock Infinite is one of the most shocking developments of this contest for me

I don't care what any of the stats say. That result would not have happened this year.

So I've noticed that until now, none of the games that made a guru upset managed to win the following match. I feel like in previous contests this would happen more often, and it's another reason this bracket is so chalky. We just don't have a single dark horse making a long run in this bracket, like Zelda, Donkey Kong or Alucard did in CBX.

This is guaranteed to happen at least once in Round 4 though, since both Xenoblade and P4G were Round 3 upsets.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

So it looks like the three ports/remakes in the contest will all be advancing four rounds. All the same, this match DOES show that HGSS is significantly weaker than GSC, since there's no way GSC would struggle with Nier: Automata.

obviously not but the whole gsc proxy was a ridiculous notion anyway.

and re2 is more of a complete reimagining for me.

persona 4 is only game thats pretty much an enhanced port of a 2008 game.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I don't care what any of the stats say. That result would not have happened this year.

I mean, the numbers are close enough that Infinite still could have won, but it wouldn't have been a blowout.

 https://imgur.com/2SQS0P5 (click to expand) 

TheCodeisBosco posted...

 https://imgur.com/2SQS0P5 

This killed me lmao

If we're talking Turd of the Round then it HAS to go to Skyrim. It matched Witcher's percentage... on a significantly weaker Mario game, completely and unambiguously voiding any claim that it had to the finals.

Skyrim was projected to get 76% on MK8. Even if you SIGNIFICANTLY boost Mario with a Witcher-like meteoric rise because of the Switch port, this is still a massive underperformance.

No more excuses for this game.

shane15 posted...

Pokemon killed all my interest in the contest i'm out.

I'm still reeling after RDR2's loss, but Pokemon is probably gonna cost me the leaderboard.

It specially hurts cause I've always underestimated the rat and company since the beginning of these contests. Did Red/Blue team win in that other contest? All I remember is that I got those matches wrong.

How do you know that MK 8 isn't strong?

I also wasn't sure when we'd switch to one match per day, but since it ain't happening for a while, it does present an opportunity to discuss how some of these matches may be affected by their daily pairings.

ME2/RE2 - will be affected by Zelda/DQ. Not sure which game comes out ahead here (one can argue for ME2 being an RPG or for RE2 because it's a "classic" series like Zelda), but any sway will probably be negligible and difficult to notice.

Smash/Mario and P4G/XC - As a Nintendo game, Xenoblade probably benefits more for any rallying in the bigger match. Not sure whether Smash or Mario would benefit more from rallying in the RPG match. My intuition says Smash benefits more from the good ol hentai war drum because I have been transformed into a disgusting pervert.

I can't see much worth commenting on in the last four division finals, largely because three of them seem completely decided.

MechanicalWall posted...

If we're talking Turd of the Round then it HAS to go to Skyrim. It matched Witcher's percentage... on a significantly weaker Mario game, completely and unambiguously voiding any claim that it had to the finals.

Skyrim was projected to get 76% on MK8. Even if you SIGNIFICANTLY boost Mario with a Witcher-like meteoric rise because of the Switch port, this is still a massive underperformance.

No more excuses for this game.

This was really just Skyrim doing the same unimpressive thing it did last round. GTAV turning out to be weaker than RDR says "turd" more to me.

lordjers posted...

Did Red/Blue team win in that other contest? All I remember is that I got those matches wrong.

It beat Cloud/Sephiroth on a bonus match with 50.01%.

Safer_777 posted...

How do you know that MK 8 isn't strong?

It was in the last contest

Give it ten whole extra points for the switch port (which is pretty generous considering Switch ports haven't done much for a lot of the field) and this is still a big underperformance

Skyrim is on Switch too! But yeah the problem me and most people did is that we took Skyrim to the finals because the game is strong and it is sure BUT the game is 9 years old by now. Plenty of games like this have come since then. And it isn't like OOT or FF7 which always remain strong. Still if it reaches the semifinal it will be a Top 4 game and I am okay wiht that.

MechanicalWall posted...

Skyrim was projected to get 76% on MK8. Even if you SIGNIFICANTLY boost Mario with a Witcher-like meteoric rise because of the Switch port, this is still a massive underperformance.

To be fair, MK8's x-stat value is based on its match against Super Mario 64 so I imagine there was a lot of SFF.

Still I think you would have to argue that MK8 is at Mario Kart 64 strength to say this wasn't an underperformance.

MechanicalWall posted...

It was in the last contest

Give it ten whole extra points for the switch port (which is pretty generous considering Switch ports haven't done much for a lot of the field) and this is still a big underperformance

You do know what it faced, right? It go SFFed into the ground, so it’s a basically a newcomer here.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

This was really just Skyrim doing the same unimpressive thing it did last round. GTAV turning out to be weaker than RDR says "turd" more to me.

Last round we still had to pretend that flippin Journey was actually way better than it was in 2015

In fact I'm sure that if Witcher didn't also get a Mario game this round we'd still have to pretend that MK8 was 17 whole points better than it was in 2015

Re: Skyrim - this is an underperformance relative to expectations a month ago, but is about what we figured given continually revised expectations.

MechanicalWall posted...

In fact I'm sure that if Witcher didn't also get a Mario game this round we'd still have to pretend that MK8 was 17 whole points better than it was in 2015

Who's doing this chief, some people have been crapping on Skyrim since R1, and almost everyone else jumped on the train after Witcher's match against Mass Effect 3. It was the board favorite to reach the final when the contest started, and it's now an underdog to do that. Isn't that... a somewhat appropriate revision?

I don't remember ppl saying Skyrim was gonna go 60-40 with MK8

Edit: and there were plenty of people trying to pin Skyrim's underperformance on anything other than Skyrim itself. I definitely remember saying last round people were gonna be disappointed based on what the discourse was

If Skyrim and SM64 are constant, then this performance says Mario 64 puts up 69.79% on MK8 compared to the 80.04% it actually got. I dunno, I feel like a massively successful Switch port and filtering out SFF could do that.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

If Skyrim and SM64 are constant

But that's the thing

People keep fudging the numbers based on a constant Skyrim.

I feel the current open world zeitgeist has based some people on this board by. I don't know how many different ways I can say 'Skyrim getting weaker is a natural culmination of the past five years of internet discourse'

MechanicalWall posted...

I don't remember ppl saying Skyrim was gonna go 60-40 with MK8

The Oracle average is just under 61%. The Oracles predicted this match almost perfectly.

We'll see this being reflected if anyone bothers to tally the board's second chance brackets. In our original brackets, 47% of the Gurus took Skyrim to the finals (compared to 30% for Witcher). It's going to be waaaay less than that in our revised brackets, because most of us realize Skyrim isn't as strong as we originally predicted and are revising our expectations.

MechanicalWall posted...

But that's the thing

People keep fudging the numbers based on a constant Skyrim.

I feel the current open world zeitgeist has based some people on this board by. I don't know how many different ways I can say 'Skyrim getting weaker is a natural culmination of the past five years of internet discourse'

And I'm saying that Journey is a clearer indication of that than Mario Kart 8 is because MK8 has no reliable contest data before this year!

The idea behind the comparison I did was to assume Skyrim is the same and eyeball how plausible that is.

By the way is Skyrim still popular? Sure we know this game and everyone knows it. But do people still buy it and play it? Because I am sure Witcher 3 is still beeing played especially after Netflix boost.

Safer_777 posted...

By the way is Skyrim still popular? Sure we know this game and everyone knows it. But do people still buy it and play it? Because I am sure Witcher 3 is still beeing played especially after Netflix boost.

It's been the top FAQ on this site for eight straight years, which I don't understand at all. SOMEONE out there is playing it.

I haven't checked the Oracle. I'm talking about what people feel strongly enough to actually post and argue about. I certainly believe plenty of people saw the writing on the wall vis a vis Skyrim's strength, but I definitely got into arguments with plenty of people that said everyone was overreacting to the Journey match.

All that said, if Skyrim isn't a good candidate, are there other nominations for Turd of the Round? I saw GTAV but that didn't surprise me personally, Rockstar NOT jobbing would have been a bigger shock.

MechanicalWall posted...

I haven't checked the Oracle. I'm talking about what people feel strongly enough to actually post and argue about. I certainly believe plenty of people saw the writing on the wall vis a vis Skyrim's strength, but I definitely got into arguments with plenty of people that said everyone was overreacting to the Journey match.

All that said, if Skyrim isn't a good candidate, are there other nominations for Turd of the Round? I saw GTAV but that didn't surprise me personally, Rockstar NOT jobbing would have been a bigger shock.

Three houses deserves turd of the round more than skyrim imo.

Even going by posts, which users are posting they still think Skyrim can beat Witcher 3? The debate seems to be more about whether Skyrim beats Dark Souls or not.

LeonhartFour posted...

you act like this is beneath them

people who have Pokemon in their bracket might do it if Pokemon were actually in danger of losing

Ulti is very conveniently forgotting past Pokemon's rallies that took full advantage of the number of creepy pedophiles that form said community

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Even going by posts, which users are posting they still think Skyrim can beat Witcher 3?

At this point? None obviously, I'm not calling anyone stupid.

Smash looked like crap against Spider-Man, but I'm guessing that result has been glossed over because it has little impact as to how we can predict a 100% SFF showdown.

Safer_777 posted...

By the way is Skyrim still popular? Sure we know this game and everyone knows it. But do people still buy it and play it? Because I am sure Witcher 3 is still beeing played especially after Netflix boost.

By all indications, yes. On steam (edit: today) it peaked at 25k concurrent players (Witcher 3: 29k). It's perpetually a top 5 game on this site. The subreddit is very active. Skyrim weakening in contests is a result of people just plain liking it less.

squexa posted...

Three houses deserves turd of the round more than skyrim imo.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78615200

I don't include 3H because IMO FE as a whole has been the Turd of the whole Contest

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Smash looked like crap against Spider-Man

Smash is a good candidate tbh

Plenty of people still play Skyrim, but it's also heavily modded Skyrim.

The only vanilla players are Switch/last gen users or people going back to vanillaRim to see just how terrible it is without players doing Bethesda's job for them.

Okay thanks. So after 9 years a SINGLE player game is really popular. I can see why they don't rush to make a sequel.

How does SMG2 compare to MK64 and SMK? Cause I'd guess MK8 is the third top MK at the moment.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Smash looked like crap against Spider-Man, but I'm guessing that result has been glossed over because it has little impact as to how we can predict a 100% SFF showdown.

I'll be shocked if Smash beats Odyssey. The trends leading into that thing are equal to Witcher and Skyrim. One just looks so much better than the other.

Is PS4 Skyrim considered "modded"? I rarely do PC gaming, so I'm usually limited to the best console port.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Is PS4 Skyrim considered "modded"? I rarely do PC gaming, so I'm usually limited to the best console port.

No, and mods are for elitist PC master race snobs anyway. 99% of them are completely pointless.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I'll be shocked if Smash beats Odyssey. The trends leading into that thing are equal to Witcher and Skyrim. One just looks so much better than the other.

Funny thing, I'm actually playing through Odyssey right now, and my firsthand experience is somehow turning me back into favoring Smash (whereas a few days ago, I gave the slight edge to Mario).

@UltimaterializerX Hey the nude mods are always good!

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Is PS4 Skyrim considered "modded"? I rarely do PC gaming, so I'm usually limited to the best console port.

I would still count it just because the unofficial patches by themselves make a significant difference in the game's enjoyability, but PS4 users definitely don't get the best of the mods.

I couldn't imagine playing Skyrim without SkyUI.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Smash looked like crap against Spider-Man, but I'm guessing that result has been glossed over because it has little impact as to how we can predict a 100% SFF showdown.

I believe in Spidey.