Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1354

a site-wide oracle challenge, huh? that’ll be fun. that smash/odyssey match is a killer.

So this Second Chance bracket doesn't seem to affect our main bracket?

Like let's say I have P4 beating Xenoblade. Even if I have XBC win in the second chance bracket, that won't change my first bracket and I still lose those points.

Nooooooo leaderboard!!!

Not sure I like predicting percentages. Got lucky with predicting Witcher 3/SMG2 been 60/40 but normally I'm just not used to this <_<

Entirety separate

I appreciate this format for the second chance bracket.

But man is this break a momentum killer

I guess this second chance thing had to be set up like this bc otherwise it'd be too easy...

But there goes my actual bracket. I thought I could cheekily flip my bracket for Xenoblade and actually stand a chance to win the big bucks.

Where is the confirmation for the second chance bracket being an oracle-challenge? I don't see it.

EDIT: nevermind, found it -- thanks team!

HaRRicH posted...

Where is the confirmation for the second chance bracket being an oracle-challenge? I don't see it.

Go to the home page, and click on the Game of the Decade stuff. There's the entry form.

The s***storm surrounding TLoU2 could really mess with TLoU as far as Oracle points are concerned. It might not perform as well as Skyrim against Dark Souls as a result. So hard to put it right.

tgs2 posted...

The s***storm surrounding TLoU2 could really mess with TLoU as far as Oracle points are concerned. It might not perform as well as Skyrim against Dark Souls as a result. So hard to put it right.

What s***storm?

Yeah, it's not very visible on the front page like the regular entry link was. Not sure why Allen didn't fix that!

I wonder if forcing people to pick percentages is going to scare off a lot of the people who just want to pick winners. I could see a decent amount of people who did brackets not bothering unfortunately. Hope I'm wrong.

Leonhart4 posted...

Yeah, it's not very visible on the front page like the regular entry link was. Not sure why Allen didn't fix that!

I have one of those banners at the top of every page I go to

lol looks like I'm stuck with TLOU > DS

Have we ever had a second chance contest like this before, where everybody predicts the winner's share of votes?

Haste_2 posted...

Have we ever had a second chance contest like this before, where everybody predicts the winner's share of votes?

Nope, the one for the last Character Battle was just a straight pick em.

Haste_2 posted...

Have we ever had a second chance contest like this before, where everybody predicts the winner's share of votes?

There was that thing we did in Rivals where we had an Oracle for the final battle, because there was log jam at the top.

There technically was the finals of Rivalry Rumble because there were multiple winners.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

What s***storm?

TLoU2 was leaked by disgruntled ex-employee. Spoilers everywhere

you know what needs a return

Battle Challenge

that was so much fun

I see. Heh, I just realized that if any match has the winner getting less than 50.5% of the vote, it will be impossible to get a perfect score!

I agree that Battle Challenge needs to come back.

BTW, Official Entry applies to this contest too.

"In Battle #1, if you pick Zelda: Breath of the Wild at 75%, and Dragon Quest XI wins with 50.2% of the vote, you will score 0 points (no points awarded for an incorrect guess)."

That's a 40-50 point hit for an incorrect winner. If you miss a single winner you are likely instantly dead.

Hey @LeonhartFour do you have those xstats you calculated in each division?

I think it's going to be really useful here.

I want Leon to horde them now that money is on the line

whoa official oracle cool

transcience posted...

I want Leon to horde them now that money is on the line

He should post them but introduce subtle errors into them that no one will double check.

Augh I have no oracle intuition

Also speaking of intuition, I initially filled out all of the R1 sliders backwards

I already filled mine like half an hour ago. Gut instincts FTW?

I may change a match or two down the line.

lordjers posted...

I already filled mine like half an hour ago. Gut instincts FTW?

I may change a match or two down the line.

I figure there's going to be logjam no matter what happens, so I am going insane with Persona 5 > Witcher 3. This will give me some breathing room with everything else, on a result that's definitely a possibility.

The only match I've currently flipped on is Skyrim > Witcher.

I'll probably switch to Witcher > Dark Souls > Skyrim once I've put a little more thought into it. I think I'll stick with Smash, obviously sticking with Xenoblade, and at this point, people may as well stick with what they originally have in the ME2/RE2 showdown, because there's absolutely nothing conclusive there.

If I really wanted to gamble, I may pull the trigger with P5 > Witcher in an all or nothing Hail Mary. Apart from Zelda, Persona is the one big game that, IMO, enters Round 4 with the least amount of Round 3 damage.

lordjers posted...

Is Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII really better?

I actually really liked the design and concept they gave to the game's title. It was original in a risky way that turned out awesome imo.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I figure there's going to be logjam no matter what happens, so I am going insane with Persona 5 > Witcher 3. This will give me some breathing room with everything else, on a result that's definitely a possibility.

One less bracket

So I already have my picks covered.

I changed 4 things:

1._Dank Souls > TLOU (logical conclusion)
2._Dank Souls > Skyrim (Dark Souls's been beastin' while Skyrim's been consistently disappointing)
3._Odyssey > Ultimate ('cause Odyssey's been showing way more impressive performances inb4 Leon advocates for Spider-Man)
4._Witcher > Dank Souls (ain't no stopping the madman Geralt here)

Otherwise, despite really liking the percentage format, it's kind of discouraging coming from someone who just can't do well at it.

Just out of curiosity only, are the prices different between brackets? Like is the first one more valuable? Just wanna know how this whole thing works. I guess I could put different outcomes in a couple of debated matches so it comes out a win/win.

Guessing the share vote is hard work.

Whats the point of this second chance bracket, just finish the contest.

ShortReplies posted...

Whats the point of this second chance bracket, just finish the contest.

Anti-rally measures.

Say, if there was a Fortnite rally early on and it went all the way here, it would've drastically changed the outcome of a lot of brackets.

@creativename

If you haven't done so yet, make sure you have the updater disabled for the 6 day break that just started earlier.

Woo hoo, I made it back onto the top 50 lol.

14/16 isn't bad, shame I didn't stick with Persona 4 over GTAV. Never would've guessed Xenoblade would take down FE.

Now this alternate contest, that's for everyone I assume?

Yes, everyone can enter a new Second Chance bracket and it has no effect on your original bracket.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Yes, everyone can enter a new Second Chance bracket and it has no effect on your original bracket.

Not sure why anyone would think otherwise, sigh.

what's a good tiebreaker for 2nd chance @LusterSoldier ? Thanks.

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs. Mario Kart 8
Registered Vote Result:
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 5735 (60.90%)
Mario Kart 8 - 3682 (39.10%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 5092 (60.89%)
Mario Kart 8 - 3271 (39.11%)

Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version vs. NieR: Automata
Registered Vote Result:
Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version - 4989 (52.96%)
NieR: Automata - 4431 (47.04%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version - 4131 (49.41%)
NieR: Automata - 4229 (50.59%)

With a 0.01% difference on Skyrim/Mario Kart, this is now officially the closest split between registered and anonymous users in any match that we have data on.

Pokemon did about 3.5% better with registered users, with Nier outright winning among anonymous users.

The potential for the hentai rallies having an effect on this match can't be ruled out, as multiple rallies were posted on various hentai subreddits. With these matches having 52.97% registered users, the rallies had very little impact here. Backfire votes going to Pokemon instead can also mask the potential impact of the rally, and a game like Pokemon can pull in some votes off the rallies because Pokemon also has a huge hentai scene as well. But as with any rally, it certainly would have brought in some extra votes just because some people will see it and put in a vote.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

SuperNiceDog posted...

what's a good tiebreaker for 2nd chance @LusterSoldier ? Thanks.

240000 to 400000 is my recommended tiebreaker range.

Although I generally wouldn't recommend going above 300000. I extended the range up to 400000 due to a potential CD Projekt Red rally that could significantly boost vote totals in the final match of the contest if The Witcher 3 gets that far.

LusterSoldier posted...

240000 to 400000 is my recommended tiebreaker range.

Although I generally wouldn't recommend going above 300000. I extended the range up to 400000 due to a potential CD Projekt Red rally that could significantly boost vote totals in the final match of the contest if The Witcher 3 gets that far.

Tiebreaker is only the vote total for the finals. So it should be around 15000-20000 without rallies.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Tiebreaker is only the vote total for the finals. So it should be around 15000-20000 without rallies.

Interesting, I didn't know that was the tiebreaker and assumed it was going to be the same question we had for the last Second Chance Bracket. But yeah, the final is going to be in the range of 16000 to 20000, unless The Witcher 3 gets a massive CD Projekt Red rally which could boost that significantly to 30000 to 100000.

The final getting under 16000 is extremely unlikely based the average vote totals for round 2 and round 3. The round 1 average was only 15591, but this increases to 17689 for round 2, and drops off slightly to 17331 for round 3. The lower average for round 3 might be the result of round 2 having more rallied matches in general.

Didn't we lose voters after the break last time and never fully recovered? Although that probably won't push things below 16000.

Should change my tiebreaker, not that it will likely be needed given the degrees of freedom here.

ok so maybe 24000?