Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1353

Sens-Hangar_18 posted...

RDR2 should have been put against TLOU or some other controversial popular game so it can flourish when it's own anti-votes get taken up by TLOU. Nobody hates Portal, it's got the quietest fanbase of all the critically acclaimed modern franchises

Portal memed its way to stardom in 2007. It was inescapable the same way Undertale and Skyrim were during their peaks.

UF8 posted...

skyward sword has got to be the game people most visibly turned on after launch this decade

still can't believe it didn't even make it in

Skyward Sword had competition given the two games per series rule. Pokemon Gen 5 missing the cut was more surprising considering there is only one pokemon game in the bracket.

tgs2 posted...

Portal memed its way to stardom in 2007. It was inescapable the same way Undertale and Skyrim were during their peaks.

I haven't heard of them at all for the last 8 years. From my experience no one overhypes them and no one bashes them

LeonhartFour posted...

Nah, you're giving Dark Souls way too much credit. 65% should be considered its top end, not its bare minimum.

I mean it could rise from here on out.

I wasn't off when i predicted this. Anything less than 63 would be a bad showing for Souls.

Stooge1969 posted...

Skyward Sword had competition given the two games per series rule. Pokemon Gen 5 missing the cut was more surprising considering there is only one pokemon game in the bracket.

And that only Pokemon game were remakes

I think that shows how awful the pokemon game nominations were. Pretty sure Allen would have preferred to put in New Pokemon games not Remakes.

Also hwo would they have done? Sun and Moon seems most popular? They would be out in rounds 2 most likely.

on the SS thing

Allen sabotaged LBW by putting it in the next match against SMash...why couldn't he do that with SS? just put it in the same division as BOTW.

I would have loved to have seen FFXV/Skyward Sword.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

I mean it could rise from here on out.

I wasn't off when i predicted this. Anything less than 63 would be a bad showing for Souls.

Pretty sure I wasn't off either. Looks like 65% was its ceiling.

Leonhart4 posted...

Pretty sure I wasn't off either. Looks like 65% was its ceiling.

Either way I don't think i've overrated DS at all. Its a legit game.

Yeah, I'm impressed with what it's doing here. I just thought talk of it hitting 70% or being a doubling at bare minimum was a little overboard.

Monster update for TLOU

batman rally spotted on reddit too

on r/batmanarkham

So how well does Skyrim have to go against MK8 for people to consider it the favorite against Witcher 3 and Dark Souls?

KamikazePotato posted...

So how well does Skyrim have to go against MK8 for people to consider it the favorite against Witcher 3 and Dark Souls?

Doubling bare minimum.

LeonhartFour posted...

Doubling bare minimum.

Seems a little lofty... but at the same time not?

Skyrim has been the least beastly of the three, so it needs a big performance to actually become the FAVORITE again, but at the same time... how much weaker is MK8 relative to SMG2?

Also, I'd take Mario Kart 8 over MGS5 no question, so a doubling would at least reestablish it as the favorite against Dark Souls.

(but it's not getting a doubling lol)

yeah, I find MK8 very hard to place. I wouldn’t be surprised if it isn’t all that much behind Galaxy 2 given the difference in play rates between those two games.

Galaxy 2 should beat MK8 fairly easily even before SFF.

How good is 60% on Uncharted 4 and FFXIV, really? We know they're both for sure weaker than FFXV, which isn't even at 20% on BOTW.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Also, I'd take Mario Kart 8 over MGS5 no question, so a doubling would at least reestablish it as the favorite against Dark Souls.

(but it's not getting a doubling lol)

well that's what the question was!

Advokaiser posted...

I have a question.

Does anyone know the trends for anonymous users in the early vote?

We already know bracket voters and registered users flood the gates the first few minutes, but what about the non-registered users? At around what time into the match do they start voting like crazy?

I could do trend charts showing the percentage of registered users over the course of a match for this contest, but I haven't gotten around to doing it yet. Maybe during the 6 day break, I'll do some trend charts for select matches. But I will refer you to these trend charts from the previous contest:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub?gid=1379643868

The percentage of registered users starts out high at the start of the match, but slowly declines as the match drags on. By the second half of the match, anonymous users are making up a pretty clear majority of the incoming votes by that point.

Why did I take MGS V to win this
Why am I so stupid

It's not even close what the f***

After that early scare, Batman / Last of Us is lining up perfectly with the 2015 projections. Maybe Last of Us hasn't fallen in strength after all!

I mean, that doesn't help it when Dark Souls is way stronger now, but silver linings!

So, Division 7 looks like it's going to be the rare completely chalk division, where everything goes according to seed, and the only match that had a chance of flipping was the 8/9 between Rocket League and DBZ.

Woke up, checked the results. Normal

Persona 5 vs. Sonic Mania
Registered Vote Result:
Persona 5 - 6009 (67.88%)
Sonic Mania - 2843 (32.12%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Persona 5 - 5022 (67.91%)
Sonic Mania - 2373 (32.09%)

Portal 2 vs. Red Dead Redemption 2
Registered Vote Result:
Portal 2 - 4732 (53.46%)
Red Dead Redemption 2 - 4120 (46.54%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Portal 2 - 3958 (53.52%)
Red Dead Redemption 2 - 3437 (46.48%)

Interesting splits in both of these matches, with almost identical results from both registered and anonymous users. The difference was only 0.03% for Persona 5/Sonic Mania and 0.06% for Portal 2/RDR2. I believe the 0.03% difference in the Persona 5 match is the closest we've gotten to a match with identical results from both registered and anonymous users.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

That's what happens when there are no rallies

It's not just that. There are things that do better with the core of GameFAQs than with people following the contest more casually.

I am still wondering why there are people that browse GameFAQs without a user
The message boards are all that matter nowadays

What do you mean? Probably checking faqs or message boards answers.

I just did some xstats from today's match and the last Skyrim one and, assuming neiher Journey nor MGSV changed in strength from 2015, Dark Souls beats Skyrim by about 54%.

Those are two very tricky assumptions, though!

Safer_777 posted...

What do you mean? Probably checking faqs or message boards answers.

Seriously. I imagine not everyone uses YouTube guides, for fear of accidentally clicking spoilers.

Text guides have their advantages.

Nanis23 posted...

I am still wondering why there are people that browse GameFAQs without a user
The message boards are all that matter nowadays

A bunch are probably people voting from their phones not logged in, and from their PC logged in

dark souls / skyrim is looking to be a 50/50 match honestly

had the bloodborne rally ban not happened i would've called the match for dark souls by now. (i think DS subreddit is pretty much ran and modded by the same people)

what does MGSV get on KH3

because that's basically what Dark Souls would get on Portal 2 and I don't think I'd expect MGSV to win by a lot

r/FromSoftware left the rally up for the entire match tho, so it still has that outlet

also worth noting is that there was a final BB rally that disguised the rally as a "discussion" as to whether or not BB was GotD and that stayed up. If the same person/people who made those rallies make the same kind for DS then they will not be taken down

Hm, The Last of Us doesn't look that bad anymore.

Xstats, assuming Batman: Arkham City, Journey and MGSV stayed constant since 2015:
Dark Souls - 30.58
Skyrim - 28.42
The Last of Us - 28.10

LeonhartFour posted...

what does MGSV get on KH3

because that's basically what Dark Souls would get on Portal 2 and I don't think I'd expect MGSV to win by a lot

I'd expect MGSV to at least push for a 60-40. Oh wait no that would mean KH3 is weaker than Yakuza 0, though I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I'd expect MGSV to at least push for a 60-40. Oh wait no that would mean KH3 is weaker than Yakuza 0, though I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case.

I would be.

The projected gap between Dark Souls and the others is going down, though.

Right now DS gets 53.44% on Skyrim.

Yakuza 0 is probably in the same ballpark as KH3. like, it'd lose to it, but not by much.

KH3 would probably beat Yakuza 0 just because of the KH name and nothing more.

squexa posted...

Hm, The Last of Us doesn't look that bad anymore.

Xstats, assuming Batman: Arkham City, Journey and MGSV stayed constant since 2015:
Dark Souls - 30.58
Skyrim - 28.42
The Last of Us - 28.10

This seems very off to me.

Skyrim contest strength is overrated
But I agree it beats Dark Souls

i mean..if it beats Dark Souls there really isnt much left for it to beat

right now it seems like the only games above dark souls in the bracket are BoTW and Witcher 3 (and possibly Skyrim, as said)

How much does Galaxy 2 beat MGSV by?

ctesjbuvf posted...

This seems very off to me.

I guess it seems off because TLoU is so high, but this performance by TLoU is pretty good, considering Batman got close to 41% on MMX in 2015.

Batman might have fallen, but that's likely the case for MGSV as well.

In 2015 x-stats Galaxy 2 v MGSV would have been a 60-40 match

Allow for a little falling of MGSV and it's not impossible Dark Souls is only as good as Galaxy 2 ie s***stomped by Witcher

I expect Batman to be more constant than MGSV, tbh.

The Batman game franchise died, but it died in spite of City. While MGSV was the bad game that ended the series.

MechanicalWall posted...

In 2015 x-stats Galaxy 2 v MGSV would have been a 60-40 match

Allow for a little falling of MGSV and it's not impossible Dark Souls is only as good as Galaxy 2 ie s***stomped by Witcher

Imo the more Skyrim vs DS looks like a coin flip match, the less it seems either game has business fighting The Witcher.

Well ball's in Skyrim's court today.

Witcher and DkS have established a pretty clear line of what Skyrim has to do to threaten a finals run; Mario Kart 8 should be noticeably weaker than Galaxy 2 and a bit weaker than MGSV. It actually has to do a lot to be impressive tbh, like a doubling to safely bypass DkS and like a 70-30 to threaten Witcher.

Is that asking too much? Maybe, but Skyrim got handed the easiest route to Division finals of any 1 seed other than maybe Persona (BotW doesn't count cause it'll stomp everything) It's in a position to still threaten to put up big numbers

Sharinnegan posted...

i mean..if it beats Dark Souls there really isnt much left for it to beat

right now it seems like the only games above dark souls in the bracket are BoTW and Witcher 3 (and possibly Skyrim, as said)

I think I'd pick Smash and Odyssey over it without thinking. Persona 5 should be considered too.

I don’t think MK8 needs to look weaker than MGSV. MK8 beat Uncharted 4 by more than 2015 MGSV would beat Uncharted 2 - you can make an argument that UC2 beats UC4, but not by that much plus however much MGSV has fallen by. If Skyrim breaks 60% it may well be okay against Dark Souls.

I'm not that impressed with Dark Souls, but that's because I expect MGSV to be weaker relative to 2015. In my eyes the game is out of the running for the finals (barring any rallies). It could upset Skyrim, but that would be more due to Skyrim's weakness and not Dark Souls' strength.