Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1348

Diegui posted...

are the rallies favoring botw or ffxv?

No ones going to see the worst mainline FF game since X getting absolutely butt destroyed by a Zelda game and think "hey I should rally this".
I hope.

Safer_777 posted...

There is a rally I believe. Plus DQ games as I have wrote in my analysis were never strong or popular. DQ11 is by far the best selling DQ game too.

Not by far. It barely reached DQIX total sales while being a multiplatforms game.

Yeah but have you counted the Enchanced Version sales too?

This discussion made me wonder where the games in this contest are coming from, so here's a list of the numbers of games by country, primary developers only:

Japan - 48
USA - 45
Canada - 10
France - 5
Sweden - 4
UK - 4*
Australia - 2
Poland - 2
Belgium - 1
China - 1
Croatia - 1
Finland - 1
The Netherlands - 1

*For VVVVVV, the developer is Irish but is based in the UK including during development and BAFTA count it as a British game so I counted it as such, but this could also be 1 to Ireland. I also counted Disco Elysium as British as that's where the main team was.

Overall Japan and the US are still dominant but there is a reasonable diversity of countries after those two, I'd expect more than last time. Shout out to Sweden for the most games per capita. I did not count Ori, Night in the Woods, or Red Dead Redemption 2 (spot the odd one out) as these all used widely distributed development models.

For anyone interested in guru/contest leaderboard stuff, @azuarc made a great spreadsheet that allows people to see the guru standings based on who wins every remaining match, and then I did some of my own trial and error to see who was most likely to be the winner:

azuarc posted...

azuarc posted...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qK4NOzPxYNNsuGw10Esrc-KKTGQd6S5kbRywdWE_2oQ/edit#gid=1775137827

The spreadsheet above is supposed to simulate the tournament as though a chosen user is correct for the rest of the bracket. It gives the scores of all the users accordingly. Obviously if you enter a user, and they are not listed first on their own list, they are eliminated.

Please let me know if there are errors. I've never shared a spreadsheet before and locked all but a small part of it down, and I'm sure I made some clerical errors since I manually entered all that data. (Anyone who participates in VGMC will tell you how reliable my data entry skills are.)

Woke up this morning inspired to add on to this. Now you can also pick specific results for specific matches. I didn't really do it the "right" way, as someone who once studied computer science, and exotic results aren't available, but hopefully I didn't screw anything up.

davidponte posted...

Alright, I've inputted various results for the remaining matches, with the guaranteed winners staying constant and then going back and forth on all of the debated matches to see if it makes a difference.

On the top of the bracket, I see no way in which @MetalmindStats doesn't win at this point. I am very likely going to come in second or tied for second. This assumes no major upsets like Zelda losing, and also assumes that Witcher beats Skyrim.

Oddly enough, nothing else really matters, again, barring some theoretical upsets. The Bloodborne/RE2 match doesn't change things, regardless if the winner then wins the division. Xenoblade/Fire Emblem also doesn't matter. Even GTA/Xenoblade doesn't affect the top.

The only matches that DO matter are GTA/P4G and ME2/Bloodborne/RE2. If P4G and/or ME2 win those matches, then someone else wins other than @MetalmindStats or myself, and neither of us are in second.

The only way I come in first, given all those other results, is if TLOU beats Dark Souls, which isn't happening. So I'm essentially playing for second at this point.

Please correct me if I'm wrong! Again, I didn't take into account the upset that definitely won't happen, and only looked at the contested matches.

Forgot to add: The HGSS/NieR match also matters. If Pokemon wins and everything else is constant, azuarc goes into second and I fall to 3rd. If Pokemon wins then Bloodborne wins its division, we find the third scenario where neither MetalmindStats or myself wins.

Of course Japan and USA would dominate.

In hindsight I should have known TLOU > Dark Souls was a bad pick, but I didn't think it would make the difference between theoretically winning the guru and not.

This spreadsheet is amazing, good job azuarc!

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Plus Dark Souls vs Skyrim, which is turning to be a great match-up.

Yeah, that was supposed to be included in "matches in the bottom half after that".

Yeah, interesting stuff.

I think the only way I can win is if Three Houses > P4G, which...is very unlikely to happen without a rally or three.

If we're using this boring day to air out bracket regrets, than I really only have 2

- Uncharted > Mario Kart AND FFXIV: Ngl Mario Kart always looked like s*** in these contests so I thought the massively acclaimed, major PS4 exclusive could win. Forgetting Uncharted also always sucks.

- FE > Bloodborne: this one is so frustrating for me because for the longest time, I had Bloodborne winning here. BB winning made all the sense in the world to me for reasons I've written in the past. But this was the only match I let the board get in my ear and convince me I was wrong. Blah

Everything else was s*** like Bastion > Walking dead or Ori > Dragon Age where it's like, who could have known and who cares. Although I suspect P4 > GTA and 3H > Xenoblade are gonna join this list soon

KH3 > Portal and TLOU > Dark Souls were my only two major fanboy picks of the contest and they both ended up killing my bracket.

I've never done extremely well before because I could never convince myself to make the objective pick despite knowing I should, and it has literally always ended poorly. This time around, I was able to do that for the most part and it looks like I'll probably stay on the leaderboard for the rest of the contest, unless GTA or NieR lose this round. Next time around I'm going 100% objective.

Witcher > Skyrim was also a fanboy pick but at least I can base that one in facts.

this match is already almost 3000 votes ahead of the one from two days ago (last day's had a divinity rally. compared to that its about 1500 ahead)

this is partly just votals increasing naturally of course, but MH might have had the biggest rally we've seen so far. we're likely gonna end over 4000 ahead.

My regrets are trusting Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem way too much just because they're Nintendo and had new games recently come out. Being a Nintendo game helps a lot but that only goes so far unless it's Zelda or a main line Mario.

rallies are still lame even when they don't change the outcome

LeonhartFour posted...

rallies are still lame even when they don't change the outcome

Okay this one just makes no sense to me, bro. It's literally only more vote totals and a percentage change or two.

Dragon Quest is on the verge of losing. What the hell, Monster Hunter rallies are doing well.

Dragon Quest is not going to lose.

How is 53-47 on the verge of losing.

davidponte posted...

For anyone interested in guru/contest leaderboard stuff, @azuarc made a great spreadsheet that allows people to see the guru standings based on who wins every remaining match, and then I did some of my own trial and error to see who was most likely to be the winner:

ZeldaTPLink posted...

This spreadsheet is amazing, good job azuarc!

Thank you both. I've always been fascinated by guru eliminations, but never bothered to dip into actually solving the elimination problem. But since someone already does that, I decided I'd be satisfied with being able to see "what if" and I figured others might feel the same. I'm glad it seems to be working since the response I expected was "it's broken because XXX."

I mean it lost some lead, maybe two more rallies and its out.

its not in any danger of losing, but i think this was the biggest rally we've seen yet

this might have been like...a 57 - 43 win for DQ without rallies.

Terrific job azuarc, really really useful.

So to win, I need GTAV to win its division, ME2 to win its division, and Nier to beat Pokémon.

...So you’re saying there’s a chance!

Nah my big regret is doubting Xenoblade, especially since it’s one of my favourites.

Safer_777 posted...

Of course Japan and USA would dominate.

That’s to be expected, but it is still a decline of 14 from last time despite the US rising by 7 and the UK falling by 6, so it’s a lot more diverse than it used to be. There were only games from five countries last time - Japan, the US, the UK, Canada, and France. Maybe in ten years the US will have overtaken Japan and the two will be a minority of the games!

ShortReplies posted...

I mean it lost some lead, maybe two more rallies and its out.

where is it going to get two more rallies from

Lightning Strikes posted...

So to win, I need GTAV to win its division, ME2 to win its division, and Nier to beat Pokémon.

...So you’re saying there’s a chance!

This is all more likely than TLOU > Dark Souls so there definitely is a chance there. All three of those things could plausibly happen!

MoogleKupo141 posted...

where is it going to get two more rallies from

You know, wherever rallies come from. It doesn't matter if they're worth 10 votes each, two more rallies is the magic number.

oh yeah duh, my bad

I was trying to work out the details of what could potentially be the weakest game in each division and thus the contenders for bottom game in the X-Stats. We'll already have a fight on our hands for dead last in Division 1 between Trails SC and Edith Finch.

DQXI currently needs at least 26.23% on BOTW next round for Trails SC not to be dead last in the Division 1 X-Stats.

It would be almost impossible for INSIDE not to finish dead last. RE2 would have to get 69.62% on Bloodborne tomorrow and 68.42% on ME2.

The contenders in Division 3 are the two fighting games. Smash needs at least 58.78% on Odyssey for it to be Tekken 7 instead of Mortal Kombat 11.

There's quite a fight at the bottom of Division 4. Pretty much whoever wins between GTAV and P4G will decide who's lower between Baba Is You and Ghost Trick, and then they'd need at least 48% on Xenoblade in the division finals for it to be Splatoon 2 instead.

Return of the Obra Dinn practically has it on lockdown in Division 5. Galaxy 2 would have to be able to get 57.73% on GoW and 59.98% on Witcher 3 for it to be something else.

It might be pretty close betwee Dying Light and Slay the Spire in Division 6. RDR2 has to be worth 57.40% on Sonic Mania for it to be Slay the Spire.

In Division 7, TLOU has to be able to get 53.05% on MGSV for it not to be Crusader Kings II and Dark Souls has to be able to get 56% for it not to be Hotline Miami. Otherwise, it's The Witness.

Finally, Pokemon has to get 53.14% on Automata for Night in the Woods > Hearthstone, and then 44.34% on Skyrim for Night in the Woods > Subnautica. MK8 needs 35.45% on Skyrim for NecroDancer > Subnautica.

davidponte posted...

You know, wherever rallies come from. It doesn't matter if they're worth 10 votes each, two more rallies is the magic number.

Two more haha.

direshall posted...

Not by far. It barely reached DQIX total sales while being a multiplatforms game.

no but in terms of popularity on this site 11 is miles ahead and honestly i feel 11 will onlyget more popular in the future

Lightning Strikes posted...

Terrific job azuarc, really really useful.

So to win, I need GTAV to win its division, ME2 to win its division, and Nier to beat Pokémon.

...So you’re saying there’s a chance!

Nah my big regret is doubting Xenoblade, especially since it’s one of my favourites.

That’s to be expected, but it is still a decline of 14 from last time despite the US rising by 7 and the UK falling by 6, so it’s a lot more diverse than it used to be. There were only games from five countries last time - Japan, the US, the UK, Canada, and France. Maybe in ten years the US will have overtaken Japan and the two will be a minority of the games!

It's kinda funny because the average Japanese game would double (at least) the average American game.

I can see DQ doing a respectable% against BOTW next round. If botw falls below 80 here it falsl below 75 for sure next round. I think DQ can avoid the tripling

I took World > DQXI so I can be happy regardless of result

Hooray DQ having some respect finally

DoomTheGyarados posted...

I took World > DQXI so I can be happy regardless of result

Hooray DQ having some respect finally

i mean imagine this game had good music it would be even stronger!

but seriously. Having hero in smash and dqxi being highly rsted in switch sort of helps

MHW is also very popular here

both games would Easily best FFXV. Thats not even a debate at this point.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

I took World > DQXI so I can be happy regardless of result

Hooray DQ having some respect finally

It's always had respect to anyone who isn't dumb!

So which is the strongest American game?

Either Skyrim or God of War

Bonus poll! And one extra bonus poll for strongest japanese game!

Only bracket regret is Fate/Grand Order over Journey because I knew Journey was piss weak and assumed by the seeding that FGO was some high-profile visual novel. Not whatever a gacha game is.

My gut picks included Fire Emblem: Awakening winning three matches and Uncharted 4 winning two. I'm so glad I changed on the former because it didn't look right and on the latter due to remembering being burned by Drake in 2018 and the eerie similarity between Tails' and MK8's bracket positions in their respective contests. Though then again I also switched from Devil May Cry > Donkey Kong Country for precisely that reason. My gut pick was that since direct extrapolation from 2018 has Dante narrowly edging out DK Devil May Cry would win, but then getting burned by DK three times in a row and Dante's propensity to choke away debatable matches - ESPECIALLY against Nintendo - led me to change. Oh well.

wait

F/GO isn't a visual novel?

Fate/Stay Night is a visual novel
FGO is not

Clearly I actually have to look up games instead of making dumb presumptions.

I can't seem to get back on the leaderboard even though I got only 2 matches wrong last round - had Undertale and RDR1 in Round 3 - and going over the prediction percentages and percentile stats leads me to the conclusion that the top of the field is distancing itself from the rest. At least I have no picks this round that I know are doomed, and only one I'm even remotely sweating over (GTAV).

squexa posted...

Either Skyrim or God of War

i mean it was skyrim 5 years ago

maybe Goldeneye has reclaimed back the number 1 spot. With low votals and more nostalgia goldeneye might edge it

edit. I mean witcher 3 is a western game. We should just say non japanese. Wit chi er 3 it is

edit. Just read your posts. You said american not western. My bad

I just remembered I have RE2 over Bloodborne. Never mind about my sake Round 3 then.

Safer_777 posted...

Bonus poll! And one extra bonus poll for strongest japanese game!

nah thats boring

do strongest european game instead

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I just remembered I have RE2 over Bloodborne. Never mind about my sake Round 3 then.

re2 is going to beat bloodborne without rallies. Problem is rallies

Yuri_LowelI posted...

i mean it was skyrim 5 years ago

maybe Goldeneye has reclaimed back the number 1 spot. With low votals and more nostalgia goldeneye might edge it

edit. I mean witcher 3 is a western game. We should just say non japanese. Wit chi er 3 it is

edit. Just read your posts. You said american not western. My bad

Goldeneye's not American either.

Actually now that I think about it, Metroid Prime is probably the strongest American game, if that counts.

No way God Of War doesn' tbeat Metroid Prime now.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

nah thats boring

do strongest european game instead

Spoilers: It's The Witcher III

Yeah no contest there.