Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1347

Stooge1969 posted...

but that means it isn't an indie game. an indie game means it's created by a team without the financial support of a large game publisher. ori isn't an indie game by definition.

Ori 2 isn't an indie game, sure

ctesjbuvf posted...

I had to look that up. Three years it would seem according to Wikipedia.

More than I thought.

If they were already owned by Microsoft 3 years before the game came out, it sounds pretty questionable to still call it an indie game.

This Nier match confuses me. Either Bayo 2's weaker than we think, Divinity is really legit or there's some Platinum SFF between Nier and Bayo 2.

squexa posted...

there's some Platinum SFF between Nier and Bayo 2.

I been saying this, told ppl Nier's R2 was gonna disappoint if they took R1 at face value

Divinity might be this contest's equivalent of Baldur's Gate II in many aspects.

Skyrim will probably end up with the same % on Journey as Witcher 3 on Mass Effect 3.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Skyrim will probably end up with the same % on Journey as Witcher 3 on Mass Effect 3.

So... Journey vs. ME3, who ya got >_>

squexa posted...

This Nier match confuses me. Either Bayo 2's weaker than we think, Divinity is really legit or there's some Platinum SFF between Nier and Bayo 2.

Divinity OS2 is one of the highest rated games this gen, it recently got Console ports and a Switchport. Pretty much most people who have played it rate it as an all time GOAT RPG.

Wether that means anything probably not. But its a hugely respected game.

Ori is up there with Life is Strange in the borderline "not an indie" zone. It's not wrong to call them indies, but they had big publisher backing.

Advokaiser posted...

So... Journey vs. ME3, who ya got >_>

ME3 doubles Journey.

As wack as ME3's x-stat is, it has ME3 getting 73% on Journey

Allowing for some falling of the franchise and it should still easily double it

Yeah, that's what I thought… >_>

Witcher's gonna 55-45 Skyrim, isn't it...

Yikes, Pokémon is pulling out almost the same percentage on Rayman as Skyrim is doing to Journey. Upset alert?

MechanicalWall posted...

As wack as ME3's x-stat is, it has ME3 getting 73% on Journey

Allowing for some falling of the franchise and it should still easily double it

I mean thats not accurate.

I think ME3 gets about 64-67 on Journey now.

Advokaiser posted...

Yeah, that's what I thought… >_>

Witcher's gonna 55-45 Skyrim, isn't it...

Its going to 55-45 Dark Souls sure.

Nintendogs posted...

Yikes, Pokémon is pulling out almost the same percentage on Rayman as Skyrim is doing to Journey. Upset alert?

Nah, Rayman wouldn't have any problem taking out Journey in a direct match. Skyrim is still safe.

LusterSoldier posted...

Nah, Rayman wouldn't have any problem taking out Journey in a direct match. Skyrim is still safe.

Um... if Rayman has no problem taking out Journey that means Skyrim is not safe at all

the underdogs strike again

Dark Souls vs. Rocket League
Registered Vote Result:
Dark Souls - 6592 (76.93%)
Rocket League - 1977 (23.07%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Dark Souls - 5737 (78.30%)
Rocket League - 1590 (21.70%)

Yakuza 0 vs. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
Registered Vote Result:
Yakuza 0 - 3684 (42.97%)
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 4889 (57.03%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Yakuza 0 - 3094 (42.23%)
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 4233 (57.77%)

Batman: Arkham City vs. BioShock Infinite
Registered Vote Result:
Batman: Arkham City - 5149 (60.07%)
BioShock Infinite - 3422 (39.93%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Batman: Arkham City - 4339 (59.22%)
BioShock Infinite - 2988 (40.78%)

Diablo III vs. The Last of Us
Registered Vote Result:
Diablo III - 3191 (37.21%)
The Last of Us - 5384 (62.79%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Diablo III - 2607 (35.58%)
The Last of Us - 4720 (64.42%)

Diablo III doing better with registered users is a real shocker as registered users should be better informed as to why Blizzard is a controversial game company, which could have carried over to Diablo III anti-votes as a product of general Blizzard anti-voting. Yet that didn't seem to happen here based on the splits.

Other games that did better with registered users were Rocket League, Yakuza 0, and Batman: Arkham City, though none of the splits were big at all. In general, it seems that the multiplayer focused games (like Rocket League) do better with registered users as these games are a much better experience when you play with people you know instead of with random people. So it makes sense that perhaps the multplayer focused games have better playrates among registered users for this reason, which can help explain why they do better with this group of voters.

Vote totals for these matches were also the lowest we've seen in round 2, but it seems that the lack of Nintendo games in Division 7 is contributing to these poor vote totals. The percentage of registered users is also the highest it's been for round 2, though it's still lower than anything we saw in round 1 when the forced voting may have turned off some anonymous voters.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

LusterSoldier posted...

Nah, Rayman wouldn't have any problem taking out Journey in a direct match. Skyrim is still safe.

Would it

Again, I have no faith in Rayman/Celeste actually being better than Journey, just like Crypt of the Necrodancer doesn't look like it's any better than Journey. Journey might actually be a decent benchmark for the really weak indie games.

A better question would be Celeste/Journey as Celeste was virtually 50/50. Rayman would likely draw a bunch of apathy votes on name recognition whereas the above wouldn't as much.

It would be close enough to the point Skyrim has room to breathe even if Journey loses that matchup.

MechanicalWall posted...

Um... if Rayman has no problem taking out Journey that means Skyrim is not safe at all

I don't think it would be an huge win for Rayman, but even something like a 55% win would be a match that wasn't really in question from the beginning.

The results are also kind of early for today's matches, and we're still in a very poor time period for Skyrim (and a good one for Pokemon). Skyrim is going to do its best work in the morning and day vote, so I think it's got a chance of going above 77% before the match ends. Pokemon is also pretty weak with the late night vote and morning vote, since that time period has the oldest voters on average and thus the voters least likely to have played Pokemon, so it may finish under 73%.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Hey this topic has both @LamarJackson and @FFDragon in it.

 https://twitter.com/Lj_era8/status/1251557694374391809 (click to expand) 

Is this peak 2020 yet?

Its absolutely disgusting, I tell you

Though I actually don't have any issue with a person having their own political statements, since I can differentiate the player and the person.

Who's strongest and weakest between Rayman, Journey, Divinity?

I think journey > Rayman > divinity

Rayman > Journey > Divinity

LamarJackson posted...

Its absolutely disgusting, I tell you

Though I actually don't have any issue with a person having their own political statements, since I can differentiate the player and the person.

I'm not sure why anybody would listen to a literally brain damaged uneducated meathead, butbsure

I'm not really sure what to think of this NieR result. I don't know the first thing about Divinity. Is this game apparently kind of popular, or at least has one of those devoted fanbases that will vote for it over 90% of the field? Hearthstone might be the type of game that's so weak even getting 68% on it is a bad showing.

Just for the record, what's the percentage Skyrim needs for Fate = Subnautica?

Nintendogs posted...

Just for the record, what's the percentage Skyrim needs for Fate = Subnautica?

76.33%

Ranticoot posted...

Is this game apparently kind of popular, or at least has one of those devoted fanbases that will vote for it over 90% of the field?

Divinity 1 & 2 were both extremely popular when they came out (and are still highly regarded). They're not going to be GameFAQs famous but they're hardly unknown entities.

Mac Arrowny posted...

76.33%

Gacha redeemed?

MechanicalWall posted...

Gacha redeemed?

So much for the mobile gacha game getting in dead last.

didnt divinity 2 double RE7 in a previous poll?

ppl are underestimating it heavily.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5748-best-of-2014-pc
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6948-best-of-2017-pc
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year

Both Divinity games did pretty good in Game of the Year polls. 2 got wrecked in the final 2017 poll, but, well, Breath of the Wild.

I had no idea what Divinity was but seeing those polls it's not exactly bottom of the barrel fodder.

Looks like Uncharted 4 > FFXIV now.

btw there is a somewhat successful rally topic going in divinity subreddit.

Oh lmao Mario Kart> FFXIV is not even close
I had MK winning but expected something like 53-47

MechanicalWall posted...

As wack as ME3's x-stat is, it has ME3 getting 73% on Journey

The problem is that these two statements are directly contradictory. KP did great work adjusting most of 2015's weirdness to make a set of stats that's very usable for comparisons like these, yes. The key word there being most, and Mass Effect 3 is the glaring, unadjustable exception because its only match was with Undertale. You'd be much better off pretending that there's never been such a thing as a Mass Effect 3 x-stat value than assuming its strength was actually right around the first two Mass Effects.

LusterSoldier posted...

as registered users should be better informed as to why Blizzard is a controversial game company

What exactly makes you think unregistered GameFAQs voters in an unrallied match were any less informed about Blizzard than registered GameFAQs voters?

Ranticoot posted...

Hearthstone might be the type of game that's so weak even getting 68% on it is a bad showing.

Certainly, I'm thinking this is the case; to put Nier and Divinity's results here in perspective, Nier would get 81% on Hearthstone through Divinity. That's barely ahead of what Suikoden II would score based on 2015 stats, which should be perfectly reliable since both games lost to Ocarina. Maybe there's a case to be had that Hearthstone scored some apathy votes this time around to inflate its standing. However, I'm inclined to think Ocarina was actually a pretty good opponent for Hearthstone given how badly it was antivoted in the rest of its 2015 matches, plus Hearthstone has good reason to have dropped off since then.

While we're on the subject of gauging Nier via Hearthstone, I wanted to springboard on some earlier posts about the juxtaposition of Nier's two matches. I mentioned earlier that Nier gets 81% on Hearthstone extrapolated through Divinity; when pegged through Bayonetta 2 using 2015 x-stats, however, Nier would almost break 85% on Hearthstone.

In other words, it seems like MechanicalWall was actually right about Nier SFFing Bayonetta 2 in that match, and that extrapolation even gives us an approximate gauge for how much SFF Nier scored. Frankly, that baffles me, considering the games' fundamental differences and the fact that they share zero platforms. I guess their Platinum characteristics resulted in significantly overlapping fanbases despite the aforementioned points.

Mass Effect 3 might have fallen off a cliff, which accounts for Shepard's drop between 2013 and 2015. Mass Effect 2's results this contest plug into the 2015 stats quite nicely.

I don't think 39% on MGS3 was a fluke. MGS3's match against BioShock the previous round was the obvious fluke because BioShock benefited from THREE rallies.

Sharinnegan posted...

btw there is a somewhat successful rally topic going in divinity subreddit.

Quite a few people online. I'm curious to see by the end of the match how it much it mattered.

Love reading comments in such threads.

"gamefaqs.gamespot.com? What happened to my youth!"

And obviously complains about stuff like Mario Kart > Uncharted.

I expected the rise towards 80% to be well underway for Skyrim by the time I woke up, but it looks like it hasn't happened. Maybe the day vote will be great for it, but 6% at this point seems tough to do.

KamikazePotato posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5748-best-of-2014-pc
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6948-best-of-2017-pc
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year

Both Divinity games did pretty good in Game of the Year polls. 2 got wrecked in the final 2017 poll, but, well, Breath of the Wild.

divinity 2 was pc only that year. It came out on consoles in 2018 and switch in 2019.

davidponte posted...

I expected the rise towards 80% to be well underway for Skyrim by the time I woke up, but it looks like it hasn't happened. Maybe the day vote will be great for it, but 6% at this point seems tough to do.

its not getting anywhere near 80.

this is the natch we realise this game hasnt got a hope and prayer against Witcher

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Mass Effect 3 might have fallen off a cliff, which accounts for Shepard's drop between 2013 and 2015. Mass Effect 2's results this contest plug into the 2015 stats quite nicely.

I don't think 39% on MGS3 was a fluke. MGS3's match against BioShock the previous round was the obvious fluke because BioShock benefited from THREE rallies.

that entire contest is fraudulent due to undertale fangirls. Too many inconsistencies like mario rpg randomely becoming a beast

@ShortReplies It means how much each game would score against the strongest one of the division. For example Dark Souls has 50 since if it would go against iself it would score 50-50 and Hotline Miami has 17. That means that Dark Souls-Hotline Miami match would end around 83-17

So checked the results. As expected obviously.

I'm thinking Divinity is probably not as weak as I thought, but unless that rally did way more than I think, I'm not liking my NieR pick in round 3 too much.

Somehow these results give me more confidence in Nier, but maybe because I feel like Divinity should be stronger than Rayman since it's RPG vs. platformer. Also maybe because I hear more about Divinity.

Rayman struggled with an indie game in Round 1. There's a limit to how strong it can be. People still thought GSC could beat Majora's Mask in 2010 even after GSC barely exceeded MM's result on Chrono Cross against ADVANCE WARS.