Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1346

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6136-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-metal-gear-solid-v-vs-dark

For reference, this was 2015. The rematch is gonna get ugly.

also isn't Yakuza 0 a 2017 game too?

yet another decently strong game to add to that year.

Repeating something the guys said in the last Show episode:

The original GSC would put 73% on Bayonetta 2, based on 2015 stats.

Nier Automata just did 68% on Bayonetta 2.

So Nier Automata loses to GSC, but only loses to HGSS if you assume the vast majority of voters either played HGSS, or played GSC and consider HGSS as the same game.

HG/SS is much less likely to be considered a G/S/C proxy than P4G is to be considered a P4 proxy.

current Bayonetta 2 is likely to be stronger too

And that's if you assume the fact Pokemon just released its most divisive mainline game ever doesn't affect the series' popularity. It might. Or that we are just too distant from the last Pokemon craze and it's back to Earth. Which is also possible.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Imo HGSS needs its voters to see it as "basically GSC" even more than P4G needs them to see it as "basically P4".

The casual voter did not even consider playing HGSS.

P4G is different its a definitive version of the same game. Much like Royal.

Do people see OoT 3D as OoT n64? not really.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Repeating something the guys said in the last Show episode:

The original GSC would put 73% on Bayonetta 2, based on 2015 stats.

Nier Automata just did 68% on Bayonetta 2.

So Nier Automata loses to GSC, but only loses to HGSS if you assume the vast majority of voters either played HGSS, or played GSC and consider HGSS as the same game.

I suppose if you have HeartGold to perform as a 100% proxy for G/S/C, it's ok to talk up the possibility of HeartGold > Skyrim.

But anything less, and you have to consider NieR to be a threat.

No one is gonna point out the Nier-Bayo potential for considerable SFF? Again?

MechanicalWall posted...

No one is gonna point out the Nier-Bayo potential for considerable SFF? Again?

we've gotta stop blaming SFF when a game exceeds expectations

ZeldaTPLink posted...

And that's if you assume the fact Pokemon just released its most divisive mainline game ever doesn't affect the series' popularity. It might. Or that we are just too distant from the last Pokemon craze and it's back to Earth. Which is also possible.

HGSS is going to be a strong game based on HGSS...ie a good remake of a classic pokemon game.

Basically HGSS will be judged on it's own merits...and that is basically the srongest Pokemon game last Decade. Is it going to be gen 1 and 2 level? not even close. But it doesn't need to be.

LeonhartFour posted...

we've gotta stop blaming SFF when a game exceeds expectations

If people are gonna claim things like massive Witcher-ME3 overlap then you don't get to ignore the fact that Nier and Bayo were literally made by the same devs and play very similarly

I definitely have to admit I underrated Nier: Automata severely in my original rankings. I thought it would be a close race against Bayonetta 2 and had it losing to Divinity: Original Sin 2 of all things. Looking at how hard it crushed Bayo 2, which a lot of people consider one of the best action games ever, it might even have Division winning potential against Skyrim. Maybe. Small chance. Please don't twist my words into me saying it will definitely beat Skyrim like with Mario Kart 8.

I didn't claim it!

my first resort is never "oh wow some weird SFF must have occurred"

it's to wonder if I overestimated the loser or underestimated the winner

Automata and Bayonetta might be made by the same people but they don't cater to the same audience, at least not entirely

Witcher/ME3 overlap is going to be much more significant than Nier/Bayonetta overlap. The company doesn't matter as much as the fanbases they reach. Nier is a Square-published, multiplatform (except for Switch) Action RPG. Bayonetta 2 is a Nintendo exclusive pure action game.

MechanicalWall posted...

No one is gonna point out the Nier-Bayo potential for considerable SFF? Again?

Female protagonist SFF?

I mean, they aren't even on the same consoles, for one.

Platinum has a very dedicated audience who are gonna pick up all their games. Nier obviously has a wider reach but there is a lot of overlap in core audiences. I can see a lot of people who have played both conceding the GotD title to Nier.

I'm just saying, people claim SFF in a LOT more dubious cases than this one

LeonhartFour posted...

I didn't claim it!

my first resort is never "oh wow some weird SFF must have occurred"

it's to wonder if I overestimated the loser or underestimated the winner

Automata and Bayonetta might be made by the same people but they don't cater to the same audience, at least not entirely

I feel like they both have the same appeal of technical, over the top action, but the fact that Bayonetta 2 is exclusively on Nintendo consoles while Nier Automata is on exclusively not Nintendo consoles results in less overlap than you'd expect.

MechanicalWall posted...

I'm just saying, people claim SFF in a LOT more dubious cases than this one

they do and I call them out for those instances too!

we have no data on Automata before this year so it's kinda silly to start blaming SFF when we don't even know how strong it is in the first place

MechanicalWall posted...

No one is gonna point out the Nier-Bayo potential for considerable SFF? Again?

Considerable? Theyre not only on two different platforms but also are two different games. Nier sor of has that flashy Bayo gameplay but its no way near as good. The game itself is completely different. Its a story driven narrative action RPG. Bayo is a straight up action game.

All I'll say is that people who are hyping Nier up based on its R1 performance might end up slightly disappointed. I didn't take it over Pokemon and it hasn't changed my mind yet

MechanicalWall posted...

All I'll say is that people who are hyping Nier up based on its R1 performance might end up slightly disappointed. I didn't take it over Pokemon and it hasn't changed my mind yet

well there's no reason for it to change your mind when HG/SS got to beat up on a patsy

MechanicalWall posted...

Platinum has a very dedicated audience who are gonna pick up all their games. Nier obviously has a wider reach but there is a lot of overlap in core audiences. I can see a lot of people who have played both conceding the GotD title to Nier.

I'm just saying, people claim SFF in a LOT more dubious cases than this one

Skyrim/Witcher 3 isn't dubious

You're talking about 2 Massively popular WRPG's that sold about 50 Million between them

Gall posted...

Which is why Skyrim will be losing to FF14.

Be still my beating heart. One of the most criminally underrated games beating the second most overrated game?

Never mind I think I mistook what Mechanical said in the last post so I deleted my response. Sorry.

As far as the indieometer goes Night in the Woods is gonna be pretty low, I certainly won't argue that.

Still, it's gonna take more than beating up on a Platinum stablemate for me to go 'damn Nier's crazy'. R2 can certainly change my mind!

LeonhartFour posted...

they do and I call them out for those instances too!

we have no data on Automata before this year so it's kinda silly to start blaming SFF when we don't even know how strong it is in the first place

We don't know how strong. But it is strong. Nier was a cult hit that just grew in popularity.

MechanicalWall posted...

All I'll say is that people who are hyping Nier up based on its R1 performance might end up slightly disappointed. I didn't take it over Pokemon and it hasn't changed my mind yet

Maybe maybe not

It was hopeful more than anything

And if were hyping Nier...what about the peopel pre tournament having pokemon getting to the Finals??

Thers more chance of Nier beating Pokemon now than Pokemon sniffing a Final.

MechanicalWall posted...

All I'll say is that people who are hyping Nier up based on its R1 performance might end up slightly disappointed. I didn't take it over Pokemon and it hasn't changed my mind yet

It's honestly a big wildcard. This slipped my mind until now, but I remember there was a lot of vitriol towards Bayonetta 2 being a Nintendo exclusive so I'm wondering if enough of that anger is still kicking around enough to have boosted Nier: Automata's round 1 results.

Nier's performance makes sense to me in light of 2017 beasting this contest.

Heropon_Riki posted...

It's honestly a big wildcard. This slipped my mind until now, but I remember there was a lot of vitriol towards Bayonetta 2 being a Nintendo exclusive so I'm wondering if enough of that anger is still kicking around enough to have boosted Nier: Automata's round 1 results.

I can't imagine so, since it's now on Switch, which has a much higher player base.

Anybody who had Pokemon beating Nier has clearly not been paying attention to any contest results in the last 10 year. This match is so hilariously similar to Majora/GSC that I honestly couldn't believe Pokemon was the board favourite

squexa posted...

Nier's performance makes sense to me in light of 2017 beasting this contest.

Or 2B wrecking house in 2018

I've said before that 2B as a character has reason to potentially be stronger than her game

You made it big when you're in those weird Pornhub sidebar ads

I hope you're right so bad bt

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I can't imagine so, since it's now on Switch, which has a much higher player base.

Bayonetta 2 is a phenomenal action game. Much MUCH better than the first.

But heres the problem...the game runs at locked 720p and looks blurry for the most part. Wii U version ran like s*** in some spots

I love Bayonetta 2. But part of me wishes it was never Nintendo exclusive. Not because i dislike Nintendo...i just think certain games need the best hardware.

MechanicalWall posted...

I've said before that 2B as a character has reason to potentially be stronger than her game

You made it big when you're in those weird Pornhub sidebar ads

I mean, on the subject of overlapping fanbases, Pornhub and Gamefaqs probably aren't too far removed.

pjbasis posted...

I hope you're right so bad bt

I wouldnt hope anything when it comes to him

Heropon_Riki posted...

I mean, on the subject of overlapping fanbases, Pornhub and Gamefaqs probably aren't too far removed.

If it were a Venn diagram GFaqs' entire circle would be sitting inside Pornhub's gigantic one

MechanicalWall posted...

I've said before that 2B as a character has reason to potentially be stronger than her game

You made it big when you're in those weird Pornhub sidebar ads

2 years ago sure. Now Nier is Legit

Also don't wanna spoil...anyone who has Beaten(And full beaten like multiple routes) the game knows about 2B

MechanicalWall posted...

If it were a Venn diagram GFaqs' entire circle would be sitting inside Pornhub's gigantic one

Pornhub is a gigantic sphere...its called Earth.

MechanicalWall posted...

If it were a Venn diagram GFaqs' entire circle would be sitting inside Pornhub's gigantic one

There's a joke in there somewhere...

MechanicalWall posted...

I've said before that 2B as a character has reason to potentially be stronger than her game

You made it big when you're in those weird Pornhub sidebar ads

That is probably right.

Because in 2018, 2B got the title of "one of the only two modern characters that matter in GameFAQs". She beat Ness and got 42% on Bowser.

The other one being Mr. Geralt of Rivia.

So year 2B is a monster.

Just how much better than her game she is is the million dollar question, I think.

MechanicalWall posted...

As far as the indieometer goes Night in the Woods is gonna be pretty low, I certainly won't argue that.

Still, it's gonna take more than beating up on a Platinum stablemate for me to go 'damn Nier's crazy'. R2 can certainly change my mind!

I feel like HGSS has more to prove than Nier this round, since it relies on the assumption that HGSS is close to or at GSC in strength and that's a strong assumption, since I don't think anyone would think that FRLG is anywhere near RBY in strength. Blowing out fodder hardly proves anything as Doom has graciously shown us this round.

LeonhartFour posted...

HG/SS is much less likely to be considered a G/S/C proxy than P4G is to be considered a P4 proxy.

What makes you think that?

Nintendogs posted...

What makes you think that?

Because HG/SS is a full on remake, not just an enhanced port. HG/SS has to be strong on its own merits. I'd imagine there are more people voting for Golden despite never having played it because they liked P4 than people voting for HG/SS because they liked G/S/C.

squexa posted...

I feel like HGSS has more to prove than Nier this round, since it relies on the assumption that HGSS is close to or at GSC in strength and that's a strong assumption, since I don't think anyone would think that FRLG is anywhere near RBY in strength. Blowing out fodder hardly proves anything as Doom has graciously shown us this round.

Unfortunately, Pokemon has Rayman this round, so it's going to be hard to gleam much out of this performance.

Meanwhile, Automata has Divinity, which will give us another read at its strength, albeit through 2015's last place in Hearthstone.

I still hold that Division 8 is the worst division in the bracket, both in terms of average contest strength and in terms of seeding.

All the top seeds (Skyrim Nier and Pokemon) are gonna have trouble proving themselves when their neighboring matches were all so weak and overseeded.

I think Division 7 is giving "weakest division" a run for its money

these games all suck except maybe Dark Souls