Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1346

tgs2 posted...

That's "Losing to NieR" percentages if Skyrim can't break 70%

Nier to win the division?

I'm ok with that.

KamikazePotato posted...

Good news for Last of Us: each update makes it look less likely that it will be upset by Batman.

Bad news for Last of Us: each update makes it look less likely that it beats Dark Souls.

currently D3 needs to be able to get 65.54% on Rocket League for Dark Souls = TLOU

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

LOL

Journey taking down Halo? I'd love to know what drugs you're on, because apparently it's the good stuff

This is coming from the same tool that thought Xenoblade wouldnt break 60% on Overwatch

Don't talk to anyone about taking drugs.

LeonhartFour posted...

currently D3 needs to be able to get 65.54% on Rocket League for Dark Souls = TLOU

Which means Rocket League and Dragonball would need to get what on Last Reward? like 55%? lol they'd both be close to Doubling that game.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Which means Rocket League and Dragonball would need to get what on Last Reward?

Rocket League = 55.25%
Dragon Ball = 53.71%

LeonhartFour posted...

Rocket League = 55.25%
Dragon Ball = 53.71%

lol yeah. Souls is winning the division.

Only thing I know about those VLR games is that 999 has a small cult following and the third game was a disappointment. Also apperantly they're better on phones or something than console?

LeonhartFour posted...

Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA – 37.26%
Super Meat Boy – 35.16%

This would have been such a big upset.

Sens-Hangar_18 posted...

Only thing I know about those VLR games is that 999 has a small cult following and the third game was a disappointment. Also apperantly they're better on phones or something than console?

They're much better on the DS because they ruined the final puzzle in the ports!

But added jump points that let you skip monotonous parts on re-playthroughs,

Virtue's Last Reward is one of the best games of all time

uh..Yakuza is doing really well

has been rising the past updates even

PrinceOfKoopas posted...

They're much better on the DS because they ruined the final puzzle in the ports!

But added jump points that let you skip monotonous parts on re-playthroughs,

As someone likely to start 999 for the first time on the PC version soon, is it really that bad of a deal breaker?

The last puzzle is something that can only truly be replicated with the DS's two screens. It's just not the same in any other format.

Just thinking about it, the stats for this contest should be pretty reliable by the end of it. Besides Zelda over Odyssey, there shouldn't be much Sff

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Time to curse my pre-contest faith in Skyrim for at least the THIRD time.

I think Skyrim is one of the most overhyped games in the bracket. The best I could see it doing is making it to top 8 to lose to Dark Souls. At worst, I'm not even 100% confident it beats Mario Kart 8.

It's gonna depend on whether people see it as voting for Skyrim and it's laundry list of impressive mods, or if they're just voting for the original 2011 base game. And I feel like more people are going to be basing their votes off just the base game without mods which has fallen out of favor in recent years.

Honestly the Mario Kart 8 match-up also kind of depends on if people consider the DLC and the battle mode changes added to the Deluxe Switch port as part of their vote or if they're just voting based on the original release. That makes MK8 vs. Skyrim a really weird and unpredictable match-up since both games could be much better or much worse depending on the psychology of what people think they are voting for.

The Bat over 60% again.

INDIE GAMES THAT WON IN ROUND 2 (1):

Shovel Knight - 50.36% (versus Octopath Traveler)
Shovel Knight - 64.4% (versus Dragon's Dogma)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT LOST IN ROUND 2 (7):

Hollow Knight - 49.58% (versus Final Fantasy XV)
Hollow Knight - 62.81% (versus Tales or Berseria)

Minecraft - 42.35% (versus Marvel's Spider-Man)
Minecraft - 75.71% (versus Dota 2)

Cuphead - 39.74% (versus Grand Theft Auto V)
Cuphead - 68.28% (versus XCOM 2)

Ori and the Blind Forest - 37.74% (versus Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 51.91% (versus Dragon Age: Inquisition)

Stardew Valley - 35.91% (versus Super Mario Galaxy 2)
Stardew Valley - 71.17% (versus Destiny)

Super Meat Boy - 35.16% (versus Sonic Mania)
Super Meat Boy - 68.96% (versus Slay the Spire)

Bastion - 28.09% (versus Dragon Quest XI)
Bastion - 52.25% (versus The Walking Dead)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT WON IN ROUND 1:

Divinity: Original Sin 2 - 69.22% (versus Hearthstone)
Journey - 66.2% (versus Fate/Grand Order)
Rocket League - 51.66% (versus Dragon Ball FighterZ)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT LOST IN ROUND 1 (20):

Celeste - 49.55% (versus Rayman Legends)
Undertale - 46.71% (versus Octopath Traveler)
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 43.47% (versus Nioh)
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night - 40.9% (versus Borderlands 2)
Terraria - 32.31% (versus BioShock Infinite)
Disco Elysium - 31.94% (versus Kingdom Hearts 3)
Slay the Spire - 31.04% (versus Super Meat Boy)
Crypt of the NecroDancer - 28.47% (versus Final Fantasy XIV)
VVVVVV - 28.28% (versus Fallout 4)
Dead Cells - 27.49% (versus Metal Gear Solid V)
What Remains of Edith Finch - 25.35% (versus Final Fantasy XV)
The Witness - 22.61% (versus Yakuza 0)
FTL: Faster Than Light - 22.23% (versus Persona 4 Golden)
Baba is You - 20.73% (versus Grand Theft Auto V)
The Stanley Parable - 20.6% (versus Fallout: New Vegas)
Night in the Woods - 18.04% (versus Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver)
Hotline Miami - 17.01% (versus Dark Souls)
Subnautica - 16% (versus Skyrim)
INSIDE - 13.94% (versus DOOM)
Return of the Obra Dinn - 12.75% (versus Super Mario Galaxy 2)

Heropon_Riki posted...

I think Skyrim is one of the most overhyped games in the bracket. The best I could see it doing is making it to top 8 to lose to Dark Souls. At worst, I'm not even 100% confident it beats Mario Kart 8.

It's gonna depend on whether people see it as voting for Skyrim and it's laundry list of impressive mods, or if they're just voting for the original 2011 base game. And I feel like more people are going to be basing their votes off just the base game without mods which has fallen out of favor in recent years.

Honestly the Mario Kart 8 match-up also kind of depends on if people consider the DLC and the battle mode changes added to the Deluxe Switch port as part of their vote or if they're just voting based on the original release. That makes MK8 vs. Skyrim a really weird and unpredictable match-up since both games could be much better or much worse depending on the psychology of what people think they are voting for.

Err, no one ever considers an Elder Scrolls game as, “just the base game with no mods” unless that game just came out within the last year.

I think people will just base it on whatever they felt when they played it for the first time, mods or no mods. This is NostalgiaFAQs after all.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Just thinking about it, the stats for this contest should be pretty reliable by the end of it. Besides Zelda over Odyssey, there shouldn't be much Sff

Theres always SFF. In every match. Theres always someone who has played both and likes both but prefers one over the other

If we use this logic. Theres going to be significant SFF in matches like Xenoblade/FE, Skyrim/Witcher and even something like DQXI/BOTW because DQXI gets a huge ton of support from its switch fanbase.

Sens-Hangar_18 posted...

Only thing I know about those VLR games is that 999 has a small cult following and the third game was a disappointment. Also apperantly they're better on phones or something than console?

I really liked Zero Time Dilemma, although I know it's pretty divisive. Even I still think it's not quite as good as 999 or VLR. 999 is best on DS but not really ruined by ports. VLR doesn't use the dual screens or 3D effects of the 3DS in any especially meaningful way so is probably best to just play on whatever is most convenient. Zero Time Dilemma meanwhile I would definitely recommend on console or PC over 3DS/Vita since the graphics are significantly improved.

<i>At worst, I'm not even 100% confident it beats Mario Kart 8.</i>

Then you're delusional.

Yes Skyrim is overhyped pre tournament. But only to a degree of "can it beat Souls and Witcher?"

Not It may lose to f***ing Mk8. Cmon now. Thats Black Turtle Talk...i.e absolute drivel.

redrocket posted...

Err, no one ever considers an Elder Scrolls game as, “just the base game with no mods” unless that game just came out within the last year.

In terms of playing it, no. In terms of voting for it in this contest and the way it's listed as just Skyrim, I'm not really sure to be honest. I think you're going to see some of both.

And yo, what is up with Yakuza 0 and MGSV being even this close? Really thought this would be a blow-out, even when considering MGSV wouldn't have the same respect today it had in 2015.

huh that was a 14 vote cut for Yakuza

and yes the talk of Skyrim losing to MK8 was always insane

MK8 couldn't even get 60% on Uncharted 4

dude Yakuza is legit after all

we all underestimated because the characters were fodder in these contests

Which is why Skyrim will be losing to FF14.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

<i>At worst, I'm not even 100% confident it beats Mario Kart 8.</i>

Then you're delusional.

Yes Skyrim is overhyped pre tournament. But only to a degree of "can it beat Souls and Witcher?"

Not It may lose to f***ing Mk8. Cmon now. Thats Black Turtle Talk...i.e absolute drivel.

People love Mario Kart 8. Tbh I see a lot more glowing praise for Kart 8 on this site than I do base game Skyrim. When it as announced for Switch for instance the general sentiment seemed to be "what's even the point of playing Skyrim without mods? It's so boring on its own." Although again, I'm still not sure how people are going to vote for Skyrim with regards to whether modded versions count.

Persona 5 vs. Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
Registered Vote Result:
Persona 5 - 6521 (71.52%)
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag - 2597 (28.48%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Persona 5 - 5558 (70.01%)
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag - 2381 (29.99%)

Sonic Mania vs. Super Meat Boy
Registered Vote Result:
Sonic Mania - 5960 (65.35%)
Super Meat Boy - 3160 (34.65%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Sonic Mania - 5052 (63.68%)
Super Meat Boy - 2882 (36.32%)

Portal 2 vs. Kingdom Hearts III
Registered Vote Result:
Portal 2 - 5724 (62.78%)
Kingdom Hearts III - 3394 (37.22%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Portal 2 - 4874 (61.42%)
Kingdom Hearts III - 3062 (38.58%)

Animal Crossing: New Leaf vs. Red Dead Redemption 2
Registered Vote Result:
Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 3915 (42.93%)
Red Dead Redemption 2 - 5204 (57.07%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 3265 (41.14%)
Red Dead Redemption 2 - 4672 (58.86%)

No huge splits today. The largest split was with Animal Crossing, which did about 1.8% better with registered users. Persona 5, Sonic Mania, and Portal 2 all did better with registered users.

This was our first actual rally-free day since the first day of round 2 as the percentage of registered users was similar to the first day of round 2.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

Sharinnegan posted...

dude Yakuza is legit after all

we all underestimated because the characters were fodder in these contests

In contrast MGS had no fodder characters, except for Quiet.

HaRRicH posted...

And yo, what is up with Yakuza 0 and MGSV being even this close? Really thought this would be a blow-out, even when considering MGSV wouldn't have the same respect today it had in 2015.

#f***onami and Kojima becoming a parody of himself with Death Stranding really soured people.

LeonhartFour posted...

come on at least let everyone be disappointed in Skyrim "only" getting 79% on Journey first...!

I don't think Skyrim will match Witcher's Round 2 percentage. Not even sure if it hangs the tripling, although we have to remember that Sony just gave all PS4 owners Journey for free.

Nintendogs posted...

In contrast MGS had no fodder characters, except for Quiet.

nah Otacon was definitely fodder

wish we could've gotten Gray Fox into a contest when he could've actually done something

Sharinnegan posted...

dude Yakuza is legit after all

we all underestimated because the characters were fodder in these contests

Even the characters didn't even look that bad in the 2018 contest. And Yakuza is one of those series where characters suffer from "generic Japanese guy" syndrome that Ren Amamiya suffers from, so the characters probably underperformed relative to the game.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I don't think Skyrim will match Witcher's Round 2 percentage. Not even sure if it hangs the tripling, although we have to remember that Sony just gave all PS4 owners Journey for free.

I mean, sure, but Journey still isn't really this site's cup of tea. I doubt it turns a near quadrupling down below a tripling.

You guys are forgetting that Skyrim has a date with Pokemon HG/SS in round 4. Does Skyrim get past one of the best Pokemon games?

squexa posted...

Even the characters didn't even look that bad in the 2018 contest. And Yakuza is one of those series where characters suffer from "generic Japanese guy" syndrome that Ren Amamiya suffers from, so the characters probably underperformed relative to the game.

The Yakuza characters were fodder, make no mistake.

Yakuza 0 looks very good here, though MGS5 also looks terrible.

OrangeCrush980 posted...

You guys are forgetting that Skyrim has a date with Pokemon HG/SS in round 4. Does Skyrim get past one of the best Pokemon games?

You mean Nier.

OrangeCrush980 posted...

You guys are forgetting that Skyrim has a date with Pokemon HG/SS in round 4. Does Skyrim get past one of the best Pokemon games?

not sure Pokemon's actually going to make it to that date

To be clear, I have Skyrim winning the Mario Kart 8 match-up. I just think Mario Kart 8 has the potential to beat it depending on people's psychology. Mario Kart 8 is helped by the much better Deluxe version being the one more people have played thanks to being on the Switch.

Imo HGSS needs its voters to see it as "basically GSC" even more than P4G needs them to see it as "basically P4".

The casual voter did not even consider playing HGSS.

Heropon_Riki posted...

I just think Mario Kart 8 has the potential to beat it depending on people's psychology.

maybe on a site not called GameFAQs

one that's populated with casual female gamers perhaps

At any rate, there's no proper gauge of Skyrim's actual power yet, since it's starting against 2 artsy indie games which are basically fodder.

Heropon_Riki posted...

At any rate, there's no proper gauge of Skyrim's actual power yet

I mean it was in 2015 so there's been a proper gauge of Skyrim's power

I'd pick Skyrim as the slight favourite to beat GSC. HGSS has no shot.

HGSS trully has no shot because it won't even be in that match

Nintendogs posted...

The Yakuza characters were fodder, make no mistake.

Yakuza 0 looks very good here, though MGS5 also looks terrible.

They definitely were bad but Kiryu still finished ahead of Joker, Commander Shephard and Leon Kennedy in the xstats. And Kiryu suffers from Japanese Tanner syndrome.

redrocket posted...

Err, no one ever considers an Elder Scrolls game as, “just the base game with no mods” unless that game just came out within the last year.

Why would I give Skyrim credit for dozens of people outside of Bethesda devoting their free time to making the game something other than a bland mess?

LeonhartFour posted...

maybe on a site not called GameFAQs

one that's populated with casual female gamers perhaps

Nintendo fans have a pretty damn big presence on gamefaqs, and it's one of the most popular Nintendo games of last decade, so yeah, it has a chance. At worst it's 40-60 against Skyrim.