Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1346

Whatcha gonna do brother

When Sonic Mania runs wild on you!

Add me to the list of people surprised by sonic mania's performance- I guess the sonic name still carries some weight

Also add me to the list of people pleasantly surprised by Portal 2's performance- it really is an amazing game.

Sonic just managed to rake in a $300 million box-office haul without help from Asia! Of course his name still carries weight.

Lightning Strikes posted...

It's heartening to see people overrating GSC continue into another GotD contest!

GSC just ain't that strong! It'd probably place about where it placed last time. It would get wrecked by BotW, SSBU, SMO, Witcher III, and Skyrim, and I would not be surprised to see it lose to God of War, Dark Souls and Persona 5. If all those were accurate it would place 9th, which is actually slightly below its place of 7th in GotD1 (though it was likely slightly overrated through MM). It's good but it's never been an elite.

Lol there's no world where Gen 2 pokemon loses to god of war, especially on this site.
But of course for voting purposes GSC =/= HGSS

God of War is really, really strong. It did slightly better on Ultimate than GSC would have against Brawl, and that’s assuming no mid-contest increase for Majora’s Mask.

For bonus poll I want Link VS The Easter Bunny.

Lightning Strikes posted...

God of War is really, really strong. It did slightly better on Ultimate than GSC would have against Brawl, and that’s assuming no mid-contest increase for Majora’s Mask.

Why do people assume MM got a mid-contest increase? It looked perfectly legit in 2015.

I think people should be really careful about taking that Ultimate vs. God of War at face value.

Not saying it can't happen, but speaking about it as if it were a contest match should not be done with certainty.

I agree that we should always e careful comparing polls to contests, but so far God of War has looked like it earned it. Additionally, Fallout 3 ended up looking exactly like its 2008 polls against Brawl in the last GotD.

I'm not buying into Dark Souls being strong. I think TLOU has a real shot at taking it down.

Yeah, it looks like it could be up there, but that's still taking some assumptions. They're more often inaccurate even if a good indicator and if they've been right before.

Also, people seem to forget that Ultimate came out roughly a month prior to its GotY performance. It obviously seems weaker in that poll.

We're reacting to big numbers more than anything else right now because we have not much else to go on.

Portal 2's looking real good right now. Portal 2 was such a good game -- my personal AAA-GotD -- but I doubted it getting to the division finals after GLaDOS failed to be the one to prove Mewtwo is a fraud.

Now though...like, I can accept AC:NL beating KH3, but I don't think it would be by much. Portal 2/RDR2 should be interesting.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

So you'd take most of the top 10 games in the bracket to break 45% on Melee? Assuming Ultimate didn't hurt Melee's strength lol.

Well thats the problem with using 5 year old stats, a lot of the games at the top of the 2015 list have likely dropped quite a bit for one reason or another. In GSC's case, this generation of Pokemon seems to have soured a lot of the core group of fanboys, and I don't think the wider appeal for people that visit GameFAQs has increased.

I also think Melee is significantly weaker than past contests too, but thats a topic for another day.

shane15 posted...

I'm not buying into Dark Souls being strong. I think TLOU has a real shot at taking it down.

lol

Laugh all you want but TLOU is one of those games that stuck with people as one of the best games of all time. Dark Souls is known for being hard.

Highest spot I've ever been on the contest leaderboard, hopefully I don't drop too much since I wasn't expecting sonic to actually win today

Advokaiser posted...

Also, people seem to forget that Ultimate came out roughly a month prior to its GotY performance. It obviously seems weaker in that poll.

In this particular case it’s a Smash Bros. game that was also the fastest selling exclusive of all time. It’s no problem.

Lightning Strikes posted...

I agree that we should always e careful comparing polls to contests, but so far God of War has looked like it earned it. Additionally, Fallout 3 ended up looking exactly like its 2008 polls against Brawl in the last GotD.

You don't actually think Fallout 3 was THAT strong in 2010 do you?

shane15 posted...

I'm not buying into Dark Souls being strong. I think TLOU has a real shot at taking it down.

I'm with you, though it's not gonna be easy. People are either overrating Hotline Miami or underrating Crusader Kings II or most likely both. Plus there was some SFF involved with Dark Souls / Hotline Miami (tough action games), while there is virtually zero with the TLOU match.

In the end I'm counting with people opting for the cinematic experience over the masochistic game.

It also has to do with Bloodborne and Dark Souls III both doing really well this round, especially the former. Additionally Dark Souls is definitely more this site's kind of game.

Lightning Strikes posted...

God of War is really, really strong.

No it’s not. It’s just kinda strong.

Site engagement for that game is low. I won a Review of the Month writing about it in September of 2018. To date, it has 430 views. GoW is just not this site’s kind of series.

TLOU gets 54% on Dark Souls in 2015 xstats, btw. It's no slouch.

Of course, Dark Souls may have grown in popularity since it got a Switch release and stayed in the zeitgeist. And TOLU maybe not so much. And I guess Hotline Miami is way better than Crusader Kings?

Though I remain unconvinced of the later point, especially after indies have been exposed left and right in this round, while round 1 blowouts like Doom's and Galaxy's have been shown to be less impressive than we had imagined.

Fire Emblem beats Bloodborne according to 2015 x-stats too

Those games are very much bandwagon-y. They've only grown due to their fans basically evangelizing for them harder than anyone else. Thanks to the nature of the multiplayer and the obscure lore those communities have stuck around way longer than most games' would.

So... between Mass Effect 3/Starcraft II/ Diablo III, which game would be the most anti-voted compared to its predecessors?

'Cause I feel like Diablo III is going to get anti-voted to death against The Last of Us. The latter may very well overperform because of that.

banananor posted...

Add me to the list of people surprised by sonic mania's performance- I guess the sonic name still carries some weight

Also add me to the list of people pleasantly surprised by Portal 2's performance- it really is an amazing game.

I think Portal 2 is really strong honestly. Like, top 8 strong. It has the advantages of a large, enthusiastic fanbase and unlike most other popular games, it doesn't really seem to have a hatebase that will deliberately anti-vote against it. I think it can pull off the upsets with the help of RDR2's "open-world games are all trash" anti-votes and Persona 5's "it's weebs***" anti-votes. The Witcher 3 is another ballpark though which is why I think it will fizzle out in top 8.

Heropon_Riki posted...

I think Portal 2 is really strong honestly. Like, top 8 strong. It has the advantages of a large, enthusiastic fanbase and unlike most other popular games, it doesn't really seem to have a hatebase that will deliberately anti-vote against it. I think it can pull off the upsets with the help of RDR2's "open-world games are all trash" anti-votes and Persona 5's "it's weebs***" anti-votes. The Witcher 3 is another ballpark though which is why I think it will fizzle out in top 8.

Top 8? Hmm, let's see...

1._BotW
2._Skyrim
3._Smash
4._Witcher
5._Odyssey
6._TLoU
7._Souls
8._Portal 2
9._P5
10._GoW

Doesn't sound too bad.

Advokaiser posted...

Top 8? Hmm, let's see...

1._BotW
2._Skyrim
3._Smash
4._Witcher
5._Odyssey
6._TLoU
7._Souls
8._Portal 2
9._P5
10._GoW

Doesn't sound too bad.

I'd swap out GoW for GTAV and put Souls and Witcher at #2 and #3, but other than that it's basically exactly my thoughts.

You're estimating Portal 2 far too much. Kingdom Hearts 3 is getting wrecked for the same reason Meat Boy is - 68% on a trash tier indie game means you're just not very good.

I have Portal making it to Division finals but it would be thanking its lucky stars for making it there

P5 will whoop its ass

Portal 2 is probably top 20, maybe 15 at best, but it can make it to the division finals because it got a favorable draw.

MechanicalWall posted...

I have Portal making it to Division finals but it would be thanking its lucky stars for making it there

P5 will whoop its ass

I still have my doubts about that match-up too tbh. I'm mostly just banking on people hating weebs enough to bring it over the line more than Portal 2 fans alone. Again I think Portal 2's biggest strength is the fact that nobody hates it.

I think Portal 2 can still potentially lose to RDR2, although it would require DIsco Elysium being stronger than Street Fighter V.

...actually though...

(more realistically, it would require New Leaf not being a transitive entity thanks to New Horizons hype, but either way Portal 2 has the clear advantage going in)

Yeah, I think Portal 2 should be considered the favorite, but it isn't a lock.

Judging just by GLaDOS not really looking all that good in 2018 (much less all the results from this division thus far), I think it's far more likely that Portal 2 loses to RDR2 than it does taking down Persona 5.

How Portal is beloved in this site?

Safer_777 posted...

How Portal is beloved in this site?

They're cleverly designed and cleverly written games.

Where isn't Portal beloved?

KamikazePotato posted...

Where isn't Portal beloved?

The 2015 contest

Bakeries.

The original Portal came out at just the right time because it produced so many memes at a time when memes started exploding in popularity.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I think it's far more likely that Portal 2 loses to RDR2 than it does taking down Persona 5.

This was pretty much my mindset pre-contest.

Portal 2/RDR2 should be a 51-49 match, while I'd say P5/Portal 2 should be a 55-45 match.

Leonhart4 posted...

The original Portal came out at just the right time because it produced so many memes at a time when memes started exploding in popularity.

Oh damn, I forgot about the memes. On second thought, maybe people suffering PTSD over "the cake is a lie" will throw a wrench in my "Portal 2 will do well because nobody hates it" theory.

I like how loads of these matches are gonna be 49-51 affairs and then one game just blows the other away.

Quick question for everyone who thinks Witcher 3 is a lock for the final: how much more is Mass Effect 3 worth than Rocket League and/or Journey?

Gall posted...

Quick question for everyone who thinks Witcher 3 is a lock for the final: how much more is Mass Effect 3 worth than Rocket League and/or Journey?

Probably a bunch more? Journey only about doubled a freaking Gacha game, I honestly would take ME3 to at absolute minimum double it, and probably much more than that.

ME3 is much much stronger than Rocket League or Journey. SFFd ME3? Who knows.

I have Witcher 3 making it to top 4 and losing to Dark Souls. Although I hope I'm wrong and I personally will be voting The Witcher 3 in that inevitable match-up. Idk though, Dark Souls is the perfect combo of being very popular in reality and a lot of people thinking it's the niche, hipster underdog vote that makes them very cool and special for liking.

I'd take Rocket League > ME3 and will keep taking picks against ME3 until more evidence comes to say otherwise.