Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1346

Geiki Ganger posted...

I feel like an all-chalk bracket would have done quite well.

Chalk is currently in 40th place on the leaderboard.

Wasn't the Cookie Bracket the first entrant eliminated in the Guru this year?

KamikazePotato posted...

Wasn't the Cookie Bracket the first entrant eliminated in the Guru this year?

It was because Moltar took literally one bracket risk (Horizon > Borderlands) and got it right, so the cookie couldn't win.

Doesn't mean you couldn't still finish on the leaderboard or win prizes with it though!

Ouch I had KH3 going deep because DARKNESS .

I'm less optimistic about Cookie's chances because a chalk bracket has Skyrim beating Witcher, a result I'm reeeeeally not expecting anymore.

If KHIII wasn't considered such a disappointment, and based on this contest's power levels, it very well could have been a top 5 game in this bracket.

Honestly I thought the game was pretty great but nothing was gonna be good enough after 13 years waiting for a new console entry. If it had come out in 2010 I think people would have been much less down on it.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I'm less optimistic about Cookie's chances because a chalk bracket has Skyrim beating Witcher, a result I'm reeeeeally not expecting anymore.

It's still possible. I'm not ready to count Skyrim out just yet.

Wouldn’t surprise me if KH3 is getting antivoted. Not sure if it can win even against, say, animal crossing

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I'm less optimistic about Cookie's chances because a chalk bracket has Skyrim beating Witcher, a result I'm reeeeeally not expecting anymore.

Yeah, it will fall apart eventually. It has Three Houses over Xenoblade. Skyrim over Witcher 3. TLoU over Dark Souls might not be good either. But at least up to this point it's a pretty strong bracket.

Xenoblade will be the death of my bracket. Was doing so well too.

There isn't a better game out there to have your bracket die to than Xenoblade

Every game I'm playing for the next six weeks of quarantine, including FFVII if I get my hands on it, is an appetizer to Xenoblade HD.

Oh man speaking of, I better preorder this damn thing now so I don't wind up empty-handed like with FFVII

Xenoblade is going to completely upend my 'GTAV Division 4 winner' pick which I should be feeling great about after Persona 4 and Three Houses unimpressed. I can't even be mad about it.

Well, I'll finally get to play Xenoblade and see what all the fuss is about in a month or so.

Still doubt it'll be the best game in its own division though!

You doubter

LeonhartFour posted...

Well, I'll finally get to play Xenoblade and see what all the fuss is about in a month or so.

Still doubt it'll be the best game in its own division though!

I mean its 2nd best. But thats the awful Wii version

Imagine what a good version of Xenoblade looks like

If the Wii version is awful, what's the good version? Dolphin emulation?

Clearly, 3DS version

charmander6000 posted...

Pokemon DPP/Metroid Fusion/Fire Emblem: PoR/WWF: No Mercy - GotD

I highly suspect Brawl SFF'd DPP hard that contest, meaning everything in this fourpack is noticeably stronger than the raw stats make them look. Offhand, I'd guess Persona 4's fourpack was the worst of the first GotD.

One particularly weak fourpack that hasn't yet been mentioned is (TJF-less) KOS-MOS/Aqua/Ellie/Quiet from 2018.

On the subject of bonus polls, the problem is that BotW/Majora and a third-place duel are the only possible matches that aren't arbitrary polls for the sake of having them. I'd like to see one bonus poll a day over the six-day (I think) break after Round 3, but I can't think of any matches that wouldn't be more or less arbitrary.

Hollow Knight and Shovel Knight are the two sidescrolling platformer indies with 'Knight' in their names, and both had comparable matches this round, but I don't know that those similarities are enough to stave off the arbitrariness. The same thing goes for ex. a hypothetical match of the two strongest Round 2 losers, or a match between the two weakest games, because there's no consistent and surefire way to determine which games belong in those matches until the contest ends.

LeonhartFour posted...

FFVII won the original Game of the '90s Contest...!

ah yes those 90s games Super Mario Bros. and Halo: Combat Evolved

edit: oh wow smb1 wasn't in it actually. 64 games I guess!

MetalmindStats posted...

The same thing goes for ex. a hypothetical match of the two strongest Round 2 losers, or a match between the two weakest games, because there's no consistent and surefire way to determine which games belong in those matches until the contest ends.

I'd be down for a battle royal consisting of the bottom of each division.

Edith Finch vs. INSIDE vs. Dota 2 vs. Baba Is You vs. Obra Dinn vs. Slay the Spire vs.The Witness vs. Hearthstone

I'd be surprised if these eight games didn't end up ranking at the bottom of each division barring something really unexpected.

Oops lmao I took Animal Crossing today. NintendoFAQs and all that
Oh well I am in the top 300 anyway, still too far to make it into the leaderboard even if I got this one right

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I'd be down for a battle royal consisting of the bottom of each division.

Edith Finch vs. INSIDE vs. Dota 2 vs. Baba Is You vs. Obra Dinn vs. Slay the Spire vs.The Witness vs. Hearthstone

I'd be surprised if these eight games didn't end up ranking at the bottom of each division barring something really unexpected.

I'd say it's really likely FTL and Ghost Trick will end up below Baba!

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I'd be surprised if these eight games didn't end up ranking at the bottom of each division barring something really unexpected.

I think Ghost Trick is going to rank at the bottom of its division when all is said and done, though that's not exactly fair since obligatory GTA antivotes certainly inflated Baba's standing.

Also, I'm not confident Journey will be close enough to Divinity II to prevent F/GO from being Division 8's bottom-feeder. (But hey, Night in the Woods somehow gets to only be the third weakest game in a division either way!)

MetalmindStats posted...

I think Ghost Trick is going to rank at the bottom of its division when all is said and done, though that's not exactly fair since obligatory GTA antivotes certainly inflated Baba's standing.

Also, I'm not confident Journey will be close enough to Divinity II to prevent F/GO from being Division 8's bottom-feeder. (But hey, Night in the Woods somehow gets to only be the third weakest game in a division either way!)

I suppose we will know for sure whether Ghost Trick or Baba will take last place on their side of the division before the second chance downtime. Not so much with Fate vs. Hearthstone, but we will at least have Round 2 data to play with in a couple days.

Here's some mid-contest stats. Interspersed 2015 values with updated values based on their projections versus 2015 entrants (for example, Persona 5 was calculated through 2015 Civilization V). Couldn't get many updated values due to so many new games in this bracket, but hey.

Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 48.64
Skyrim* - 34.93
Persona 5 - 34.69
Pokemon GSC (original)* - 33.68
God of War - 32.07
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 30.81
Grand Theft Auto V* - 29.29
Nier Automata - 28.05
Fallout: New Vegas* - 27.79
Witcher 3* - 27.56
Super Mario Galaxy 2* - 27.47
The Last of Us - 27.36
Mass Effect 2** - 25.58
Bloodborne - 25.18
Batman: Arkham City* - 25.17
Dark Souls* - 25.11
Persona 4 Golden - 25.02
Bioshock Infinite* - 24.49
Horizon Zero Dawn - 23.74
Xenoblade Chronicles* - 23.73
Dragon Quest XI - 23.33
Portal 2* - 23.3
Final Fantasy XV - 23.13
Metal Gear Solid V* - 22.4
Bloodborne* - 21.24
Spider-Man - 20.51
Shovel Knight* - 18.8
Mario Kart 8** - 16.75
Journey* - 14.21
Divinity: Original Sin II - 13.97

*Denotes the game's original 2015 Xstat value. Obviously subject to change.
**Denotes the game's original 2015 Xstat value. Value is highly suspect but couldn't be adjusted further.

I played through Journey since it's free on the PS Store right now. That was... really enjoyable. A cross between a Studio Gibli movie, a Pixar short, and a video game. A very worthwhile two hour experience.

Also the type of thing perfectly suited to overperform on Skyrim DAMMIT

I like those stats because it makes taking Persona 5 to the finals a decent gamble to stand out on

I will be playing Xenoblade Chronicles for the first time.

I loved Xenoblade Chronicles 2.

and now suddenly my Portal to the Division final pick is looking good

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I played through Journey since it's free on the PS Store right now. That was... really enjoyable. A cross between a Studio Gibli movie, a Pixar short, and a video game. A very worthwhile two hour experience.

Also the type of thing perfectly suited to overperform on Skyrim DAMMIT

Most boring game I ever played on my life

You can be emotional with great atmosphere and still have amazing gameplay, like the Ori games. Sadly, Journey doesn't have any gameplay whatsoever

KamikazePotato posted...

Here's some mid-contest stats. Interspersed 2015 values with updated values based on their projections versus 2015 entrants (for example, Persona 5 was calculated through 2015 Civilization V). Couldn't get many updated values due to so many new games in this bracket, but hey.

Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 48.64
Skyrim* - 34.93
Persona 5 - 34.69
Pokemon GSC (original)* - 33.68
God of War - 32.07
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 30.81
Grand Theft Auto V* - 29.29
Nier Automata - 28.05
Fallout: New Vegas* - 27.79
Witcher 3* - 27.56
Super Mario Galaxy 2* - 27.47
The Last of Us - 27.36
Mass Effect 2** - 25.58
Bloodborne - 25.18
Batman: Arkham City* - 25.17
Dark Souls* - 25.11
Persona 4 Golden - 25.02
Bioshock Infinite* - 24.49
Horizon Zero Dawn - 23.74
Xenoblade Chronicles* - 23.73
Dragon Quest XI - 23.33
Portal 2* - 23.3
Final Fantasy XV - 23.13
Metal Gear Solid V* - 22.4
Bloodborne* - 21.24
Spider-Man - 20.51
Shovel Knight* - 18.8
Mario Kart 8** - 16.75
Journey* - 14.21
Divinity: Original Sin II - 13.97

*Denotes the game's original 2015 Xstat value. Obviously subject to change.
**Denotes the game's original 2015 Xstat value. Value is highly suspect but couldn't be adjusted further.

Lol look at zelda, damn.

Seems like Persona 4 did drop a bit of percentage, but it appears to finish above 70%.

Woke up, checked the results. Sonic Mania is strong? I mean did anyone would take it to beat Slay The Spire with 80? Yet the stats say that.

Doesn't sound too surprising. Slay the Spire was always going to be piss weak.

Also Meat Boy was the guru nomination, so it was bound to be overseeded.

Slay the Spire is an indie card game roguelike, I think?

You can't do much worse than it imo.

Btw, do people still have that list of the indies in the bracket? I think it was tennisboy who did? I want to do something with it.

Yeah yo are correct it seems.

Do you mean this list I've been keeping?

INDIE GAMES THAT WON IN ROUND 2 (1):

Shovel Knight - 50.36% (versus Octopath Traveler)
Shovel Knight - 64.4% (versus Dragon's Dogma)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT LOST IN ROUND 2 (6):

Hollow Knight - 49.58% (versus Final Fantasy XV)
Hollow Knight - 62.81% (versus Tales or Berseria)

Minecraft - 42.35% (versus Marvel's Spider-Man)
Minecraft - 75.71% (versus Dota 2)

Cuphead - 39.74% (versus Grand Theft Auto V)
Cuphead - 68.28% (versus XCOM 2)

Ori and the Blind Forest - 37.74% (versus Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 51.91% (versus Dragon Age: Inquisition)

Stardew Valley - 35.91% (versus Super Mario Galaxy 2)
Stardew Valley - 71.17% (versus Destiny)

Bastion - 28.09% (versus Dragon Quest XI)
Bastion - 52.25% (versus The Walking Dead)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT WON IN ROUND 1:

Divinity: Original Sin 2 - 69.22% (versus Hearthstone)
Super Meat Boy - 68.96% (versus Slay the Spire)
Journey - 66.2% (versus Fate/Grand Order)
Rocket League - 51.66% (versus Dragon Ball FighterZ)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT LOST IN ROUND 1 (20):

Celeste - 49.55% (versus Rayman Legends)
Undertale - 46.71% (versus Octopath Traveler)
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 43.47% (versus Nioh)
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night - 40.9% (versus Borderlands 2)
Terraria - 32.31% (versus BioShock Infinite)
Disco Elysium - 31.94% (versus Kingdom Hearts 3)
Slay the Spire - 31.04% (versus Super Meat Boy)
Crypt of the NecroDancer - 28.47% (versus Final Fantasy XIV)
VVVVVV - 28.28% (versus Fallout 4)
Dead Cells - 27.49% (versus Metal Gear Solid V)
What Remains of Edith Finch - 25.35% (versus Final Fantasy XV)
The Witness - 22.61% (versus Yakuza 0)
FTL: Faster Than Light - 22.23% (versus Persona 4 Golden)
Baba is You - 20.73% (versus Grand Theft Auto V)
The Stanley Parable - 20.6% (versus Fallout: New Vegas)
Night in the Woods - 18.04% (versus Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver)
Hotline Miami - 17.01% (versus Dark Souls)
Subnautica - 16% (versus Skyrim)
INSIDE - 13.94% (versus DOOM)
Return of the Obra Dinn - 12.75% (versus Super Mario Galaxy 2)

HaRRicH posted...

Do you mean this list I've been keeping?

INDIE GAMES THAT WON IN ROUND 2 (1):

Shovel Knight - 50.36% (versus Octopath Traveler)
Shovel Knight - 64.4% (versus Dragon's Dogma)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT LOST IN ROUND 2 (6):

Hollow Knight - 49.58% (versus Final Fantasy XV)
Hollow Knight - 62.81% (versus Tales or Berseria)

Minecraft - 42.35% (versus Marvel's Spider-Man)
Minecraft - 75.71% (versus Dota 2)

Cuphead - 39.74% (versus Grand Theft Auto V)
Cuphead - 68.28% (versus XCOM 2)

Ori and the Blind Forest - 37.74% (versus Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 51.91% (versus Dragon Age: Inquisition)

Stardew Valley - 35.91% (versus Super Mario Galaxy 2)
Stardew Valley - 71.17% (versus Destiny)

Bastion - 28.09% (versus Dragon Quest XI)
Bastion - 52.25% (versus The Walking Dead)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT WON IN ROUND 1:

Divinity: Original Sin 2 - 69.22% (versus Hearthstone)
Super Meat Boy - 68.96% (versus Slay the Spire)
Journey - 66.2% (versus Fate/Grand Order)
Rocket League - 51.66% (versus Dragon Ball FighterZ)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT LOST IN ROUND 1 (20):

Celeste - 49.55% (versus Rayman Legends)
Undertale - 46.71% (versus Octopath Traveler)
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 43.47% (versus Nioh)
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night - 40.9% (versus Borderlands 2)
Terraria - 32.31% (versus BioShock Infinite)
Disco Elysium - 31.94% (versus Kingdom Hearts 3)
Slay the Spire - 31.04% (versus Super Meat Boy)
Crypt of the NecroDancer - 28.47% (versus Final Fantasy XIV)
VVVVVV - 28.28% (versus Fallout 4)
Dead Cells - 27.49% (versus Metal Gear Solid V)
What Remains of Edith Finch - 25.35% (versus Final Fantasy XV)
The Witness - 22.61% (versus Yakuza 0)
FTL: Faster Than Light - 22.23% (versus Persona 4 Golden)
Baba is You - 20.73% (versus Grand Theft Auto V)
The Stanley Parable - 20.6% (versus Fallout: New Vegas)
Night in the Woods - 18.04% (versus Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver)
Hotline Miami - 17.01% (versus Dark Souls)
Subnautica - 16% (versus Skyrim)
INSIDE - 13.94% (versus DOOM)
Return of the Obra Dinn - 12.75% (versus Super Mario Galaxy 2)

Yeah I think that will do. Thanks!

KamikazePotato posted...

Here's some mid-contest stats. Interspersed 2015 values with updated values based on their projections versus 2015 entrants (for example, Persona 5 was calculated through 2015 Civilization V). Couldn't get many updated values due to so many new games in this bracket, but hey.

Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 48.64
Skyrim* - 34.93
Persona 5 - 34.69
Pokemon GSC (original)* - 33.68
God of War - 32.07
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 30.81
Grand Theft Auto V* - 29.29
Nier Automata - 28.05
Fallout: New Vegas* - 27.79
Witcher 3* - 27.56
Super Mario Galaxy 2* - 27.47
The Last of Us - 27.36
Mass Effect 2** - 25.58
Bloodborne - 25.18
Batman: Arkham City* - 25.17
Dark Souls* - 25.11
Persona 4 Golden - 25.02
Bioshock Infinite* - 24.49
Horizon Zero Dawn - 23.74
Xenoblade Chronicles* - 23.73
Dragon Quest XI - 23.33
Portal 2* - 23.3
Final Fantasy XV - 23.13
Metal Gear Solid V* - 22.4
Bloodborne* - 21.24
Spider-Man - 20.51
Shovel Knight* - 18.8
Mario Kart 8** - 16.75
Journey* - 14.21
Divinity: Original Sin II - 13.97

*Denotes the game's original 2015 Xstat value. Obviously subject to change.
**Denotes the game's original 2015 Xstat value. Value is highly suspect but couldn't be adjusted further.

Not sure where all of these values came from but there's a lot here that makes no goddamn sense. I'm guessing Witcher 3 is purely its 2015 value based on how low it is, and I'm not sure on what planet Persona 5 is that high up. What did you do to get GSC on there also? I'd take most of the top 10 games over GSC comfortably

Witcher 3 is based on 2015 value, hence the asterisk.

And Persona 5 is based on getting 71.5% on AC: Black Flag, while AC: Black Flag got 56% on Civ 5. Meanwhile, in 2015, Dark Souls only got 66% on Civ 5, hence why Persona 5 is so high in the xstats.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Not sure where all of these values came from but there's a lot here that makes no goddamn sense. I'm guessing Witcher 3 is purely its 2015 value based on how low it is, and I'm not sure on what planet Persona 5 is that high up. What did you do to get GSC on there also? I'd take most of the top 10 games over GSC comfortably

OG Gen 1 and Gen 2 take everything on this list except for BoTW. RBY definitely does, GSC would at worst be top 5 there.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Not sure where all of these values came from but there's a lot here that makes no goddamn sense. I'm guessing Witcher 3 is purely its 2015 value based on how low it is, and I'm not sure on what planet Persona 5 is that high up. What did you do to get GSC on there also? I'd take most of the top 10 games over GSC comfortably

So you'd take most of the top 10 games in the bracket to break 45% on Melee? Assuming Ultimate didn't hurt Melee's strength lol.

squexa posted...

Witcher 3 is based on 2015 value, hence the asterisk.

And Persona 5 is based on getting 71.5% on AC: Black Flag, while AC: Black Flag got 56% on Civ 5. Meanwhile, in 2015, Dark Souls only got 66% on Civ 5, hence why Persona 5 is so high in the xstats.

Civ5 might have declined in strength because of Civ6. Also maybe because Civ5 is not a good game.

I mean the issues Civilization V has today is the same it had in 2015. Persona 5 isn't too far where I thought it would rank pre-contest...

It's heartening to see people overrating GSC continue into another GotD contest!

GSC just ain't that strong! It'd probably place about where it placed last time. It would get wrecked by BotW, SSBU, SMO, Witcher III, and Skyrim, and I would not be surprised to see it lose to God of War, Dark Souls and Persona 5. If all those were accurate it would place 9th, which is actually slightly below its place of 7th in GotD1 (though it was likely slightly overrated through MM). It's good but it's never been an elite.

I moved up to 7th? Cool.

If Nier takes out Pokémon i'll probably pick it up.

pjbasis posted...

3rd place battle should be good. Probably means Odyssey/Ultimate vs Witcher/Souls/Skyrim

I'm all in for this as a bonus poll.