Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1346

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1346-south-division-round-2-kefka-vs-crono

Believe it or not, Kefka was very hyped coming into SC2K3!

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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Nominate Adol from Ys for CBXI

lol kingdom hearts

swirIdude posted...

Nominate Adol from Ys for CBXI

yes nominate someone Vyse the Legend can beat please

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. Mass Effect 3
Registered Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 7088 (78.56%)
Mass Effect 3 - 1934 (21.44%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 7772 (78.10%)
Mass Effect 3 - 2179 (21.90%)

Stardew Valley vs. Super Mario Galaxy 2
Registered Vote Result:
Stardew Valley - 3061 (33.92%)
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 5964 (66.08%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Stardew Valley - 3933 (39.52%)
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 6019 (60.48%)

Fallout: New Vegas vs. Dark Souls III
Registered Vote Result:
Fallout: New Vegas - 4715 (52.26%)
Dark Souls III - 4307 (47.74%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Fallout: New Vegas - 5677 (57.05%)
Dark Souls III - 4274 (42.95%)

Nioh vs. God of War
Registered Vote Result:
Nioh - 2412 (26.73%)
God of War - 6610 (73.27%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Nioh - 2327 (23.38%)
God of War - 7625 (76.62%)

We got another day of rallies, and it looks like they actually had notable effect too. Fallout: New Vegas did almost 5% better with anonymous users, but that was due to a successful rally. I estimated the rally to be around 1000 votes.

Stardew Valley is the only other game that I can say for sure was helped out by the rally, where it did about 5.5% better with anonymous users.

God of War did over 3% better with anonymous users, but these splits aren't large enough to say that God of War got a boost from the rally.

The Witcher 3/Mass Effect 3 has the closest overall split between registered and anonymous users, but Mass Effect 3 in round 1 did about 2% better with registered users. If we assumed a similar split for this match, it would imply The Witcher 3 got a very small boost from the rally, but it requires the rallied votes to favor The Witcher 3 by an even greater margin than our own voters did.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

LeonhartFour posted...

yes nominate someone Vyse the Legend can beat please

Or would that result get reversed...!

swirIdude posted...

Nominate Adol from Ys for CBXI

Adol is not one of the 50 best Ys characters.

snake_5036 posted...

lol kingdom hearts

Lol KH and FFXV

Good to see Gamefaqs not giving games a free pass no matter what franchise they're from

Also while we're at it

lol Skyward Sword as well. Just because.

Might as well Nominate Dana, her name's in the title of the only YS game most people even heard of so she'd probably do better than Adol

Sharinnegan posted...

Might as well Nominate Dana, her name's in the title of the only YS game most people even heard of so she'd probably do better than Adol

Doubt that

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyZoe-r9qb0 (click to expand) 

Trend charts:

Time | Witcher | ME3 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 74.78% | 25.22% | 571 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 76.29% | 23.71% | 3387 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 78.84% | 21.16% | 8947 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 79.38% | 20.62% | 4108 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 78.63% | 21.37% | 6265 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 77.97% | 22.03% | 5288 | (17:00-24:00)

thanks to everyone who helped ME3 win the board vote

Time | Stardew | Galaxy 2 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 32.80% | 67.20% | 567 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 32.29% | 67.71% | 3385 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 35.10% | 64.90% | 8947 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 39.16% | 60.84% | 4106 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 38.07% | 61.93% | 6275 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 34.51% | 65.49% | 5289 | (17:00-24:00)

Looks like the rally had mostly run its course by the time the day vote proper hit and Galaxy 2 was able to recover some.

Time | Vegas | DS3 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 57.12% | 42.88% | 569 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 52.41% | 47.59% | 3387 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 54.24% | 45.76% | 8947 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 53.94% | 46.06% | 4108 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 55.16% | 44.84% | 6265 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 53.08% | 46.92% | 5288 | (17:00-24:00)

Even with the rally, New Vegas doesn't pull away from Dark Souls 3 at any one point in the match.

Time | Nioh | GoW | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 27.07% | 72.93% | 569 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 26.74% | 73.26% | 3385 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 25.83% | 74.16% | 8947 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 26.60% | 73.40% | 4109 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 23.73% | 76.27% | 6266 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 25.60% | 74.40% | 5289 | (17:00-24:00)

GoW finally woke up with the morning vote.

I think I said in the Crew topic that Portal 2 was gonna beat KHIII about as hard as it beat Tomb Raider. Wasn't so far off

Also said that Slay the Spire was omega trash and SMB wasn't in a good spot. That was right on the money, though I didn't think Sonic was gonna throttle it...

Sonic > Meat Boy by this much is the most stunned I've been since Octopath > Undertale. In that situation, we underestimated Octopath...we'll learn more in time with Sonic Mania, but holy moly. This was an upset I took and just kept feeling better and better as we got closer. Ah well, having a pretty rough go this contest. I gave Ys credit but didn't expect it to outdo SMB at all.

I'll be playing Sonic Mania by its match next round and am excited to try it.

Sonic Mania is fantastic and everyone should play it if you have any fondness for Genesis Sonic.

 https://youtu.be/dVVZaZ8yO6o 

This division is actually looking pretty damn good for me, I was worried about the bottom half but I think Portal is looking good to make division finals, unless people are really rating animal crossing...

INDIE GAMES THAT WON IN ROUND 2 (1):

Shovel Knight - 50.36% (versus Octopath Traveler)
Shovel Knight - 64.4% (versus Dragon's Dogma)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT LOST IN ROUND 2 (6):

Hollow Knight - 49.58% (versus Final Fantasy XV)
Hollow Knight - 62.81% (versus Tales or Berseria)

Minecraft - 42.35% (versus Marvel's Spider-Man)
Minecraft - 75.71% (versus Dota 2)

Cuphead - 39.74% (versus Grand Theft Auto V)
Cuphead - 68.28% (versus XCOM 2)

Ori and the Blind Forest - 37.74% (versus Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 51.91% (versus Dragon Age: Inquisition)

Stardew Valley - 35.91% (versus Super Mario Galaxy 2)
Stardew Valley - 71.17% (versus Destiny)

Bastion - 28.09% (versus Dragon Quest XI)
Bastion - 52.25% (versus The Walking Dead)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT WON IN ROUND 1:

Divinity: Original Sin 2 - 69.22% (versus Hearthstone)
Super Meat Boy - 68.96% (versus Slay the Spire)
Journey - 66.2% (versus Fate/Grand Order)
Rocket League - 51.66% (versus Dragon Ball FighterZ)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT LOST IN ROUND 1 (20):

Celeste - 49.55% (versus Rayman Legends)
Undertale - 46.71% (versus Octopath Traveler)
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 43.47% (versus Nioh)
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night - 40.9% (versus Borderlands 2)
Terraria - 32.31% (versus BioShock Infinite)
Disco Elysium - 31.94% (versus Kingdom Hearts 3)
Slay the Spire - 31.04% (versus Super Meat Boy)
Crypt of the NecroDancer - 28.47% (versus Final Fantasy XIV)
VVVVVV - 28.28% (versus Fallout 4)
Dead Cells - 27.49% (versus Metal Gear Solid V)
What Remains of Edith Finch - 25.35% (versus Final Fantasy XV)
The Witness - 22.61% (versus Yakuza 0)
FTL: Faster Than Light - 22.23% (versus Persona 4 Golden)
Baba is You - 20.73% (versus Grand Theft Auto V)
The Stanley Parable - 20.6% (versus Fallout: New Vegas)
Night in the Woods - 18.04% (versus Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver)
Hotline Miami - 17.01% (versus Dark Souls)
Subnautica - 16% (versus Skyrim)
INSIDE - 13.94% (versus DOOM)
Return of the Obra Dinn - 12.75% (versus Super Mario Galaxy 2)

there's rallies?

..

LeonhartFour posted...

Sonic Mania is fantastic and everyone should play it if you have any fondness for Genesis Sonic.

I'll second that

Zen, I advice you... stop "searching" for "rallies".

I'm concerned for your well-being! >_>

never stop searching Zen

unless you're searching for Sonic hentai rallies then please seek help

So Persona 5 vs God of War, who wins?

In other words Nioh vs Black Flag or Binding of Isaac: Aftermath vs Civ 5.

No, post the Sonic ones too. I want to see Ulti and others analyze them in their write-ups.

squexa posted...

So Persona 5 vs God of War, who wins?

In other words Nioh vs Black Flag or Binding of Isaac: Aftermath vs Civ 5.

I'd probably take Persona but who knows. It's peeeling so many layers of fodder...

squexa posted...

So Persona 5 vs God of War, who wins?

In other words Nioh vs Black Flag or Binding of Isaac: Aftermath vs Civ 5.

PErsona 5 gets the job done

Both sort of Sony exclusives but Persona has a bigger pool of fans on this site by being a JRPG

God of War is the sort of game that is going to do really well in a GOTY poll in terms of being that game at that time...but in hindsight its not going to tackle or take down elite tier games.

So what did kh3 have at the freeze that made people think it had a chance?

45% or something like that.

Also RDR2 is doing to AC what GTA did to CUphead. Start off low and just keep rising the f*** up.

So, this Sonic Mania four pack. Could it be one of the fodderiest four packs we've ever seen in a 1v1 contest? I'm racking my mind to think of anything that could rival it in that aspect.

even taking Mega Man into account the Mega Man/Mr. Driller/Ms. Pac-Man/Serious Sam has to be down there

Yay Sonic! It's rare when anything Sonic OVER performs in these contests. Minus the occasional Knuckles upset

LeonhartFour posted...

yes nominate someone Vyse the Legend can beat please

Vyse's win is still one of my favorite moments of these contests!

LeonhartFour posted...

even taking Mega Man into account the Mega Man/Mr. Driller/Ms. Pac-Man/Serious Sam has to be down there

I honestly doubt Ms. Pac-Man is as bad as that match would say, since Ms. Pac-Man would be a less powerful Pac-Man, who already folds like a house of cards to anything old-school.

oh I'm sure Mega Man overperformed on Ms. Pac-Man and I've thought so for years

but there were three different characters Mega Man was capable of scoring 90% on in the same fourpack

eaglesarebeasts posted...

Vyse's win is still one of my favorite moments of these contests!

Only topped by Skies of Arcadia getting its own win.

Skies of Arcadia with the single most incredible board vote of all time

either that or Baldur's Gate had the single worst

Sonic's been overdue for a big showing like this. Mania is amazing and I'm glad it gets to make Round 3 of this contest before getting fodderized by Persona

WHat should be the Bonus Poll?

GOTD 2010's vs Majoras Mask Winner of 2000's

I'd like to see a bunch of bous polls

FF7 vs BOTW
CT vs OoT
Smash Ultimate vs Smash Melee

Its kinda crazy when you consider that one franchise could have game of the decade for three decades in a row.

3rd place battle should be good. Probably means Odyssey/Ultimate vs Witcher/Souls/Skyrim

Yuri_LowelI posted...

WHat should be the Bonus Poll?

GOTD 2010's vs Majoras Mask Winner of 2000's

I'd like to see a bunch of bous polls

FF7 vs BOTW
CT vs OoT
Smash Ultimate vs Smash Melee

Winner vs MM is probably a certainty

I'd love to see Hollow Knight vs Shovel Knight but that's just me.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

CT vs OoT

I feel like I'd rather not "spoil" this

Having an SFF fight between BotW and MM be one of the bonus polls would suck, but I guess it's kinda obligatory.

MechanicalWall posted...

Having an SFF fight between BotW and MM be one of the bonus polls would suck, but I guess it's kinda obligatory.

It might be closer than people think

If BOTW fails to get 55% on MM it shouldn' be in contention of challenging the sites Elite.

pjbasis posted...

I feel like I'd rather not "spoil" this

True. MAybe BOTW vs CT instead.

Ruler_of_this posted...

Its kinda crazy when you consider that one franchise could have game of the decade for three decades in a row.

Well, we don't have a Game of the Decade for the 90s, yet....

FFVII won the original Game of the '90s Contest...!

I feel like an all-chalk bracket would have done quite well.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

So, this Sonic Mania four pack. Could it be one of the fodderiest four packs we've ever seen in a 1v1 contest? I'm racking my mind to think of anything that could rival it in that aspect.

As mentioned before Mega Man's four-pack in 2002 was pretty bad due to the other three opponents. In terms of all four entrants being weakish, off the top of my head we have...

Lara Croft/Kyo/Abe/Chop Chop/ - 2002
Dr. Robotnik/Sin/Master Hand/Kuja - Villains 2005
WCC/The Boss/Nathan Drake/Sandal - 2010
Pokemon DPP/Metroid Fusion/Fire Emblem: PoR/WWF: No Mercy - GotD