Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1345

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

I don't need to "tell myself" anything, we have archived and documented proof directly correlating Extha and Zen's hentai posts to votal spikes. Tifa started stalling the MMX day vote with the FF subreddit rally, and when that dried up, the desparate virgins went to the only other community they could think of

like are you actually capable of giving an honest assessment of what happened

dirty little secret is that the hentai rallies probably didn't do all that much

their impact gets exaggerated just due to the sheer absurdity of someone actually attempting it and you still being triggered by it two years later

probably really only canceled out what MMX rallies did

I was going to read through the stats topics during that match but they haven't been archived yet :(

Catching up:

CProtectionSvce posted...

I'm surprised the P4G rallies didn't seem to help Three Houses at all. You'd think they'd vote for TH too due their similar systems being the new core feature of TH but TH still did better registered than anonymously.

Fire Emblem has skewed strongly towards registered users in (I think) every match this contest and last except Phoenix/Ike and now this match. If anything, Three Houses having such a souped up day vote tells me that the hentai rallies did benefit it over Ori.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

No, but there are times we just gotta apply the smell test, and 60% on SMG2 would strike me as not nearly as powerhouse of a performance as what it's doing right now.

Nor should it. After what we saw with ME2/FO4 earlier this round, it seems safe to say Witcher 3 is SFFing ME3 here.

raptor36000 posted...

ME2 would put up similar numbers.

I'm curious to hear the argument for this.

tgs2 posted...

How much do y'all think Shovel Knight needs on SMO to put it over Stardew Valley for "strongest indie"?

I'm still skeptical about Stardew really being the strongest indie (39.5% on GTAV > 34% on Galaxy 2, for starters). Regardless, I don't think we can make such a comparison thanks to the high likelihood of SFF in Shovel Knight/Mario Odyssey.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

If there were no rallies, he would have won comfortably, before the creepy perverts of the board (Yuri, Zen, etc) took their rally to a subreddit full of neckbeards that have never seen a real naked woman before.

So, are you going to eat that hat yet?

HK is still the strongest indie for me

The argument for me2 putting up similar numbers is PURE sff. Not mild sff like this

me2 is probably worth around 38-40 on witcher 3.

MetalmindStats posted...

If anything, Three Houses having such a souped up day vote tells me that the hentai rallies did benefit it over Ori.

Fire Emblem is Nintendo. It has a naturally good day vote.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

HK is still the strongest indie for me

If FFXV manages to ONLY get tripled by BotW, I'd probably say so to

Yuri_LowelI posted...

The argument for me2 putting up similar numbers is PURE sff. Not mild sff like this

Fair, I misread that post at first. That being said, ME2 being able to put up a similar result against its own sequel is also utterly irrelevant to Yo's point there.

MechanicalWall posted...

If FFXV manages to ONLY get tripled by BotW, I'd probably say so to

hear me out

FFXV gets over 30%

FFXII would get tripled by Ocarina according 2015 x-stats. FFVIII barely gets over 30

If XV breaks 30 on Breath of the Wild consider me VERY impressed

LeonhartFour posted...

like are you actually capable of giving an honest assessment of what happened

dirty little secret is that the hentai rallies probably didn't do all that much

their impact gets exaggerated just due to the sheer absurdity of someone actually attempting it and you still being triggered by it two years later

probably really only canceled out what MMX rallies did

Use your head. What makes more sense, a "rally" in a deserted sub for a game that hasn't had a new release in about 15 years, or a bunch of otaku reddit perverts that are only turned on by exaggerated cartoon t*** and tentacle/furry porn?

Which of these 2 groups seems the most numerous, and most likely to have the free time to vote in a GameFAQs contest?

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Use your head. What makes more sense, a "rally" in a deserted sub for a game that hasn't had a new release in about 15 years, or a bunch of otaku reddit perverts that are only turned on by exaggerated cartoon t*** and tentacle/furry porn?

Which of these 2 groups seems the most numerous, and most likely to have the free time to vote in a GameFAQs contest?

If that's not clear enough, use Board 8 as a sample size, and look at all the forever alone basement dwellers we have

Oh hey, at least you're finally willing to admit Mega Man X did indeed rally first. That's progress.

LeonhartFour posted...

Fire Emblem is Nintendo. It has a naturally good day vote.

Have past Nintendo games this contest really had day votes on this level, though? I might be misremembering, since it's not exactly convenient to check your previous trend charts, but I can't think of another example of a Nintendo game with its highest percentage (of full vote blocs) during the day.

MetalmindStats posted...

Have past Nintendo games this contest really had day votes on this level, though? I might be misremembering, since it's not exactly convenient to check your previous trend charts, but I can't think of another example of a Nintendo game with its highest percentage (of full vote blocs) during the day.

Awakening did it in round 1!

Probably would've done it in round 2 if not for the rally, too, because it did make a marked improvement compared to before.

It's not like Three Houses made a significant leap with the day vote yesterday anyway. It was just notable because a lot of matches don't show much variance.

Oh right, Breath of the Wild's best time was the day vote against Reach as well.

Does Halo still have a good day vote?

Leonhart4 posted...

Oh right, Breath of the Wild's best time was the day vote against Reach as well.

I'm not inclined to read much into this, considering apparent obvious winner antivotes caused Halo of all things to win the board vote there. Fair enough about Awakening, though.

I still think the overall registered/anonymous split provides evidence that Three Houses benefited from the hentai rallies. It's not as though Ori skewed strongly (or at all) towards registered users in the previous round, unlike Phoenix against Ike in 2018 - not to mention the sheer strength of the bracket vote this contest should have given Three Houses a registered user advantage on its own, on top of Fire Emblem's normal trends.

MechanicalWall posted...

Well apparently Journey is free right now on PS+ so I guess it's getting the Freebie Bonus

It's actually free for everyone, PS+ or not.

That Xenoblade prediction seems really low. I hope Fire Emblem can pull off a miracle.

Also, I think everyone is overestimating what Witcher 3 can do slightly. It's like we all forgot SFF existed.

AC might be a well known brand name, but I don't buy for a second that the showing against it would be much better than a showing against some of the bottom games here all things considered.

I'm not saying it can't reach the finals. It could beforehand. Just that I don't think this changes anything.

Woke up checked the resuls.

Back on Leaderboard! I do wonder why though. Eh.

Also either Witcher 3 is that strong or its opponnents are damn weak.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

hear me out

FFXV gets over 30%

Id be shocked if FFXV can manage anywhere near that

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/932981-final-fantasy-xv/75980881

FFXV gets tripled by BotW on a poll in its own freaking board. Yeah yeah low sample size and all, but thats a bad sign for how much people care for it.

squexa posted...

Id be shocked if FFXV can manage anywhere near that

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/932981-final-fantasy-xv/75980881

FFXV gets tripled by BotW on a poll in its own freaking board. Yeah yeah low sample size and all, but thats a bad sign for how much people care for it.

i was joking.

of course it triples FFXV. should get 78-79%

if BOTW only managed 70 it wouldnt be favorite to win

MetalmindStats posted...

I'm not inclined to read much into this, considering apparent obvious winner antivotes caused Halo of all things to win the board vote there. Fair enough about Awakening, though.

I still think the overall registered/anonymous split provides evidence that Three Houses benefited from the hentai rallies. It's not as though Ori skewed strongly (or at all) towards registered users in the previous round, unlike Phoenix against Ike in 2018 - not to mention the sheer strength of the bracket vote this contest should have given Three Houses a registered user advantage on its own, on top of Fire Emblem's normal trends.

Eh, losing the board vote doesn't generally result in you going up in every demographic.

Expect Galaxy 2 to have a good day vote based on these trends too by the way.

Huh, now I'm at 8th place.

Is this contest the first time GTA has ever gotten to Round 3 since 2003?

*wakes up*

...

Dear God...

https://www.reddit.com/r/falloutnewvegas/comments/g24bk5/new_vegas_is_up_for_game_of_the_decade_against/

Yeah this definitely had an affect. Generally on Reddit, only 10% of people (if that) upvote a thread and only 10-15% of that number will comment. Meaning 4000 or so people have seen that thread, and it’s a good bet a lot of them came here to vote.

And I was wondering why New Vegas was looking better when I woke up...

Also Witcher has somehow only gone up since I went to sleep. Obviously it's a godly game in its own right but imagine a lot of that New Vegas spillover helped it

UltimaterializerX posted...

https://www.reddit.com/r/falloutnewvegas/comments/g24bk5/new_vegas_is_up_for_game_of_the_decade_against/

Yeah this definitely had an affect. Generally on Reddit, only 10% of people (if that) upvote a thread and only 10-15% of that number will comment. Meaning 4000 or so people have seen that thread, and it’s a good bet a lot of them came here to vote.

Looks to be ~800 votes

Well, I feel better about not getting the upset with DS3, given Fallout needed a bulls*** rally to win

So a rally but it seems that it doesn't affect much eh?

New Vegas was going to win anyway. This just gave it breathing room.

What's this about a FO:NV rally?

HaRRicH posted...

What's this about a FO:NV rally?

New Vegas got a Reddit rally when it was already winning. It probably doesn't change the result. It just widens the margin.

HaRRicH posted...

What's this about a FO:NV rally?

Ulti's daily effort to make us talk about him.

Without knowing the actual trends offhand, it's looking like some of that rally spillover helped Witcher 3, Stardew, and God of War, which makes sense.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Well, I feel better about not getting the upset with DS3, given Fallout needed a bulls*** rally to win

It was already going to win

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Ulti's daily effort to make us talk about him.

Keep this type of b****ing in the Discord where it belongs. No one wants it here, because this is supposed to be a super chilled out topic. Thanks.

I must have missed something, since I've been here from day one and the csd has been anything but chill for the majority of its existence.

FFDragon posted...

I must have missed something, since I've been here from day one and the csd has been anything but chill for the majority of its existence.

We've chilled out considerably from our peak!

I will give you that much.

FFDragon posted...

I must have missed something, since I've been here from day one and the csd has been anything but chill for the majority of its existence.

It hasn’t been what you’re describing for years now.

Just love it when the biggest manchild on the board tries to tell people to "chill out"

there were rallies for new vegas yesterday night too on the fallout and fnv subreddits

https://www.reddit.com/r/Fallout/comments/g24kfd/fallout_new_vegas_is_up_for_game_of_the_decade/

Stardew Valley is getting favored by these reddit rallies. I don't think the Fallout fanbase over there gives a s*** about Mario Galaxy 2

Leonhart4 posted...

New Vegas was going to win anyway. This just gave it breathing room.

Pretty much, of the now ~1000 vote gain from this match, New Vegas has gained at most a net 400 votes from this so instead of it being a 52% match it's a 54% match.

That's what makes rallying so difficult, you're always going to have a minority cancel some of the work you've done.

Guys can we just post this quote in response to anything BT says because I'm still laughing about it after seeing it last night:

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

What possible reason do you have for saying this? This is the most random out-of-your-ass claim I've seen here in a while.

I'm still waiting for him to eat his hat.

Man people HATE Mass Effect 3. It’s a shame.