Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1345

Yuri_LowelI posted...

SMG2 will be lucky to hit 40.

You seem very sure about it, LOL, i disagree.

KamikazePotato posted...

http://thengamer.com/xstats/

Thank you :)

KamikazePotato posted...

Hey, I said the same thing in the Crew topic pre-match so I'm not using revisionist history!

Witcher is very strong, and could upend Skyrim, but there are caveats with its performances. Its opponents may have brand names but I don't trust Assassin's Creed Odyssey and Mass Effect 3 to do well at all against games people actually care about. With Mass Effect 3 especially you end up with a case of Revered WRPG vs. Extremely Easy to Anti-Vote WRPG.

W3 has that RESPEK advantage vs Skyrim, I now think I'd rather see W3 vs Dark Souls. if W3 murders SMG2 then let's just skip to the finals the following day I say

Team Rocket Elite posted...

If nothing else Andromeda ripped the wound open again.

Or the votals are lower and ME is less relevant.

people don't hate on originals just because of Andromeda. Thats absolutely stupid

FAct is People on here 5 years ago don't come on here anymore. MAss Effect fans from the 360 generation probably don't visit Gamefaqs anymore.

Quick question, how does Witcher 3 fare against Smash Ultimate?

ShortReplies posted...

You seem very sure about it, LOL, i disagree.

I mean it probably still might. I'm just saying SMG2 is gonna need to perform very well to hit that mark.

That being said, I still want to see how Witcher 3 does against Galaxy 2 because we rarely see Western games give Nintendo games the business. Even Skyrim could barely beat Metroid Prime.

raptor36000 posted...

Quick question, how does Witcher 3 fare against Smash Ultimate?

Probably an easy win.

raptor36000 posted...

Quick question, how does Witcher 3 fare against Smash Ultimate?

Probably 52-48 either way. I don't rate Ultimate at all. The game is a pure Hypejob for Character reveals now.

raptor36000 posted...

Quick question, how does Witcher 3 fare against Smash Ultimate?

At this rate, it's probably pretty close. I'll say 45% on Smash, and I'd put it at around 40% on BotW

Yuri_LowelI posted...

SMG2 will be lucky to hit 40.

If galaxy hits anywhere close to 40 against witcher then BoTW will destroy it.

Those 2015 x-stats have ME3 about equal to Witcher 3

Taking that with the MASSIVE grain of salt required here considering how ME3's first round went, you either have to believe ME3 went down INSANELY since 2015 (and considering how good ME2 has looked I don't see any particular reason to believe that), or you have to concede that Witcher has become a beast in its own right.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

At this rate, it's probably pretty close. I'll say 45% on Smash, and I'd put it at around 40% on BotW

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7473-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year-final-final-vote

SSBU isn't that strong.

ME3's first round opponent was Undertale. It was impossible to adjust.

Leonhart4 posted...

That being said, I still want to see how Witcher 3 does against Galaxy 2 because we rarely see Western games give Nintendo games the business. Even Skyrim could barely beat Metroid Prime.

Metroid Prime would be #2 or #3 in this bracket and easily wallop SMG2.

I think the biggest example we've had of a Western Game giving a Nintendo game a beatdown was SKyrim in the GOTY polls. Then again..it was s***eward Sword.

MechanicalWall posted...

Those 2015 x-stats have ME3 about equal to Witcher 3

Taking that with the MASSIVE grain of salt required here considering how ME3's first round went, you either have to believe ME3 went down INSANELY since 2015 (and considering how good ME2 has looked I don't see any particular reason to believe that), or you have to concede that Witcher has become a beast in its own right.

Witcher 3 was also a brand new game in 2015. It lost cleanly to MGS2.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Probably 52-48 either way. I don't rate Ultimate at all. The game is a pure Hypejob for Character reveals now.

Is it rly pure character reveal pr0n now? I played it once and seemed pretty fun

raptor36000 posted...

Quick question, how does Witcher 3 fare against Smash Ultimate?

For it to be threatening BotW, probably 60+%? I would rank both Ultimate and SMO over Galaxy 2.

It's actually a close 52-53% win for Witcher in reality.

I don't think you can at all compare 2015 Witcher to today. Not only the the games have a surge of popularity recently, the Netflix series really put it on the map

Ok so this site is not making any sense, i put Witcher 3 against Mass Effect 3 to see if results are the same as we get and it gave me Witcher 3 wins by 51% LOL it seems broken calculation xD

60-40 is how I believe Witcher 3 Vs. Galaxy 2 will go.

Witcher won't go far above that, #itsfreakingMario

I wrote a 5300 word review for Doom Eternal, if you honesty want my opinion: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/ps4/241065-doom-eternal/reviews/170233

The main thing is you have to play Doom 2016 first. Doom 2016 is a good "babby's first Doom game" kind of experience. Eternal is meant for series vets who already know what they're doing, even on Easy.

Sens-Hangar_18 posted...

Is it rly pure character reveal pr0n now? I played it once and seemed pretty fun

No, Yuri has no idea what he's talking about. Ultimate is very clearly the #2 game in the bracket by a margin. #3 is between Witcher and Skyrim, though I'm leaning Witcher now

Leonhart4 posted...

Witcher 3 was also a brand new game in 2015.

Yes it was, but some games get weaker as time goes on, and some get stronger.

Witcher is very obviously one of the biggest examples of the latter

New Vegas appears safe.

Side note: There are some damn freaking boring parts of FF8. I'm in disc 2 in the remake and it's a struggle.

MechanicalWall posted...

Yes it was, but some games get weaker as time goes on, and some get stronger.

Witcher is very obviously one of the biggest examples of the latter

Well yes, that's the point. I'm saying don't make much of its 2015 X-Stat number.

KamikazePotato posted...

ME3's first round opponent was Undertale. It was impossible to adjust.

Would it be less messy to just assume a ME3 doubling pre-rally and to assume it's real strength was the ~15-20% it was putting on RBY and Melee with registered users?

Mass Effect 3 has no relevance to the 2015 stats due to having no non-Undertale results to draw from.

If you want an example of what the stats can produce in a more stable setting:

Persona 4 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g)
Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60.
Persona 4 wins with 51.11% of the vote!

And that's with both these games being on opposite ends of the bracket and multiple adjustments having to be made around rallies and SFF.

2020 Witcher 3 would probably 60-40 2015 Witcher. That game was under everyone's radar when it came out

tgs2 posted...

Would it be less messy to just assume a ME3 doubling pre-rally and to assume it's real strength was the ~15-20% it was putting on RBY and Melee with registered users?

Assume a doubling on what? Undertale has no "base value" in 2015.

Leonhart4 posted...

Well yes, that's the point. I'm saying don't make much of its 2015 X-Stat number.

I'm only using it as a point of reference for its growth, which I think will be one of the more interesting stories of this contest.

MechanicalWall posted...

Those 2015 x-stats have ME3 about equal to Witcher 3

Taking that with the MASSIVE grain of salt required here considering how ME3's first round went, you either have to believe ME3 went down INSANELY since 2015 (and considering how good ME2 has looked I don't see any particular reason to believe that), or you have to concede that Witcher has become a beast in its own right.

There are a lot of factors involved:

• Witcher had a massive boost.
• ME3 (specifically) has had every reason to fall in strength these 5 years.
• ME3 being a divisive, anti-vote magnet

Hmm... Probably more, but these are the ones off the top of my head.

tgs2 posted...

Would it be less messy to just assume a ME3 doubling pre-rally and to assume it's real strength was the ~15-20% it was putting on RBY and Melee with registered users?

I tried to do something similar to this and the result is what you see. Outside of arbitrarily hacking off % points I couldn't do much about ME3 that year.

Guarantee CDPR drops Cyberpunk in-depth gameplay the same day as finals.

Geraldo: leave Link to me

Advokaiser posted...

ME3 (specifically) has had every reason to fall in strength these 5 years.

I don't really believe there's any actual reason to think this considering ME2 hasn't really gone down. If anything, Andromeda had a lot of people going 'well damn ME3 was actually pretty damn good in retrospect'

Also I'm curious, when people say we're downplaying witcher's performances in these 2 rounds, what would a satisfactory response be? It's already considered a favorite for the final and top 3 seed overall, its not like its being lowballed. Or is the expectation to put it at the same level as Botw from this?

MechanicalWall posted...

I don't really believe there's any actual reason to think this. If anything, Andromeda had a lot of people going 'well damn ME3 was actually pretty damn good in retrospect'

You'd think that would be the case, but in actuality I don't think it's ever panned out this way in a contest setting. A new entrant in a series bombing just hurts the rest of the series. It makes people question their faith in the series more than it makes people appreciate the good ole' times.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I wrote a 5300 word review for Doom Eternal, if you honesty want my opinion: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/ps4/241065-doom-eternal/reviews/170233

The main thing is you have to play Doom 2016 first. Doom 2016 is a good "babby's first Doom game" kind of experience. Eternal is meant for series vets who already know what they're doing, even on Easy.

Awesome. Thanks.

raptor36000 posted...

It's already considered a favorite for the final and top 3 seed overall, its not like its being lowballed. Or is the expectation to put it at the same level as Botw from this?

It wasn't considered a favorite for the final for the longest time, most thought it would lose to Skyrim, and a decent amount of people thought it wouldn't even make it out of its division.

KamikazePotato posted...

You'd think that would be the case, but in actuality I don't think it's ever panned out this way in a contest setting. A new entrant in a series bombing just hurts the rest of the series. It makes people question their faith in the series more than it makes people appreciate the good ole' times.

Sonic

KamikazePotato posted...

You'd think that would be the case, but in actuality I don't think it's ever panned out this way in a contest setting. A new entrant in a series bombing just hurts the rest of the series. It makes people question their faith in the series more than it makes people appreciate the good ole' times.

So do you think ME2 is weaker in this contest

I'm skeptical of ME2's ability to get the job done, yes. It's Round 1 result against RE7 is still a bit iffy, and while the Fallout 4 result looked much better I'm taking it with a grain of salt for the same reason I'm taking Witcher 3's current result with a grain of salt.

I think FO4 was just bad.

Here's a fun question would FFXV beat ME3 here?
It would be a battle of fanbase antivoting I think.
Because Botw is going beat FFXV by a lot more than witchers beating ME3 with here.

raptor36000 posted...

Also I'm curious, when people say we're downplaying witcher's performances in these 2 rounds, what would a satisfactory response be? It's already considered a favorite for the final and top 3 seed overall, its not like its being lowballed. Or is the expectation to put it at the same level as Botw from this?

The problem lies in the fact that Witcher's opponents have every reason to make it overperform. Heck, even SMG2 might be also weak (as we're seeing here) to make matters more fishy.

We may have to wait until it faces off against Persona 5 to know its true potential.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7983-division-2-round-2-mass-effect-2-vs-fallout-4
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6205-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year-final-vote

Witcher 3 is so screwed.

I guess my question is, for the Witcher skeptical people here, are you skeptical of it beating Zelda, or skeptical of it making the finals?

Because I agree with you on the former for sure, but the latter? Still? I feel like a LOT is being demanded here

I mean, Witcher 3 has looked great, but we're just making guesses about how strong most of these games are.

I think it should definitely reach the finals(and deserves to).
I dont see any situation where it beats Zelda without a rally, and even there it might get counter rallied.
Also Persona 5 vs witcher should be interesting.(Played Vanilla and currently playing Royal, I rate p5 slightly higher)
I think time has made a lot of people forget how mediocre witcher's combat really is. Everything else was excellent though.