Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1344

Something I was thinking about on my drive home from work after breath of the wild wins should it get a 1 on 1 match with ocarina of time

Makes more sense thematically for BotW to get a bonus match against MM tbh. Battle of the 2 GotD winners.

Nanis23 posted...

Yeah this is not looking good at all for P4
I expected more, much more from it

It’s a game on the Vita.

I have Xenoblade winning this division! Looks like it just might.

If P4G has comparable strength to "plain" P4, the lol x-stats suggest GTA still probably takes that match.

UltimaterializerX posted...

It’s a game on the Vita.

If people were just voting based on the Vita version, it would be getting killed because a very small percentage of the site has played it. It's just a Persona 4 proxy.

As someone who has p4 over xenoblade in the finals here I am annoyed that I took p4. I think that may have a chance of being the finals but reverse

The 2 games per series rule is bulls***. Specially when stuff like 3D World is missing and a bunch of indie fodder was included. Even stuff like Revengeance and KI: Uprising didn't make it.

i have 3H winning the division and definitely wish I had taken Xenoblade

GTAV keeps rising and PS4/RDR keeps getting closer. GTAV may make the division finals afterall.

is there anything to suggest GTAV is actually stronger than RDR?

Sharinnegan posted...

is there anything to suggest GTAV is actually stronger than RDR?

LOL x-stats certainly overestimate the gap, but 43% on Super Mario RPG in 2015 is just as certainly better than 41% on Shadow of the Colossus. There's a few more debatable arguments like RDR getting overshadowed by its sequel, but that's the crux of it.

Including the weaker indie games is great. It has gotten a lot of people to try them out. The stuff that doesn’t need to be here is stuff like Destiny and to a lesser extent Assassin’s Creed Odyssey.

To be honest though, I’d be satisfied with P4G out, 3D World in.

I'm confident that if RDR beats Persona, it's beating GTA5.

Cuphead probably gets like 42-43% on RDR.

I've maintained GTAV > RDR from the start. I've got P4 winning here and GTA winning next round in my bracket.

Also on the Rockstar hierarchy, I think the seeding is the way it is for a reason. RDR1 cane out at the very beginning of the decade and never got a rerelease. Its sequel replaced it in many ways, and GTAV is likely the strongest Rockstar game we’ve seen based on what little data we have on it.

go my gta

I understand why people think gta > persona but after golden sun i need it proven to me.

What more proof do you need? GTAV is the best and most well received game since Vice City, and they've kept the game fresh with GTA online since it came out. It's not losing to RDR in any universe, and P4 is going to lose unless another bulls*** weeaboo rally happens. P4 even being this close to RDR shows how deluded and rabid the Persona fanboys are, voting a game that came out in the 00s as GotD for the '10s

DoomTheGyarados posted...

I understand why people think gta > persona but after golden sun i need it proven to me.

well the main character of GTAV isn't a black guy to my knowledge

GTAV>San Andreas

Golden Sun>P4G

I always had Golden Sun, and when Golden Sun beat Ratchet and Clank by more than San Andreas beat Dead Space it was over. This result feels like the inverse of that.

LeonhartFour posted...

well the main character of GTAV isn't a black guy to my knowledge

One of them is, and I'd argue that all three of them are equally the 'main' character!

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

What more proof do you need? GTAV is the best and most well received game since Vice City, and they've kept the game fresh with GTA online since it came out. It's not losing to RDR in any universe, and P4 is going to lose unless another bulls*** weeaboo rally happens. P4 even being this close to RDR shows how deluded and rabid the Persona fanboys are, voting a game that came out in the 00s as GotD for the '10s

BT you get no more contest takes until next year sit down.

wait...are you suggesting golden sun would beat P4G?

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

What more proof do you need? GTAV is the best and most well received game since Vice City, and they've kept the game fresh with GTA online since it came out. It's not losing to RDR in any universe, and P4 is going to lose unless another bulls*** weeaboo rally happens. P4 even being this close to RDR shows how deluded and rabid the Persona fanboys are, voting a game that came out in the 00s as GotD for the '10s

not at all. san andreas is more loved today compared to GTA v. there's more PS2 nostalgia and GTAv has become the best selling game of all time. it has way more haters. also san andreas wouldn't lose to golden sun today

2010 Golden Sun would, yes.

*Insert Malcolm Tucker time travel rant here*

I have it on good authority that GTAV is indeed one of the best games of the decade.

Top 25 at least.

The lead didn't change overnight. The United States flipped back to RDR (just barely)

davidponte posted...

I have it on good authority that GTAV is indeed one of the best games of the decade.

Top 25 at least.

To be fair, GTAV probably finishes within the top 25 on GameFAQs too.

This match is almost the anglosphere vs. The rest of the world - just South Africa and New Zealand holding out.

This match refuses to move at all.

This is over. Even if Persona comes close to losing the lead, last-minute rallies will save it.

I mean, I don't think it will lose the lead.

But RDR could also rally.

RDR was probably stronger than GTAV in 2015 but the latter has had every reason to go up since then while the former has probably tailed off following RDR2's release. That was my theory behind going GTAV > P4G > RDR anyway.

Persona 4 would definitely be much stronger than P4 Golden.

I like P4 much more than RDR, but I voted RDR.

Its like Ben Simmons winning Rookie of the Year his second year in the NBA.

eaglesarebeasts posted...

Persona 4 would definitely be much stronger than P4 Golden.

I like P4 much more than RDR, but I voted RDR.

But why

Persona 4 Golden is on Vita? I just saw Persona 4 and I voted for it.

I dont think a slight alteration of a 2008 game deserves to be in this contest

eaglesarebeasts posted...

I dont think a slight alteration of a 2008 game deserves to be in this contest

I always find it interesting the different criteria people have for things. I just vote my preferred game each time.

I think a slight alteration of a 2008 game deserves to make it to round three and then lose to GTA. That's my criteria.

P4G is going to be a little weaker because some won’t vote for it out of principle, but let’s be real: this is a Persona 4 proxy. 10k people on here aren’t going to have played P4G or look at it and go “oh yeah, that really good Vita game”. They’ll vote for it because it’s Persona 4.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

I always find it interesting the different criteria people have for things. I just vote my preferred game each time.

That's fine in a standard game contest, but as we saw in the last GotD, a certain subset of voters (SmartVoterFAQS) puts some weight on the impact of the game. I guess not as many as previously thought, given how the half-assed remasters have been doing so far in the contest

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

That's fine in a standard game contest, but as we saw in the last GotD, a certain subset of voters (SmartVoterFAQS) puts some weight on the impact of the game. I guess not as many as previously thought, given how the half-assed remasters have been doing so far in the contest

What others? BoI Rebirth lost (plus OG BoI came out in 2011). RE2 is a remake that borders on a full reimagining. That’s really it.

Lightning Strikes posted...

P4G is going to be a little weaker because some won’t vote for it out of principle, but let’s be real: this is a Persona 4 proxy. 10k people on here aren’t going to have played P4G or look at it and go “oh yeah, that really good Vita game”. They’ll vote for it because it’s Persona 4.

Admittedly Red Dead Redemption might have dropped since last contest. Otherwise the lol 2015 x-stats seem to have predicted this match almost exactly! The adjusted stats in any case.

If RDR and P4 remain constant from 2015 and the stats are correct, GTAV gets 48.5% on SOTC. This would give GTAV plenty of leg room to drop and still narrowly edge out P4. The problem is that we have no idea how to account for any Mario RPG bandwagon effect, and I think the 2015 x-stats have RE4 beating all the MGS games which makes no sense.

Edit: Yep, the adjusted 2015 stats have RE4 hanging 51% on MGS1/3. What was the rationale behind this, considering MGS3 directly outperformed RE4 against Mario RPG?

If Mario RPG overperformed a bunch against MGS3 due to a bandwagon, it's barely any stronger than SOTC to begin with! This would make GTAV/RDR a closer result, leaving GTAV little room to drop. I think GTAV will just barely edge out P4 next round, but it's going to be close.

Lightning Strikes posted...

P4G is going to be a little weaker because some won’t vote for it out of principle, but let’s be real: this is a Persona 4 proxy. 10k people on here aren’t going to have played P4G or look at it and go “oh yeah, that really good Vita game”. They’ll vote for it because it’s Persona 4.

It's a Vita proxy, a Persona 5 proxy and a japanese videogame proxy.

Lightning Strikes posted...

What others? BoI Rebirth lost (plus OG BoI came out in 2011). RE2 is a remake that borders on a full reimagining. That’s really it.

Pokémon?

Nobody cares about the Vita.

Except for Allen since Vita rep is almost certainly the reason P4G is here.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Pokémon?

Oh yeah, forgot about that one sorry. Also a ground-up remake.

Lightning Strikes posted...

What others? BoI Rebirth lost (plus OG BoI came out in 2011). RE2 is a remake that borders on a full reimagining. That’s really it.

RE2 and Pokemon were the others

I mean, does anyone think Pokemon HG/SS will be as strong as Pokemon GSC?

Nostalgia/"it's not the same" is a very strong factor.