Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1344

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1344-east-division-round-2-zero-vs-sonic-the-hedgehog

Remember when Zero used to be this strong?

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We need you now.

Little did we know what pain Sonic was in for that year.

Yu Narukami

Europe gonna keep the cowboys at bay?

I sure hope so, they are true people of culture who know a good waifu simulator when they see one

So much for the #cupset

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Little did we know what pain Sonic was in for that year.

hopefully in for less pain this round!

I'm also hoping to wake up to a comfortable lead tomorrow, but that hasn't worked out the last few days!

lead is now over 300

I'll take it

So does Claire still beat Joker in a re-match?

Because now we have Smash Ultimate and RE2 Remake to consider.

East coast is falling asleep. California is hard for persona. Which is helping it it seems

WhiteLens posted...

So does Claire still beat Joker in a re-match?

Because now we have Smash Ultimate and RE2 Remake to consider.

no chance. Joker is gonna be a force now.

plus claire wasnt even the hottest girl in re2. Ada has her beat.

Not after smash probably.

WhiteLens posted...

So does Claire still beat Joker in a re-match?

Because now we have Smash Ultimate and RE2 Remake to consider.

Joker probably wins if he actually gets a Joker pic, much less Persona 5 getting Smash boosted.

What is the correlation between weeb garbage and rallies. I swear, besides that small Shovel Knight counter rally, every other ally in contest history was for trash. Where are all the rallies for quality games?

Looks like Persona 4 is pulling away comfortably.

Well, now the P4G/RDR match has been at a complete standstill for two hours.

Anyone have any idea what the trends are going to look like?

I wished hourly stats were done on this match, seems close enough to warrant one.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Well, now the P4G/RDR match has been at a complete standstill for two hours.

Anyone have any idea what the trends are going to look like?

Hard to tell. It's very even in North America. P4G is winning in most of Europe but losing in the UK, Europe's largest voting bloc. RDR has a worse board vote so it could rise all day like some other entrants with bad board votes do.

handsomeboy2012 posted...

I wished hourly stats were done on this match, seems close enough to warrant one.

Wish granted.

P4G by the hour:

time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit
21:00 | 52.24% | +161 | +161
22:00 | 51.16% | +53 | +214
23:00 | 49.52% | -18 | +196
00:00 | 50.99% | +32 | +228
01:00 | 50.45% | +14 | +242
02:00 | 54.45% | +115 | +357
03:00 | 47.91% | -44 | +313
04:00 | 50.36% | +7 | +320

Damn, and I thought RDR would win by a landslide. I'm happy though, I do want P4G to win GOTD.

Thanks, doesn't look like there's much of a trend at all

tennisboy213 posted...

Hard to tell. It's very even in North America. P4G is winning in most of Europe but losing in the UK, Europe's largest voting bloc. RDR has a worse board vote so it could rise all day like some other entrants with bad board votes do.

Hmm. Guess it's gonna be another one of those then.

At this point in time, Octopath and Rayman were already making big moves. RDR is kinda spinning its wheels.

I'm very impressed with GTA in a "doesn't look horrible" sense. I think it's good to make the division finals.

Ah well, at least RDR will look good and GTAV should win next round. And not just for my bracket, P4G shouldn't even be here. I am convinced the only reason it is here is to give the Vita a rep, though most voting for it won't have even played it on Vita. It's a straight 2000's proxy.

So is RDR1 actually the weakest Rockstar game here like the seeding suggests? I kind of assumed it would be stronger but everything we've seen suggests that not only is GTAV stronger, but RDR2 probably is as well. Also glad to see that Baba is You isn't turbofodder, I thought it wouldn't be.

KamikazePotato posted...

At this point in time, Octopath and Rayman were already making big moves. RDR is kinda spinning its wheels.

Time for another rally then

I see that match was ruined in the end as expected. Shame i didn't take Xenoblade to win this division though as i might actually get GTA in the final right.

well this should pretty much remove any chance for RDR2 later

Persona 5 is definitely significantly stronger than Persona 4 (and golden might even be weaker due to the remaster stigma), and RDR2 ..uh..should be about the same as 1?

Woke up checked the results. Didn't expected P4 and RDR to be that close. Also who rallied for SK yesterday? I want info.

Safer_777 posted...

Woke up checked the results. Didn't expected P4 and RDR to be that close. Also who rallied for SK yesterday? I want info.

There was a rally on /r/shovelknight which got traction

Then someone posted a rally on /r/octopathtraveler which got stickied, and got traction

Octopath looked like it was going to win then f***ing YACHT CLUB GAMES tweeted the match out and clinched it for SK

Was great

Ah the creators of SK? Okay thanks people. Rallies are fun!

Sharinnegan posted...

Persona 5 is definitely significantly stronger than Persona 4

miss

The rally that occurred ~60 minutes prior to poll closing is very nasty. Octopath Traveler fall for that trick.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

What is the correlation between weeb garbage and rallies. I swear, besides that small Shovel Knight counter rally, every other ally in contest history was for trash. Where are all the rallies for quality games?

Most rallies are either underdog indies or meme votes ala L-Block and Draven (which we haven't had in this contest). What are you talking about?

Persona sure doesn't want to run away with it

Also, GTAV is looking to challenge Three Houses for percentage.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Also, GTAV is looking to challenge Three Houses for percentage.

Maybe my GTA > Three Houses pick wasn't so bad after all. Other than Three Houses losing before it even gets to that point.

GTa is getting annoying with these ridiculous % rise over the course of the day

part of me wants it to beat persona or red dead so it can get a deserved beating by Monado. Needs to be taught a lesson like Golden Sun did to its older brother.

davidponte posted...

Maybe my GTA > Three Houses pick wasn't so bad after all. Other than Three Houses losing before it even gets to that point.

I think I’d take Ori over Cuphead.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

GTa is getting annoying with these ridiculous % rise over the course of the day

part of me wants it to beat persona or red dead so it can get a deserved beating by Monado. Needs to be taught a lesson like Golden Sun did to its older brother.

LordoftheMorons posted...

I think I’d take Ori over Cuphead.

12 hours ago people thought Cuphead was strong enough to beat GTA, and now it's so weak it can't even beat Ori?

davidponte posted...

12 hours ago people thought Cuphead was strong enough to beat GTA, and now it's so weak it can't even beat Ori?

I don’t know about other people, but I certainly wouldn’t have considered taking Cuphead over GTAV!

This GTA result is about what I expected. I know GTA has a tendency to tank in contests, but there's a world of difference between San Andreas losing to RPGs and the stronger GTAV losing to freaking Cuphead.

These GTAV results this contest would look underwhelming if we expected GTAV to be one of the big dogs of the contest like we probably would have without past contest results, but GTA's propensity to choke makes these results look not so bad.

GTAV's performances are an embarrassment to its 1 seed, but I suppose we collectively expected even worse?

GTAV was strong in 2015! Compare these:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6139-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6169-

So this bode well for P4G right?
RDR >> Cuphead?

Raka_Putra posted...

So this bode well for P4G right?
RDR >> Cuphead?

No. If P4 wins, GTA will destroy it.

Yeah this is not looking good at all for P4
I expected more, much more from it

LordoftheMorons posted...

GTAV was strong in 2015! Compare these:

That's an inherently skewed comparison, because Super Mario RPG had built up a major bandwagon by the time it reached Resident Evil 4.

GTAV being fairly strong in '15 was my point precisely. However, plugging Cuphead's current result into the 2015 x-stats gives it 34% on Mario RPG. Cuphead probably does break 30%, but it probably doesn't do THAT well. So GTAV probably dropped a little in strength.

The beauty of Division 4 is that even if you get it wrong, there are so many possibilities for a division winner that it might not affect your bracket that much.

Like not many people have Xenoblade winning anyway.