Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1343

Wildspark posted...

I had Three Houses winning the division too because I didn't know how much people cared about Xenoblade

I just figured 3H was both well received and had, like, all of its voice actors on Twitter who'd probably rally for the game at the drop of a hat. But I don't think they'll get over a fellow, stronger Nintendo JRPG with just that - you're gonna split the rally like that.

are the brackets fixed? why were the two biggest switch games besides BotW on the same division? why were two rockstar games and the two biggest nintendo jrpgs also on the same division? that's too much of a coincidence

UltimaterializerX posted...

You know heroin is an opioid and massively slows the system down instead of speeding it up, right.

You know it makes you feel good right?

Well, I dropped from 11th place to 17th place but I'm still cool being on the leaderboard.

Three Houses beating Xenoblade was imo the sensible pick. Xenoblade simply did not look very good in 2015 and Fire Emblem had more reason to increase since then. Very happy to be wrong!

inchbytes posted...

are the brackets fixed? why were the two biggest switch games besides BotW on the same division? why were two rockstar games and the two biggest nintendo jrpgs also on the same division? that's too much of a coincidence

It's likely the site owner wanted to quarantine all nintendo games in the same place so it's a less nintendo dominated contest.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

sorry but 84% on halo reach is star of the round. Law

Halo Reach is bad and everyone knew BOTW was #1 with a bullet coming into this

charmander6000 posted...

Looking at the guru, Three Houses has the plurality (44%) while GTAV has 27% of brackets. None of RDR, P4G or XBC have more than 10% support.

Xenoblade was massively underrated this contest.

Baffling though as This game was a sleeper hit among Nintendo fans.

After the SWitch release. Its going to go up another few levels. \

This is just a teaser. Xenoblade is gonna be a BEAST in future contests

All those who opposed it will now suffer.

GTA should look damn decent in the end, considering how much it's going to rise from here. I wouldn't take RDR over it.

Xenoblade should definitely be the favorite to win the division at this point, but GTA isn't entirely without a paddle yet.

charmander6000 posted...

None of RDR, P4G or XBC have more than 10% support.

Those are the kinds of picks that win contests.

I feel very good being on the Xenoblade train with yoblazer. If there is any user who you want in your corner for an upset, it's that guy. I don't care what the f*** his all time guru ranking is. He is #1 in my heart. The literal first thing I do every guru contest after lockdown is match up my risks with his. When they match, I do a little dance in my head.

I looked right at that Xenoblade pick, and he and I are in the same boat. You know who else is on there?

Xenoblade Chronicles
(14, 10%)
Ngamer
_SecretSquirrel
Gall
azuarc
JONALEON1
ChichiriMuyo
squexa
yoblazer
raytan7585
SuperNiceDog
SpikeDragon
Advokaiser
UltimaterializerX
HaRRicH

MY f***ING MAN @Gall

Alright these are over, bed time. I'm safe for another round. KH is likely my only bad pick of R2 at this point.

For the record, if you take this poll as being 100% transitive (which you absolutely should not):

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7829-best-of-2019-playstation-4

Then Xenoblade beats Super Mario Odyssey

inchbytes posted...

why were the two biggest switch games besides BotW on the same division? why were two rockstar games and the two biggest nintendo jrpgs also on the same division

Because Allen didn't want the quarterfinals to be nothing but Nintendo

Xenoblade, for me, was simply a counterpick that I thought had good odds. I just had to hope Smash fans might not like the oversaturation of Fire Emblem characters, and that could be enough in the actual match up.

The fact that it looks like it may not matter is a bonus.

GildedFool posted...

You know it makes you feel good right?

Not me personally. I've never taken heroin and never will, but the two times I was prescribed super hardcore pain meds after a surgery I ended up with the worst migraines of my life. I actually thought I was having a stroke, and I do not understand how people get addicted to that crap. Even without the migraines, your motility gets turned off (have fun using the bathroom) and having an orgasm is basically impossible. What's even the point?

It sucks because I had Xenoblade in my initial bracket but the whole board convinced me it was huge.

(not that I'm blaming anyone, I was also convinced when I remembered Shulk being s*** in 2018, but still...)

I know you're all saying Persona is fine, but I think it should be winning first hour updates by more than 17 votes.

oh okay i guess i banked on the wrong xenoblade game to do something

f

I’ll hold off on being impressed until Xenoblade faces something that’s actually somewhat strong instead of OW and a paintball shooter this site doesn’t have a big fan base for (yes I know Splat is popular otherwise. Just don’t believe it’s popular here like how Fortnite isn’t)

ctesjbuvf posted...

I know you're all saying Persona is fine, but I think it should be winning first hour updates by more than 17 votes.

What have you done

RDR rose 7% from the freeze but it was fairly quick. Match should be close but P4G likely wins yes. GTA could take the next one for sure.

Oh, I think RDR will gradually bring the percentage down, but I'm not sure it ever makes a serious charge at actually winning.

Saying "A Vita game" to describe P4G is like calling RE2 "A Playstation 4 game". You all know full well name brand is what people are voting for there.

Goddammit persona

UltimaterializerX posted...

Those are the kinds of picks that win contests.

Pretty much, the board will get you a good bracket, but to win most contests you need to predict at least one major upset correctly.

20 users fell off the Top 50. Matt_J100, FierceDeity0, reideneizer, NGC3372, VioletMassacre, ATF, EarthWake, habadofreit25, metaIslug, rob29, TheMightyPeanut, MicFiend13, marksourman, SerHound, Bossman_Coolguy, Primetime1981, NLMagic, SBAllen and others missed at least one match.

21 users got one wrong but survived. Former second place BobbyEvans, former third place MegatokyoEd, Isiah_Zombie, FearlessMango, Dabrikishaw15, MrZAP17, Jobi1, Kinglicious, KamikazePotato, scaryice, BigK1016, Joelypoely, spiritomolto, Foxxiey, LusterSoldier, LinkMarioSamus, zoharemulator, darklight2222, TVontheRadio and more got 6 points but stay on the Top 50.

1 user scored half points but manage to hang on. Former first place triton6783 is still here despite only getting 4 points.

Congrats to the 8 users who managed to score full points! Current first place Year_of_Luigi, current second place JONALEON1, current third place davidponte, aphorism, Aom, Masamune_6969, Polycosm and one more user managed to get all 8 points!

Also, I was really not expecting GTA/Cuphead to be the most stable match, at least early on. Bracket votes are serious business this contest.

KamikazePotato posted...

What have you done

Well s***

I took Xenoblade to win the division, but idk, I'm still very nervous.

It's hard to tell how much of this performance is Overwatch being antivoted and how much is Xenoblade beasting and the round 1 match is against Splatoon 2, which is untested.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I know you're all saying Persona is fine, but I think it should be winning first hour updates by more than 17 votes.

Yeah, I'm still not comfortable in it winning. Its done better then I expected so far after the board vote, but its not in a safe spot yet. These Western AAAs like RDR tend to do far better once we get out of the first hour.

Ya go my Red Dead

Three Houses could still win, simply because most of these games are relatively untested. I would switch to Xenoblade in my bracket if I could though.

Persona 4 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g)
Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60.
Persona 4 wins with 51.11% of the vote!

For reference.

As I fo to sleep I will leave you with one more thing:

If you think Xenoblade is beasting now, wait until Europe wakes up.

KamikazePotato posted...

Three Houses could still win, simply because most of these games are relatively untested. I would switch to Xenoblade in my bracket if I could though.

This. I also think it might come down to some weird Nintendo hierarchy thing.

So how many cuts does RDR need to make in the power hour for it to be a serious charge at winning

Yeah, Persona is in a lot of trouble.

Persona 4 might be in trouble...

Trend charts:

Time | Smash | ALBW | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 64.59% | 35.41% | 514 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 65.69% | 34.31% | 3486 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 64.39% | 35.61% | 8552 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 61.00% | 39.81% | 3459 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 63.42% | 36.11% | 5940 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 65.03% | 34.97% | 6146 | (17:00-24:00)

Even against Zelda, Smash sucks in Europe!

Time | Spider-Man | Minecraft | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 63.37% | 36.63% | 516 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 60.05% | 39.95% | 3487 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 58.68% | 41.32% | 8553 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 60.61% | 39.39% | 3460 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 56.20% | 44.44% | 5938 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 54.60% | 44.78% | 6146 | (17:00-24:00)

Spider-Man probably suffered the most collateral damage from the rally.

Time | Octopath | Shovel | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 49.22% | 50.78% | 514 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 48.21% | 51.79% | 3485 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 48.66% | 51.34% | 8553 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 52.51% | 47.49% | 3460 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 52.73% | 47.27% | 5947 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 47.20% | 52.80% | 6146 | (17:00-24:00)

Rally time

Time | DMC5 | Odyssey | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 28.79% | 71.21% | 514 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 27.95% | 72.05% | 3485 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 29.78% | 70.22% | 8553 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 32.68% | 67.32% | 3458 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 27.25% | 72.75% | 5956 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 26.73% | 73.27% | 6146 | (17:00-24:00)

Pretty typical Mario trends!

squexa posted...

I took Xenoblade to win the division, but idk, I'm still very nervous.

It's hard to tell how much of this performance is Overwatch being antivoted and how much is Xenoblade beasting and the round 1 match is against Splatoon 2, which is untested.

Why would VOerwatch be antivoted?

This isn't fortnte or COD

Overwatch is somewhat decent. LEts not act like its complete fodder

KamikazePotato posted...

Persona 4 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g)
Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60.
Persona 4 wins with 51.11% of the vote!

For reference.

GTA5 being in the poll has to matter some.

I guess Minecraft would beat Spider-Man on a site with a younger audience? Just how much was Minecraft favored by the rallies?

KamikazePotato posted...

Persona 4 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g)
Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60.
Persona 4 wins with 51.11% of the vote!

For reference.

Thats Vanilla P4.

I'd like to remind people Golden is a Vita game

The only Vita game left in this comp. And we've seen what 3DS games have done. Putting that into perspective. P4G is doing ridiculously well.

I made that 2015 when making my bracket. Thought that Persona 5 probably helped Persona 4 more than RDR2 did RDR, but this being a remake couldn't make me feel safe.

Have you somehow not seen the levels of hatred everything Blizzard has gotten for like the last 6 months or more? They’ve made lots of bad decisions “recently” that got them tons of negative reception. It’s not difficult to just hate them all like Ulti

Team Rocket Elite posted...

I guess Minecraft would beat Spider-Man on a site with a younger audience? Just how much was Minecraft favored by the rallies?

Indie game carryover.

yeah GTAV is cruising now

Does anyone still think Persona is fine

well now I'm getting worried

ctesjbuvf posted...

Does anyone still think Persona is fine

3 straight cuts is generally a trend. It needs to stop the bleeding quick.