Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1343

AC1 posted...

I do not want Octopath Traveler to lose this round. Save it please!. Just 30 minutes left for this round.

It's dead Jim

Octopath with the cut! It's not over yet!

...okay it's still over

ctesjbuvf posted...

I'm looking forward to it as well!

I think my PCA would be a lot better if I finished within a month, two tops. The passion runs out a bit otherwise, even if the key points are the same.

Honestly, what I think both of you could do to speed up the process, and get rid of the fluff, is by going by Day instead of Match.

Like, what is there to say about any of the other three matches today that can't be done in a single sentence?

tgs2 posted...

Shovel Knight seems to be gettimg at least 20-30 extra votes an update. That can add up in dead hours even against Odyssey/BotW if that account is serious about rallying against Mario.

That is not even accounting for theoretical indie banner waving if Cuphead loses tomorrow. Many indie supporters could back Shovel Knight and create another Undertale situation.

It's an exciting theoey to think about.

20-30 votes per update agaisnt odyssey means it gets wallped 65-35 per update instead of 75-25.

SK has no real voacal fanbase or community to put up those sorts of numbers and Odyssey is the worst game because it s amodern Nintendo game.

Againt these clsoe wire to wire matches sure SK could beat all of them. Nay game thats its significnatly weaker to its got 0 chance

Undertale was getting 400-500+ votes per update and from an entire community.

And just like that, the rally is over.

Octopath only needs to cut...134 votes in half an hour. Easy peasy.

Alright hypothetical here for the stats guys, what percentage do you think Cuphead needs at the freeze for you to seriously think, "oh s***, this might already be over for GTA"

davidponte posted...

Alright hypothetical here for the stats guys, what percentage do you think Cuphead needs at the freeze for you to seriously think, "oh s***, this might already be over for GTA"

60%+

KamikazePotato posted...

Good news is that I don't have to hold to my self-imposed bet and give Octopath another chance. Ys it is!

Adjusting today in the X-stats is gonna be fun.

This is probably for the best if you didn't like it the first time around. How far did you get, anyways?

davidponte posted...

Alright hypothetical here for the stats guys, what percentage do you think Cuphead needs at the freeze for you to seriously think, "oh s***, this might already be over for GTA"

60%

davidponte posted...

Alright hypothetical here for the stats guys, what percentage do you think Cuphead needs at the freeze for you to seriously think, "oh s***, this might already be over for GTA"

63%

I am going to be absurdly disappointed if in the first 30 seconds Cuphead does not have like 90%

Damn, 60 seems low.

I was half expecting it to actually be higher than that in reality.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

This is probably for the best if you didn't like it the first time around. How far did you get, anyways?

I did everyone's Chapter 1 stories, did one or two of the Chapter 2 stories, got tired of the formula, and then got annoyed that I couldn't change my protagonist to Primrose who was the only character I legitimately liked.

LeonhartFour posted...

60%+

This is assuming no rallies right?

60% at the freeze would be overkill. I'd say 56-57

Bare in mind how f***ing weak Baba is You is

GTA might be able to come back at a 55-45 but anything over its toast.

60/40 is hard to recover from, even with low vote totals!

Cuphead needs to be pretty far ahead because it's going to drop a lot and GTA is going to rise a lot.

I still cant get over the fact that the most influential horror game of this decade Amnesia wasnt in this contest at all.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

This is assuming no rallies right?

60% at the freeze would be overkill. I'd say 56-57

Bare in mind how f***ing weak Baba is You is

GTA might be able to come back at a 55-45 but anything over its toast.

If Cuphead/GTAV follows Cuphead/XCom2 or GTAV/Baba trends then Cuphead needs 59% just to keep it even.

Ok so what happens in the case of a Draw?

ShortReplies posted...

I still cant get over the fact that the most influential horror game of this decade Amnesia wasnt in this contest at all.

Everyone forgot about it.

davidponte posted...

Alright hypothetical here for the stats guys, what percentage do you think Cuphead needs at the freeze for you to seriously think, "oh s***, this might already be over for GTA"

Any%

The saving grace of GTA5's board vote is that it will have bracket votes out the wazoo. I could see its board vote not being as anemic as usual thanks to that.

The thing is most people that love Shovel Knight also love Nintendo games. The rally against Octopath worked because it was really close and they are very different games. Most of the people that follow Yacht Club games also probably follow Nintendo. A rally against Odyssey won't do s***.

ShortReplies posted...

I still cant get over the fact that the most influential horror game of this decade Amnesia wasnt in this contest at all.

You might as well say the same about QWOP, which invented an entire genre of successful youtube-bait games

Oxbridge posted...

Everyone forgot about it.

Sad, is there any FPS horror game that you cannot fight back in this bracket at all? just one! its a sub-genre could use one representative and SOMA or Amnesia would be good ones. Amnesia preferably since it came first.

Oxbridge posted...

Everyone forgot about it.

I see what you did there.

Well played.

KamikazePotato posted...

You might as well say the same about QWOP, which invented an entire genre of successful youtube-bait games

QWOP is 2008.

xp1337 posted...

Well, guess this is about to be another contest I can write off as having zero interest in. My interest in them has been dying a slow death ever since L-Block and the ensuing slew of gimmick contests that followed. OG Game of the Decade was the last one I enjoyed. BGE 2015 was looking to be fantastic too until that one crashed and became one of the biggest disappointments for me so I was already starting from a pretty bad place.

You make this same post every year dude

And it's true every year!

Can a draw result occur?

The real answer is 65%, at least.

Cuphead dropped 6% from the freeze in round 1. GTA rose 8%. But those were matches that were never in doubt. This one is going to have a huuuuuge swing.

What we should have nommed is Cookie Clicker.

xp1337 posted...

Well, guess this is about to be another contest I can write off as having zero interest in. My interest in them has been dying a slow death ever since L-Block and the ensuing slew of gimmick contests that followed. OG Game of the Decade was the last one I enjoyed. BGE 2015 was looking to be fantastic too until that one crashed and became one of the biggest disappointments for me so I was already starting from a pretty bad place.

I can probably put caring about contests behind me at this point given it's been literally a decade since there's been one I could enjoy.

To be fair, small rallies like this barely make a dent in the stats.

Im honestly surprised SOMA didn't make it even as a 16 seed. There was a bunch of good WoM for it.

ShortReplies posted...

Can a draw result occur?

No, the match would continue until someone won.

So Yacht Club were the big dick devs all along

SOMA had some good word-of-mouth but wasn't anywhere near as successful as Amnesia. It wasn't youtube-bait-y enough.

Guess the tweets have a pretty short decay time. Good to know.

the most influential horror game of the decade is five nights at freddy’s

MoogleKupo141 posted...

the most influential horror game of the decade is five nights at freddy’s

Real talk, the only game that could have challenged Undertale in its era of prime popularity is Five Night at Freddy's

Melee made a valiant effort but it's got nothing on FNAF, that s*** was EVERYWHERE

Rallies are fine if the most they can do is add some variance to close matches

MoogleKupo141 posted...

the most influential horror game of the decade is five nights at freddy’s

Damn forgot about this one

MoogleKupo141 posted...

the most influential horror game of the decade is five nights at freddy’s

Just look at how much it influenced the Banana Splits.

Lightning Strikes posted...

So Yacht Club were the big dick devs all along

Hey thanks for the INSIDE rec! That game is really good and I do not regret playing it at all.

But that ending is, um... Yeah. That definitely happened.

aww dumb what happened!

GildedFool posted...

What we should have nommed is Cookie Clicker.

Speaking of which, Flappy Bird was robbed.

Pokemon GO is the real snub

were any of the mario maker games or 3D World even close to get into this contest? i'm surprised 3d world didn't make it considering it's had great word of mouth in recent years

Temple Run was snubbed