Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1342
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Leonhart4 posted... Not what anyone is actually arguing. We like using accurate data to make predictions in future contests, as well as seeing how all the entrants stack up against each other. Not the same thing as saying it should be as predictable as possible. It's also interesting, because we have historical data, to see how this changes over time. If we ran the exact same contest from 2002 again, we might get the same final result of Link winning but we wouldn't get the same outcomes by the same percentages in all 63 (or however many) matches. Actually, that WOULD kind of be neat...20th Anniversary Throwback Character Battle... "That was unnecessarily dramatic". - NY Mets motto (courtesy of InnerTubeHero) |
KamikazePotato posted... Several thoughts: octo was a good game. But that was it. Good. Not great or spectacular. jsut good and a nice throwback. But not memorable whatsoever. |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Tell us how to factor in rallies during the bracket making phase, wise one. Games that have dedicated fanbases despite not being especially mainstream. Octopath Traveler, Bloodborne, Xenoblade etc. are good contenders. Just because you didn't predict it doesn't mean it's impossible to see coming. Hell, I voted for Ori and the Blind Forest winning the upset against Dragon Age Inquisition because I knew it had a rabid fanbase that would turn out. I also have Witcher 3 making it all the way to second place because I know its fans are obsessed and will rally for it when the chips are down. I might be wrong on that accord, but I'll accept that I made a wrong prediction and if the Galaxy 2 fanbase or whatever comes together to pull it ahead I'll accept that as their fans being more dedicated and not some unacceptable statistical anomaly. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) (edited 4/14/2020 11:01:22 AM) |
Heropon_Riki posted... Games that have dedicated fanbases despite not being especially mainstream. Octopath Traveler, Bloodborne, Xenoblade etc. are good contenders. Just because you didn't predict it doesn't mean it's impossible to see coming. Hell, I voted for Ori and the Blind Forest winning the upset against Dragon Age Inquisition because I knew it had a rabid fanbase that would turn out. Like half the games in the bracket correspond to that description. If it's a match between Fire Emblem and Xenoblade, for example, how do I predict which one will get the bigger rally? |
People follow this contest through the decades for various reasons. Some people follow it because they want to cheer on their favorites and hope for wacky upsets. That's fine. But most people in the stats topic like ZeldaTPLink follow it because its a prediction game, basically using past results to try to extrapolate future results, factoring in trends and stuff like that. If rallies can spontaneously happen, what's even the point of any of the stats discussion we have here? And contests without rallies still take a lot of skill to predict and people treat prediction like a game. There's a reason why some of our top bracketmakers here like Yoblazer can consistently do so well since they often see trends that the rest of us overlooked. Having rallies and injecting huge amounts of variability reduces a lot of the skill involved. Raytan won the 2013 Guru by taking Samus > Mario (which is sort of vindicated in 2018, but is still considered an absurd pick in 2013) and won because a bunch of rally induced randomness not even related to Samus and Mario happened. I don't want to take anything away from Raytan's win, but it's a less impressive win to me than say Dr Football's 2010 Guru victory where he accurately predicted a couple big upsets like Charizard's run and Snake > Sephiroth that were entirely reasonable from the bracket making period but just that nobody dared to take them. congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Like half the games in the bracket correspond to that description. It's called a prediction dude. Which one do you think has a more dedicated following? The bracket is interesting because you have to make those calls. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
I
think your mistake is that you're thinking of rallies as a specific
event that takes place rarely only for specific games. Pretty much every
game in this contest is going to have people going to reddit and
gamefaqs boards to tell their fanbases to vote for it. The question is
which fanbases are active and will notice and heed those calls to
action. And that depends on which games people are dedicated to. When
Xenoblade faces Fire Emblem, both fanbases are going to be rallying
supporters to vote for it. The game with more dedicated fans will get
the bigger rally. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
Heropon_Riki posted... It's called a prediction dude. Which one do you think has a more dedicated following? The bracket is interesting because you have to make those calls. I don't think there is a direct correlation between how dedicated the fanbase is and the size of a rally. Many attempts in reddits with huge communities have been attempted in recent contests, and they simply did not work. You are trying to predict the psychology of a speficic subset of people in a specific site, and things such as whether a mod will ban the rally, ignore it or pin it, or whether people will up vote or not, or whether the guy who made the rally will make some bot for twitter. Again, the burder of proof is with you to provide us a method that can explain, for example, why Bloodborne got a sizable rally this round while something like Monster Hunter did not. |
Heropon_Riki posted... I think your mistake is that you're thinking of rallies as a specific event that takes place rarely only for specific games. That's exactly what rallies are, as illustrated by every rally attempted that worked or failed in the last 8 years. They are lightning in a bottle. They depend on a huge number of variables that are impossible to predict. (edited 4/14/2020 11:09:13 AM) |
there is some luck involved in getting a rally topic to gain traction on reddit, yes it does depend on community size and disposition also, as i said before, but luck does play a role too. maybe you happen to put up the rally at a time when the right people who would care about it are around, and there arent other topics trending too highly to bury your rally, etc..either way theres too many variables to be absolute sure it will work. however, once a rally works once, it is more likely to work again at the same place. this is how undertale and draven started snowballing after all. |
Can't believe Octopath's gonna win two matches. This is f***ing awesome. Granted, a shame it's against Undertale and Shovel Knight. I would've voted Shovel Knight over most other games in this bracket, and even though I haven't really played Undertale I'd probably still vote it over a good chunk of stuff in the bracket. But Octopath is a big favorite of mine, so I'm happy it's doing well after I expected it to lose by a decent margin in Round 1. Current Screenshot Let's Play: Robopon Sun - https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3915539 --- https://mega64.net/ |
ZeldaTPLink posted... You are trying to predict the psychology of a speficic subset of people in a specific site This is exactly what the contest is already, even without rallies. Yeah, you're going to have to predict how different fanbases react to calls for rallies. Which fanbases are going to say "Hell yeah, this game should be game of the decade and deserves more exposure!" and which fanbases say "f*** off, who gives a s***, I'm deleting this post." It is pretty chaotic, and requires a galaxy brain to predict every possible thing that could happen in this contest. And that's interesting, and fun. Every upset will be predicted by some people, but most likely nobody has enough knowledge of every fanbase and every corner of the internet to predict everything. At the end of the day, I want the contest to be chaotic and full of upsets and interesting stories. You want the contest to rigidly define the tastes of specifically the regular gamefaqs userbase. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
Do you know why Octopath has a bigger rally than SK? It's because the mod of the Octopath redddit decided to pin the rally, while the one from SK didn't. That's it. The result is being decided by what goes in the head of one specific mod. It's not the behavior of the masses that you are trying to predict, it's something as random as the behavior of one person, and one that you don't know. |
Heropon_Riki posted... This is exactly what the contest is already, even without rallies. I feel like there's a difference between predicting "Oh Witcher 3 got a Netflix series and the game grew a lot since 2015. I think it's stronger than Skyrim now" and predicting "I got a feeling that the mod of the OT subreddit will pin a rally thread for OT, while the SK subreddit won't". congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru |
Heropon_Riki posted... "There was a rally," is not an interesting story. Not when it happens to a big game or a small game. It says nothing about the industry, this site or any other community. This rally doesn't say OT is more popular or that it's fans are more engaged. It says the OT reddit mods stickied a rally. Woo? |
In the perfect scenario rallying would not exist because every poll would be answered by every person in existence. Since we can't do that we have to limit the voting pool to a certain site with certain demographics. As long as the voting pool is the same for every match, we can still have a decent contest. But that's the key. Once a particular match becomes something that includes outside participants that don't vote in other polls, the data doesn't fit with the rest. |
@UltimaterializerX All right t hanks. So rally help then. So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
I
get the frustrations of people wanting to see "legit" stats but to me
yes factoring in the possibility of rallies is part of the prediction
game. It would be for general bracketmakers too, or at least those who
don't have extensive knowledge of past contests. I made an account on this site solely to predict the 2009 games contest because I was looking forward to it so much. I made picks that would seem nonsensical to much of the board like Perfect Dark taking 1st in R1, Half-Life 2 beating Twilight Princess, and San Andreas escaping its division. I wasn't at all in the know about what the bracket favorites were since I didn't post in the forums until the day of FFVII's match (yes I remember that). Many if not most are going to be in a similar position to me in that contest. To me and maybe even most people filling in brackets, the name of the game is predicting popularity. Rallies do count for that! But I can't say it was fun watching the Draven, Undertale, and Melee rallies wreak havoc on the 2013 and 2015 contests, so I feel the pain of those who don't like rallies. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
So
what you're saying is, one of the mods that saw the Octopath Traveler
thread on reddit agreed it should be GotD and decided to pin it. Where
as none of the Shovel Knight mods agreed with the SK post and let it
die. Or perhaps SK's community is just less active so no moderator even
was on to see it in the first place. I mean you're still dealing with
stastistics here but I'd argue games with a more active community and
more enthusiastic fans are more likely to get a rally than games that
don't. And that's what happened here. Octopath Traveler fans from around the internet banding together to give their game an upset is still a more interesting story than "Shovel Knight had better sales, and is on more platforms, so it won." "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
LinkMarioSamus posted... I get the frustrations of people wanting to see "legit" stats but to me yes factoring in the possibility of rallies is part of the prediction game. It would be for general bracketmakers too, or at least those who don't have extensive knowledge of past contests. This is exactly my point, thank you for making it more succinctly than I'm able to. (Writing was never my strong suit.) It's impossible to 100% predict rallies but they still factor into statistics and aren't just a case of random chance. Games are only going to get rallies if lots of people care about them, and failing to take into account dedicated cult followings is a failure of your prediction, not a random chance screwing you over. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
Yes lets predict the unpredictable. There goes contest. lol I have no signature |
As you're all arguing about this in circles, Shovel Knight is mounting a comeback. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... As you're all arguing about this in circles, Shovel Knight is mounting a comeback. Well, I did say every game is likely going to have multiple attempts at rallies around the internet. Maybe one for Shovel Knight took hold too, or maybe it's just genuinely more popular and is going to counteract the OT rally. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
KamikazePotato posted... As you're all arguing about this in circles, Shovel Knight is mounting a comeback. mount me shovel knight |
Heropon_Riki posted... It's impossible to 100% predict rallies but they still factor into statistics and aren't just a case of random chance. Games are only going to get rallies if lots of people care about them, and failing to take into account dedicated cult followings is a failure of your prediction, not a random chance screwing you over.Sure. Lots of people are fans of "L Block". Uh huh. Every game in the bracket got enough nominations to make the bracket. They all have a community and following of some size. You know what else only happens to a game if "lots of people care about them?" People vote for them. |
Oh boy, this conversation again. Current Screenshot Let's Play: Robopon Sun - https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3915539 --- https://mega64.net/ |
Very
glad I left and missed everyone arguing against one random guy about
what we should and shouldn't value in contests, because clearly that's
not our own decision to make. Anyway, is Shovel Knight making a comeback or has it just been this close for the last hour or so? The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. |
davidponte posted... Very glad I left and missed everyone arguing against one random guy about what we should and shouldn't value in contests, because clearly that's not our own decision to make. Definitely getting closer. Octopath was up around 160-170 not too long ago. |
It is a comeback. Not sure how long it will last, though. |
Heropon_Riki posted... This is exactly my point, thank you for making it more succinctly than I'm able to. (Writing was never my strong suit.) Yeah like I didn't know anything about League of Legends before 2013 and had never even heard of Undertale before 2015. In the latter case I just didn't realize that the game had practically viral popularity and that everyone was talking about it, which sounds like the perfect candidate to catch a rally and "ruin" our small contest like that. The game's fans just wanted to put it on the map, and they got their wish. As far as I could tell people were still talking about Undertale a lot in 2018, which I imagine is the reason the game has representation in Smash now. If you hold Undertale's match even six months before it probably still beast Octopath Traveller and probably even beats Shovel Knight. But it seems the game had its time in the sun. That's fine, it's on me for not knowing better. I also get the feeling Undertale became representative of the infiltration of SJWs into gaming, which is about as unfortunate as it gets. We could have discussions on that all day and most would probably prefer not to bring up politics, although it's ridiculous that EVERYTHING has to get wrapped up in politics now for the flimsiest of reasons, whether it's discussion on film franchises or even pandemic response. Ugh. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
davidponte posted... Very glad I left and missed everyone arguing against one random guy about what we should and shouldn't value in contests, because clearly that's not our own decision to make. Yeah, you're right. I'm looking at the clock and realizing I wasted way too much time on what essentially boils down to different ideas of what's fun. This site man, it draws you right in to its toxicity. >_< I think I'm just gonna let that argument lie and go back to analyzing the actual results and predictions of the contest. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) (edited 4/14/2020 12:04:31 PM) |
Shovel Knight has cut 80 votes off of October's peak lead. To make this more interesting for me, I'll use this match to decide which game I play next. I'm in the mood for a JRPG so if Octopath holds on I'll give it a second chance. If not, I'll try out Ys. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
LinkMarioSamus posted... I also get the feeling Undertale became representative of the infiltration of SJWs into gaming, which is about as unfortunate as it gets. We could have discussions on that all day and most would probably prefer not to bring up politics, although it's ridiculous that EVERYTHING has to get wrapped up in politics now for the flimsiest of reasons, whether it's discussion on film franchises or even pandemic response. Ugh. I feel like things got heated enough just arguing about whether rallies are fun. Let's not open that can of worms.. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
Oh s*** we may be back to having a match here. This is definitely doable given 5 hours and Octopath running out of steam. The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. |
Got damn, apparently Shovel Knight isn't a fan of Reddit either. The music was thud-like. The music was... thud-like. |
Octopath Traveler by the hour: time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit 21:00 | 48.21% | -125 | -125 22:00 | 48.29% | -80 | -205 23:00 | 48.12% | -68 | -273 00:00 | 47.98% | -67 | -340 01:00 | 51.18% | +35 | -305 02:00 | 48.05% | -49 | -354 03:00 | 51.76% | +39 | -315 04:00 | 52.77% | +50 | -265 05:00 | 52.35% | +36 | -229 06:00 | 53.58% | +49 | -180 07:00 | 54.88% | +78 | -102 08:00 | 52.47% | +46 | -56 09:00 | 50.51% | +10 | -46 10:00 | 52.15% | +46 | 0 11:00 | 54.88% | +110 | +110 12:00 | 51.69% | +35 | +145 13:00 | 50.59% | +11 | +156 14:00 | 49.48% | -9 | +147 15:00 | 47.08% | -42 | +105 Best hour of the match for Shovel Knight. Could we be in for a great finish? (edited 4/14/2020 1:03:22 PM) |
Shovel Knight the true hero of the people I might actually play it as a tribute if it pulls this off |
The problem is that Undertale's rallies in particular do open that can of worms. I'll shut it right now. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
I
am 3 points from first, but going to miss 2 today. What's annoying is I
made my picks quickly and was going to go back and fine tune it and
never got around to it. Had I done that I surely would have picked link
between worlds in round 1, "maybe" octopath, and who knows what else. Guess who I am. (edited 4/14/2020 12:11:21 PM) |
Big cut for Shovel Knight. Lead is under 100 now. |
Leonhart4 posted... Shovel Knight the true hero of the people I'm adding it to the wishlist as we speak. The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. |
100 vote barrier broken! |
Is
Octopath a good game? It seemed like on the surface it was a call back
to classic JRPGs, and the art style is really pretty. I heard from a
friend that he got bored really early in (second or third "character"
IIRC). "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1 lol xstats |
I
think the talking point of "we want accurate information for predicting
future contests" is misleading. We want accurate information for
understanding where we as GameFAQs-minded people are. That will always
shift over time, but if nobody here likes LoL then we don't feel
represented when Draven rushes it's way from another site to a
championship. Predicting future contests better isn't the pressing
matter for me there. Abd if rallies are better, somebody build a bracket based around the most rally-capable games and we'll see how exciting that is. Seed it and set the matches up. O P E R A T I O N O U S T : Nominate SHEIK! https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/ssb/images/0/0d/Sheik-Victory3-SSB4.png |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Is Octopath a good game? It seemed like on the surface it was a call back to classic JRPGs, and the art style is really pretty. I heard from a friend that he got bored really early in (second or third "character" IIRC). What I've heard from friends playing is that it's good, but gets repetitive playing all parts. I'd like to play it, but I haven't prioritized it. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
HaRRicH posted... I think the talking point of "we want accurate information for predicting future contests" is misleading. We want accurate information for understanding where we as GameFAQs-minded people are. That will always shift over time, but if nobody here likes LoL then we don't feel represented when Draven rushes it's way from another site to a championship. Predicting future contests better isn't the pressing matter for me there. Yeah, honestly, contests are so far apart nowadays that the numbers aren't useful for more than just a general range of popularity when it comes to predicting future contests. (edited 4/14/2020 12:14:48 PM) |
"Oh, you have multiple playable characters Octopath? Tell me more." --a bunch of angry knights O P E R A T I O N O U S T : Nominate SHEIK! https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/ssb/images/0/0d/Sheik-Victory3-SSB4.png |
HaRRicH posted... "Oh, you have multiple playable characters Octopath? Tell me more." LOL, best post of the match. The music was thud-like. The music was... thud-like. |
This
looks consistent enough that I'd be surprised if Shovel Knight isn't
making the comeback at this point. But we'll see. Trends are not as
consistent as they used to be. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
Good
to see Shovel Knight pushing through here. It legitimately is one of
the best games I played this decade, definitely top 10, probably top 5 "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1 lol xstats |
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